Name: 中國的「目光」轉向日本！挑釁軍演挑釁意味濃厚！ (‘China’s attention’ turns to Japan with taunting war drills)
Uploaded: 2025-12-11T23:50:51.000Z
Duration: 10 min 29 s

情態副詞

especially our politicians gotta stop pretending that war isn't getting dangerously close because China and its ally Russia have incredibly this week upped the stakes in preparation for one with a dramatic joint flight of bombers and fighters sent to menace Japan.

我們的政治人物尤其得停止假裝戰爭沒有危險地逼近，因為中國和其盟友俄羅斯本週已大幅提高賭注，準備發動一場戰爭，並進行了轟炸機和戰鬥機的聯合演習，以威脅日本。

程度副詞

China's dictator Xi Jinping has ordered his military to prepare for war in two years as a war to conquer the democratic island nation of Taiwan, which has got a population almost as big as ours.

中國的獨裁者習近平已下令軍隊在兩年內準備好一場征服民主島國臺灣的戰爭，臺灣的人口幾乎和我們一樣多。

But another part of that preparation is to scare off countries like Australia from even thinking of defending Taiwan if it gets to that.

但這項準備的另一部分是嚇阻像澳洲這樣的國家，讓牠們在萬一發生時，連想都別想防衛臺灣。

Now, in February, for instance, China's communist regime sent three warships to circle Australia, firing their weapons without notice, forcing 49 planes off New South Wales to change course.

舉例來說，在二月，中國的共產政權派遣了三艘軍艦繞行澳洲，未經通知就開火，迫使新南威爾斯省的49架飛機改變航線。

Then a couple of weeks ago it sent its number three guy to Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister, to warn him to his face to mind his own business when it came to Taiwan.

接著在幾週前，中國派了牠的第三號人物去見安東尼·艾班尼斯總理，當面警告他，在臺灣問題上少管閒事。

But that is nothing compared to what China is now doing to Japan and now with Russia's help, which is quite sinister.

但這跟中國現在正在對日本做的事情相比，根本不算什麼，而且現在還有俄羅斯的協助，這非常陰險。

Last month Japan's Prime Minister said Japan would have to defend Taiwan in an invasion.

上個月，日本首相表示，日本將不得不保衛臺灣免受入侵。

And since then China has threatened to cut her dirty neck, that was the exact phrase.

從那時起，中國就威脅要「斬斷她的骯髒脖子」，這就是原話。

Has sent its new aircraft carrier to hold exercises off the Japanese coast and then had two planes from that carrier lock Japanese fighters with target radar, the ultimate step before opening fire.

中國已派遣牠的新航空母艦在日本海岸外舉行演習，然後該航母上的兩架飛機用目標雷達鎖定日本戰鬥機，這是開火前的最後一步。

And now on Tuesday, two Russian nuclear capable Tu95 bombers rendezvoused with two Chinese H6 bombers which are capable of carrying long range missiles, rendezvoused with them in the East China Sea and then together conducted a joint flight around Japan.

接著在週二，有兩架俄羅斯的核武能力Tu95轟炸機，與兩架能搭載長程飛彈的中國H6轟炸機，在東海會合，然後一起在日本上空進行聯合飛行。

For the first time they were joined by eight Chinese jets in what Japan's Defense Minister said was a demonstration of force against Japan is our regular commentator, General Jack Keane.

日本防衛大臣表示，這是中國首次派遣八架戰機加入，是對日本的武力展示，我們的常任評論員傑克·基恩將軍。

General Keane was Vice Chief of Staff of the United States army and a four star General is now chairman of the Institute for the Study of War.

基恩將軍曾是美國陸軍副參謀長，也是四星上將，現任戰爭研究所主席。

Well, I think what's really happening here is, you know, the regime has changed in Japan and Takayaki, who's in charge, and

嗯，我認為這裡真正發生的是，你知道的，日本的政權已經改變了，而負責的岸田文雄，

she is really increasing the defense budget.

She's taken a strong stand in concert with the United States against China, which is the major threat in the region.

他與美國一起對中國採取了強硬立場，而中國是該地區的主要威脅。

So I think that has clearly got China's attention, Russia along with it, and

所以我認為這顯然引起了中國的注意，俄羅斯也跟著一起，

they're trying to posture a little bit here.

他們在這裡試圖擺出一些姿態。

I don't believe Japan is going to be intimidated here at all.

我認為日本根本不會是以受到嚇阻。

And I really think this, we should be encouraged by the fact that she's moving in the right direction here and it's got their attention, but

我真的認為，我們應該對她朝正確方向邁進並引起他們注意這件事感到鼓舞，但

it's not going to lead to coercion and change her behavior.

