Name: 住房危機已經開始--但沒人做好準備 (The Housing Crisis Has Already Begun – And Nobody’s Ready)
Uploaded: 2025-10-30T18:09:55.000Z
Duration: 14 min 50 s

Home buyers have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop since 2022.

自2022年以來，購房者一直在等待房貸利率降低。

But now experts are warning that mortgage rates are not coming down anytime soon.

但現在專家警告說，房貸利率短期內不會下降。

House prices have been rising faster than wages, at least since 1970s.

至少自1970年代以來，房價的漲幅一直快於薪資。

So getting a mortgage is the only option for the average Joe to ever buy a house.

所以，對普通人來說，獲得房貸是買房的唯一選擇。

But with every additional percentage in the mortgage rates, it adds up hundreds of thousands of dollars to the final price of the house.

但是，房貸利率每增加一個百分點，房子的最終價格就會增加數十萬美元。

That's why when the Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates in 2022, it angered a lot of people because it meant that they no longer can buy a house.

這就是為什麼當美國聯邦準備理事會在2022年提高利率時，惹惱了很多人，因為這意味著他們再也買不起房子了。

But it was an important action to bring down the inflation.

但這是降低通貨膨脹的重要舉措。

However, what is confusing is the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates from 5.5% to as low as 4%.

然而，令人困惑的是，美國聯邦準備理事會已將利率從5.5%降至4%。

But mortgage rates are still 6.3%, not that different from what they have been back in 2022.

但房貸利率仍為6.3%，與2022年的水準差異不大。

That is better than 2024 where mortgage rates crossed 7%.

這比2024年房貸利率突破7%來得好。

But it's still too expensive because house prices have spiked in the last few years.

但還是太貴了，因為過去幾年房價飆升。

So why aren't mortgage rates coming down now?

那為什麼現在房貸利率還沒降下來呢？

The Fed plans to further lower interest rates to as low as 3%.

聯準會計畫進一步降低利率至3%左右。

Mortgage rates historically have been very high.

If you look at the history of the United States, you will see that a mortgage rate of 6 or 7% were absolutely normal.

如果你看美國的歷史，你會發現6%或7%的房貸利率是完全正常的。

Back in 1970s and 80s, a mortgage rate of more than 10% was the normal thing.

回到1970年代和80年代，房貸利率超過10%是很常見的。

Then in 1990s, mortgage rates were about 6 to 9%.

然後在1990年代，房貸利率大約是6%到9%。

If you compare them to today's numbers, people would freak out looking that mortgage rates could be as high as 8 to 9%.

如果你跟現在的數字比，大家看到房貸利率高達8%或9%會嚇壞。

Even right before the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage rates were very close to what they are today, between 5 to 6%.

即使在2008年金融危機前夕，房貸利率也跟現在差不多，在5%到6%之間。

But 5% is also not really an ideal mortgage rate for most people.

但5%對大多數人來說也不是一個理想的房貸利率。

The problem with mortgages is that there are very risky loans.

房貸的問題在於有很多高風險的貸款。

Giving somebody a loan for the next 30 years is extremely risky because.

給一個人30年的貸款是極度冒險的，因為。

Because you don't know what is going to happen in 30 years from now.

因為你不知道30年後會發生什麼事。

There are so many risks that come alongside with it.

You can get sick, something could go wrong, you could lose your job, you could lose your family.

你可能會生病，可能會發生意外，可能會失去工作，可能會失去家人。

Even if you are financially responsible, at some point, life can take a completely different turn and you might default on your loan.

即使你財務管理得當，人生總有那麼一天會出現完全不同的轉折，你可能會無法償還貸款。

So nobody actually wants to give anybody a loan for 6 to 7% for the next 30 years.

所以沒有人真的想借給別人 6% 到 7% 的貸款，而且是 30 年。

So because economically it's a very Bad investment.

因為從經濟角度來看，這是一項非常糟糕的投資。

Even if you're perfect, even if you're the most financially responsible person out there, the house that you buy is risky because the neighborhood could change.

