Name: 警告：金價預示著一場大崩盤 (WARNING: Gold Prices Are Signaling a Major Crash)
Uploaded: 2025-09-29T18:13:35.000Z
Duration: 16 min 54 s

There is something seriously wrong with gold prices.

形容詞最高級

This is the highest gold prices has ever been.

這是黃金價格有史以來的最高點。

現在進行式

Central banks across the globe are massively buying gold as if we are going back to the gold standard.

全球央行都在大量購買黃金，好像我們要回到金本位一樣。

In the last two years alone, gold prices have more than doubled.

僅在過去兩年，金價就上漲了一倍多。

Last time something like this happened was back when Nixon abandoned the gold standard and suspended the system back in 1971.

上一次發生這樣的事情還要追溯到 1971 年尼克松放棄金本位制並暫停金本位制的時候。

And it led to one of the highest inflations in the history of the United States.

這導致了美國曆史上最高的一次通貨膨脹。

So are we on the brink of yet another one of the highest inflation periods?

那麼，我們是否正處於另一個最高通脹期的邊緣？

To understand that, we first have to understand the relationship between the dollar and gold.

要了解這一點，我們首先要了解美元和黃金之間的關係。

If you look at the entire economy, the US dollar is an artificial commodity created by the government to help us measure stuff in the economy and use it as a medium of exchange.

縱觀整個經濟，美元是政府創造的一種人造商品，它幫助我們衡量經濟中的各種因素，並將其作為一種交換媒介。

So the number of dollars in the economy determines what is going to be the price of gold.

是以，經濟中的美元數量決定了黃金的價格。

So if we assume hypothetically that within the entire economy we have 5 dollars and we have 5 gold bars, 1 gold bar is going to equal to 1 dollar.

是以，如果我們假設在整個經濟中，我們有 5 美元，我們有 5 根金條，那麼 1 根金條就等於 1 美元。

And that will be the final price of the gold bar.

The government can't possibly jump tomorrow and double the supply of gold.

政府不可能明天就把黃金供應量增加一倍。

Because the amount of gold in the economy is limited and in the world, frankly speaking, I mean, we are increasing the supply of gold over time, but because it's so difficult and it requires a lot of investment to extract it from the ground, the supply of gold increases gradually, while the supply of dollars is very easy to increase.

因為黃金在經濟中的數量是有限的，在世界上，坦率地說，我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，我們正在增加黃金的供應量，但由於從地下開採黃金非常困難，需要大量的投資，所以黃金的供應量是逐漸增加的，而美元的供應量卻很容易增加。

However, the government has to be very careful so that it does not massively devalues the currency.

但是，政府必須非常謹慎，以免貨幣大幅貶值。

In this hypothetical example, if the government is going to double the supply of dollars in the economy, suddenly the relationship between the dollars and gold is going to change.

在這個假設的例子中，如果政府要把經濟中的美元供應量增加一倍，美元和黃金之間的關係就會突然發生變化。

In this case, because we have double the amount of dollars in the economy than the amount of gold, 1 gold bar is going to equal to 2 dollars.

在這種情況下，由於我們經濟中的美元數量是黃金數量的兩倍，是以 1 根金條等於 2 美元。

This is an oversimplification because the economy is very huge.

這種說法過於簡單，因為經濟規模非常龐大。

Besides the gold, we have a lot of other products.

除了黃金，我們還有很多其他產品。

And because we have so much dollars on one side and we are consistently increasing the supply of dollars in the economy and the supply of goods are also rising on the other side, the relationship is not direct.

由於我們一方擁有如此多的美元，而且我們一直在增加經濟中的美元供應量，而另一方的商品供應量也在增加，是以兩者之間的關係並不直接。

But if you actually bring it down to its core principle, this is exactly how it works.

但是，如果你真正把它歸結為其核心原理，這正是它的工作原理。

So we have to take a look at how the government is massively increasing the supply of money.

是以，我們必須看看政府是如何大規模增加貨幣供應的。

Imagine you are working hard, you are making money, and there is a specific amount of money that circulates within the economy.

想象一下，你在努力工作，你在賺錢，而在經濟中流通的錢有一個特定的數量。

Because there is going to be inflation anyways, because people are making money, they are spending, they are buying things, and a portion of that money is going in taxes to the government.

因為無論如何都會出現通貨膨脹，因為人們在賺錢，在消費，在買東西，而這些錢中的一部分要作為稅收上繳給政府。

The government takes that money and spends it on different government programs, from social security to healthcare.

