Name: 美國中央銀行是否正在失去獨立性？ (Is the US Central Bank Losing Its Independence?)
Uploaded: 2025-09-30T11:05:10.000Z
Duration: 18 min

程度副詞

Almost every country in the world today has a central bank.

當今世界，幾乎每個國家都有中央銀行。

情態副詞

In fact, there are only two countries in the world that have their own currency and do not have a central bank, and those are Tuvalu with a population of just 9,500 people, and Kiribati with 132,000 people.

事實上，世界上只有兩個國家擁有自己的貨幣而沒有中央銀行，它們是人口僅有 9 500 人的吐瓦魯和有 132 000 人的基里巴斯。

轉承詞

Now, despite being such tiny counterexamples, they realistically also both generally default to using the Australian dollar for most serious transactions anyway.

現在，儘管是如此微小的反例，但無論如何，現實中它們也都普遍默認在大多數嚴肅的交易中使用澳元。

The reason that central banks have become a nearly universal feature of every economy on earth is because they work.

中央銀行之所以幾乎成為世界上每個經濟體的普遍特徵，是因為它們行之有效。

Especially in our highly integrated global economy with dozens of floating fiat currencies, they have become a check and balance on economic recklessness.

特別是在我們高度一體化的全球經濟中，有數十種浮動法定貨幣，它們已成為對經濟魯莽行為的制衡。

They are an emergency backstop in times of crisis, a partially independent regulator on inflation and employment, and beyond that there are the slightly more boring aspects of central banks as institutions that handle a lot of the administration that goes into keeping a currency functional.

它們是危機時期的緊急後盾，是通脹和就業方面的部分獨立監管機構，除此之外，中央銀行還有一些略顯枯燥的方面，即作為機構處理維持貨幣功能的大量行政事務。

These are all jobs that have become significantly more difficult in recent years as the world becomes more integrated, debts continue to balloon, and inequality undermines the tools that these banks have to work with.

近年來，隨著世界變得更加一體化、債務不斷膨脹以及不平等現象削弱了這些銀行的工作手段，這些工作都變得更加困難。

And of course, to make matters worse, all of these responsibilities have been called into question as the US government has tossed up the idea of scrapping the Fed altogether, something that has caught the attention of everybody from global bank executives to conspiracy theorists that think the whole show is run by lizard people.

當然，更糟糕的是，由於美國政府提出了徹底廢除美聯儲的想法，所有這些責任都受到了質疑，這引起了從全球銀行高管到陰謀論者等所有人的注意，他們認為整場演出都是由蜥蜴人操縱的。

From the get-go, realistically, this is very unlikely to actually happen.

實際上，從一開始，這種情況就不太可能真正發生。

The Fed is the most powerful financial institution on the planet, and unwinding its place in the global economy would be borderline impossible.

美聯儲是全球最強大的金融機構，解除其在全球經濟中的地位幾乎是不可能的。

Central banks have been abolished before, including in the USA, and what's more is that the actual effectiveness of these institutions has been called into question more and more as they not only have to tame their economies, but they are increasingly often at odds with their own governments to do so.

中央銀行以前就被廢除過，包括在美國。更重要的是，這些機構的實際效力受到越來越多的質疑，因為它們不僅要馴服本國經濟，而且為此與本國政府的矛盾也越來越多。

With such powerful institutions acting in such unintuitive ways, with so much of a consequence on our everyday lives, it's almost understandable that people just assume that something sinister is going on in these places.

如此強大的機構以如此不直觀的方式行事，對我們的日常生活造成如此大的影響，人們認為這些地方發生了什麼邪惡的事情幾乎是可以理解的。

So, if for no other reason than to get a better idea of what these central banks actually do, could the US get rid of the Fed?

那麼，如果不是為了更好地瞭解這些中央銀行的實際工作，美國是否可以取消美聯儲？

What would that do to the global economy?

這會對全球經濟造成什麼影響？

And finally, what are the more immediate problems that central banks are facing?

最後，中央銀行面臨哪些更為緊迫的問題？

When you're reading the news, shopping online, or just watching videos like this one, it's easy to forget that the internet wasn't really built for privacy.