即使你很完美，即使你是最有財務責任感的人，你買的房子也有風險，因為社區可能會改變。

Today it's a very safe neighborhood, tomorrow it can turn into unsafe neighborhood and the value of the house is going to drop.

今天是個很安全的社區，明天可能就變得不安全，房子的價值也會隨之下降。

So God forbid, if you're going to default now, the bank that provided you with a 30 year mortgage cannot make up back their money.

所以，萬一你現在無法償還貸款，提供你 30 年房貸的銀行就無法拿回他們的錢。

And remember, a bank is not a charity organization.

而且請記住，銀行不是慈善機構。

Their job isn't to help you or help anyone else.

他們的工作不是要幫助你或任何人。

A bank is a business that is there to make money.

銀行是一家以營利為目的的企業。

So they not only have to make sure that they are not taking that much risk, but

所以他們不僅要確保自己承擔的風險不大，

at the same time they have to profit from that deal.

同時他們也要從這筆交易中獲利。

Otherwise they are simply wasting their money or time on you.

否則他們只是在浪費你的錢或時間。

Especially the 2008 financial crisis proved that there is a possibility that the housing market could crash.

特別是 2008 年的金融危機證明瞭房地產市場有可能崩盤。

And if that happens, suddenly the house loses 50 of its value and the bank has investors.

如果真的發生了，房子突然損失了 50% 的價值，而銀行還有投資者。

So that bank is responsible to the investors.

Suddenly the bank is going to declare bankruptcy because you defaulted on your loan.

突然間，銀行會宣佈破產，因為你無法償還貸款。

If mortgages are such a risky investment, why banks are still providing mortgages?

如果房貸是一項如此冒險的投資，為什麼銀行仍然提供房貸？

簡單來說，系統運作方式是這樣的。

This is the bank that provides you with a mortgage.

So it provides you with that 30 year loan and then it takes that mortgage and turns it into a mortgage backed securities.

所以銀行會提供你 30 年的貸款，然後將這個房貸轉變成房貸抵押證券。

The vast majority of the mortgages are turned into mortgage backed securities and sold to investors.

大部分的房貸都會被轉變成房貸抵押證券並賣給投資者。

And a very tiny percentage of mortgages are kept with the bank.

而極少部分的房貸會留在銀行手上。

And investors are willing to invest in these mortgage backed securities for multiple reasons.

投資者願意投資這些房貸抵押證券，原因有很多。

We have different kind of assets in the market.

We have treasury bills, the stock market, the bond market, corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities.

我們有國庫券、股票市場、債券市場、公司債和房貸抵押證券。

Mortgage backed securities are great from one side because they are backed by a real asset like the house.

房貸抵押證券從一方面來看很棒，因為它們有房子的真實資產作為抵押。

Of course there is a risk that the housing market could crash.

當然，房地產市場有崩盤的風險。

There is a risk that house prices in that particular neighborhood could go down.

該特定社區的房價有下跌的風險。

But nonetheless, it's a house, it's a real asset.

但即便如此，它還是一棟房子，是一個真實的資產。

是的，它確實存在一些風險，但是

investors are willing to allocate a portion of their capital into the mortgage backed securities.

投資者願意將一部分資金配置到房貸抵押證券中。

Not the vast majority of their wealth, but a small tiny portion of their wealth.

不是他們大部分的財富，而是他們一小部分的財富。

So the banks turn them into a mortgage backed securities, sell them to investors, and

所以銀行將它們變成房貸抵押證券，賣給投資者，然後

the demand from investors on the mortgage backed securities determines your mortgage rates.

投資者對房貸抵押證券的需求決定了你的房貸利率。

If investors are very hungry for this mortgage backed securities, suddenly they will allocate more capital into them.

如果投資者非常渴望這些房貸抵押證券，他們突然就會投入更多資金。

And banks can offer them a lower interest rate or a lower return rate.

銀行可以提供給他們較低的利率或較低的報酬率。

If they can offer them a lower rate of return, then they can offer you a lower mortgage rate.

如果他們能提供較低的報酬率，那麼他們就能提供你較低的房貸利率。

Let's say you want to borrow money and you start offering 1%.

