Name: 這可能是我們有史以來最嚴重的經濟衰退--5 個跡象 (This Could Be The Worse Recession We Will Ever Have - 5 Signs)
Uploaded: 2025-11-02T18:26:07.000Z
Duration: 18 min 11 s

This could be the worst recession the United States will ever face.

這可能是美國有史以來最嚴重的衰退。

情態副詞

Companies across multiple industries are massively laying off their employees.

許多不同行業的公司正在大規模裁員。

程度副詞

Amazon just announced that they will lay off 30,000 people.

And intel, which was recently partially acquired by the government and is backed by the most powerful government in the world, is about to lay off 15% of its stuff.

而 Intel，最近被政府部分收購，並獲得世界上最強大政府的支持，正準備裁員 15% 的員工。

And this is happening across multiple different industries.

這情況正在跨越許多不同的行業發生。

If this is happening to the largest companies across the country, what do you think is happening to small little private businesses?

如果這是發生在國家裡最大的公司身上，你認為小型私人企業會發生什麼事？

他們正在受苦，他們正在掙扎。

Revenues are falling down, costs are rising.

營收正在下降，成本正在上升。

Even though that we are in the middle of the greatest revolution in history, the AI revolution.

即使我們正處於歷史上最偉大的革命，也就是 AI 革命之中。

And this is just the beginning because the big tech is preparing itself for a really worse recession.

這還只是開始，因為大型科技公司正在為更嚴重的衰退做準備。

J.P. morgan, Goldman Sachs, everybody is anticipating a recession.

J.P. Morgan、Goldman Sachs，大家都預期會有衰退。

But this recession is going to be very different.

What makes this recession so different from all previous recessions is that we did not have a recession since 2008 financial crisis.

這次衰退之所以跟以往所有衰退都不同，是因為自從 2008 年金融危機以來，我們就沒有經歷過衰退了。

Prior to that, recessions were absolutely normal.

在那之前，衰退是完全正常的。

In 2001 the economy crashed and then we got out of that recession.

2001 年經濟崩盤，然後我們走出了那場衰退。

The only recession since 2008 happened was in 2022.

2008 年以來唯一發生的衰退是在 2022 年。

But technically that wasn't actually a rece.

但技術上來說，那其實不是衰退。

That's because the global economy collapsed.

Since we got a global pandemic, countries shut down their borders and the economic machine began to slow down.

因為我們經歷了全球疫情，各國關閉邊境，經濟機器開始減速。

But when central banks enter the economy with so much cheap money, we avoided that recession.

但當央行注入大量廉價資金進入經濟時，我們避開了那次衰退。

And we have avoided many recessions because the Federal Reserve has been fueling the country with cheap money.

而且我們避開了好幾次衰退，因為聯準會一直用廉價資金為國家注入活力。

One of the biggest indicators of a recession is the yield curve.

衰退最大的指標之一就是殖利率曲線。

When you borrow money or you provide loans to somebody, the longer the loan, the higher should be the interest rate.

當你借錢或借錢給別人時，貸款時間越長，利率應該越高。

The shorter the loan, the smaller or the lower should be the yield on that.

貸款時間越短，報酬率應該越小或越低。

If you are buying a US treasury for one month, you are not worried.

如果你購買一個月的美國國庫券，你不會擔心。

You will get your money one month from now.

But if you have locked your money for the next 30 years, imagine how many opportunities you are going to miss.

但如果你把錢鎖定 30 年，想像一下你會錯過多少機會。

The opportunity cost is dramatically higher.

But your money right now is being locked at the hands of the government and you can't use it in order to invest in the AI stocks.

但你現在的錢被政府鎖住了，你無法用它來投資 AI 股票。

So you miss that opportunity, which is why you will demand a much higher yield.

所以你錯過了那個機會，這就是為什麼你會要求更高的報酬率。

If you're investing long term, if you're locking your money for the next 10, 20 or 30 years.

如果你長期投資，如果你把錢鎖定未來 10 年、20 年或 30 年。

And that's why this is how the yield curve usually looks like.

這就是殖利率曲線通常的樣子。

Short term government bonds provides you with a much lower yield.

短期政府債券提供你較低的報酬率。

Longer government bonds provide you with a much higher yields.

長期政府債券提供你較高的報酬率。

The moment the dynamic of this curve changes, that's when we have a problem.

當這條曲線的動態改變的那一刻，我們就有問題了。

The the moment investors start expecting a much lower yield on long term government bonds than short term government bonds, it changes the dynamic of the market.

當投資人預期長期政府債券的報酬率比短期政府債券低得多時，這就改變了市場的動態。

And that's when you have to ask yourself why investors are comfortable to accept much lower yields on long term government bonds than short term government bonds.

