Name: 日本經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (Japan's Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-09-05T18:03:17.000Z
Duration: 16 min 22 s

現在進行式

Japan's economy is collapsing right in front of our eyes.

It is on the verge of 1929 style depression.

它正處於 1929 年式大蕭條的邊緣。

In fact, the Japanese economy has been collapsing for the last couple of decades.

事實上，過去幾十年來，日本經濟一直在崩潰。

And Donald Trump is about to put the last nail in the coffin.

而唐納德-特朗普即將在棺材上釘上最後一顆釘子。

Because if the supreme court is not going to stop Trump's tariffs, then Japan is the first country that will pay a tremendous price for that.

因為如果最高法院不打算阻止特朗普的關稅，那麼日本將是第一個為此付出巨大代價的國家。

It might seem like I am exaggerating, but I am not.

也許我看起來有些誇張，但其實不然。

Because if you look at the facts just like I did, then you will have the exact same view.

因為如果你像我一樣去看事實，那麼你也會有完全相同的看法。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Over the last couple of years alone, the Japanese economy has already went through a recession.

僅在過去幾年中，日本經濟就經歷了一次衰退。

What is a recession at the end of the day?

國內生產總值連續三次負增長。

而日本早在 2024 年就擁有了它們。

In 2023, they also had three negative GDP growth, but they were not consecutive, so we cannot call them a recession.

2023 年，他們的 GDP 也出現了三次負增長，但不是連續的，所以我們不能稱之為衰退。

In the last couple of quarters, it was barely growing by 0.1 percentage point.

在過去的幾個季度中，增長率僅為 0.1 個百分點。

And this has been the state of the Japanese economy since 1995.

這就是日本經濟自 1995 年以來的狀況。

In fact, if you look at this graph, then you understand how big the crisis is.

事實上，如果你看看這張圖，就會明白危機有多大。

In 2011 and 2012, the Japanese GDP was 6.3 trillion dollars.

2011 年和 2012 年，日本國內生產總值為 6.3 萬億美元。

如今，這一數字約為 4 萬億美元。

So Japan basically lost 20 percent of its GDP over the last 12 to 13 years.

是以，在過去的 12 至 13 年間，日本的國內生產總值基本上下降了 20%。

想象一下，這樣的事情會發生嗎？

Imagine United States GDP would grow from 30 trillion dollars to 22 trillion dollars in the next couple of years.

試想，美國的國內生產總值將在未來幾年內從 30 萬億美元增長到 22 萬億美元。

In fact, if you compare what is happening to Japan today to 1929 Great Depression of the United States, the United States lost 27 percent of its GDP during that crisis.

事實上，如果把日本今天發生的情況與 1929 年美國大蕭條相比，美國在那場危機中損失了 27% 的國內生產總值。

So Japan's economic crisis right now is already almost as big as the 1929 Great Depression.

是以，日本目前的經濟危機幾乎已經相當於 1929 年的大蕭條。

Back in 1990s, Japan represented 18 percent of the global economy.

上世紀 90 年代，日本佔全球經濟的 18%。

It was the world's second-largest economy and had so much influence.

它是世界第二大經濟體，影響力巨大。

That number today has fallen to less than 4 percent.

如今，這一數字已降至不到 4%。

What makes the entire situation so sad is that back in 1980s, Japan produced almost half of the global semiconductors.

讓整個局勢變得如此可悲的是，早在 20 世紀 80 年代，日本生產的半導體產品就幾乎佔到全球的一半。

Today, whoever controls the computer chips controls the world because we are on the verge of an AI revolution.

今天，誰控制了計算機芯片，誰就控制了世界，因為我們正處於人工智能革命的邊緣。

In fact, the most valuable company in the world is Nvidia that designs the chips.

事實上，世界上最有價值的公司就是設計芯片的 Nvidia。

So the question is, why is Japan not rich when Japan was already producing half of the global semiconductors?

那麼問題來了，日本已經生產了全球一半的半導體，為什麼日本還不富裕呢？

That number has decreased to less than 10 percent today, and the entire industry now is controlled by Nvidia, TSMC, and Samsung.

如今，這一數字已下降到不足 10%，整個行業已被英偉達、臺積電和三星所控制。

It's not just the United States that is taking advantage out of this.

Samsung is a South Korean company, TSMC is a Taiwanese company, and both Taiwan and South Korea are neighbors of Back in 1980s, 32 out of the 50 largest companies in the world were Japanese companies.

三星是一家韓國公司，臺積電是一家臺灣公司，臺灣和韓國都是日本的鄰國。 早在 20 世紀 80 年代，全球最大的 50 家公司中有 32 家是日本公司。

So if you would literally just pick up the list, what are the top 500 companies in the world back in 1980s, you will see Japan, Japan, Japan.

是以，如果你從字面上去尋找上世紀 80 年代世界 500 強企業的名單，你會發現日本、日本、日本。

Like literally more than half of all the companies were Japanese.

一半以上的公司都是日本公司。

If you pick up the exact same list today, you will see one Japanese company in that list, and that is Toyota.

