Name: 美元正在崩潰，各國悄然拒絕美元 (Countries Are Quietly Rejecting US Dollar as The Dollar is Collapsing)
Uploaded: 2025-10-13T07:39:14.000Z
Duration: 19 min 10 s

We are on the brink of another major shift in the global financial system, the system that has ruled the world over the last eight years.

我們正處於全球金融體系又一次重大轉變的邊緣，這個體系主宰了過去八年的世界。

情態助動詞 B1

For some people this might seem like an exaggeration, but

對某些人來說，這聽起來可能有點誇張，但

this is the greatest threat the US Dollar has ever faced.

這是美元前所未有的最大威脅。

For some people this might not seem clear.

對某些人來說，這可能不太清楚。

The world has been talking about the changing world order over the last 20 years, but

過去20年來，全世界都在談論世界秩序的改變，但

However, if you pay a very close attention, it is happening right in front of us and it will continue happening.

然而，如果你仔細觀察，你會發現它就在我們眼前發生，而且會持續下去。

So let me show you step by step how the global financial system is changing and how it will continue changing to a completely different system where the US Dollar is no longer the global reserve currency.

所以，讓我一步一步告訴你，全球金融體系是如何改變的，以及它將如何持續演變成一個全新的體系，在這個體系中，美元將不再是全球儲備貨幣。

If you look at the data, you will find out that the US Dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world because almost 58% of the global reserve currency is in dollars.

如果你看看數據，你會發現美元仍然是世界上最強勢的貨幣，因為全球儲備貨幣中將近58%是美元。

The only real competitor the dollar has is the Euro that stands at around 20%.

美元真正的勁敵只有歐元，大約佔20%。

That number has been fluctuating over the last couple of years.

這個數字在過去幾年一直在波動。

The real danger that the dollar has faced once was back in 1980s and 1990s when the US dollar as the global reserve currency fell below 50% to 47%.

美元曾經面臨的真正危險是在1980年代和1990年代，當時美元作為全球儲備貨幣的比例跌破50%，降至47%。

So if you compare it to today's numbers, it seems like the United States only became powerful.

所以如果跟今天的數字比較，美國好像才剛變強大。

But that only happened because the United States almost lost the competition to Japan.

但這一切之所以發生，是因為美國幾乎輸給了日本。

As the world's largest economy, the dollar was too powerful.

作為世界最大的經濟體，美元太強勢了。

So Ronald Reagan signed an agreement at a Plaza Accord with other major countries that they will devalue the dollar.

所以雷根總統簽署了廣場協議，和其他主要國家達成協議，要讓美元貶值。

The so when the dollar was devalued, the Japanese economy turned into a bubble.

於是美元貶值後，日本經濟就泡沫化了。

And if you take it at value basis, then the dollar was then the dollar amounted to a smaller share of the global reserve currency.

如果以價值來看，當時美元在全球儲備貨幣中的佔比就變小了。

但後來我們都知道發生了什麼事。

The Japanese economy collapsed and by the year 2000 it almost represented 71%.

日本經濟崩潰，到了2000年，日圓佔比幾乎是71%。

The real difference that you can find out is by looking at the numbers historically because in 1965 and 1970s, 85% of the global reserve currencies were in dollars.

真正能讓你發現的差異，是看歷史數據，因為在1965年和1970年代，美元在全球儲備貨幣中的佔比是85%。

So this was the dollar that dominated the entire world.

And all other currencies, including the British pound that was the previous global reserve currency only represented around 11% of the global reserve currencies.

而其他所有貨幣，包括先前是全球儲備貨幣的英鎊，在全球儲備貨幣中的佔比僅約11%。

And this is very interesting scenario that between 1965 to 1975, the British pound lost half of its global reserve currency and it fell from 25% to as low as 11%.

這是一個非常有趣的狀況，在1965到1975年間，英鎊失去了它一半的全球儲備貨幣地位，從25%跌至最低11%。

What is more interesting is the dollar that represented almost 85% back in 1970s.

更有趣的是，在1970年代佔了將近85%的美元。

Today it fell to 57% and the trend is very clear.

今天它跌到了57%，趨勢非常明顯。

With each consecutive year, the dollar's role in the global financial system is becoming less and less relevant.

隨著年復一年，美元在全球金融體系中的角色越來越不重要。

The real question is, why do we need the global reserve currency in the first place?