假設你想借錢，然後你開始出價 1%。

If you are financially responsible, if you pay your bills, if your friend has extra money, then maybe your friend is going to offer you that loan at 1% interest rate.

如果你財務狀況良好，準時繳費，而且你朋友有多餘的錢，那麼你的朋友或許會用 1% 的利率借錢給你。

But if your friend does not have the money, or for example, you are not financially responsible, then you will have to offer a higher interest rate.

但如果你的朋友沒錢，或者，舉例來說，你財務狀況不佳，那麼你就必須提出更高的利率。

So you start offering 2%, 3% and then 4%.

所以你開始出價 2%、3%，然後 4%。

Until you find somebody who is willing to pay you that loan.

直到你找到願意借錢給你的人。

Until you find somebody who is ready to provide you with that loan.

直到你找到願意提供這筆貸款給你的人。

But on the other side, if you want to borrow money and suddenly everybody is like, oh, take my money, then you will offer the lowest interest rates possible because there are so many people are willing to loan their money to you.

但另一方面，如果你想借錢，突然間大家都在說，「喔，拿我的錢吧」，那你就會提出盡可能低的利率，因為有太多人願意借錢給你了。

完全一樣的邏輯也適用於這裡。

Despite the fact that mortgage backed securities are being backed by a mortgage, the 2008 financial crisis proved to investors that anything could happen and even a security that is being backed by a real asset could crash.

儘管房地產抵押貸款證券是由抵押貸款支持的，但 2008 年的金融危機向投資者證明瞭任何事情都可能發生，即使是具有真實資產支持的證券也可能崩盤。

And that's why usually mortgage backed securities have a much higher interest rate compared to the inflation.

這也是為什麼房地產抵押貸款證券的利率通常會比通貨膨脹率高很多。

So if inflation is about 3%, then mortgage backed securities should offer 6 to 7%.

所以如果通貨膨脹率大約是 3%，那麼房地產抵押貸款證券應該提供 6% 到 7%。

If inflation is about 5%, then MBS should offer about 9 to 10% and so on and so forth to attract enough investors.

如果通貨膨脹率大約是 5%，那麼 MBS 應該提供大約 9% 到 10%，以此類推，以吸引足夠的投資者。

Otherwise, it doesn't make sense for these investors to get into mortgage backed securities.

否則，這些投資者投資房地產抵押貸款證券就沒有意義了。

他們寧願投資美國國庫券或股市，在那裡他們賺的錢會比在房地產市場多得多。

treasury bills or the stock market where they can make far more money than they can make in the housing market.

真正問題是，在 2020 年和 2021 年，房貸利率怎麼會低至 2.5%。

The real question is how was it possible that in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates were as low as 2.5%.

事實上，如果你仔細看看房貸利率，你會發現從 2009 年之後開始，房貸利率就降到了大約 5%、4%。

In fact, if you zoom into the mortgage rates, you'll find out that starting after 2009, mortgage rates dropped to about 5, 4%.

And in some years, 30 year mortgage rates were below 4%.

有些年份，30 年房貸利率甚至低於 4%。

Who are these investors who bought so many mortgage backed securities?

究竟是哪些投資者買了這麼多房地產抵押貸款證券？

那時候的通貨膨脹率大約是 2% 或 2.5%。

Based on everything that I have explained in this video.

根據我在這個影片中解釋的所有內容。

To understand what is happening here, we have to understand who is the investor that invested so much into the mortgage backed securities.

要了解這裡發生了什麼事，我們必須先了解是哪個投資者大量投資了房地產抵押貸款證券。

The largest investor in the US market is the Federal Reserve.

美國市場最大的投資者是美國聯邦準備理事會。

And if you pull out the financial statements of the Fed, you will quickly realize that the Federal Reserve starting in 2009 started massively buying mortgage backed securities.

如果你拿出聯準會的財務報表，你會很快發現，聯準會從 2009 年開始就開始大量收購房地產抵押貸款證券。

字幕列表影片播放

住房危機已經開始--但沒人做好準備 (The Housing Crisis Has Already Begun – And Nobody’s Ready)

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