Name: 股神巴菲特出手了！買進這檔 AI 潛力股！ (Warren Buffett Just Bought an AI Stock.)
Uploaded: 2025-11-20T18:09:21.000Z
Duration: 11 min 24 s

程度副詞

Warren Buffett just made the biggest investment of his life.

華倫·巴菲特剛做了他人生中最大的一筆投資。

He has never invested in Tesla, Nvidia or Google.

他從未投資過 Tesla、Nvidia 或 Google。

The recent F13 filing shows that Warren Buffett, for the first time ever invested in Google.

最近的 F13 filing 顯示，華倫·巴菲特是第一次 invested in Google。

And that is very strange and unusual because we are in this hyper inflated market and the entire stock market does not make sense.

這很奇怪也很不尋常，因為我們正處於這個極度膨脹的市場，整個 stock market 都沒有道理。

And that's why Warren Buffett has been accumulating cash for the last three years and is almost on $400 billion worth of cash.

這就是為什麼華倫·巴菲特過去三年一直在 accumulating cash，現在幾乎有價值 4000 億美元的 cash。

So what exactly has changed and why Warren Buffet suddenly wanted to invest in Google?

那麼，到底是什麼改變了，為什麼華倫·巴菲特突然想 invest in Google？

Warren Buffett's investing strategy has always been Benjamin Graham's strategy.

華倫·巴菲特的 investing strategy 一直是班傑明·葛拉漢的策略。

You buy troubled businesses at an extremely cheap price and then you restructure and improve them and then sell them for a higher price.

你會以極低的價格買進有問題的公司，然後重整、改善它們，再以更高的價格賣出。

Once these businesses start to generate revenue, imagine in the streets and you find a really bad business.

一旦這些公司開始產生營收，想像一下，走在街上，你發現一家經營得很差的公司。

I mean, they have some good products, but the company is going through some kind of a crisis.

我的意思是，它們有些好產品，但公司正經歷某種危機。

But it needs some improvements, some investments, and

但它需要一些改善、一些投資，

once it's fixed, then it can be sold at a higher price.

一旦修復好了，就可以以更高的價格賣出。

Imagine there is a very bad piece of real estate in a very good neighborhood.

想像一下，在一個很好的地段，有一塊非常糟糕的房地產。

You buy the property, renovate it, fix it, and then you sell it for a higher price.

你買下那塊地，翻新它、修繕它，然後以更高的價格賣掉。

That is the investing strategy that Benjamin Graham laid very clearly in his video, very famous book, the Intelligent Investor.

這就是班傑明·葛拉漢在他的影片、非常有名的書《智慧型股票投資人》中非常清楚闡述的 investing strategy。

But after following this strategy for decades, Warren Buffett realized that this is a very bad strategy.

但在遵循這個策略幾十年後，華倫·巴菲特意識到這是一個非常糟糕的策略。

And you should not be following this strategy.

而且你也不應該遵循這個策略。

Bad businesses take a lot of time, they take a lot of stress, and

糟糕的公司會耗費你很多時間，帶來很多壓力，而且

very rarely they are turned into great businesses.

What is a far better investing strategy is to focus initially on very great businesses at a fair price.

一個好很多的 investing strategy 是，一開始就專注在價格合理的很棒的公司。

If there is a great business, that business is run by very passionate people who know exactly what they're doing.

如果一家公司很棒，那家公司就會由充滿熱情、知道自己在做什麼的人來經營。

They have products that are always there in demand.

他們有一直都有需求的 good products。

Take an example of Apple, which is a great business.

以 Apple 為例，這是一家很棒的公司。

You first get yourself an iPhone, then a MacBook, then an iPad, and

你一開始買了 iPhone，接著是 MacBook，然後是 iPad，

then suddenly you realize that your entire life consists of Apple products.

接著你突然發現你的全部生活都由 Apple 的產品組成。

Great businesses also have brand loyalty.

When you see the brand, you're like, oh, I like that.

看到那個品牌，你就會覺得，喔，我喜歡這個。

I'm gonna buy that because I trust that brand.