真正的問題是，我們首先為什麼需要全球儲備貨幣？

When we understand this, the then we understand which currency will be the next global reserve currency.

當我們理解了這一點，我們就能理解哪種貨幣將會是下一個全球儲備貨幣。

There are four fundamental reasons why we absolutely need the global reserve currency.

我們絕對需要全球儲備貨幣，有四個根本原因。

When you're trading within the borders of any country, let's take China, you can use the local currency.

當你在任何國家境內進行貿易時，以中國為例，你可以使用當地貨幣。

Inside China, everybody uses the Chinese yuan.

在中國境內，大家使用人民幣。

Inside Canada, everybody uses the Canadian dollars.

在加拿大境內，大家使用加幣。

Inside the United States, you can use the US Dollar.

在美國境內，你可以使用美元。

But what if countries want to trade with one another?

但如果國家之間想互相貿易呢？

What if you want to bring bananas from South America?

如果你想從南美洲進口香蕉呢？

What if you want to bring iPhones from China?

That's when you need the global reserve currency so that these countries can trade with one another.

這時候你就需要全球儲備貨幣，這樣這些國家才能互相貿易。

The second reason is paying off foreign debt.

Countries often borrow money from one another, especially when they are in a financial crisis.

國家之間經常互相借錢，尤其是在金融危機的時候。

And paying you in your local currency that you can print is unsustainable.

而用你自己的、可以隨意印的貨幣來支付，是不可持續的。

Which is why everybody wants a currency that is so stable, that is so huge, nobody is worried that currency is going to collapse anytime soon.

這就是為什麼大家想要一種非常穩定、非常龐大的貨幣，讓大家都不擔心這種貨幣會隨時崩潰。

The third reason is to stabilize your own currency.

第三個原因是穩定自己的貨幣。

Imagine you have a little small country such as Singapore, and they have their own currency.

想像一下，你擁有一個像新加坡這樣的小國家，他們有自己的貨幣。

Yes, Singapore is a very successful country, especially economically.

沒錯，新加坡是一個非常成功的國家，尤其是在經濟方面。

However, it's a tiny country with a GDP of about 200 to $300 billion.

然而，它是一個小國，GDP 大約在 2000 億到 3000 億美元之間。

And for them to stabilize their currency in the forex market, they need another currency that they can trust so that they can keep it as a reserve for.

為了讓他們在匯市穩定自己的貨幣，他們需要另一種他們可以信任的貨幣，這樣他們才能將其作為儲備。

So when they need it, they can use it to buy and sell their own currency in such a way that they will stabilize their currency in the forex market.

所以當他們需要的時候，他們可以用它來買賣自己的貨幣，以穩定他們在匯市上的貨幣。

And you can't be using any random currency.

You need to use the currency that you can trust.

And that's the currency that we call the global reserve currency.

這就是我們所說的全球儲備貨幣。

And finally, because everybody wants to invest, there is so much wealth in the world, there are so many rich people in the world, and

最後，因為每個人都想投資，世界上有這麼多財富，有這麼多有錢人，

nobody wants to simply sit on their cash.

There's so many people who want to become rich.

And in order to invest in different currencies, in order to invest in different countries, you need one single currency, or at least a currency that you can trust and investors from all across the globe can trust so they can start investing.

為了投資不同的貨幣，為了投資不同的國家，你需要一種單一貨幣，或者至少是一種你可以信任，而且全球投資者都能信任的貨幣，這樣他們才能開始投資。

And the only currency today that can fill all of these four requirements is the US Dollar.

而今天能滿足這四個條件的唯一貨幣就是美元。

However, the dollar is on track and it's falling down.

So this is exactly most likely that it's going to happen by 2030 because more and countries are rejecting the dollar.

所以這很可能就是到 2030 年會發生的情況，因為越來越多的國家正在拒絕美元。

More and more countries are moving to different currencies, and that's because the US Debt is becoming unsustainable.

越來越多國家開始使用其他貨幣，這是因為美國的債務變得無法持續。

Now, for some people, the US Debt is not a problem.

現在，對某些人來說，美國的債務不是問題。

But if you cannot pay off your debt, if you cannot pay off the interest on your debt, that's when things get out of control.

但如果你無法償還債務，無法支付債務的利息，事情就會失控。

When you borrow money in the beginning, it's not a big deal.

But when you have borrowed so much money that you can barely afford the interest on your debts, that's when the people who loaned you that money will get worried about you.

