Name: 美聯儲剛剛發出了一個強有力的資訊 (Federal Reserve Just Sent a Powerful Message)
Uploaded: 2025-09-18T17:57:28.000Z
Duration: 9 min 59 s

程度副詞

The federal reserve just sent a very weird message.

美聯儲剛剛發出了一個非常奇怪的資訊。

On one side, the fed just recently claimed that the foundations of the US economy are very strong and there is no need to lower down interest rates.

一方面，美聯儲最近剛剛聲稱，美國經濟的基礎非常牢固，沒有必要降低利率。

情態副詞

On the other side, the federal reserve just recently lowered interest rates by about 25 percentage points.

另一方面，美聯儲最近剛剛將利率下調了約 25 個百分點。

Do we have a very strong economy or the economy is weakening and it's time to lower interest rates and it wasn't because Donald Trump has been pressuring the federal reserve over the last 6 months.

是我們的經濟非常強勁，還是經濟正在走弱，是時候降低利率了，而這並不是因為唐納德-特朗普在過去 6 個月裡向美聯儲施壓。

But I have already told you back in July that in September of this year, interest rate cuts are going to happen 100 percent.

但我早在 7 月份就已經告訴過大家，今年 9 月，降息幅度將達到 100%。

Yes, in September, most likely, I would assume that the chances that they will lower down interest rates is increasingly high.

是的，很有可能在 9 月份，我認為他們降低利率的可能性越來越大。

Some of you actually left me a very bad comment, but you see, it actually happened.

實際上，你們中的一些人給我留下了非常糟糕的評論，但你們看，它真的發生了。

The most important thing is that if you paid a very close attention to what he said, then the situation is way worse than most people imagine and let me explain why.

最重要的是，如果你仔細聆聽了他所說的話，那麼情況會比大多數人想象的要糟糕得多，讓我來解釋一下原因。

So the Fed expects that throughout this 2025, it is going to lower interest rates to 3.6 percent.

是以，美聯儲預計，在整個 2025 年，它將把利率降至 3.6%。

So we are going to see another two cuts by the end of the year, and each cut most likely is going to be about 0.25 percentage points.

是以，到今年年底，我們還將看到兩次減稅，每次減稅幅度很可能約為 0.25 個百分點。

And then throughout the entire 2026, if things continue this way, and we are not going to see any kind of series inflation throughout the entire next year, we will see one more cut in 2026, and it's going to be 0.25 percentage points.

然後在整個 2026 年，如果情況繼續這樣發展下去，我們在明年全年都不會看到任何系列的通貨膨脹，那麼我們將在 2026 年再看到一次削減，削減幅度為 0.25 個百分點。

So the long-term interest rates are going to be stabilized at around 3 percent for the foreseeable future.

是以，在可預見的未來，長期利率將穩定在 3% 左右。

We cannot possibly afford to go any lower than that because we are seeing still huge inflation.

我們不可能承受比這更低的價格，因為我們看到的仍然是巨大的通貨膨脹。

Inflation this year, according to the Federal Reserve itself, is going to hit about 3 percent, and after that, most likely, if things continue the way they are, it might actually slow down after that to 2.6 percent in 2026 and then 2.1 percent by the end of 2027.

根據美聯儲自己的預測，今年的通脹率將達到 3%左右，此後，如果情況繼續如此，通脹率很有可能在 2026 年實際放緩至 2.6%，然後到 2027 年底降至 2.1%。

But these are so far projections, they might happen, they might not happen, because a lot of things could happen.

但這些都是目前的預測，可能會發生，也可能不會發生，因為很多事情都有可能發生。

The Federal Reserve isn't always accurate in its projections.

美聯儲的預測並不總是準確的。

But Jay Paul made one thing very clear, that the US economy is slowing down, so if you compare the first half of 2025 to the first half of 2024, there is a serious slowdown.

但傑伊-保羅說得很清楚，美國經濟正在放緩，是以，如果把2025年上半年與2024年上半年相比，美國經濟放緩的情況非常嚴重。

In the first half of 2024, the real GDP grew by 2.5 percentage points, in the first half of 2025, it has grown by 1.5 percentage points.

2024 年上半年，實際國內生產總值增長了 2.5 個百分點，2025 年上半年增長了 1.5 個百分點。

Most likely, it's because of the tariffs, that these businesses are scared, businesses are not willing to invest, and a lot of businesses are cutting costs.

很可能是因為關稅，這些企業感到害怕，企業不願意投資，很多企業在削減成本。

Because if you look at any business expense, most likely, in any business, you will find out that hiring people and payroll is the biggest expense, so that's where businesses usually start cutting their costs.

因為如果你看一下任何企業的開支，很可能會發現，在任何企業中，僱人和工資是最大的開支，所以企業通常會從這裡開始削減成本。

In fact, in the first half of 2025, we already had 1 negative GDP growth, and probability of that repeating by the end of the year is extremely high, because we don't have the data for Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, and if any of them is going to be negative, then we might actually need to lower interest rates further, but that puts the Federal Reserve in a very strange dichotomy.

