Name: 緊急：投資者正在為股市大跌做準備 (URGENT: Investors Are Preparing For A Massive Stock Market Crush)
Uploaded: 2025-08-14T18:13:19.000Z
Duration: 14 min 31 s

Every single week, the stock market is crushing since Trump took office.

自特朗普上任以來，股市每週都在下跌。

Some stocks are down by 10 percent, others by 5, but the overall S&P 500 is down by around 2.5 percent.

有些股票下跌了 10%，有些下跌了 5%，但標準普爾 500 指數整體下跌了約 2.5%。

轉承詞

And that's because Trump is about to start the greatest trade war of the 21st century.

這是因為特朗普即將發動 21 世紀最大規模的貿易戰。

It is not going to be like the first trade war that Trump has started with China back in 2017 and 2018.

這不會像特朗普早在 2017 年和 2018 年與中國挑起的第一場貿易戰那樣。

It's not just going to be against Canada or Mexico.

這不僅僅是針對加拿大或墨西哥。

This is literally a trade war against everybody else, against the rest of the world.

這簡直就是一場針對其他人、針對世界其他國家的貿易戰。

And that is going to have a fundamental impact not just on the stock market.

這不僅會對股市產生根本性影響。

He is about to reshape the entire global system.

He wants to rewrite the rules that the world has been working and trading for the last 30 and 40 years.

他想改寫過去三四十年來世界的工作和交易規則。

So here in this video, let's try to understand what exactly is happening, what exactly Trump is going to change, how is that impacting the stock market, and how is that actually leading to a stock market crash, and what is going to be the endgame.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們試著瞭解到底發生了什麼，特朗普到底要改變什麼，這對股市有什麼影響，這實際上是如何導致股市崩盤的，以及最終的結局會是什麼。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Trump is about to impose reciprocal tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs basically means that we as the United States are going to impose any country the exact same amount of tariffs that they are imposing on us.

互惠關稅基本上意味著，作為美國，我們將向任何國家徵收與他們向我們徵收的關稅完全相同的關稅。

And some people might believe that or think that right now Trump is going insane and he is actually imposing so many tariffs on so many countries, but if you actually dig into the numbers, you find out that for a very long time, other countries have imposed really high taxes, really high tariffs on the US goods while the United States did not do anything in return.

有些人可能會相信這一點，或者認為現在的特朗普瘋了，他居然對這麼多國家徵收這麼多關稅，但如果你真正深入研究這些數字，你就會發現，在很長一段時間裡，其他國家對美國商品徵收了非常高的稅，非常高的關稅，而美國卻沒有做出任何回報。

Because by imposing reciprocal tariffs, the United States is going to increase the prices for the domestic consumption.

因為通過徵收對等關稅，美國將提高國內消費的價格。

And to keep the prices low in the United States, the US simply kept those tariffs very low.

為了壓低美國國內的價格，美國乾脆把關稅壓得很低。

But over the last couple of decades, the United States has accumulated such a huge trade deficit that it understands that it no longer can play by those rules, which is why we are changing the rules.

但在過去幾十年裡，美國積累了如此巨大的貿易赤字，它明白自己再也不能按照這些規則行事了，這就是為什麼我們要改變規則。

The European Union, one of the major trading partners of the United States, has a 50% tariff on all the beef that comes into the European Union.

歐盟是美國的主要貿易伙伴之一，對進入歐盟的所有牛肉徵收 50%的關稅。

So if from the United States, you are exporting beef to the EU, you have to pay a 50% tariff.

是以，如果從美國向歐盟出口牛肉，就必須支付 50%的關稅。

The European Union also has an almost up to 45% tariff on all dairy products, we are talking about milk, cheese, and anything related to that.

歐盟還對所有乳製品徵收幾乎高達 45% 的關稅，我們說的是牛奶、奶酪以及與之相關的任何產品。

There is also a 25% tariff on seafood products.

此外，還對海產品徵收 25% 的關稅。

There is a 10% tariff on all the cars that come into the European Union.

所有進入歐盟的汽車都要徵收 10%的關稅。

I guess this is the tariff that Germany probably convinced into our European Union.

我想，這可能就是德國說服我們加入歐盟的關稅吧。

Because one of the main exports of Germany is cars of course.

因為德國的主要出口產品之一當然是汽車。

And when you have a 10% tariff on all the cars that come into the European Union, well, BMW and Mercedes enjoy tariff free because they are part of the European Union and they can easily sell their cars tariff free to Spain, France, Italy.

如果對所有進入歐盟的汽車徵收 10%的關稅，那麼寶馬和奔馳就可以享受免關稅待遇，因為它們是歐盟的一部分，可以很容易地向西班牙、法國、意大利免關稅銷售汽車。

The European Union also has a 25% tariff on all the steel that comes into the European Union.

歐盟還對進入歐盟的所有鋼材徵收 25% 的關稅。

So there is basically a quota, an amount of steel that can enter the European Union.

