Name: 政府將關閉社會安全局（數學證明瞭）！ (The Government Will Shut Down Social Security (And The Math Proves It))
Uploaded: 2026-01-02T18:20:49.000Z
Duration: 14 min 1 s

基礎被動語態

情態助動詞 B1

情態副詞

The cost of living lately has been rising so fast that the middle class has been shrinking.

最近生活成本漲太快，中產階級一直在縮小。

But this plan is going to entirely crush the middle class.

但這個計畫會徹底壓垮中產階級。

Even if you spent your entire life paying payroll taxes, you are not going to receive your Social Security benefits.

就算你一輩子都在繳薪資稅，你也領不到社會安全福利。

I know that this sounds like an exaggeration, but

我知道這聽起來有點誇張，但是

the the national debt has grown so big that the US Government right now is forced to sacrifice the Social Security Trust fund to continue making the interest payment on that national debt.

國債已經大到美國政府現在被迫犧牲社會安全信託基金，才能繼續支付國債的利息。

And if you think that's an exaggeration, watch this video till the end and you will be convinced.

如果你覺得這也是誇張，那就把這支影片看到最後，你就會信服了。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，就給這支影片一個讚，我們馬上開始吧！

The Social Security Trust fund receives money from taxes and makes the payments to the retirees.

社會安全信託基金從稅收中收取資金，並支付給退休人員。

And those payments must be be indexed every single year base of inflation.

而且這些給付每年都必須根據通貨膨脹進行指數化。

There is something called cola, the cost of living.

有個東西叫做cola，也就是生活成本調整。

The higher the inflation is, the higher will be the cost of living.

通貨膨脹越高，生活成本就越高。

And if those dollars are not adjusted every single year base of inflation, then those payments will worth nothing.

如果這些美元沒有每年根據通貨膨脹調整，那麼這些給付就一文不值了。

And every single dollar that it receives from taxes must be invested in the US Treasuries.

而且它從稅收中收到的每一塊錢都必須投資於美國國庫券。

This is the only investment that the Social Security Trust fund can possibly make for.

這是社會安全信託基金唯一能做的投資。

This is not the best investment in the market.

Last year, for example, the S&P 500 grown by about 18% while the US yields were about 4%.

舉例來說，去年S&P 500上漲了約18%，而美國的收益率約為4%。

So clearly it would be far better if the trust fund has invested in the stock market.

所以很明顯，如果信託基金投資於股票市場，會好得多。

But because it's a trust fund and it must ensure that it's investing in the safest investment possible and it's very liquid and it means that it can easily sell those investments in case if it needs that.

但是因為它是信託基金，必須確保它的投資是最安全的，而且流動性很高，這表示如果需要的話，它可以輕鬆賣掉那些投資。

That's why it can be investing in the stock market.

這就是為什麼它可以投資於股票市場。

Yes, the stock market usually does far better than the yields on the US Treasuries.

沒錯，股票市場的表現通常遠優於美國國庫券的收益率。

treasuries, you know for a fact that you're receiving your exact yields.

國庫券，你確切知道你會收到你的收益。

And secondly, in case, if you need to sell those investments, you can easily do that.

還有，如果你需要賣掉那些投資，你可以輕鬆做到。

You can't tell to the retirees that you will not be receiving your Social Security benefits just because the market is down and we can't be selling those investments.

你不能跟退休人員說，因為股市下跌，我們不能賣掉那些投資，所以你領不到社會安全福利。

While this system is not ideal, it works only because the yields on the US Treasuries will always be higher than the cost of living or cost of inflation.

雖然這個系統不完美，但它之所以可行，是因為美國國庫券的收益率總是會高於生活成本或通貨膨脹的成本。

treasury yields are about 4.5% while the COLA is about 3%, then the Social Security Trust Fund is receiving more money from those yields than it's adjusting based on the cost of living or inflation.

國庫券的收益率約為 4.5%，而生活成本調整 (COLA) 約為 3%，那麼社會安全信託基金從這些收益率獲得的資金，會比根據生活成本或通貨膨脹調整的金額還多。

The only way that this system will not work is if the system is flipped.

這個系統唯一會失效的情況，就是當這個系統被顛倒過來的時候。

If inflation is 5% while you are receiving 3% on your yields, then you have to increase the Social Security payments by 5% while while your income from those yields are going down.

如果通貨膨脹是 5%，而你的收益率是 3%，那麼你必須將社會安全給付增加 5%，同時你的收益率收入卻在下降。

Ideally, that should never happen because investors will always require a higher yield on the US Treasuries than inflation.

