Name: 人工智能產業的現狀讓我大吃一驚 (The State of the AI Industry is Freaking Me Out)
Uploaded: 2025-10-30T08:32:50.000Z
Duration: 16 min 30 s

I love a good graphical representation of reality.

我喜歡真實世界的優良圖形表示。

現在，它們從來都不是完美的。

There's always data that's being left out.

But I'm going to talk today about one that contains a lot of information and was took a little bit of time for me to parse and once I did, it kind of terrified me.

但我今天要講一個包含很多資訊，而且我花了一點時間才解析出來，一旦我解析出來，就讓我有點害怕的東西。

What a good little visualization we have on our hands here.

我們手上這裡有個很棒的小視覺化。

How Nvidia and OpenAI fuel the AI money machine.

Nvidia 和 OpenAI 如何為 AI 搖錢樹提供動力。

Nvidia makes the chips that do the compute, that creates the artificial intelligence systems.

Nvidia 生產用於運算、創造人工智慧系統的晶片。

OpenAI is the biggest company that creates the systems that use those chips to create artificial intelligence systems that do stuff.

OpenAI 是最大的公司，它創造了使用這些晶片來創造能做事的 AI 系統。

also all of the other things that it does, including, you know, Sora 2, which you've heard my opinion on.

還有它做的所有其他事情，包括，你知道的，Sora 2，你聽過我的看法。

AMD is another chip maker like Nvidia, Oracle and a few others in here like coreweave, possibly some others.

AMD 就像 Nvidia 一樣是另一家晶片製造商，還有 Oracle 和這裡的幾家公司，像是 Coreweave，可能還有一些其他的。

I actually don't know what all these companies are.

我其實不知道這些公司都是做什麼的。

我想 N Scale 也許也是其中之一。

Little dot, Oracle and Core Weave at least are the companies that have built like the data centers and they buy chips from Nvidia and then they like lease out the compute.

小點，Oracle 和 Core Weave 至少是那些建置了資料中心的公司，他們從 Nvidia 購買晶片，然後再出租運算能力。

So basically into intel and AMD and Nvidia sell chips to the AI companies or to the data center companies, and

所以基本上 Intel 和 AMD 以及 Nvidia 把晶片賣給 AI 公司或資料中心公司，

then the data center companies sell the compute to the AI companies.

然後資料中心公司再把運算能力賣給 AI 公司。

Sometimes the middleman running the data center is there, sometimes it's not there.

有時候會有中間商在營運資料中心，有時候則沒有。

But in either case, Nvidia is doing very well because so many people want their chips right now.

但無論如何，Nvidia 都做得很好，因為現在有很多人想要他們的晶片。

But we can think of it as like AI companies, chip companies, and then the middlemen, compute companies.

但我們可以把它想成是：AI 公司、晶片公司，然後是中間商，也就是運算公司。

What the AI companies want is to be able to keep existing.

AI 公司想要的是能夠持續存在。

Right now, OpenAI worth $500 billion, has $12 billion of revenue.

目前，價值 5000 億美元的 OpenAI，營收為 120 億美元。

That's the amount of money they made total.

They make way more money than they spend because people really want their chips right now.

他們賺的錢遠遠超過花的錢，因為大家現在都很想要他們的晶片。

There's a huge amount of demand for those chips.

That's why they are the largest company in the world and are one company that is worth more than the entire Pharmaceutical industry combined.

這就是為什麼他們是世界上最大的公司，也是一家市值超過整個製藥業總和的公司。

But even then, even absolutely bonkers margin that they have right now, their price to earnings ratio is extremely high.

但即使是他們現在非常瘋狂的利潤率，本益比也極高。

So the value of all Nvidia stock combined is much higher than you would see with a normal company, which indicates to belief among investors that the prices of those chips will keep going up and the number of chips produced will keep going up.

所以所有 Nvidia 股票加起來的價值，遠高於一般公司，這顯示投資人相信這些晶片的價格會持續上漲，而且生產的晶片數量也會持續增加。

So Nvidia desperately wants to keep the prices of their chips the same or higher.

所以 Nvidia 非常希望維持他們晶片價格不變或更高。

They want the demand to increase faster than supply, but

他們希望需求成長速度比供應快，但是

they also want to increase supply dramatically so that they can sell more things.

他們也希望大幅增加供應，這樣他們才能賣更多東西。

So like more sales and more profit equals more earnings.

所以像是更多的銷售和更多的利潤等於更多的收益。

People who are sort of on the AI isn't a bubble train right now.

現在那些認為 AI 不是保麗龍的人。

Now what they're saying is, well, if it's a bubble, why are the prices of Nvidia chips continuing to increase?

他們現在說的是，嗯，如果這是保麗龍，為什麼 Nvidia 晶片的價格還在持續上漲？

這也不能完全說是沒有道理的。

The demand for Nvidia chips far outstrips the supply of Nvidia chips.

Nvidia 晶片的市場需求遠遠超過了 Nvidia 晶片的供應量。

And the idea is that will continue to be the case even as supply increases.

而且這個想法是，即使供應量增加，情況也會持續如此。

But first, quickly, the sponsor of this video, Ground News.

但首先，快速說一下，本影片的贊助商是 Ground News。

one thing I notice is that when I start to like, have a preference for a kind of content, YouTube is like, here's all of that kind of content.

我注意到一件事，就是當我開始喜歡某種類型的內容時，YouTube 就會說，這裡有所有那種類型的內容。

And that can get my head stuck in a reality that might not be actually representative of reality.

這可能會讓我陷入一個可能並非真正代表現實的現實裡。

Ground News 是一個應用程式和網站。

I'm on the website version right now that gathers how different outlets cover the same story all in one place.