這不會導致脅迫或改變她的行為。

They have come to the realization it's a center of gravity for them that China is a major threat and they have to stand up to them.

他們已經意識到，中國是他們主要的威脅，是他們必須對抗的重心。

Well, I totally agree, but the actions of China and Russia is just so flagrant.

嗯，我完全同意，但中國和俄羅斯的行為實在太明目張膽了。

President Donald Trump has been reluctant to provoke China to really call it out lately as a military threat.

過去，川普總統一直不願挑釁中國，最近也不願將其稱為軍事威脅。

But yesterday the US did say it stood with Japan over that targeting of Japanese planes with Chinese radars.

但昨天美國確實表示，在中國雷達鎖定日本飛機一事上，美國與日本站在一起。

General, I'm wondering whether one reason for President Trump's caution, apart from, of course, an aversion to war, may be a new report that based on American war games, warning that China now had the right weapons to defeat the United States.

將軍，我想知道川普總統謹慎的原因之一，除了當然是厭惡戰爭之外，是否是因為一份根據美國兵棋推演的最新報告，警告中國現在擁有擊敗美國的武器。

Now, how serious is this and what is China's advantage?

那麼，這有多嚴重？中國的優勢是什麼？

We've been running war games against China for eight to 10 years, and

我們已經針對中國進行了八到十年的兵棋推演，

every once in a while one of them pops into the paper here.

偶爾就會有一份報告在這裡的報紙上出現。

They're referring to an overmatch briefing also.

他們指的是一份「優勢簡報」。

Not only does China outgun us and outmatch us right now almost weapon for weapon, you know, whether it's air defense systems, offensive long range systems, hypersonic weapons, obviously ships, numbers of airplanes, et cetera, but

中國不僅在武器上幾乎與我們旗鼓相當，無論是防空系統、遠程攻擊系統、高超音速武器，當然還有艦艇、飛機數量等等，而且

attempting to catch up to them is very challenging.

And that's what they mean by the overmatch, not only just now, but in the future.

這就是他們所說的「優勢」，不僅是現在，也是未來。

It's very sobering to be quite frank about it without getting into the details.

坦白說，這非常令人警醒，但我們不深入探討細節。

I do think there's much we can do to help ourselves here.

我認為我們有很多方法可以幫助自己。

But the reality is, yes, when we play those war games, we're challenged to win and indeed lose most of them.

但現實是，是的，當我們進行這些戰爭推演時，我們很難獲勝，甚至大多數都輸了。

It has seized me for a long time and I have been arguing that we have to bring into the theater more forward deployed capability for sure to be able to deter him.

這件事困擾我很久了，我一直主張我們必須為該戰區引進更多前線部署的能力，以確保能嚇阻他。

My view is we don't have to go platform to platform with China.

我的看法是，我們不必和中國進行平臺對平臺的較量。

我們當初也沒有跟蘇聯這樣做。

They outgunned us and outmanned us and everything, Andrew.

他們在火力、兵力上都壓倒我們，安德魯。

But we had enough capability there to impose cost and question whether they could be successful or not.

但我們有足夠的能力在那裡施加代價，讓他們質疑自己是否能成功。

For credible deterrence, it has to do with your force posture.

要達到可信的嚇阻，跟你的兵力部署有關。

Number two, how much capability do you really have because your adversary is looking at?

第二，你的對手正在看，你到底有多少能力？

The third thing is you have to signal them your intent and what the red lines are.

第三，你必須向他們傳達你的意圖和紅線在哪裡。

And then the fourth thing is you have to have the will and the resolve to use that capability.

然後第四，你必須有意志和決心去使用這種能力。

We have shortfalls in the capabilities themselves and also shortfalls in the forces that.

我們在能力本身以及部隊方面都有不足。

We've got to solve both, both of those issues, and we got to get after it quickly.

我們必須同時解決這兩個問題，而且要趕快處理。

It's interesting, this report says, you know, China can do mass production of a lot of munitions, whereas America focuses on the very expensive, well, ones.

有趣的是，這份報告說，中國可以大規模生產很多彈藥，而美國則專注於非常昂貴的彈藥。

You can't mass produce big things, and maybe it could get overwhelmed.

你無法大規模生產大型物品，而且可能會被壓倒。

General Keane, this is the last time I'll talk to you for the year.

傑克·基恩將軍，這是我今年最後一次跟你說話了。

Can I ask you to reflect, you have had a honorable and impressive career defending the US Ever since you served as a paratrooper in the Vietnam War.

我可以請你回顧一下，你為美國辯護的職業生涯光榮而令人印象深刻，自從你在越戰中擔任傘兵以來。

You later oversaw US Engagements in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo.