這時你必須問自己，為什麼投資人願意接受比短期政府債券更低的長期政府債券報酬率。

This is how it looks like usually when the yield curve is inverted.

這就是殖利率曲線倒掛時的常見情況。

Short term government bonds, such as three months, six months, one year have a much higher interest rate than longer term government bonds such as 30 year government bonds.

短期政府債券，像是三個月、六個月、一年期，其利率會比長期的政府債券，例如三十年期政府債券，高出許多。

What usually determines the yields on treasury bills is supply and demand.

決定國庫券殖利率的通常是供需關係。

If more people want to buy short term yields, then their rates will be much lower.

如果更多人想買短期債券，那麼它們的利率就會低很多。

If the demand for short term treasury bills is so low, then the government will offer a much higher interest rate to attract investors.

如果對短期國庫券的需求非常低，那麼政府就會提供更高的利率來吸引投資人。

And the same logic applies to long term government bonds.

同樣的邏輯也適用於長期政府債券。

If the demand for 30 year government bonds suddenly skyrockets, the then the government is going to provide a much slower or a much lower yield and vice versa.

如果對三十年期政府債券的需求突然飆升，那麼政府將提供較慢或較低的殖利率，反之亦然。

If there is very little demand for 30 year government bonds because everybody is excited about AI and everybody wants to invest in the stock market, they don't want to lock their money in the hands of the government for the next 30 years, then the government will suddenly start offering a much higher yield on 30 year government bonds in order to attract these investors.

如果因為大家對 AI 感到興奮，都想投資股市，不想把錢鎖在政府手上三十年，導致對三十年期政府債券的需求非常少，那麼政府為了吸引這些投資人，就會突然開始提供更高的三十年期政府債券殖利率。

But in this scenario, investors are willing to lock their money for the next 30 years.

但在這種情況下，投資人願意將他們的錢鎖三十年。

And that's because investors believe that the Fed will cut interest rates due to slower economic growth.

這是因為投資人認為聯準會會因為經濟成長放緩而降息。

When the economy begins to slow down, when it enters into a recession, when a financial crisis is about to hit, the Federal Reserve is going to lower interest rates, but

當經濟開始放緩，進入衰退，或金融危機即將來臨時，聯準會就會降低利率，但是

the new government bonds, because the Fed has lowered interest rates, especially on short term government bonds, they will start offering a much lower yields if we are entering into a recession and the Fed will keep interest rates very low.

新的政府債券，因為聯準會已經降低了利率，特別是短期政府債券，如果我們進入衰退，聯準會會將利率維持在非常低的水準，它們就會開始提供低很多的殖利率。

It's much better for me to buy long term government bonds at a higher rate to lock my money so that I will continue earning 4% or 5% in interest every single year.

我買長期政府債券，以較高的利率鎖定我的資金，這樣我每年都能持續賺取 4% 或 5% 的利息，這對我來說好多了。

Because a month from now my one month treasury bills is going to expire.

因為一個月後我的一個月期國庫券就會到期。

And if I buy a new treasury bills, it will offer me a much lower yield.

如果我買新的國庫券，它提供的殖利率會低很多。

Which is why as an investor, I will lock my money for 30 year government bonds so that I continue receiving a much higher yield on my investment.

這就是為什麼身為投資人，我會將資金鎖定在 30 年期政府債券，這樣我能持續獲得更高的投資殖利率。

And that's why the moment the economy slows down and the Fed starts to lower interest rates, investors lock their money for 30 year government bonds.

這就是為什麼一旦經濟放緩，聯準會開始降低利率，投資人就會將資金鎖定在 30 年期政府債券。

The demand for 30 year government bonds is going to rise.

30 年期政府債券的需求將會上升。

The yields in them is going to fall down, which is why we are going to have an inverted yield curve every single time.

其中的殖利率將會下降，這就是為什麼我們每次都會出現殖利率曲線倒掛。

That three month treasury bills had much higher interest rates or much higher yields compared to 10 year government bonds.

那三個月期國庫券的利率或殖利率，比 10 年期政府債券高很多。

Three month treasury bills had almost 3% higher yields than 10 year government bonds.

三個月期國庫券的殖利率比 10 年期政府債券高了將近 3%。

So the economy collapsed and we had a recession in early 2008.

所以經濟崩潰，我們在 2008 年初經歷了衰退。

The exact same thing happened over here and we had the Great Recession of 2008.

這裡發生了完全相同的事情，我們經歷了 2008 年的大衰退。

And since 2008, three month treasury bills usually had a much higher yield than 10 year government bonds.