當你閱讀新聞、網上購物或只是觀看類似視頻時，很容易忘記互聯網並不是為隱私而生的。

Behind the scenes, companies track your data, your internet provider monitors what you do, and depending on where you live or travel, governments might too.

在幕後，公司會跟蹤你的數據，你的互聯網提供商會監控你的行為，而根據你居住或旅行的地點，政府也可能會監控你的行為。

這就是我們使用 Surfshark 的原因。

It's a VPN, a virtual private network, that encrypts your internet traffic and hides your real IP address.

它是一個 VPN（虛擬專用網絡），可以加密你的互聯網流量，隱藏你的真實 IP 地址。

Basically, it keeps what you do online private.

從根本上說，它可以保護你在網上的隱私。

But it's not just about protection, it's also just a useful tool.

但它不僅是一種保護，也是一種有用的工具。

For example, when we're researching videos, Surfshark lets us switch digital locations so we can see how different news sites or markets look from other countries.

例如，當我們研究視頻時，Surfshark 可以讓我們切換數字位置，這樣我們就可以看到其他國家不同新聞網站或市場的樣子。

It's the same trick people use to get better flight deals or access to region-locked content on Netflix and other streaming services.

人們用同樣的伎倆來獲得更好的班機優惠，或訪問 Netflix 和其他流媒體服務上鎖定地區的內容。

There's also CleanWeb, which blocks ads, trackers, and malicious websites before they even load, saving you time and keeping your browsing experience smoother.

此外，CleanWeb 還能在廣告、跟蹤器和惡意網站加載前對其進行攔截，從而節省你的時間，讓你的瀏覽體驗更加流暢。

You can install Surfshark on unlimited devices, and there's a strict no-logs policy, so your data stays yours.

你可以在無限多的設備上安裝 Surfshark，而且有嚴格的無記錄政策，所以你的數據永遠屬於你。

Right now, Surfshark is offering Economics Explained viewers a special deal.

現在，Surfshark 正在為《經濟學解讀》的觀眾提供特別優惠。

Without code, you can get four extra months for free.

無需密碼，您可以免費獲得額外四個月的服務。

Go to surfshark.com slash economics, or use code ECONOMICS at checkout to get four extra months of Surfshark VPN.

訪問 surfshark.com slash economics，或在結賬時使用代碼 ECONOMICS，即可額外獲得四個月的 Surfshark VPN。

Now, to understand what central banks like the Fed are supposed to do, one of the best places to start is with the historical problems that necessitated their formation.

現在，要了解像美聯儲這樣的中央銀行應該做什麼，最好的起點之一就是了解促使其成立的歷史問題。

Now, to be completely honest, this video is already going to be quite long, so if you already have a good understanding of financial history, feel free to skip to this timestamp here.

現在，老實說，這段視頻已經相當長了，所以如果你已經對金融史有了一定的瞭解，可以隨意跳到這個時間戳。

A very brief history of central banks is that they informally started with European banking houses set up by cities to manage their debts and issue coinage to facilitate easy trade.

簡而言之，中央銀行的歷史起源於歐洲城市為管理債務和發行硬幣以方便貿易而設立的非正式銀行。

The first formal central banks were the Bank of England, established in 1694, and before that the Sveriges Riksbank of Sweden, which was established in 1688.

最早的正式中央銀行是 1694 年成立的英格蘭銀行，在此之前是 1688 年成立的瑞典 Sveriges Riksbank。

This is the same institution that awards the Nobel prize in economics as a fun little side note.

作為一個有趣的小插曲，諾貝爾經濟學獎也是由這個機構頒發的。

In these early days, they still hadn't quite grown into their role, but they were still operating as a bank for banks and for the government, as well as managing a universally recognized currency, which made commerce within these countries much smoother.

在早期，他們還沒有完全成長為自己的角色，但他們仍然作為銀行和政府的銀行在運作，並管理著一種普遍認可的貨幣，這使得這些國家內部的貿易更加順暢。

The US actually had a similar kind of early central bank, starting all the way back in 1791.