你後來還負責了美國在索馬利亞、海地、波士尼亞、科索沃的軍事行動。

You became Vice Chief of staff of the U.S. army.

你後來成為美國陸軍的副參謀長。

And all of which had Donald Trump award you the Presidential Medal of Freedom, offer you the position of Secretary of Defense, which you declined.

這些都讓你獲得了唐納·川普頒發的總統自由勳章，並提供你國防部長一職，但你拒絕了。

Where now do you see America and its place in the world, its leadership and the threats it faces?

那麼，你現在認為美國及其在世界上的地位、領導地位以及面臨的威脅是什麼？

Well, the reality is, I mean, when President Trump took over, he took over literally a world mess.

嗯，事實是，我的意思是，當川普總統上任時，他接手的是一個混亂的世界。

Also, huge problems domestically with an open border and epic crime rates as a result of that and other things happening in our country.

同時，國內也有巨大的問題，邊境開放，以及是以和其他國內發生的事情導致的嚴重犯罪率。

And I think he has, in a very short time, less than a year, tried to address all of these major issues.

我認為他在很短的時間內，不到一年，就試圖解決了所有這些重大問題。

I think he has returned American leadership to a world stage for sure.

我認為他確實讓美國的領導地位重返世界舞臺。

There's some people who think he's an isolationist.

有些人認為他是個孤立主義者。

He's gone out there and tried to solve seven or eight wars and brought them to peaceful conclusions.

他走出去試圖解決七八場戰爭，並將它們和平結束。

And he stepped up in the Middle east almost perfectly, I think, and

而且我認為他在中東地區的表現近乎完美，

removed all the restrictions on Israel and told Netanyahu, go ahead and finish Gaza and finish Hamas, go ahead and attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, and

解除了對以色列的所有限制，並告訴納坦雅胡，放手去解決加薩和哈瑪斯，放手去攻擊黎巴嫩的希斯堡，

certainly gave him the green light and that he would support him with the attack on Iran and then delivered a decisive blow himself.

當然給了他綠燈，並表示他會支持他攻擊伊朗，然後親自給予決定性的一擊。

And I think the opportunities in the Middle east for some peace and stability once the Gaza war finally does come to an end are very, very, very real.

而且我認為，一旦加薩戰爭終於結束，中東地區實現和平與穩定的機會非常、非常、非常真實。

He supported Ukraine more significantly than a previous president has done.

他對烏克蘭的支持比前任總統更顯著。

He obviously wants to work a deal with Putin.

Some of us would like him to take a stronger stance sooner, but

我們有些人希望他能更快採取更強硬的立場，但

他已經開始採取這種立場，而且

hopefully we can bring that to a favorable conclusion for Ukraine.

希望我們能為烏克蘭帶來一個有利的結局。

I know for a fact that he's not going to abandon Ukraine.

我確切知道他不會拋棄烏克蘭。

He may put pressure on him once in a while to make a deal, but

他或許偶爾會施壓要他達成協議，但

He's going to continue to support them and the major challenge we're facing is China.

他會繼續支持他們，而我們面臨的主要挑戰是中國。

我們針對那個展開了一個計畫。

I believe in my mind he's still carrying a big stick here and he knows that we're behind militarily.

我心裡相信他這裡還是有底牌，而且他知道我們在軍事上落後了。

The Defense Department is working very hard to catch up with all of that.

國防部正非常努力地想追上這一切。

And he had in his national security strategy, which I didn't completely agree with in terms of the tone and anti European tone it had, but

在他國家安全戰略中，雖然我不太同意其中針對歐洲的語氣，但

he had strong statement in there about Taiwan and also how important the region was to the United States.

他對於臺灣以及該區域對美國的重要性，有強烈的聲明。

So I do think he's turned leadership around in terms of American presence on a world stage, working with allies and partners.

所以我認為他在美國於世界舞臺上的領導力，透過與盟友及夥伴合作，已經扭轉了局面。

And certainly the perception that the United States is weak and vulnerable that we had for the previous four years, that is gone completely.

而且過去四年那種美國軟弱且易受攻擊的觀感，現在已經完全消失了。

In general, Jackie, given a lot of the criticism that he faces, it counters that.

傑克，總的來說，考慮到他面臨的許多批評，這番話正好反駁了那些批評。

Look, I've got to thank you for the value you've given to this show.

聽著，我得感謝你為這個節目帶來的價值。

Thank you so much and have a great Christmas.

非常感謝你，祝你有個愉快的聖誕節。

Merry Christmas to you and your audience and thoroughly enjoy talking to you.

也祝你和你的觀眾聖誕快樂，跟你哈拉真的非常愉快。