政府將這些錢用於不同的政府項目，從社會保障到醫療保健。

That demand is going to create inflation to a certain extent, but that is a very limited inflation of 1 to 2 percent, because the exact same amount of money is circulating within the economy.

這種需求會在一定程度上造成通貨膨脹，但這種通貨膨脹率非常有限，僅為 1%至 2%，因為經濟中流通的貨幣量完全相同。

Yes, some of that money is borrowed, some of that money changes hands multiple times, however, it is still the exact same amount of money.

是的，有些錢是借來的，有些錢是多次轉手的，但這些錢的數額仍然完全相同。

The problem is, when the government suddenly starts to borrow that money, not in the form of taxes like it always does, but rather, it borrows it directly from the people or from investors or from anybody who frankly has savings.

問題是，當政府突然開始借錢時，不是像以往那樣以稅收的形式，而是直接從人民、投資者或任何有儲蓄的人那裡借錢。

The government can't simply take that money from you, because you already pay your taxes.

政府不能簡單地從你那裡拿走這筆錢，因為你已經交過稅了。

The second way the government can take that money from you is by providing you with an investment opportunity that you can't possibly refuse.

政府從你那裡拿走錢的第二種方式是向你提供一個你無法拒絕的投資機會。

So the US government is going to create a piece of paper called the government bonds, and it will simply say that, I am going to exchange these government bonds for dollars, you can hold it, and you can sell it anytime you want.

是以，美國政府將創造一種名為政府債券的紙張，並簡單地說，我將用這些政府債券兌換美元，你可以持有它，也可以隨時出售它。

And in the global economy, US government bonds are meant to be equal to money, so they are money equivalent, because they are very liquid.

而在全球經濟中，美國政府債券的本意是等同於貨幣，是以它們等同於貨幣，因為它們的流動性很強。

You can literally exchange any government bonds to US dollars without affecting the market.

您可以在不影響市場的情況下將任何政府債券兌換成美元。

So even if you have hundreds of billions of dollars of US government bonds, you can easily turn them into cash in a very short period of time.

是以，即使您擁有數千億美元的美國政府債券，您也可以在很短的時間內輕鬆地將其變為現金。

So every time the US government is borrowing that money because it wants to spend on other things, it is creating US government bonds and throwing it into the economy.

是以，美國政府每次借錢都是為了花在其他事情上，也就是在創造美國政府債券並將其投入經濟。

And we consider these government bonds equivalent to cash, which means that we are increasing the real supply of money every single time that the US government is borrowing money.

我們認為這些政府債券等同於現金，這意味著每次美國政府借錢時，我們都在增加貨幣的實際供應量。

And now let's go back to the relationship of dollars to gold.

現在讓我們回到美元與黃金的關係上來。

We are not directly increasing the supply of money by printing money, but because we are creating something called US government bonds, which are equal to US dollars, we are doubling or tripling the supply of money every single time that the US government is borrowing money, which is leading to a direct increase in gold prices, because US government bonds in the economy are considered to be US dollar equivalent.

我們並沒有通過印鈔直接增加貨幣供應量，但由於我們正在創造一種叫做美國政府債券的東西，這種債券等同於美元，是以每當美國政府借錢時，我們的貨幣供應量就會增加一倍或兩倍，這直接導致金價上漲，因為經濟中的美國政府債券被認為等同於美元。

And to prove that point further, you have to take a look at the history of US deficit and compare its relationship to gold prices.

為了進一步證明這一點，你必須看看美國赤字的歷史，並比較其與金價的關係。

Is there a direct correlation between the US deficit and gold prices?

美國的財政赤字與黃金價格之間有直接關係嗎？

Before 1970s, if you look at the US deficit, the United States abandons the gold standard and suddenly the US deficit starts to rise dramatically.

20 世紀 70 年代之前，如果你看一下美國的赤字，美國放棄了金本位制，美國的赤字突然開始急劇上升。

And because it was a shock to the rest of the world, it led to one of the highest increases in gold prices.

由於這對世界其他地區造成了衝擊，導致金價出現了最高漲幅之一。

And this was the period when the United States was going through one of the highest inflations.

而這一時期正是美國通貨膨脹率最高的時期之一。

In fact, it was very similar to a stagflation, I would say.

事實上，我認為這與滯脹非常相似。

And then starting from 1980s to up to 1996, you can see that gold prices stabilized for a very long period of time.

然後從 20 世紀 80 年代開始到 1996 年，你可以看到金價在很長一段時間內保持穩定。

In fact, there was almost two decades of stable gold prices, even though that the United States was going or running some stable deficit.