實際上，美國早在 1791 年就建立了類似的早期中央銀行。

Alexander Hamilton awarded a charter to a bank that was founded partially by the government and a group of private investors to remove frictions in the financial system.

亞歷山大-漢密爾頓（Alexander Hamilton）向一家銀行頒發了特許狀，該銀行部分由政府和一批私人投資者創辦，旨在消除金融體系中的摩擦。

It would also distribute and manage a universally recognized currency that people could trade freely with across all of the new United States, confident that private banks would accept these notes because the first bank of America, back in Washington, guaranteed them.

它還將發行和管理一種得到普遍認可的貨幣，人們可以在整個新美國自由貿易，並相信私人銀行會接受這些紙幣，因為位於華盛頓的美國第一銀行為其提供擔保。

However, this first bank was abolished in 1811 because its charter was not renewed.

然而，這第一家銀行在 1811 年因沒有續簽特許狀而被撤銷。

But then it was brought back again in 1816, before it was once again abolished in 1836 because the president at the time, Andrew Jackson, did not like how much power the institution had, something that would become a common theme amongst a lot of central banks and presidents into the future.

但在 1816 年，它又被重新啟用，1836 年再次被廢除，原因是當時的總統安德魯-傑克遜不喜歡該機構擁有如此大的權力，而這也成為未來許多中央銀行和總統的共同話題。

Now, the thing with these banks is that they were just regular banks, with a profit motive and special privileges given to them by the government.

現在，這些銀行的問題在於，它們只是普通的銀行，有盈利動機和政府賦予的特殊特權。

This made it hard for them to balance the priorities of returns to their investors with doing what was in the best interest of the new nation, while also ensuring that they didn't anger lawmakers who could take away their charter of special privileges.

這使得他們很難在投資者回報與新國家最佳利益之間取得平衡，同時還要確保不會激怒立法者，因為後者可能會剝奪他們的特權憲章。

他們充其量不過是妥協了而已。

Unfortunately, after they were abolished, things didn't get much better as basically every regional bank started issuing their own depository notes, which made trade difficult because there was no guarantee that one bank would accept another bank's notes, and with so many different pieces of paper circulating around, forgeries were rampant.

不幸的是，在廢除紙幣之後，情況並沒有好轉，因為基本上每個地區的銀行都開始發行自己的存票，這給貿易帶來了困難，因為無法保證一家銀行會接受另一家銀行的紙幣，而且由於有這麼多不同的紙幣在流通，偽造紙幣的現象十分猖獗。

Now at this time, it was important to remember that the US dollar technically already existed, but there was no paper notes and the actual coinage was too limited to be used practically for day-to-day commerce, so private banks made up their own and people just accepted the numbers they wrote down on those pieces of paper.

此時，重要的是要記住，美元在技術上已經存在，但當時沒有紙幣，實際硬幣也太有限，無法實際用於日常商業活動，是以私人銀行自己創造了美元，而人們只是接受他們寫在這些紙片上的數字。

Realistically, it's not too dissimilar from today.

實際上，這與今天並無太大區別。

If you really think about it, we don't carry around paper notes anymore, we have electronic bank accounts with numbers that a private banking institution writes down for us.

仔細想想，我們不再隨身攜帶紙幣，我們有了電子銀行賬戶，上面有私人銀行機構為我們寫下的數字。

We assume that the numbers in our bank accounts will play nicely with the numbers in other banks, and instead of being secured by designs that are hard to forge, it's secured by electronic systems that are hard to hack.

我們假定自己銀行賬戶中的數字會與其他銀行的數字很好地匹配，而不是通過難以偽造的設計來保證安全，而是通過難以入侵的電子系統來保證安全。

But, hold up a bank account on a phone and an old private paper bill and it would be very hard to explain the difference to an alien.

但是，舉起手機上的銀行賬戶和舊的私人紙質賬單，很難向外星人解釋其中的區別。

Either way, these issues all came to a head in 1907 with a run on these independent, over-leveraged and poorly regulated banks, which nearly crashed the entire financial system.

