Name: 美國銀行出了大問題 (Something is going deeply wrong with US Banks)
Uploaded: 2025-10-26T18:26:47.000Z
Duration: 15 min 20 s

情態副詞

There is something seriously wrong in the banking sector.

基礎被動語態

While everybody is distracted by the AI bubble, there is a crisis brewing in the banking sector.

當大家都在關注 AI 保麗龍時，銀行業正醞釀著一場危機。

Whenever there has been a banking crisis in the history of the United States, it always ended up crushing the entire economy.

美國歷史上，每次發生銀行危機，最終總是會摧毀整個經濟。

And this crisis could potentially be much bigger than the crisis of 2008.

而這次危機的規模，可能會比 2008 年的危機還要大。

If you think that I am exaggerating, let me show you exactly what is happening.

如果你覺得我太誇張了，讓我來告訴你到底發生了什麼事。

But before we get into that, we have to understand the banks works.

但在深入探討之前，我們要先了解銀行是怎麼運作的。

A bank is a financial institution that takes money from depositors such as you and then loans that money to anyone else who needs that money in form of mortgages, auto loans, credit card loans.

銀行是一家金融機構，它會收取存款人（像你一樣）的錢，然後將這些錢以房貸、汽車貸款、信用卡貸款的形式，借給其他需要用錢的人。

But usually whenever you deposit your money, that money doesn't instantly go to the depositors because the bank needs clients to loan that money.

但通常，當你存錢進去時，這筆錢不會馬上就給其他客戶，因為銀行需要有客戶來借這些錢。

Which is why sitting on tens of billions of dollars is extremely unprofitable.

這就是為什麼銀行裡有數十億美元的現金，卻極度不賺錢。

Imagine you were a bank and you now got so much money from depositors every single day that you're sitting on that money.

想像一下，你是一家銀行，每天都有這麼多存款人存錢進來，你手上的現金堆積如山。

you promise to pay interest to your clients, which is why usually the banks take that money and invest it in the bond market by buying government bonds.

你承諾要支付利息給你的客戶，這也是為什麼銀行通常會把這些錢拿去投資債券市場，購買政府債券。

Government bonds provide you with some kind of a stable return.

政府債券能提供你某種程度的穩定回報。

And U.S. treasury bills are considered safe havens, the safest investments possible.

而美國國庫券被認為是避險資產，是最安全的投資。

And you can easily turn them into cash whenever you need them.

而且你需要的時候，你可以輕鬆地將它們轉換成現金。

So if suddenly you have a lot of clients, you can turn your treasury bills into real cash and and provide loans to these clients.

所以如果突然有很多客戶，你就可以將你的國庫券變成實質現金，並借給這些客戶。

The US Bond market is so huge that hundreds of billions of dollars of transactions are taking place every single day.

美國債券市場非常龐大，每天都有數千億美元的交易在進行。

So you can easily sell your Treasuries to asset managers, to other banks, or even the Federal Reserve.

所以你可以輕鬆地將你的國庫券賣給資產管理公司、其他銀行，甚至是聯邦準備理事會。

Which is why if you have a lot of bonds, people would consider those government bonds equivalent to cash.

這也是為什麼如果你有很多債券，人們會認為這些政府債券等同於現金。

Even though that these treasury bills are as good as cash at the end of the day they're assets and their prices fluctuate in the market based on demand and supply.

儘管這些國庫券最終和現金一樣好用，但它們畢竟是資產，價格會根據市場的供需而波動。

If there is a lot of demand for these government bonds, suddenly the price of bonds increase.

所以如果這些政府債券的需求量突然變大，債券的價格就會上漲。

If there is very few demand and there is a lot of supply for these government bonds, suddenly the price of these government bonds are going to tank and they will worth a lot less.

如果這些政府債券的需求量很少，供應量又很多，這些政府債券的價格就會暴跌，價值也會大打折扣。

If you have a thousand dollar government bond that pays 2% in interest rates and suddenly the new Government bonds pays 5% in interest rate.

如果你有一千美元的政府債券，年息是2%，但突然間新的政府債券年息變成5%。

Now the demand for older government bonds that pay interest rate suddenly fallen.

現在，那些支付舊年息的政府債券需求就突然下降了。

So the price of these government bonds are going to fall.

所以這些政府債券的價格就會下跌。

You no longer can sell it for $1,000, even though that you can get A thousand dollars.

你不能再賣到一千美元，即使你最終可以拿到一千美元。

At the end of the day, since the new government bonds are going to pay you a much higher interest rate.

說到底，因為新的政府債券會支付你高得多的年息。

Understanding that dynamic in the market is extremely important since banks are sitting on trillions of dollars of government bonds.

理解市場上的這種動態非常重要，因為銀行持有數兆美元的政府債券。

If you take the entire industry, usually even smaller banks, have billions of dollars of these government bonds.

