Name: 邁阿密市長勝選對民主黨意味著什麼？哈利·安滕分析數據！ (What Miami's mayoral win means for Dems: Harry Enten runs the numbers)
Uploaded: 2025-12-28T17:07:36.000Z
Duration: 8 min 47 s

分詞構句

CNN projects that Eileen Higgins will win the Miami mayor's race, defeating the Trump backed Republican candidate she was up against.

CNN 預計 Eileen Higgins 將贏得邁阿密市長競選，擊敗了她對手、獲得川普支持的共和黨候選人。

程度副詞

A Republican has held that office for nearly 30 years.

一位共和黨人已經擔任該職位將近 30 年了。

It's the latest election outcome really in the first year of President Trump's second term that Dems are leaning into for sure.

這真的是川普總統第二任期第一年最新的選舉結果，民主黨人肯定會抓住這個機會。

But how much of a warning is this for Republicans ahead of the, ahead of the midterms?

但這對共和黨人在期中選舉前，期中選舉前發出了多大的警訊？

Cnn Harry Anton is here running the numbers for us.

CNN 的 Harry Anton 在這裡為我們分析數據。

How first and foremost, how surprising was this win?

首先，這個勝利有多令人驚訝？

It's surprising because the last time a held the office of mayor of Miami was back during the era of the Birdcage, which was a great film in the late 1900s and 90s, one of my favorites.

這令人驚訝，因為上次有人擔任邁阿密市長是在 Birdcage 的時代，那是一部很棒的電影，在 1900 年代末和 90 年代，我最喜歡的電影之一。

But more than that, Kate Baldwin, it feels like deja vu all over again.

但更重要的是，Kate Baldwin，感覺就像 deja vu 一樣。

Sarah Seiner is laughing in the back there, I want to note, and

Sarah Seiner 在後面笑，我想說明一下，

I'm coming in from Buffalo where I was watching the Bills.

我從水牛城過來，在那裡我看了 Bills 的比賽。

Therefore my voice is that what's going on?

所以我的意思是，發生了什麼事？

You can't blame me being Typhoid Mary on this one.

這件事不能怪我傳染 Typhoid Mary。

But this was just such a big shift to the Democrats.

但這對民主黨人來說是一個巨大的轉變。

I mean, Kamala Harris won Miami, but just by a point.

我的意思是，Kamala Harris 贏得了邁阿密，但只贏了一點點。

There was a huge shift towards Donald Trump.

出現了對 Donald Trump 的巨大轉變。

This was a, in Miami, Joe Biden had carried Miami by nearly 20 points and Harris only won it by one.

我的意思是，在邁阿密，Joe Biden 幾乎以 20 分的優勢贏得了邁阿密，而 Harris 只贏了一分。

And all of a sudden, look at this, it's a 19 point win for Higgins.

然後突然間，看看這個，Higgins 贏了 19 分。

That is an 18 point shift in over in just a year's time.

這在短短一年內就出現了 18 分的轉變。

And of course it is just the latest shift that we're seeing.

這當然是我們看到的最新轉變。

That is what I think is so, so important going on here.

我認為這才是這裡真正非常非常重要的發展。

We've seen in special elections, we saw it in Virginia gov.

我們在特別選舉中看到了，在維吉尼亞州長選舉中也看到了。

我們在紐澤西州長選舉中也看到了。

We have seen it across the political map whereby over and over and over again the baseline from 2024, Democrats are consistently outperforming at 10, 15, nearly 20 points in this case.

我們在整個政治地圖上都看到了，一次又一次，2024 年的基礎分數，民主黨人持續表現出色，領先 10、15、甚至將近 20 分。

Well put this into more context of what you're talking about, into kind of the broader trend that we're seeing across the country in races.

好的，讓我們把這放到你所說的更廣泛的國家競選趨勢中來看看。

So I think what if you know anything about Miami, you know it's heavily Hispanic, heavily Latino.

所以，如果你對邁阿密有點瞭解，你會知道這裡的西班牙裔和拉丁裔人口非常多。

And what we have seen is that Democrats, excuse me, Latinos have absolutely gone up and said, you know what, I don't like what Donald Trump is doing.

而且我們看到的是，民主黨人，抱歉，拉丁裔絕對站出來說，你知道嗎，我不喜歡唐納·川普的做法。

I mean, just look at Donald Trump's net approval among Latinos.