事實上，在2025年上半年，我們已經出現了1次GDP負增長，而這種情況在今年年底重演的概率極高，因為我們還沒有2025年第三季度和2025年第四季度的數據，如果其中任何一個季度出現負增長，那麼我們可能真的需要進一步降低利率，但這讓美聯儲陷入了一個非常奇怪的兩難境地。

On one side, inflation is rising, so they have to increase interest rates.

一方面，通脹在上升，所以他們不得不提高利率。

On the other side, the labor market is weakening and the economy is weakening, so they need to lower the cost of borrowing to boost the economy.

另一方面，勞動力市場疲軟，經濟疲軟，是以他們需要降低借貸成本來提振經濟。

So according to the Fed itself, the unemployment by the end of the year is going to hit 4.5%.

是以，根據美聯儲自己的預測，今年年底的失業率將達到 4.5%。

And the trend over the next couple of years was very clear that, with each year, unemployment is rising.

接下來幾年的趨勢非常明顯，失業率逐年上升。

In fact, in June of this year, it was the first time since probably in the last 5 to 7 years, that we had a negative jobs report, where the United States has lost more than 19 thousand jobs in a single month, and the probability of that repeating throughout the entire year is only rising, we are no longer adding enough jobs.

事實上，今年 6 月，可能是過去 5 到 7 年以來，我們首次發佈了負面的就業報告，美國在單月內失去了 1.9 萬多個工作崗位，而且這種情況在全年重演的可能性只增不減，我們不再增加足夠的工作崗位。

People have been talking about this probably over the last year, but now we are seeing the effects, that yes, it is actually true that companies are firing people, that companies are very careful with hiring people, that AI rush that we had since the end of 2022 is over.

大概在過去的一年裡，人們一直在談論這個問題，但現在我們看到了效果，是的，公司確實在解僱員工，公司在招聘員工時非常謹慎，2022 年底以來的人工智能熱潮已經過去了。

But here is the biggest problem that I don't see anybody is actually talking.

但最大的問題是，我看不到有人真正在說話。

When Donald Trump and the republicans passed the big beautiful bill, the point or the idea behind it was very simple.

當唐納德-特朗普和共和黨人通過美麗大法案時，其背後的觀點或想法非常簡單。

The United States is facing an existential threat of rising deficit.

美國正面臨著赤字上升的生存威脅。

The deficit is about 6.5% and that is the main cause that the United States is having the largest debt in history.

美國的財政赤字約為 6.5%，這也是美國成為史上最大債務國的主要原因。

So either we are going to raise taxes and pay off that debt, or we are going to lower taxes so that the GDP starts growing faster and the same percentage of a larger GDP is going to cover the deficit and will pay off the debt.

是以，要麼我們增加稅收，償還債務；要麼我們降低稅收，使國內生產總值（GDP）開始加速增長，而國內生產總值（GDP）增長的相同百分比將彌補赤字，償還債務。

So by passing the big beautiful bill, we have made Trump's tax cuts permanent, and secondly, we got rid of a lot of other taxes such as the overtime tax, the tax on tips, and based on it, the public debt to GDP ratio by 2034 should have gone down to 94%.

是以，通過這個漂亮的大法案，我們將特朗普的減稅政策永久化了，其次，我們還取消了很多其他稅種，比如加班稅、小費稅等，在此基礎上，到2034年，公共債務與GDP的比率應該下降到94%。

If we did not pass the big beautiful bill and kept things the way they are, it would have risen to 117%.

如果我們沒有通過這個美麗的大法案，而是保持現狀，這個比例就會上升到 117%。

For this to happen, the white house predicted that the GDP throughout the entire Trump presidency is going to grow between 4.6% to 4.9%.

為此，白宮預測，在整個特朗普總統任期內，國內生產總值將增長 4.6% 至 4.9%。

And after that, it is going to slow down to 2.4% up to 2.7%.

之後，增速將放緩至 2.4%，最高可達 2.7%。

These are the numbers from the page of white house.

These are the numbers that Donald Trump himself posted.

這是唐納德-特朗普自己公佈的數字。

So I am not coming out with these numbers, I don't want to be accused that you are coming out with these unrealistic numbers.

是以，我並沒有提出這些數字，我也不想被指責說你提出了這些不切實際的數字。

So for this to happen, we need this kind of GDP growth.

是以，要實現這一點，我們需要這樣的國內生產總值增長。

Now the question is, are we going to see this kind of GDP growth?

現在的問題是，我們還能看到這樣的國內生產總值增長嗎？

If you have listened very carefully to what the chairman of the fed said, we are nowhere close to that.

如果你們仔細聆聽美聯儲主席的講話，就會發現我們還遠遠沒有達到那個水準。

Because according to the federal reserve, the United States will witness a GDP growth in 2025 of about 1.6%.