無論如何，這些問題都在 1907 年爆發了，這些獨立、過度槓桿化和監管不力的銀行遭到擠兌，整個金融體系幾乎崩潰。

A group of financiers led by JP Morgan acted as a lender of last resort to give these failing institutions enough cash to continue their operations, but this showed the clear need for a more formal centralized system to stop the same thing from happening again.

以摩根大通為首的一批金融家充當了最後貸款人的角色，為這些倒閉的機構提供了足夠的現金以繼續營運，但這也表明，顯然需要一個更加正式的中央集權制度來阻止同樣的事情再次發生。

This led to the formation of the Federal Reserve Banking System of the United States in 1913. 20 years later, gold convertibility was suspended for citizens, and the paper US dollar as we know it today was truly born.

這導致了 1913 年美國聯邦儲備銀行系統的成立。20 年後，黃金對公民的可兌換性被中止，我們今天所知的紙幣美元真正誕生了。

At the time, this new institution only really had one responsibility, to avoid bank runs like what happened in 1907.

當時，這個新機構真正的職責只有一個，那就是避免發生類似 1907 年的銀行擠兌。

It did this by being a place for private banks to deposit their cash, and then lending money to any member bank if they saw a big spike in withdrawals that they didn't have enough cash on hand to fulfill.

它是私人銀行存放現金的地方，如果成員銀行的取款量激增，而手頭又沒有足夠的現金來滿足取款需求，它就會借錢給成員銀行。

This would avoid a situation where a bank had to reject withdrawals, which would cause a panic on the entire system.

這將避免出現銀行不得不拒絕取款的情況，從而引起整個系統的恐慌。

Now this admittedly oversimplified history lesson is important because throughout their different incarnations they were all trying to do one thing, create a reliable and flexible medium of exchange, which meant distributing, protecting and managing a currency.

現在，這堂誠然過於簡化的歷史課非常重要，因為在它們的不同化身中，它們都在努力做一件事，那就是創造一種可靠而靈活的交換媒介，這意味著分配、保護和管理貨幣。

Now some versions of a central bank were more successful than others, but this was still the end goal.

現在，有些版本的中央銀行比其他版本更成功，但這仍然是最終目標。

Over time as more and more countries adopted their own central banks, it became clear that by being a bank for banks, they could achieve other goals in the economy as well.

隨著時間的推移，越來越多的國家採用了自己的中央銀行，人們逐漸認識到，作為銀行的銀行，中央銀行也可以實現經濟中的其他目標。

They could control inflation, which was just a function of how much of their currency was needed for a given amount of goods and services, but they could also indirectly control employment, which by extension also meant economic growth.

他們可以控制通貨膨脹，這只是一定數量的商品和服務需要多少貨幣的函數，但他們也可以間接控制就業，這也意味著經濟增長。

In the USA, these responsibilities were formalised in 1977 as the dual mandate to stabilise prices and maintain maximum employment.

在美國，這些責任在 1977 年被正式確定為穩定物價和維持最大就業的雙重任務。

Most central banks around the world have similar responsibilities, usually listed on their website if you happen to be interested in looking up what your bank is formally working towards.

世界上大多數中央銀行都有類似的職責，如果您有興趣瞭解您所在銀行的正式職責，通常會在其網站上看到這些職責。

那麼，他們是如何做到這一點的呢？

Central banks are very powerful institutions, but they actually don't have that many tools at their disposal to achieve these goals.

中央銀行是非常強大的機構，但它們實際上並沒有那麼多工具來實現這些目標。

Unlike say the federal government of the USA, which can just go out and employ people through big projects or hiring at government agencies, the fed can't just hire a whole bunch of people to achieve their goal of maximum employment.

美國聯邦政府可以通過大項目或在政府機構中招聘員工，而聯邦政府則不同，它不能通過招聘一大堆人來實現最大限度的就業目標。

Instead they have two levers to pull and that's pretty much it.

相反，他們有兩個拉桿可以拉，差不多就這樣。

If inflation is too high, the fed can raise its target rate, which means people can earn more by saving money and will pay more to borrow money.