如果看整個產業，通常即使是小型銀行，也持有數十億美元的這些政府債券。

What happens if the demand for US Treasuries fall suddenly?

如果美國國庫券的需求突然下降，會發生什麼事？

Bond prices are going to fall dramatically, which means that on paper, these banks are going to make a lot of losses.

債券價格會大幅下跌，這意味著帳面上，這些銀行將會蒙受鉅額損失。

Imagine you are a bank and you have $100 billion worth of government bonds and suddenly you need cash.

想像一下，你是一家銀行，手上有價值一千億美元的政府債券，但突然你需要現金。

However, because there is very little demand for these government bonds, on paper, their prices have fallen.

然而，由於這些政府債券的需求非常低，帳面上，它們的價格已經下跌了。

Unless you sell these investments, then you are going to realize those losses.

除非你賣掉這些投資，否則你將會實現這些損失。

For now, these losses are just on papers.

目前，這些損失都只是帳面上的。

If you wait enough for the market to correct itself, maybe the prices of these government bonds are going to jump back and they will worth as much as they did in the past.

如果你等到市場自行修正，也許這些政府債券的價格會回升，它們的價值將會回到過去。

But because on paper, theoretically, if you sell your government bonds today, you won't be able to pay off your depositors, that is going to create a panic in the market.

但是，因為帳面上，理論上，如果你今天賣掉你的政府債券，你將無法償還你的存款人，這將會在市場上引發恐慌。

If I keep my money in your bank and on paper, if I see that theoretically there is a chance that you won't be able to pay me back, I will instantly run to the bank and will withdraw all of my money.

如果我把錢存進你們銀行，而且帳面上，理論上，我看不到你們有辦法還我錢，我就會立刻衝去銀行把我的錢全部領出來。

I would rather deposit it in another bank because I don't want to take that kind of a risk.

我寧願把錢存到別家銀行，因為我不想冒那種風險。

What if suddenly I won't be able to withdraw all of my money?

萬一我突然領不到我的錢怎麼辦？

Which is why that often creates a panic in the market and leads to a bank run when everybody suddenly rushes to the banks to withdraw their money.

這就是為什麼常常會在市場上引發恐慌，導致銀行擠兌，因為大家突然都衝去銀行領錢。

So suddenly the bank will run out of money and it will declare bankruptcy.

所以銀行突然就會沒錢了，然後宣佈破產。

And that happened multiple times in the U.S. history.

這在美國的歷史上發生過好幾次。

The most recent famous example is the Silicon Valley Bank.

最近一個有名的例子就是矽谷銀行。

During 2020 and 2021, when the economy was filled with cash, a lot of companies, especially startups, were left with billions of dollars of cash and they had to deposit that money somewhere.

在2020年和2021年，當時經濟充斥著現金，很多公司，尤其是新創公司，手邊都有數十億美元的現金，他們必須把這些錢存到某個地方。

So a lot of money went into Silicon Valley Bank.

所以很多錢就流進了矽谷銀行。

Between 2020 and 2021, 189 billion deposited in Silicon Valley Bank.

在2020年到2021年間，矽谷銀行存入了1890億美元。

Silicon Valley bank was sitting on so much investments and because inflation was running very high, SVB had to do something, it had to invest that money somewhere.

矽谷銀行手握這麼多投資，加上當時通膨很高，SVB 必須做點什麼，得把錢投到某個地方。

So they invested pretty much most of that money in the safest investments possible, the U.S. treasury bills.

所以他們幾乎把大部分的錢都投資在最安全的投資標的，也就是美國國庫券。

But back in the days or back at the end of 2021.

不過在當時，或者說在 2021 年底的時候。

The interest rates were so low and U.S. treasuries would pay around 1 to 2% in interest rates.

當時的利率非常低，美國國庫券的利息大約只有 1% 到 2%。

So most of that money went into the government bonds.

所以大部分的錢就流向了政府債券。

Suddenly in 2022, the Federal Reserve started to hike interest rates.

突然在 2022 年，聯準會開始調升利率。

So the new government bonds suddenly had a much higher interest rate.

所以新的政府債券的利率就突然變高了。

Between January 2022 to August 2022, interest rates were risen from about 0.5% to as high as 5.5%.

從 2022 年 1 月到 2022 年 8 月，利率從大約 0.5% 上升到最高的 5.5%。

Why would you buy a government bond that pays you a 2% in interest rates when you can buy a new government bond that pays you for 5.5% interest rates?

既然你可以買一張利率 5.5% 的新政府債券，為什麼還要買一張利率只有 2% 的政府債券呢？

While Silicon Valley bank did not make any real losses because it was not intending to sell those Treasuries in the first place, on paper, the prices of these government bonds suddenly tank.

雖然矽谷銀行實際上並沒有任何虧損，因為他們本來就不打算賣掉那些國庫券，但在帳面上，這些政府債券的價格卻突然崩跌了。

Just on paper, these losses are unrealized.