事實上，儘管美國正在或已經出現了一些穩定的赤字，但金價仍然保持了近二十年的穩定。

At this point, it was very clear that the US government can run a certain amount of deficit as long as that deficit is sustainable.

在這一點上，很明顯，只要赤字是可持續的，美國政府就可以有一定的赤字。

If we are running a 2-3% deficit every single year, and the US economy is growing, the productivity is growing, and the US budget is being filled with extra money, and we can pay off the interest on that debt, then it is leading on one side to an increase of supply of money.

如果我們每年都有 2%-3% 的赤字，而美國的經濟在增長，生產力在提高，美國的預算被額外的資金填滿，我們可以償還債務的利息，那麼這就從一個側面導致了貨幣供應量的增加。

On the other side, it is massively increasing the productivity of the economy.

另一方面，它也大大提高了經濟的生產率。

And it is sustainable because at this point, the US government can still pay off its debts.

而這是可持續的，因為此時美國政府仍有能力償還債務。

And that's why gold prices haven't actually increased much.

這就是為什麼金價實際上並沒有上漲多少的原因。

But what I want you to pay attention to is that from 1996 to 2002, gold prices have actually dropped significantly to a certain extent.

但我想讓你們注意的是，從 1996 年到 2002 年，金價實際上在一定程度上大幅下跌。

And it happened primarily because the United States for the first time since 1971 started running a surplus.

這主要是因為美國自 1971 年以來首次出現盈餘。

The United States stopped actually running a deficit, it began raising more money than And a lot of that money was actually spent on paying off its debts.

美國實際上不再出現赤字，它開始籌集更多的資金，而其中很多資金實際上是用來償還債務的。

And you can see that it clearly affected gold prices.

你可以看到，這明顯影響了金價。

Because what it did basically is, all those government bonds that were in the economy, the US government paid off the debts and they disappeared from the economy, which means that it decreased the direct supply of money in the economy in relation to gold, which led to a decrease in gold prices.

因為它所做的基本上就是，美國政府償還了經濟中的所有政府債券，它們從經濟中消失了，這意味著它減少了經濟中與黃金相關的貨幣直接供應量，從而導致金價下跌。

但是，絕對相反的情況卻發生了。

You can see that there is a huge increase in gold prices after that.

你可以看到，此後金價大幅上漲。

They basically increased from about 300 dollars to as much as 1500 dollars.

它們基本上從 300 美元左右增加到 1500 美元之多。

What did we do to the supply of money that it led to one of the highest increases in gold prices?

我們對貨幣供應量做了什麼，導致金價出現最高漲幅之一？

First of all, George Bush started multiple wars and he needed to finance those wars.

首先，小布什發動了多場戰爭，他需要為這些戰爭提供資金。

Secondly, the United States was going through the 2008 financial crisis.

其次，美國正在經歷 2008 年金融危機。

When Obama won the election in 2008, he basically inherited one of the biggest crises in history.

當奧巴馬在 2008 年贏得大選時，他基本上繼承了歷史上最大的危機之一。

And Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed, gave him a plan that the only way we can fix this economy is by the Federal Reserve massively buying US government bonds and injecting trillions of dollars into the economy.

美聯儲主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）向他提出了一個計劃，即解決經濟問題的唯一辦法就是美聯儲大規模購買美國政府債券，並向經濟注入數萬億美元。

That is going to directly increase the supply of money, which created one of the biggest increases in gold prices in the history of gold.

這將直接增加貨幣供應量，從而造成黃金歷史上最大的一次金價上漲。

Obama was actually very strict with his policies and he knew that this is not sustainable for a long time.

實際上，奧巴馬對自己的政策要求非常嚴格，他知道這樣的政策無法長期持續下去。

And when the US economy began to show signs that it's recovering, when the economy actually began to grow after the 2008 financial crisis, he started actually managing the supply of money.

當美國經濟開始出現復甦跡象時，當經濟在2008年金融危機後真正開始增長時，他開始實際管理貨幣供應。

It led to one of the drops in gold prices.

They went from as high as almost 1800 dollars at their peak to as much as 1300 dollars.

它們從最高峰時的近 1800 美元跌至 1300 美元。

And this was probably the biggest drop in gold prices in recent history.

這可能是近代史上金價的最大跌幅。

However, in 2015 and 2016, when Donald Trump becomes the president, he comes with a very different plan.