我是說，看看唐納·川普在拉丁裔中的淨支持率。

Not too hot to trot, but not that bad either.

That is a shift of 36 points in the wrong direction, the completely wrong direction for Donald Trump.

這是一個朝錯誤方向移動了三十六個百分點，對唐納·川普來說是完全錯誤的方向。

And what the race in Miami illustrates, I was looking at the localities, locality by locality by locality.

而邁阿密的這場競選所說明的一點，我看了各個地方，一個地方又一個地方。

What you see is these huge shift, these heavily Hispanic neighborhoods of Miami against, against a Republican nominee from the Donald Trump baseline.

你看到的是這些巨大的轉變，這些邁阿密以西班牙裔為主的社區，反對，反對來自唐納·川普基礎線的共和黨提名人。

And so, to me, this is an encapsulation of what we've seen.

所以，對我來說，這就是我們所見情況的縮影。

We saw it in Arizona's 7th congressional district, right.

我們在亞利桑那州第七選區也看到了，對吧。

That special election earlier this year, again, a heavily Hispanic district.

今年早些時候的特別選舉，又是一個西班牙裔為主的選區。

What we see is Democrats outperforming that 2024 baseline, which to me is so important because we see these national polls.

我們看到民主黨人的表現超出了2024年的基準線，這對我來說非常重要，因為我們看到了全國性的民調。

You want, how is this actually going to impact things?

你會想，這實際上會如何影響事情？

And what we see is exactly what we saw last night.

而我們看到的，正是我們昨晚看到的。

The first Democratic mayor of the great city of Miami since the Bird cage era.

自Bird cage時代以來，邁阿密這座偉大城市的第一位民主黨市長。

So you have now Miami is going to be run by a Democrat.

所以現在邁阿密將由一位民主黨人執政。

How many Republicans run big cities in America anymore?

現在美國還有多少共和黨人管理大城市？

Yeah, this to me, is part of a longer, larger arc.

沒錯，對我來說，這是更長遠趨勢的一部分。

在全美50大城市中，共和黨市長的數量。

現在，隨著Higgins當選，剩下7位。

Donald Trump has been absolute kryptonite to Republicans who want to run major cities in the United States.

唐納·川普對那些想在美國大城市參選的共和黨人來說，簡直是致命傷。

They are an endangered, endangered species.

他們是瀕臨絕種的物種，非常瀕危。

Just since 2017, that shift, literally, Donald Trump kryptonite in big cities.

從2017年開始，這種轉變，說真的，對想在美國大城市參選的共和黨人來說，簡直是致命傷。

The Miami mayor's office went blue for the first time in nearly three decades.

邁阿密市長的職位近三十年來首次由民主黨人贏得。

Last night, Democrat Eileen Higgins won by 19 points over Republican challenger Emilio Gonzalez in a race where President Trump's immigration policies played a major role.

昨晚，民主黨人 Eileen Higgins 以19分的差距擊敗共和黨挑戰者 Emilio Gonzalez，而川普總統的移民政策在這場競選中扮演了重要角色。

And in Georgia, Democrat Eric Gisler flipped a state House seat in a district that went red by 12 points just over a year ago.

在喬治亞州，民主黨人 Eric Gisler 贏得了一個州眾議院席位，而這個選區在一年前還以12分的差距投給了共和黨。

So if you just look a little bit deeper into the shifts here in this race in which the shifts from 2024 in Miami went from plus one in 2024 to plus 19 for the Democrat this year, and

所以如果你仔細看看這次邁阿密市長競選的變化，從2024年的領先1%變成今年的領先19%，

in these Dem pickups in state legislature races as well, Kamala Harris margin, I should say, compared to the Democrat who won.

在這些民主黨人在州議會席次的贏得中，Kamala Harris 的得票率，我應該說，與贏得選舉的民主黨人相比。

And then in these Democratic pickups in state legislatures in these districts where Trump had won by an average of 10 points or more, other than here in Mississippi, look, the Democrats have picked up these seats this cycle.

然後在這些民主黨人在州議會贏得的席次中，在這些川普曾以平均10分或更多差距贏得的選區，除了密西西比州這裡，你看，民主黨人在這個週期贏得了這些席次。

This year in Iowa, last night in Georgia, the state that you cover pretty closely, how significant is this?