如果你今天拿起一份完全相同的名單，你會發現其中有一家日本公司，那就是豐田。

And it's not like in the top 10 or the top 20, it is literally probably like number 48.

而且不是前 10 名或前 20 名，可能是第 48 名。

Three years from now, even Toyota is going to lose its status and Japan won't have a single company in the top 50 largest companies in the world.

三年後，連豐田公司也將失去其地位，日本將沒有一家公司躋身全球最大的 50 家公司之列。

Do you see the strategy that is happening with the Japanese economy right in front of our eyes?

你看到日本經濟正在我們眼前實施的戰略了嗎？

這裡有一堂關於如何節約的課。

If your economy is collapsing and falling down, you might think that they would sit down, come up with a plan and save the economy.

如果你的經濟正在崩潰和下滑，你可能會認為他們會坐下來，拿出一個計劃並拯救經濟。

That would be the most logical sense to do for any government or any economist.

對任何政府或經濟學家來說，這都是最合乎邏輯的做法。

But what Japan has done since 1990s is only to destroy their economy by simply borrowing as much money as possible and then misusing that money, which literally just led the country to a debt trap that it cannot or no longer will be able to get out of it.

但自上世紀 90 年代以來，日本所做的只是通過儘可能多地借錢，然後濫用這些錢來破壞其經濟，這實際上只是將該國帶入了一個債務陷阱，使其無法或再也無法擺脫這個陷阱。

If you go back to 1970s and 80s, you will see that the amount of the government debt that the Japanese government has been issuing has grown substantially over the years.

如果追溯到 20 世紀 70 年代和 80 年代，你會發現日本政府發行的國債數額在這些年裡大幅增長。

Because interest rates on that debt was falling down.

So if the debt is so cheap, why not borrow as much money as you can?

既然債務如此便宜，為什麼不盡可能多地借錢呢？

Well, that is the debt trap because if you don't pay off that debt, then the interest rates sooner or later are going to rise and that's when you will have a debt problem.

這就是債務陷阱，因為如果你不還清債務，那麼利率遲早會上升，那時你就會有債務問題。

In fact, if you look at the interest payments, back in 1980s and 90s, interest payments represented a huge portion of the government.

事實上，如果你看看利息支出，在 20 世紀 80 年代和 90 年代，利息支出佔政府支出的很大一部分。

However, as the interest rate kept falling down after that in 1995 and later on, the interest payments on that debt were extremely minimal which allowed the government to prevent itself from a default.

然而，由於 1995 年及以後利率不斷下降，這筆債務的利息支出極少，從而使政府避免了違約。

But that did not stop the government from borrowing more and more money.

但這並沒有阻止政府借越來越多的錢。

And that's why the amount of government debt in the market has grown substantially.

這就是為什麼市場上的政府債務數量大幅增長的原因。

And that's why if you look at the debt to GDP ratio of Japan, you would see that since 1990s, that number has exponentially grown and today it at around 216 percent which makes it the largest debt to GDP ratio in the world.

這就是為什麼如果你看一下日本的債務與 GDP 的比率，就會發現自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，這個數字呈指數增長，如今已達到約 216%，成為世界上債務與 GDP 比率最高的國家。

It's even larger than most of the European economies that are also filled with debt.

它甚至比同樣債務纏身的大多數歐洲經濟體還要大。

Of course, the Japanese debt is slightly different from European debt because it is not as exposed to the rest of the world and the global markets as much as the European debt.

當然，日本債務與歐洲債務略有不同，因為日本債務不像歐洲債務那樣暴露於世界其他地區和全球市場。

但儘管如此，這仍然是一筆債務。

And now I want you to look at the government's revenue and expenditure.

現在我想讓你們看看政府的收支情況。

And this is where you see the real problem.

So this is the tax revenues of the government.

Since 1990s, the tax revenues has been going down.

自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，稅收一直在下降。

So the logical thing would be, if your tax revenues are going down, then you should cut your spending because if your spending continues growing while you are making less money, you are driving yourself into a debt trap.

是以，合乎邏輯的做法是，如果你的稅收收入在減少，那麼你就應該削減開支，因為如果你的開支持續增長，而你的收入卻在減少，那麼你就會把自己逼入債務陷阱。

Imagine somebody who is losing his job or is making less money each year but then he starts overusing his credit cards and his debts keep growing.

試想一下，一個人每年都在失業或收入減少，但他卻開始過度使用信用卡，債務不斷增加。

That is the most irresponsible thing that somebody would do.

But based on the graph that you see right in front of you, that is exactly what Japan has done.

但從眼前的圖表來看，日本正是這樣做的。

The government expenditure kept growing tremendously but tax revenues kept falling down.

政府支出持續大幅增長，但稅收卻持續下降。

That huge deficit since 1990s has led the government to make huge interest payments.

自 20 世紀 90 年代以來的鉅額赤字導致政府需要支付鉅額利息。

Just last year alone, the Japanese government has spent 25 percent of all the government's revenue just to make the interest payments.