然而，在 2015 年和 2016 年，當唐納德-特朗普成為總統時，他帶來了一個截然不同的計劃。

He says that we are going to cut taxes and we are going to make a bet on the growth of the US economy.

他說，我們要減稅，我們要在美國經濟增長上下注。

So if people are going to keep more of their income within themselves, spending is going to grow.

是以，如果人們將更多的收入留給自己，支出就會增長。

And even though that we will be collecting a smaller tax percentage, we will be collecting a smaller tax percentage out of a bigger economy, which is going to balance the budget.

儘管我們徵收的稅款比例較低，但我們將從更大的經濟中徵收更低的稅款比例，從而平衡預算。

That led to a huge increase in the deficit, which again led to one of the biggest spikes in gold prices instantly after that.

這導致赤字大幅增加，再次導致金價在那之後瞬間飆升。

自 2020 年起，世界正在發生變化。

China is trying to create its own world order.

中國正試圖建立自己的世界秩序。

Other nations are moving away from the United States.

And the only way the United States can keep the current world order is by massively borrowing money and spending it to ensure that the United States will outspend everybody and will keep its economy at the top, which again led to one of the biggest increases in the deficits, which led to the biggest increases in gold prices.

而美國維持當前世界秩序的唯一辦法就是大量借錢和花錢，以確保美國的支出超過所有人，並保持其經濟的領先地位，這再次導致赤字的最大增長之一，從而導致金價的最大漲幅。

But the real question is that why did gold prices suddenly skyrocketed from about $2,000 to $3,700 to almost $4,000?

但真正的問題是，為什麼金價會突然從 2000 美元到 3700 美元再到近 4000 美元？

And that's because the real question you should be asking yourself is what is next?

這是因為你應該問自己的真正問題是，下一步是什麼？

What will happen to the US deficit moving forward?

If you take any projection, you will see that every single projection by every single economies indicates that the United States from now onwards will be running one of the highest deficits, if not the highest in American history.

如果你做任何預測，你會發現每一個經濟體的每一個預測都表明，從現在開始，美國的赤字即使不是美國曆史上最高的，也將是最高的之一。

At least for the next 9 to 10 years, the US deficit is going to continue to grow.

至少在未來 9 到 10 年內，美國的財政赤字將繼續增長。

And by 2035, the US deficit is expected to reach $2.6 trillion.

而到 2035 年，美國的赤字預計將達到 2.6 萬億美元。

So within the next nine years, the US government will run a deficit of almost $23 trillion.

是以，在未來九年內，美國政府將出現近 23 萬億美元的赤字。

Now let me ask you a question, what is going to happen to gold prices if we increase the supply of money by $23 trillion over the next nine years?

現在讓我問你一個問題，如果我們在未來九年內增加 23 萬億美元的貨幣供應量，金價會發生什麼變化？

And that's why gold prices are skyrocketing.

So if you want to know what will happen next to gold prices, all you have to understand is that by what rate or at which rate we are going to keep increasing the supply of money.

是以，如果你想知道金價接下來會發生什麼變化，你所需要了解的就是，我們將以何種速度或以何種速率不斷增加貨幣供應量。

It might not be direct quantitative easing like it happened in 2008 and 2020, but because the government is still massively borrowing money, no matter from whom it's borrowing, it is still creating that kind of a deficit.

這可能不是像 2008 年和 2020 年那樣的直接量化寬鬆政策，但由於政府仍在大量借錢，無論向誰借錢，都會造成這種赤字。

And the problem with this deficit, unlike previous deficits, is that the vast majority of that money is simply the interest that the US government has to pay.

與以往赤字不同的是，這次赤字的問題在於，這筆錢中的絕大部分只是美國政府需要支付的利息。

For example, in 2022, the US government ran a $1.4 trillion deficit. $900 billion of that was the pure money that the government could spend on social programs.

例如，2022 年，美國政府出現了 1.4 萬億美元的赤字。其中 9000 億美元是政府可以用於社會項目的純資金。

But half a trillion dollars of that was basically the interest that the US government had to pay.

但其中的 5 萬億美元基本上是美國政府必須支付的利息。

By 2035, $800 billion of that is going to be also on government programs.

到 2035 年，其中 8000 億美元也將用於政府項目。

And the reason that it is going to run such a huge deficit of $2.6 trillion is because $1.8 trillion is required to avoid a government default since the US government still has to pay interest on that massive debt.

之所以會出現 2.6 萬億美元的鉅額赤字，是因為需要 1.8 萬億美元才能避免政府違約，因為美國政府仍需為鉅額債務支付利息。