如果通脹率過高，美聯儲可以提高目標利率，這意味著人們可以通過存錢賺更多錢，而借錢則需要支付更高的費用。

This means that people and businesses are more motivated to save and less encouraged to spend, which will lower aggregate demand in the economy, and if demand falls without a subsequent fall in supply, then prices will also naturally fall as well as businesses try to attract the few people still spending money through sales or generally more competitive prices.

這意味著人們和企業的儲蓄積極性提高，消費意願降低，這將降低經濟中的總需求，如果需求下降而供應沒有隨之下降，那麼價格自然也會下降，因為企業會試圖通過銷售或更具競爭力的價格來吸引少數仍在消費的人。

If interest rates are lowered, then people will end up spending less on repaying their debts, which means they'll have more money to spend on everything else, increasing aggregate demand, and again assuming that supply stays stable, prices will rise as more money is chasing fewer goods.

如果降低利率，那麼人們在償還債務上的花費就會減少，這意味著他們將有更多的錢花在其他方面，從而增加總需求，同樣假設供給保持穩定，那麼價格就會上漲，因為更多的錢在追逐更少的商品。

廣義上的物價上漲只是通貨膨脹。

Now here's the thing though, regular people and businesses can't go and borrow money from the fed or make deposits there.

但問題是，普通人和企業無法向美聯儲借錢或存款。

只有銀行和政府才能做到這一點。

So the fed can only change the rate it gives out to other banks that keep money with them.

是以，美聯儲只能改變它給其他在它那裡存錢的銀行的利率。

This could be thought of as the interest that banks receive for keeping their money in a bank account for banks.

這可以看作是銀行將資金存入銀行賬戶所獲得的利息。

Now if for example the fed is offering a 4% overnight cash rate, this is effectively the money that they can get risk-free, so if they're going to make loans, they're going to want a higher interest rate.

舉例來說，如果美聯儲提供 4% 的隔夜現金利率，這實際上就是他們可以獲得的無風險資金，是以，如果他們要發放貸款，就需要更高的利率。

This is just like if an average person could get 4% in their high-interest federally insured savings account and they were presented with an even slightly risky investment opportunity that paid 3% interest.

這就好比，如果一個普通人的高息聯邦保險儲蓄賬戶可以獲得 4% 的利息，而他們遇到的是一個哪怕只有 3% 利息的稍有風險的投資機會。

This basically sets the floor on borrowing costs for private banks, which gets passed along to every other participant in the economy.

這基本上為私人銀行設定了借貸成本的下限，並將其轉嫁給經濟中的其他參與者。

So to influence prices it's a bit of a Rube Goldberg machine.

是以，要影響價格，這就有點像 Rube Goldberg 機器。

The fed adjusts its overnight rate to influence banks, to influence borrowing and lending, to influence demand, to influence prices.

美聯儲通過調整隔夜利率來影響銀行、影響借貸、影響需求、影響價格。

Interest rates are kind of like the brake pedal on the economy.

If things are getting out of hand they can be used to slow down inflation, however in doing so they will also slow down economic growth.

如果情況失控，可以用它們來減緩通貨膨脹，但這樣做也會減緩經濟增長。

Now with that crude analogy, the accelerator would be open market operations.

用這個粗略的比喻，加速器就是公開市場操作。

This is where the fed will just directly intervene in the market, usually buying up government bonds, which to the average person is the lowest risk interest bearing asset they can own.

在這種情況下，美聯儲會直接干預市場，通常是購買政府債券，而對普通人來說，政府債券是他們能擁有的風險最低的計息資產。

The most extreme version of open market operations is something called quantitative easing, where the fed will create money and use it to pump liquidity into the market by buying government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and sometimes even shares and other equity.

公開市場操作的最極端版本是所謂的量化寬鬆，即美聯儲創造貨幣，並通過購買政府債券、公司債券、抵押貸款支持證券，有時甚至是股票和其他股權，向市場注入流動性。

The goal is to get money out there in times of crisis, then hopefully sell back these assets over time to take the extra money back out of circulation.