僅去年一年，日本政府為支付利息就花費了政府全部收入的 25%。

Imagine you are making 100 thousand dollars a year and you have so much debt that in order to prevent a default, you have to make your minimum interest payments.

試想一下，你的年收入是 10 萬美元，但你的債務卻非常多，為了防止違約，你必須支付最低利息。

We are not talking about the debt payments, we are talking about the interest payments alone.

我們說的不是還債，而是利息支出。

And imagine you have to pay 25 thousand dollars a year just to make sure that you are not defaulting on your debt.

想象一下，為了確保不拖欠債務，你每年要支付 2.5 萬美元。

That is the situation that the Japanese government is right now, which is why it's a real disaster for any government.

這就是日本政府現在的處境，是以這對任何政府來說都是一場真正的災難。

Even the United States is not at that stage, even though the United States has the world's largest debt in the world.

即使是美國也沒有達到這個階段，儘管美國擁有世界上最大的債務。

What makes the Japanese debt very different is that most of that debt or at least half of it is being owned by the bank of Japan.

日本債務的不同之處在於，大部分債務或至少一半債務由日本銀行擁有。

So on one side, it is a real debt, on the other side, because it's owned by the bank of Japan, it does not pose a real threat to the Japanese government.

是以，一方面，這是一筆真實的債務，另一方面，由於它歸日本銀行所有，對日本政府並不構成真正的威脅。

Because at the end of the day, what is the job of the central bank?

因為說到底，中央銀行的工作是什麼？

Is to preserve the Japanese economy and ensure that it does not so they will manage it somehow.

是為了保護日本經濟，並確保它不會如此，是以他們會以某種方式管理它。

But here is where the real problem starts. 5 to 10 percent of the Japanese debt is being owned by foreign investors.

但真正的問題就在這裡。日本債務的 5%至 10%由外國投資者擁有。

Even though that number is low, the debt is so huge that even that 5 to 10 percent represents a huge debt.

儘管這個數字很低，但債務是如此龐大，即使是 5%到 10%，也是一筆鉅額債務。

Because if you are a Japanese financial institution, if you are a Japanese bank, if you are a Japanese insurance company, if you are a Japanese some kind of financial institution, then by law, you're obligated to ensure that a portion of your money is being invested in the government bonds of your country.

因為如果你是日本的金融機構，如果你是日本的銀行，如果你是日本的保險公司，如果你是日本的某種金融機構，那麼根據法律，你有義務確保你的一部分資金投資於本國的政府債券。

The same rules apply to the United States.

And that's why if you pull out the financial statements of any bank in the United States, JP Morgan, Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, you will see that they own a lot of US government bonds.

這就是為什麼如果你拿出美國任何一家銀行的財務報表，摩根大通、大通、富國銀行、花旗銀行、美國銀行，你都會發現它們擁有大量的美國政府債券。

If you pull out any bank from England, from the UK, you will see in their financial statements that they own a good portion of their assets in UK government bonds.

如果你拿出英國的任何一家銀行，你就會在它們的財務報表中看到，它們的資產中有很大一部分是英國政府債券。

是以，這並不是日本獨有的現象。

If the Japanese government won't be able to continue making their interest payments, what is going to happen to all of these financial institutions?

如果日本政府無法繼續支付利息，那麼所有這些金融機構會怎麼樣呢？

What's going to happen to the banks in Japan when they won't be receiving interest on their investments, which makes their investments worthless, which will lead the entire financial industry in Japan to collapse?

如果日本的銀行收不到投資利息，導致投資一文不值，從而導致日本整個金融業崩潰，那麼日本的銀行會怎麼樣呢？

Why are you making the assumption that the government of Japan won't be able to continue paying the interest on their debt payments?

你為什麼假設日本政府無法繼續支付債務利息？

Well, look at Japan's 30-year government bonds.

看看日本的 30 年期政府債券吧。

Over the last year alone, they have increased from less than 2 percent, from about 9.1 percent to 3.3 percent.

僅在過去一年中，這一比例就從不到 2%，從約 9.1%增至 3.3%。

With each percentage point that the rates on government bonds are rising, it is increasing the cost of refinancing the debt, which means that the government will have spend a bigger share of their revenue to maintain the debt.

政府債券利率每上升一個百分點，就會增加債務再融資的成本，這意味著政府將不得不花費更大份額的收入來維持債務。

So last year, when the interest rates were below 2 percent, the government has already spent a quarter of its entire revenue to maintain the debt.

是以，去年當利率低於 2% 時，政府已經花費了全部收入的四分之一來維持債務。

Now, if that number grows to 4 percent, suddenly, maybe the government will have to spend half of the entire revenue on maintaining its debt.

現在，如果這個數字增長到 4%，突然之間，政府可能不得不將全部收入的一半用於維持債務。

And if you listen very carefully to what the chairman of the federal reserve said at Jackson hall, he made it clear that the era of low interest rates is over.

如果你仔細聆聽美聯儲主席在傑克遜大廳的講話，他明確表示，低利率時代已經結束。