理論上，這種情況應該永遠不會發生，因為投資人總是會要求美國國庫券的收益率高於通貨膨脹率。

If inflation is 3%, then investors are not going to invest in the US Treasuries.

如果通貨膨脹是 3%，那麼投資人就不會投資美國國庫券。

If the US government is not going to offer a rate that is higher than 3% at least 4% because you want your money to continue growing.

如果美國政府不提供至少 4% 的利率，高於 3%，因為你希望你的錢持續增長。

But what if we artificially lower down the yield on the US Treasuries?

但如果我們人為地降低美國國庫券的收益率呢？

理論上，這種情況不應該發生。

The Federal Reserve has already started the quantitative easing.

聯邦準備理事會已經開始量化寬鬆。

Quantitative easing is the Federal Reserve printing money and buying the US Treasuries to artificially bring down the yields on the US Treasuries.

量化寬鬆就是聯邦準備理事會印鈔票，然後購買美國國庫券，人為地壓低美國國庫券的收益率。

And that means that the Social Security will start receiving a lot less from their investments.

這意味著社會安全基金將從他們的投資中獲得少得多的收益。

On the other side, Quantitative easing increases the supply of money, which means that it is going to increase inflation, which means that it is going to increase the cost of living.

另一方面，量化寬鬆增加了貨幣供應量，這意味著它將導致通貨膨脹上升，也就是說，生活成本將會增加。

So we are headed into a situation where the cost of living is going to rise while the income on the US Treasuries are going to fall.

所以我們正走向一個生活成本將會上升，而美國國庫券的收益率將會下降的局面。

Inflation last year is going to be about 2.7 to 3%.

去年通貨膨脹率大約是 2.7% 到 3%。

We still don't have the final numbers, but it's going to be around that.

我們還沒有最終數字，但大概就是這個範圍。

While the return on investment that the Social Security Trust Fund made from their investments is about 2.6%.

另一方面，社會安全信託基金的投資回報率大約是 2.6%。

So artificially lowering down the US treasury yields is going to destroy the Social Security Trust Fund.

所以人為地壓低美國國庫券的收益率，將會摧毀社會安全信託基金。

That is not going to happen overnight because the trust fund has about $2.7 trillion in asset.

這件事不會一夜之間發生，因為信託基金大約有 2.7 兆美元的資產。

But if that is going to become a trend, then for a fact it is going to run out of money.

但如果這成為一種趨勢，那麼事實上它就會花光錢。

You don't have to be a genius to understand that if your expenses are rising while your income is falling down over time, you will find yourself in a situation where you will be spending far more than you're earning and it's a matter of time before you will go bankrupt.

你不需要是個天才，就能明白如果你的開銷不斷增加，而你的收入卻隨著時間下降，你就會發現自己入不敷出，遲早會破產。

Historically, the Social Security Trust Fund never faced anything like that.

歷史上，社會安全信託基金從未面臨過這種情況。

Because if you go back to 1960s and 70s, the US Treasuries offered a very high yield even though that inflation time to time, especially 1970s, were extremely high.

因為如果你回到 1960 年代和 70 年代，即使當時通貨膨脹時高時低，尤其是在 70 年代，美國國庫券的收益率仍然非常高。

The yields offered a very high return because the interest rates were extremely high.

當時的收益率提供非常高的回報，因為利率非常高。

And back in the days, the Federal Reserve did not have something called quantitative easing.

而在當時，聯準會還沒有所謂的量化寬鬆。

So if the Federal Reserve increased the interest rates to about 12%, the yields on the US debt would be around 12%.

所以如果聯準會將利率提高到大約 12%，美國國債的收益率就會接近 12%。

And that's how the Social Security Trust Fund over time generated a lot of money by investing in the US Treasuries.

這就是社會安全信託基金隨著時間的推移，透過投資美國國庫券賺取了大量資金。

Starting after the 2008 financial crisis, the the interest rates or the effective interest rates were extremely low.

從 2008 年金融危機之後開始，利率或實際利率都非常低。

But during this period, inflation was also extremely low.

但這段期間，通貨膨脹也極低。

So while the Social Security Trust Fund did not make or generate a lot of money from their investments, it didn't adjust its payments to the retirees because the cost of living wasn't actually rising at all.

所以，雖然社會安全信託基金從他們的投資中沒有賺取或產生大量資金，但由於生活成本實際上並沒有上漲，所以他們也沒有調整退休人員的給付。

Some of these years, inflation or the cost of living, was literally zero percent.

其中有些年份，通貨膨脹或生活成本實際上是零趴。

And for the first time ever, starting from 2025, we're entering into a completely new era.