自 2008 年以來，三個月期國庫券的殖利率通常遠高於 10 年期政府債券。

The US economy supposed to be in a recession since 2008 up until 2015 and 2016, but

美國經濟本應從 2008 年一直衰退到 2015 年和 2016 年，但

it did not happen because the Federal Reserve intervened in the economy and kept bumping the economy with so much cheap money that it prevented the economy to be in a recession.

這並沒有發生，因為聯準會介入經濟，注入大量廉價資金，阻止了經濟衰退。

The Fed artificially helped the economy avoid a recession with cheap money and not because the economy was actually growing.

聯準會透過廉價資金人為地幫助經濟避免衰退，而不是因為經濟真的在成長。

If it wasn't for the Federal Reserve, then the US Economy would have been in a recession far longer than one or two years that it was back in 2008 and 2009.

如果沒有聯準會，美國經濟的衰退時間將遠超 2008 年和 2009 年的一兩年。

Starting in 2020, that rate has also been growing.

從 2020 年開始，這個利率也在成長。

Short term treasury yields have been rising much higher than longer term government bonds.

短期國庫券的殖利率已經遠高於長期政府債券。

And that's why the probability of a recession by April 2024 has risen by 70%.

這也是為什麼到 2024 年 4 月發生衰退的機率上升了 70%。

But since then it has fallen dramatically because the Fed lowered interest rates in 2024 by about 1.5%.

但自那之後，這個數字大幅下降，因為聯準會在 2024 年將利率降低了約 1.5%。

And now that number is rising again because the probability of a recession is rising.

而現在這個數字又再次上升，因為衰退的機率正在升高。

The difference between 10 year government bonds and 3 month treasury bills is almost zero.

十年期政府債券和三個月期國庫券之間的差距幾乎為零。

The moment it becomes inverted, then the probability of a recession shoots to 70 or 80%.

一旦它變成反轉，衰退的機率就會飆升到 70% 或 80%。

And that's why so many big companies, so many investors are expecting a recession in the foreseeable future.

這也是為什麼這麼多大型公司、這麼多投資者預期在可預見的未來會發生衰退。

It's very normal for the economy to go through a recession every four to eight years.

經濟每四年到八年經歷一次衰退是很正常的。

The economy starts growing, inflation starts growing.

經濟開始成長，通貨膨脹也開始成長。

The moment we hit the point where inflation starts rising faster than the economy, that's when we should have a recession.

當我們進入通貨膨脹開始比經濟成長還快的時候，那時候我們就應該要衰退了。

Because at the end of the day, if inflation is rising and the GDP is growing, but

因為說到底，如果通貨膨脹在漲，GDP 也在漲，但是

the real economy is not growing, that's not what we want, because productivity isn't growing, the economy isn't growing.

實體經濟並沒有成長，這不是我們要的，因為生產力沒有成長，經濟也沒有成長。

Yes, prices has grown, but prices has grown because of inflation and not economic activity.

是的，物價有漲，但物價上漲是因為通貨膨脹，而不是因為經濟活動。

And that economic cycle was very normal until 2008.

而這個經濟循環在 2008 年之前都非常正常。

Something happens in 2008 that the economy stops getting into a recession.

2008 年發生了什麼事，讓經濟不再進入衰退。

Because every time we're hitting a recession, the Fed intervenes and it gives the economy an artificial boost.

因為每次我們快要衰退時，聯準會就會介入，給經濟一個人工的提振。

We hit a point where prices are rising much faster than the economy.

我們到了物價上漲速度遠快於經濟成長的階段。

我們本來應該要經歷一場衰退。

The economy is supposed to slow down, but

then the Fed intervenes and gives the economy another boost, so the economy starts growing again.

然後聯準會就會介入，再次提振經濟，所以經濟又開始成長了。

And that's why we avoided so many recessions over this period of time.

這就是為什麼在這段期間我們避開了這麼多次衰退。

In fact, if you look at what's happening right now, we're literally having every single sign that we're supposed to have a recession.

事實上，如果你看看現在正在發生的事，我們正出現所有應該要發生衰退的跡象。

If you look at the unemployment rate, it has been rising at least since September of 2023.

如果你看看失業率，至少從 2023 年 9 月開始它就一直在上升。

At the same time, inflation isn't solved at all.

同時，通膨問題一點都沒解決。

We actually hit a very good point in April at 2.3% inflation rate.

我們在 4 月份的通膨率曾達到非常不錯的 2.3%。

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這可能是我們有史以來最嚴重的經濟衰退--5 個跡象 (This Could Be The Worse Recession We Will Ever Have - 5 Signs)

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