我現在用的是網站版本，它會把不同媒體如何報導同一則新聞都收集在一個地方。

It shows you who's reporting what they're saying and even where they fall on the political spectrum.

它會顯示誰在報導什麼，甚至他們在政治光譜上的位置。

There's a little blind spot bias feature where sometimes you do find that the stuff that is really covered on one side or the other is meant to outrage you a little bit.

有一個小小的盲點偏誤功能，有時候你會發現，某一方特別報導的東西，其實是為了讓你有點生氣。

But there is this story about Governor Newsom signing a new law to protect kids from the risks of AI chatbots.

但有個關於州長 Newsom 簽署新法案保護孩童免受 AI 哈拉機器人風險的新聞。

I had not heard about this at all until I like went on and there it was not covered really by many people at all, but

我完全沒聽過這件事，直到我上去看，發現沒有多少人報導，而且

mostly covered by organizations on the left.

One of my favorite things is that over here you can actually like see all the outlets that have covered it.

我最喜歡的功能之一是，在這裡你可以看到所有報導過這則新聞的媒體。

And then you can pick the ones that you already know, do a good job.

然後你可以選擇你已經知道報導得很不錯的媒體。

So like Los Angeles Times or the ap, also the ones that you might have already paid for and not have to worry about a paywall, which I sometimes do with the LA Times.

像是 Los Angeles Times 或 ap，還有你可能已經付費訂閱、不用擔心付費牆的媒體，我對 LA Times 有時候就是這樣。

It requires chatbot operators to have procedures to prevent the production of suicide or self harm content and put in guardrails such as referring users to a suicide hotline or crisis text line.

這要求哈拉機器人營運商制定程序，以防止產生自殺或自殘內容，並設置護欄，例如將使用者轉介到自殺熱線或危機文字訊息服務。

This seems like a good idea and unfortunately I know why they have had to do this.

這聽起來是個好主意，而且很不幸我知道為什麼他們必須這麼做。

Some of the other legislation he signed tackled issues such as age verification, social media warning labels and the spread of AI non consensual sexually explicit content.

他簽署的其他一些立法處理了諸如年齡驗證、社群媒體警告標籤以及 AI 非經同意的性暗示內容傳播等問題。

And again, I will say one thing I like about ground news is that it doesn't break the business model of the news.

再說一次，我會說我喜歡 Ground News 的一點是，它並沒有破壞新聞的商業模式。

You can go to the place and actually look at the thing, whether you signed up for the paywall for that specific outlet or whether they're ad supported like the AP is.

你可以去那裡實際查看內容，無論你是否訂閱了該特定出版品的付費牆，或者他們是否像 AP 那樣透過廣告支持。

One of my biggest frustrations with the Internet is not knowing whether I'm informed or just trapped in an algorithmic bubble.

我對網路最大的挫折之一是，我不知道自己是被告知了，還是隻是被困在演算法的氣泡裡。

You can see with your eyes how different headlines are between Fox News or Reuters or the Guardian and it can help you realize why people are having totally different conversations about the same event.

你可以親眼看到 Fox News、Reuters 或 The Guardian 之間的標題有多大的不同，這能幫助你意識到為什麼人們對同一事件會有完全不同的討論。

Subscribe to get 40% off the Vantage plan with the QR code on the screen right now or at the link in the description, which is ground news.

立即掃描螢幕上的 QR 條碼或點擊說明中的連結訂閱 Vantage 方案，可享 7 折優惠，該方案是 Ground News。

It's a pretty cool product that saves me time and it means that I'm not always finding my news on social media feeds which are not known for their accuracy or nuance.

這是一個很棒的產品，能幫我省下時間，也代表我不用總是從社群媒體的動態消息裡找新聞，因為那些地方本來就不以準確或細膩著稱。

We're gonna leave the middlemen aside right now and we're gonna look at the AI companies because then what you have is OpenAI, a company that's now worth a half a trillion dollars.

我們現在先不管中間商，來看看 AI 公司，因為那裡有 OpenAI，一家現在市值半兆美元的公司。

According to a recent fundraise, OpenAI has $12 billion of revenue, it has no profit, and

根據最近一次募資，OpenAI 有 120 億美元的營收，但沒有獲利，而且

And with this $12 billion of revenue, they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on these chips.

而憑藉這 120 億美元的營收，他們在這些晶片上花費了數千億美元。

And OpenAI, I don't want to say that like they couldn't do more than they're doing right now, but

至於 OpenAI，我不是說他們現在做不到更多，但

They've been selling their services for a while now.

他們已經賣服務賣了一段時間了。

Could they increase the price of their services?

他們有可能會提高服務的價格嗎？

Do they seem to think that that would be the thing that does it for them?

他們是不是覺得這樣做就能成功？

Like they're creating feeds inside of their system.

就像他們在系統裡建立了一個資訊流。

Now they've got a feed inside of ChatGPT where like when you open it it's like, hey, just like read some stuff.

現在他們在 ChatGPT 裡面有個資訊流，就像你打開它時，它會說，嘿，就像讀一些東西。

Just read some stuff that I prepared for you instead of asking me questions.

讀一些我為你準備好的東西，而不是問我問題。

Here's stuff that we think based on what you've talked to me about before, you might be interested in.

這是我們覺得，根據你之前跟我聊過的內容，你可能會感興趣的東西。

And the play there is obvious to me, which is they've said that they don't want to put ads inside of the experience of you just asking it questions, but

對我來說，他們的策略很明顯，就是他們說過不想在你只是問它問題的體驗中加入廣告，但是

they haven't said that they won't put ads inside of the stuff that it just provides to you.

他們沒說過他們不會在它直接提供給你的東西裡加入廣告。

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人工智能產業的現狀讓我大吃一驚 (The State of the AI Industry is Freaking Me Out)

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