我要買它，因為我信任那個品牌。

The reason that so many people buy Nike shoes is because there is such a strong brand loyalty.

這麼多人買 Nike 鞋的原因，是因為有這麼強的品牌忠誠度。

If you see that Nike sign, then you know that that's the kind of shoes that you want to wear.

如果你看到 Nike 的標誌，你就知道那是你想穿的鞋子。

Since they have such great products, they are run by very passionate people.

既然他們有這麼棒的產品，他們是由非常有熱情的人經營的。

這就是為什麼這個 Strategy 很簡單。

You just buy these businesses and you never sell them unless the fundamentals of the business change.

你只要買進這些公司，然後永遠不要賣掉它們，除非公司的基本面改變了。

If suddenly the brand loyalty is lost, suddenly the management is bad.

如果品牌忠誠度突然消失，管理突然變差。

Suddenly they start producing very bad quality products and that's when you sell that business.

突然間他們開始生產品質很差的產品，這時候你就可以賣掉這家公司了。

The problem with these companies is that they attract a lot of investors.

這些公司的問題是，它們會吸引很多投資人。

Suddenly everybody wants to buy in that business and that's why you see their stock price skyrocket to the roof.

突然間大家搶著買進這家公司，這也是為什麼你會看到他們的股價飆到天花板。

It is very difficult to find such businesses at a fair price.

要找到這種公司在一個合理的價錢是很難的。

They have such a strong brand loyalty and they are actually changing the world.

他們有這麼強的品牌忠誠度，而且他們真的在改變世界。

But the problem with Palantir is that there is so much demand to Palantir that their stock price is not being backed by earnings.

但 Palantir 的問題是，對 Palantir 的需求太大了，所以他們的股價並沒有被獲利支撐著。

所以這是一家被過度膨脹的公司。

And that's why the trick with this strategy is that you want to buy that business at a fair price.

這也是為什麼這個策略的訣竅是，你要在一個合理的價錢買進那家公司。

At a price that you know for a fact that is being backed by real earnings behind it.

在一個你知道確確實實有真實獲利支撐的價錢。

在2016年，巴菲特 invested in Apple。

When Apple already developed the iPhone, it developed its business strategy.

當 Apple 已經開發出 iPhone 時，它也發展了它的 business strategy。

And since then the stock has grown by over a thousand percent.

從那時起，股價就成長了超過一千趴。

Why would you buy a troubled business when you have a great business that has already grown by a thousand percentage points?

當一家 great business 已經成長了一千趴，你為什麼還要買一家 troubled business 呢？

And the only reason that he sold a substantial amount of his investments in Apple is not because something has changed with Apple, but

而他賣掉大部分 Apple 投資的唯一原因，不是因為 Apple 發生了什麼事，

rather his Apple investment became so big that it dominated his entire portfolio.

而是因為他的 Apple 投資變得太大了，大到佔據了他整個 portfolio。

In fact, back in 2017, in his annual letter to shareholder, he told the shareholder that he regrets not buying Google and Amazon.

事實上，在2017年，他在給股東的年度信中告訴股東，他後悔沒有買 Google 和 Amazon。

These two businesses were extremely great because Warren Buffett holds a lot of small businesses.

這兩家公司都非常棒，因為 Warren Buffett 擁有很多小公司。

And all of these small businesses use Google Ads to advertise their products.

而這些小公司都使用 Google Ads 來推廣他們的 good products。

So basically, if your businesses are using Google to sell their products, well, maybe you should be investing in Google because they have a product that every business on earth wants.

所以基本上，如果你的公司有在使用 Google 來賣產品，那或許你該投資 Google，因為他們有一個地球上所有公司都想要的產品。

But the trick in investing is that you don't buy businesses just because they are great.

但投資的訣竅在於，你不能只是因為一家公司很棒就去買它。

You buy great businesses at a fair price.

你要用合理的價格買進很棒的公司。

And that's what differentiates a great investor from a beginner.

這就是偉大投資者和新手之間的差別。

Because those old beginner investors who try to tell you that you should buy Tesla, Palantir or Nvidia, yeah, they're going to give you a very good reasons for.