今年在愛荷華州，昨晚在喬治亞州，你密切關注的那個州，這有多重要？

I think it's significant because it shows that where Republicans thought they were able to make gains, they're losing a lot of the ground in a year.

我認為這很重要，因為它顯示了共和黨以為他們能夠取得進展的地方，他們正在失去很多陣地。

You know, the gains with Latino voters, the gains with black men, the gains with young voters in particular, are really eroding, I think, particularly in Georgia.

你知道，在拉丁裔選民、黑人男性選民、特別是年輕選民中的支持度，我認為正在嚴重流失，尤其是在喬治亞州。

It also shows the limitations of redistricting to try to benefit a political party because Georgia, during the regular redistricting after the last census carved up the city of Athens to make it more to help Republicans win these state legislative seats.

這也顯示了重新劃分選區以圖利某個政黨的侷限性，因為喬治亞州在上次人口普查後的例行重新劃分選區時，將雅典市劃分開來，以便讓共和黨人更容易贏得這些州議會席次。

And this is one of those seats that, yes, Republicans did win once, but

而這就是其中一個席次，是的，共和黨人曾經贏得過一次，

when you came back around, Democrats were able to retake that seat.

但當你們再次回來時，民主黨人能夠重新贏回那個席次。

You can't do it all through redistricting.

你無法單靠重新劃分選區來達成所有目標。

And that is a warning, particularly as we're looking at, you know, states like Texas, states like Indiana.

這是一個警訊，尤其當我們看到像德州、印第安那州這樣的州時。

And we're going to dive more into redistricting later in the show.

在節目稍後，我們會更深入探討重新劃分選區。

But this is just how the House special elections just for the U.S. house.

但這只是美國眾議院的特別選舉情況。

We just talked about the state races and local race in Miami, but

我們剛才談了邁阿密的州級和地方競選，但

the state House specials in this year so far, the shift has been all in the blue direction, 12 points in towards Democrats.

就今年到目前為止的州眾議院特別選舉而言，趨勢完全朝向民主黨，對民主黨人有利了 12 個百分點。

They didn't win the seat in Tennessee last week, but they improved on their margin there.

他們上週沒有贏得田納西州的席次，但他們在那裡的得票率有所提升。

There's an Arizona seat, there's a Virginia seat and two seats in Florida, all Democratic improvements from the last cycle.

亞利桑那州有一個席次，維吉尼亞州有一個席次，佛羅裡達州有兩個席次，與上個週期相比，民主黨人的表現都有進步。

Yeah, I mean, I think we're seeing a consistent electoral story all year long.

對啊，我的意思是，我認為我們今年一直看到一個持續的選舉趨勢。

I mean, some of these, some of the races you just showed, that goes back to April, the Iowa one, back to the beginning of the year, this has been an instant response from voters.

我的意思是，你剛才展示的這些競選活動，有些可以追溯到四月，愛荷華州的那個，回到年初，選民的反應一直都很即時。

I mean, a year ago in American politics, when we were sitting here, every arrow was pointing red and to the right electorally in terms of margins and gains and all the gains you just talked about.

我的意思是，一年前的美國政治，當我們在這裡的時候，所有的指標都指向紅色，在選舉方面，無論是差距、獲勝還是你剛才提到的所有進展，都傾向右派。

And that is a huge, huge warning sign for Republicans, which historically are facing a tough year anyway in the midterms.

這對共和黨人來說是一個非常、非常嚴重的警訊，他們本來就面臨一個艱難的期中選舉年。

But it does seem there is something in the water electorally, which is it's not just, yes, not loving what Donald Trump is doing.

但似乎選舉上有些特別的狀況，不只是，是的，不喜歡唐納·川普的所作所為。

It is actually as poll after poll tells us, that American voters believe Donald Trump's policies in the economy are potentially making things worse.

事實上，正如一份又一份的民調告訴我們的，美國選民認為唐納·川普的經濟政策可能會讓情況變得更糟。

And that is a really, really tough sell for them.

而這對他們來說是一個非常、非常難以說服的論點。

So how do you adjust if you're the White House or the GOP and you're seeing this clear trend according to the White House chief of staff send Donald Trump on the campaign trail everywhere, always.

所以，如果你是白宮或共和黨，看到這個明顯的趨勢，你會如何調整？根據白宮幕僚長說，讓唐納·川普到處去競選。