這些虧損只是帳面上的，還沒實現。

Investors on the other side looked at the Silicon Valley bank and realized that, wait a second.

另一邊的投資人看著矽谷銀行，就意識到，等等。

Theoretically, Silicon Valley bank cannot pay off every single depositor.

理論上，矽谷銀行無法支付每一個存款人。

Which is why I will rush to this Silicon Valley bank and withdraw all of my money.

這就是為什麼我要衝到矽谷銀行，把我的錢全部領出來。

So investors, one after another rushed into the bank, withdraw all of their money in a single day.

所以投資人一個接一個衝進銀行，一天內就把錢全部領光。

People withdrew like $42 billion out of the bank.

人們從銀行領走了大約 420 億美元。

It could not pay off its depositors, which is why it declared bankruptcy and the government took over the bank.

這導致它無法償還存款人，這就是它宣佈破產並由政府接管銀行的原因。

While treasury bills are consider the safest investments because they pay you interest and they're backed by the US Government and you can instantly turn them into cash.

雖然國庫券被認為是最安全的投資，因為它們會支付你利息，而且有美國政府擔保，你可以立即將它們變現。

Their prices fluctuate in the market and you have to take that into consideration.

它們的價格會在市場上波動，你必須將這一點考慮進去。

And here is what happened in 2022 when the federal Reserve hiked the interest rates, suddenly the rates on the new government bonds suddenly jumped to about 5.5%.

接著是 2022 年發生的事，當時聯準會提高利率，新的政府債券利率突然飆升至約 5.5%。

These are the yields for two year government bonds.

這是兩年期政府債券的殖利率。

The yields on 10 year government bonds have risen to as high as 5.

十年期政府債券的殖利率已升至 5% 的高點。

Imagine you have the safest investment possible that pays you 5.5% in real cash.

想像一下，你擁有最安全的投資，能讓你獲得 5.5% 的現金回報。

What do you think investors have done in 2022?

你認為投資人在 2022 年做了什麼？

Everybody who had extra money suddenly started investing in the U.S. treasury bills.

所有有閒錢的人都開始投資美國國庫券。

That is the reason why Warren Buffett invested all of the Berkshire Hathaway's cash into U.S. treasury bills.

這就是為什麼巴菲特將波克夏海瑟威的所有現金都投入美國國庫券。

That is why Warren Buffett is sitting on $350 billion of U.S. treasury bills.

這就是為什麼巴菲特持有 3,500 億美元的美國國庫券。

That investment is very safe and it pays you cash of 5.5%.

這項投資非常安全，能讓你獲得 5.5% 的現金回報。

You won't be able to find that kind of investment anywhere else.

In fact, that encouraged a lot of other commercial banks, mutual funds, investment funds to purchase a lot of US Government bonds.

事實上，這鼓勵了許多其他商業銀行、共同基金、投資基金大量購買美國政府債券。

In fact, foreign investors, foreign governments, foreign pension funds looked at this and they're like, wait a second, this sounds like a fantastic investment.

事實上，外國投資人、外國政府、外國退休基金看到這點，他們就想，等一下，這聽起來是個很棒的投資。

Canada, Suddenly, starting from 2022, started massively investing in the US treasury bills.

加拿大，突然之間，從 2022 年開始，就開始大量投資美國國庫券。

And that's not just Canada, that was the rest of the world.

這不只是加拿大，而是全世界。

Because this was one of the greatest investments possible.

因為這是史上最棒的投資之一。

Yes, inflation in 2022 rose dramatically in the United States.

是的，2022年美國的通貨膨脹急劇上升。

However, because the Fed hiked interest rates, everybody knew that the inflation is going to go down to about 2 to 3%.

不過，由於聯準會升息，大家都知道通貨膨脹將會降到大約2%到3%。

While if you buy a 10 year US treasury bills that pays you 5.5% interest rate, you could be rece cash over the next 10 years.

如果你買一張殖利率5.5%的十年期美國國庫券，未來十年你都可以收到現金。

It was literally one of the best investments possible.

這真的是史上最棒的投資之一。

So the demand for US treasury bills dramatically rose to all time high.

是以，美國國庫券的需求急劇上升到歷史新高。

On the other side, the cost of servicing the debt for the US government also rose dramatically.

另一方面，美國政府的債務利息支出也急劇增加。

Which is why in 2022 and 2023, the US government paid almost a trillion dollars in interest payments.

這也是為什麼在2022年和2023年，美國政府支付了將近一兆美元的利息。

Now here's the problem with the banking sector.

Inflation hasn't been solved yet and inflation is still around 3.3%.

通貨膨脹還沒解決，而且通膨率仍在3.3%左右。

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美國銀行出了大問題 (Something is going deeply wrong with US Banks)

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