這樣做的目的是在危機時把錢拿出來，然後希望隨著時間的推移，把這些資產賣回，把多餘的錢從流通中收回。

Economists will often refer to this as the fed's balance sheet, which is honestly a little bit confusing because it's not really like a balance sheet in the traditional business because traditional businesses aren't allowed to bippity-boppity-boop their own cash into existence to acquire these assets in the first place.

經濟學家通常將其稱為美聯儲的資產負債表，老實說，這有點令人困惑，因為它並不像傳統企業的資產負債表，因為傳統企業首先不允許 "噼裡啪啦 "地用自己的現金來收購這些資產。

One other quick but very important side note is that because the fed gets to make money to buy assets, it usually runs a pretty significant profit on the interest it gets from things like That money gets used to cover the bank's operating expenses like paying its staff and or perhaps renovating its offices, as a completely random example.

還有一個快速但非常重要的附帶說明是，由於美聯儲可以賺錢來購買資產，是以它通常會從利息中獲得相當可觀的利潤，比如，這筆錢會被用來支付銀行的營運費用，比如支付員工工資，或者翻新辦公室，這完全是一個隨意的例子。

After it does this, it actually pays out a modest dividend to its shareholders, more on who they are later, and then any money that's left over after that gets paid to the US treasury and before the last few years that contributed tens of billions of dollars annually.

在這之後，它實際上會向其股東派發適度的股息，稍後會詳細介紹這些股東是誰，之後剩下的錢都會上繳美國國庫，而在過去幾年裡，美國國庫每年都會貢獻數百億美元。

Unfortunately for the fed right now, it's actually running at a large loss.

不幸的是，目前美聯儲實際上處於大幅虧損狀態。

During covid it bought lots of bonds as a quantitative easing measure to get money out there into the economy, but those bonds were paying low interest at the time, and now that interest rates have risen again, they are paying banks a lot of money in overnight deposits, but they aren't earning much on the assets that they have acquired.

在科維德時期，它購買了大量債券，作為一種量化寬鬆措施，將資金投入到經濟中，但當時這些債券的利息很低，而現在利率再次上升，它們向銀行支付了大量的隔夜存款，但它們並沒有從所獲得的資產中賺到多少錢。

This technically means that the fed has been making a loss for the last two years.

從技術上講，這意味著美聯儲在過去兩年中一直處於虧損狀態。

It can make its own money and any losses are just counted as more money it can take out of circulation in the following years, however, if one was, hypothetically, politically motivated to shake up management at the federal reserve, they could point out these massive financial losses and to the vast majority of people it would look like mismanagement.

然而，如果有人出於政治動機要動搖美聯儲的管理層，他們可以指出這些巨大的金融損失，而對絕大多數人來說，這看起來就像是管理不善。

So it's very important to remember that in reality the fed running at a loss doesn't really mean anything.

是以，重要的是要記住，實際上美聯儲的虧損並不意味著什麼。

However, it also doesn't mean that it and other central banks haven't had significant problems in recent years performing their intended role, and one of the biggest of those challenges is losing control of debt and inequality.

然而，這也並不意味著央行和其他央行近年來在履行其職責時沒有遇到重大問題，其中最大的挑戰之一就是失去對債務和不平等的控制。

Managing monetary policy is kind of like trying to stand a stick up on your hand.

管理貨幣政策有點像用手把一根棍子豎起來。

A very small stick is quite hard to work with, but a very large stick is also very hard to balance.

一根很小的棍子很難操作，但一根很大的棍子也很難平衡。

For monetary policy to have an impact people need to be doing some borrowing, but as household, corporate, and government debt has grown to almost unprecedented levels, it's become much harder to manage inflation with small changes that don't have massive impacts on these heavily indebted parties.

要使貨幣政策產生影響，人們就需要借貸，但隨著家庭、企業和政府債務增長到幾乎前所未有的水準，要想通過不會對這些負債累累的各方產生巨大影響的微小變化來管理通脹變得難上加難。

字幕列表影片播放

美國中央銀行是否正在失去獨立性？ (Is the US Central Bank Losing Its Independence?)

entire

stick

compromise

basically