但當你借了太多錢，連債務利息都快付不出來時，借錢給你的人就會開始擔心你。

Imagine you're making $100,000 and you have a mortgage, you have a car loan, and

想像一下，你年收入十萬美元，有房貸、有車貸，

if you take all of your interest payments, they would amount to $10,000 a year.

如果把所有的利息支出加起來，一年是十萬美元。

Investors won't actually be worried at this point because that's 10% of your annual income.

投資者這時候不會太擔心，因為這只佔你年收入的10%。

But then suddenly, when your debts grow so much, when you have to pay half of your income into interest payments, that's when investors will think about, should we actually loan you more money because you can't afford your current debts?

但接著，當你的債務越滾越大，當你必須拿出半年的收入來支付利息時，投資者就會開始想，我們真的還要借錢給你嗎？因為你連目前的債務都還不起。

If you look at the trajectory, the US debt is going to cross $45 trillion by 2035, currently is about 38 or $39 trillion.

如果你看看這個趨勢，美國的債務到2035年將會超過45兆美元，目前大約是38或39兆美元。

And the trajectory that by the end of the next year it will cross $41 trillion.

而且這個趨勢是，到明年年底，將會突破41兆美元。

And we have another few years where it will cross $45 trillion.

我們還有幾年的時間，它將會突破45兆美元。

And this is the most conservative number.

According to other estimates, there is a probability that this number will exceed 4, 45 trillion dollars.

根據其他估計，這個數字有機會突破4.45兆美元。

But let's be a bit more conservative and a bit more optimistic.

但我們還是保守一點，樂觀一點來看。

Given the fact that the average interest rate on the US debt is 3.4%, the total interest payments will be $1.5 trillion.

鑑於美國債務的平均利率是3.4%，總利息支付將會是1.5兆美元。

Last year and this year the interest payments amounted to a total amount of $1 trillion.

去年和今年，利息支付的總金額是1兆美元。

Within the next five years, we're moving to $1.5 trillion.

在接下來的五年內，我們將會達到1.5兆美元。

And this is not the amount of debts that you are paying.

This is simply the interest in order for the to avoid a default.

這只是為了避免違約而支付的利息。

And that will equal to almost a quarter of all the government revenue that the US Government is generating from taxes.

這將會等於美國政府從稅收中產生的總收入的將近四分之一。

Because the total revenue is expected to be about $6.5 trillion by 2035.

因為預計到2035年，總收入將達到約6.5兆美元。

這就是為什麼，從現在開始，而且

it has already been happening for the last couple of years, more and more countries are trying to use different currencies in international trade.

在過去幾年裡，已經有越來越多的國家試圖在國際貿易中使用不同的貨幣。

You hear the news that there are countries that use the yuan when they trade with.

你會聽到新聞說有些國家在貿易時會使用人民幣。

There are countries that are literally selling their oil in euros instead of the dollar.

有些國家實際上是用歐元而不是美元來賣他們的石油。

And that trajectory will continue, which means that the role of the dollar and the global trade is only going to diminish.

而且這種趨勢將會持續下去，這意味著美元在全球貿易中的角色只會越來越小。

But the United States is not going to lose its status the global reserve currency.

但美國不會失去其作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

And it will continue holding around 50 to 60% of the share of the global reserve currency.

它將繼續持有約50%到60%的全球儲備貨幣份額。

It might fall by a couple of percentages, but most likely that's not going to happen.

可能會下降幾個百分點，但最有可能不會發生。

The real change is happened between 2030 and 2035.

真正的改變會發生在 2030 年到 2035 年之間。

This is the breaking point in the United States history because the US debt is expected to cross $60 trillion.

這是美國歷史上的轉捩點，因為預計美國的債務將會超過 60 兆美元。

This is when investors will look at the US debt and they're like, we no longer trust the United States.

這時候投資者會看著美國的債務，心想，我們不再信任美國了。

So the average interest rate on the US debt most likely is going to grow to 4%.

所以美國債務的平均利率很可能會成長到 4%。

Because with this kind of debt, investors will require slightly higher interest rates.

因為有這種債務，投資者會要求稍微高一點的利率。

And because we are entering this new phase of high inflation rate, it is very normal for investors to demand a 4% interest rate.

而且因為我們正進入這個高通貨膨脹的新階段，投資者要求 4% 的利率是很正常的。