因為那些試圖告訴你應該買 Tesla、Palantir 或 Nvidia 的新手投資者，他們會給你很好的理由。

The price of that stock is over inflated.

那檔股票的價格已經被炒得太高了。

The demand is so strong that the stock price is shot to the roof.

需求太強勁，股價早就衝破天際。

And that's why Warren Buffett was waiting until the price of the stock drops to the point where that price is backed by real earnings.

這就是為什麼 Warren Buffett 會等到股價跌到有實際收益支撐的價位。

And it seems like we've got to the point where it's time to buy Alphabet.

看起來我們也到了該買進 Alphabet 的時候了。

The stock market is certainly overvalued and most tech stocks are being sold way above that the real valuation.

股市確實被高估了，而且大部分 tech stocks 的價格都遠遠超過了實際估值。

But if you look at Google stock price, even though that its valuation is about $3.5 trillion, it is PE ratio is about 28.

但如果你看看 Google 的股價，即使它的估值大約是 3.5 兆美元，本益比大約是 28。

PE ratio basically is how much investors are paying for a single earnings of the company.

本益比基本上是投資人為公司單一收益支付的金額。

So the higher the P E ratio, the more investors are paying in hopes that that company is going to generate a lot more money.

所以本益比越高，投資人就越希望公司能賺進更多錢。

For tech companies, a pe ratio of 20 to 20 to 25 is considered normal.

對於 tech companies 來說，20 到 25 的本益比算是正常的。

Alphabet is not insanely overvalued like Palantir, that has a P e ratio of 200 or 300.

Alphabet 並不像 Palantir 那樣被瘋狂高估，Palantir 的本益比是 200 或 300。

There was a time where Tesla's PE ratio was like 850.

曾經有段時間 Tesla 的本益比高達 850。

And that's why since then the price of Tesla stock has dropped.

這也是為什麼從那時候起，Tesla 股價就下跌了。

Some might say that, well, the market cap is like $3.5 trillion.

有人可能會說，嗯，市值大約是 3.5 兆美元。

The market cap could be even $10 trillion.

That doesn't have to check the market cap and see if it's being backed by real earnings.

這不一定要查看市值，看看它是否由實際收益支撐。

In 2024, the company generated a revenue of $350 billion and a net income of $100 billion.

2024 年，該公司產生了 3500 億美元的營收和 1000 億美元的淨利潤。

There aren't many companies that can tell you that we have a net income of $100 billion.

沒有多少公司能說出我們有 1000 億美元的淨利潤。

I don't think even Nvidia, which worth over $5 trillion, I think its valuation has already dropped since then, is not even making $100 billion.

我認為即使是市值超過 5 兆美元的 Nvidia，我認為它的估值從那時起就已經下跌了，連 1000 億美元都賺不到。

And yet Nvidia has a $5 trillion valuation and Google has a much lower valuation.

而且 Nvidia 的市值是 5 兆美元，而 Google 的市值低很多。

And these are the revenues and net income for the last year.

This year, Google is expected to generate $400 billion in revenue and a net profit of $115 billion.

今年，Google 預計將產生 4000 億美元的營收和 1150 億美元的淨利潤。

The company is making far more than Nvidia.

And in its market cap, it's far, far lower.

而且它的市值，遠遠遠遠低於 Nvidia。

And that's why maybe you should be buying Google and not Nvidia.

這就是為什麼你或許應該買 Google 而不是 Nvidia。

Nvidia's revenue and profit margin exploded just in recent years because we have this AI rush that is happening and everybody wants GPUs from Nvidia.

Nvidia 的營收和利潤率在近年來爆炸性成長，因為我們有這波 AI 熱潮，每個人都想要 Nvidia 的 GPU。

And since there is such a huge demand that Nvidia can fulfill, they have risen their prices.

由於有如此龐大的需求 Nvidia 能夠滿足，它們提高了價格。

But in a year or two, most likely they will have to lower down their prices to stay competitive.

但一兩年內，它們很可能就必須降低價格以保持競爭力。