因為根據聯邦儲備局的預測，美國 2025 年的 GDP 增長率約為 1.6%。

By next year, it will slow down to 1.8%, by 2027, it will be 1.9% and by 2028, 1.8%.

到明年，將放緩至 1.8%，到 2027 年將為 1.9%，到 2028 年將為 1.8%。

So throughout the entire Trump presidency, we are not even going to see a 2% GDP growth, leave alone 4.6% or 4.9%.

是以，在整個特朗普總統任期內，我們甚至看不到 2% 的 GDP 增長，更不用說 4.6% 或 4.9%了。

And in the long run, according to the white house, it's supposed to grow to 2.4% and 2.7%.

而從長遠來看，根據白宮的說法，增長率應該會達到 2.4% 和 2.7%。

But according to the fed, in the long run, it will stabilize at about 1.8%.

但根據美聯儲的說法，從長遠來看，它將穩定在 1.8% 左右。

So we are reducing the revenues of the government, and the GDP is not growing as much as we expected based on our projection, which means that government's deficit over the next couple of years is going to grow, is going to expand, which will force the government to rely more on debts and less on tax revenues, which is going to cause massive inflation.

是以，我們正在減少政府的收入，而 GDP 的增長並不像我們預測的那麼高，這意味著未來幾年政府的赤字將會增加，將會擴大，這將迫使政府更多地依賴債務，而更少地依賴稅收收入，這將導致大規模的通貨膨脹。

You see, anytime that the government is spending money, you have to understand one most important thing, that that is massive inflation.

你看，只要政府花錢，你就必須明白一件最重要的事情，那就是大規模通貨膨脹。

But anytime the government is borrowing money, that is double inflation if you want to call it like that, because the government is borrowing money from the future and increasing the supply of money of the present, which is causing massive inflation throughout the entire economy.

但凡政府借錢，如果你想這麼說，那就是雙重通脹，因為政府從未來借錢，增加了現在的貨幣供應量，從而導致整個經濟的大規模通脹。

So even though that the fed expects that the inflation will slow down by the end of 2027, the probability of that happening is going dramatically low because the government is going to run a much bigger deficit than expected.

是以，儘管美聯儲預計到 2027 年底通脹將放緩，但由於政府將出現比預期大得多的赤字，這種情況發生的概率將大大降低。

And these are not my words, these are literally the estimation by the fed and the white house.

這不是我說的，這是美聯儲和白宮的真實估計。

What do you think you are supposed to do when you are going to see higher inflation, lower GDP growth and lower wages growth?

當通貨膨脹率上升、GDP 增長率下降、工資增長率降低時，你認為你應該怎麼辦？

If the labor market is weakening, that means that companies are not willing to pay you more, that means that companies are not willing to raise your wages, that means that the cost of living is going to rise while your wages are going to stay.

如果勞動力市場疲軟，就意味著公司不願意付給你更多的工資，意味著公司不願意提高你的工資，意味著生活成本將上升，而你的工資將保持不變。

But there is one thing you have to understand, anytime there is any kind of inflation, it doesn't matter who is causing that inflation, prices are going to rise, especially asset prices.

但有一點你必須明白，無論何時出現任何形式的通脹，無論通脹是由誰引起的，物價都會上漲，尤其是資產價格。

Yes, your wages might not rise much, but you have to understand one most important thing, that the market is going to skyrocket.

是的，你的工資可能漲不了多少，但你必須明白一件最重要的事情，那就是市場會飛速發展。

The market is not going to stop, because as the value of the dollar keeps going down, the value of the real assets in the market will continue rising.

市場不會停止，因為隨著美元不斷貶值，市場上實際資產的價值將繼續上升。

So we might be on the brink of another stock market rally, even the economy is going to suffer throughout the next 1 or 2 years.

是以，我們可能正處於股市再次反彈的邊緣，即使經濟在未來一兩年內都會受到影響。

Which is why this is your opportunity, I don't want anybody to miss this opportunity, everybody must be in the markets, of course, you should not be buying stocks blindly, you have to understand whats happening, you have to understand the valuations, you have to know what are the best stocks to buy right now, and its not just by listening to somebody, you have to know your stuff because you are investing your money, and when you don't understand the reasons why you are buying certain stocks, when there is any kind of a catastrophe and a crisis in the market, you are going to sell in the wrong time.

這就是為什麼這是你的機會，我不希望任何人錯過這個機會，每個人都必須進入市場，當然，你不應該盲目地購買股票，你必須瞭解發生了什麼，你必須瞭解估值，你必須知道什麼是現在最值得購買的股票、如果你不瞭解購買某些股票的原因，當市場出現任何災難和危機時，你就會在錯誤的時間賣出股票。

So if you want to understand why stocks are valued at certain prices, then check out the first link in the description and make sure that you don't miss this opportunity.

是以，如果你想了解股票為何以特定價格估值，那麼請查看說明中的第一個鏈接，確保不要錯過這次機會。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.