而且，從 2025 年開始，我們將進入一個全新的時代，這是前所未有的。

An era where interest rates are going to be very low.

And there is also going to be quantitative easing, which means that the yields are going to be very low moving forward.

而且還會有量化寬鬆，這意味著未來的收益率會非常低。

At the same time, there is going to be high inflation.

We already have high inflation and inflation is not fixed yet.

我們已經面臨高通膨，而且通膨還沒有解決。

And if you start quantitative easing, it is not a surprise that inflation will get out of control.

而且，如果你們開始量化寬鬆，通貨膨脹失控也不是什麼驚訝的事。

Even if it does not rises to 4 or 5% and it stays at around 3% while the yields on the US treasuries will go down below 3%, then mathematically you will still go out of business.

即使通膨沒有漲到 4% 或 5%，而是維持在 3% 左右，而美國國庫券的收益率會降到 3% 以下，那麼從數學上來說，你們還是會倒閉。

But historically we have already seen that massive quantitative easing rises inflation way above 3%.

但歷史上我們已經看到，大規模的量化寬鬆會讓通膨遠高於 3%。

But if we know that is a problem, why would we do that?

但如果我們知道這是個問題，為什麼還要這麼做？

Why would the government do something like that and purposely destroy the Social Security Trust fund?

政府為什麼要做這種事，故意摧毀社會安全信託基金？

I have recently launched the Investing Academy where you can learn step by step to start investing, even if you know nothing about investing.

我最近推出了「投資學院」，即使你對投資一無所知，也能一步一步學習如何開始投資。

And it's also a community of people, of like minded people who are also starting investing and want to achieve financial freedom.

這裡還有一個社群，都是志同道合的人，他們也正在開始投資，並希望實現財務自由。

So if you want to access the entire course for free and meet like minded people, you can do that by checking the first link in the description of this video.

所以，如果你想免費獲得整個課程，並認識志同道合的朋友，可以透過查看這個影片說明中的第一個連結來做到。

Now this community is going to become a paid community very soon.

現在這個社群很快就會變成付費社群了。

So if you want to join while it's free, then use the first link in the description.

所以如果你想在免費時加入，就使用說明中的第一個連結。

The US national debt is about to cross $40 trillion this year.

美國的國債今年就要突破 40 兆美元了。

So a single percentage in interest payment is $400 billion.

所以光是一個百分點的利息支付就是 4000 億美元。

By the end of the year or next year, it will cross $50 trillion.

到今年底或明年，就會突破 50 兆美元。

So a single percentage in interest payments will be half a trillion dollars.

所以光是一個百分點的利息支付，就會是 5000 億美元。

So if the government is making 3% in interest payment, that's $1.5 trillion.

所以如果政府支付 3% 的利息，那就是 1.5 兆美元。

If the yields rise to 4%, that's $2 trillion.

如果收益率上升到 4%，那就是 2 兆美元。

If they rise to 5%, that's about $2.5 trillion.

如果上升到 5%，大約是 2.5 兆美元。

And tax revenues are obviously are not rising that fast.

而且稅收顯然沒有那麼快增長。

So either the government is going to allocate half of its budget to into interest payments, if not the entire budget, or they have to artificially bring down the yields on the US Treasuries.

所以政府要嘛就是把一半的預算撥給利息支付，甚至全部預算，不然就是得想辦法壓低美國國庫券的收益率。

But if you bring down the yields on the US Treasuries, you are destroying the Social Security Trust fund.

但如果你壓低美國國庫券的收益率，你就等於摧毀了社會安全信託基金。

And based on this trend, it seems like the government has already decided that it's going to sacrifice the Social Security Trust Fund.

照這個趨勢來看，政府似乎已經決定要犧牲社會安全信託基金了。

But the trust fund has $2.7 trillion in assets.

但這個信託基金有 2.7 兆美元的資產。

Well, since 1960s and 70s, the trust fund has been generating a lot of assets.

嗯，自從 1960 年代和 70 年代以來，這個信託基金就一直在累積大量資產。

Especially when back in the days the yields on the US Treasuries were extremely high.

尤其是以前美國國庫券的收益率非常高的時候。

And the trust fund enormously benefited out of that.

But those $2.7 trillion are quickly are going to go to zero in the next three to four years.

但這 2.7 兆美元，在未來三到四年內就會迅速歸零。

字幕列表影片播放

政府將關閉社會安全局（數學證明瞭）！ (The Government Will Shut Down Social Security (And The Math Proves It))

literally

entire

extremely

eliminate