是以，基本上有一個配額，即可以進入歐盟的鋼材數量。

If you exceed that quota, you have to pay a 25% tariff.

如果超過配額，就必須支付 25% 的關稅。

And that quota is specifically designed in such a way that the European steel manufacturers actually prosper and stay in business.

而配額的具體設計方式，實際上是為了讓歐洲的鋼鐵製造商繁榮起來，繼續經營下去。

If we actually import more than that quota, then those steel manufacturers in the European Union start to suffer, and that's something that the EU does not want to, which is why those countries will have to pay a 25% tariff by bringing that steel into the EU.

如果我們的實際進口量超過了配額，那麼歐盟的那些鋼鐵製造商就會開始遭受損失，而這正是歐盟所不願意看到的，這也是為什麼這些國家將鋼鐵帶入歐盟時必須支付 25% 關稅的原因。

That's how they actually protect their steel manufacturers.

這才是他們真正保護鋼鐵製造商的方式。

And the United States for a long time did not actually have those tariffs on aluminium and steel.

而美國在很長一段時間裡實際上並沒有對鋁和鋼徵收關稅。

The first aluminium and steel tariffs that were imposed by the United States was by Trump during the first Trump presidency.

美國第一次徵收鋁和鋼鐵關稅是在特朗普第一次擔任總統期間。

Because Trump, look at all of these, they are like, wait a second, why on earth the European Union is charging us a 25% tariff on our steel while we don't actually charge them.

因為特朗普，看看這些，他們就會想，等一下，究竟為什麼歐盟要對我們的鋼鐵徵收 25% 的關稅，而我們實際上並沒有向他們徵收。

And that's why the European steel manufacturers, the European aluminium manufacturers survived but the ones that are in the United States have been actually closing down over the last 50 years.

這就是為什麼歐洲的鋼鐵製造商、歐洲的鋁製品製造商能夠生存下來，而美國的鋼鐵製造商在過去 50 年裡卻不斷倒閉的原因。

The United States tariffs are much lower than the EU tariffs.

美國的關稅遠低於歐盟的關稅。

For example, on dairy products, it's up to 25% at best.

例如，奶製品的這一比例最多可達 25%。

On seafood, there is almost no tariff or whatsoever, except a few exceptions.

除少數例外情況外，對海產品幾乎不徵收任何關稅。

On cars, up until Trump, there was a 2.5% tariff.

在特朗普之前，汽車的關稅為 2.5%。

And there was a 0% tariff if that car was manufactured in North America, either in Canada or Mexico.

如果汽車是在北美（加拿大或墨西哥）生產的，則關稅為 0%。

And that is the game that Trump is actually changing.

而這正是特朗普正在改變的遊戲規則。

And it's actually weird why the European Union had a 10% tariff while the United States had a 2.5% tariff.

事實上，歐盟徵收 10%的關稅，而美國只徵收 2.5%的關稅，這也很奇怪。

In this game, obviously the German cars are going to win and dominate the US market, while the US cars or the US car manufacturers won't be able to compete in the European Union.

在這場博弈中，德國汽車顯然會勝出並主導美國市場，而美國汽車或美國汽車製造商則無法在歐盟市場上競爭。

I guess somebody is winning out of this trade deal, and that is Germany.

我想有人會從這項貿易協議中獲勝，那就是德國。

But that game is over because the United States have already imposed like a 25% tariff on all the cars that enter the United States.

但這個遊戲已經結束了，因為美國已經對所有進入美國的汽車徵收了 25% 的關稅。

So if you are charging us 45%, we are going to charge you 45%.

是以，如果你們向我們收取 45%，我們也要向你們收取 45%。

If you are charging us 25%, like here, we are going to charge you 25%.

如果你向我們收取 25%的費用，就像這裡一樣，我們也要向你收取 25%的費用。

If you are charging us 50%, we will charge you 50%.

如果你向我們收取 50%，我們也會向你收取 50%。

So we are simply going to respond to you with the exact same tariffs that you are actually charging us.

是以，我們將以與你們實際收取我們的費用完全相同的關稅來答覆你們。

And because you have been charging us all these tariffs for the last decades or so, we are first going to charge you a 25% on all the cars that come into the United States, and then an additional 10% just because you are charging us an additional 10%.

因為在過去的幾十年裡，你們一直在向我們徵收這些關稅，所以我們首先要對所有進入美國的汽車徵收 25%的關稅，然後再額外徵收 10%，因為你們要向我們額外徵收 10%。

Imagine how many trade agreements the United States is going to renegotiate.

試想一下，美國要重新談判多少貿易協定。

Again, the world is a very big place, there are over 200 countries all across the globe.

同樣，世界很大，全球有 200 多個國家。

But if the United States is going to change the trade agreements with the top 10 or top 15 trade partners, we are talking about the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and a short list of other countries, then it is going to fundamentally change the entire game.

但是，如果美國要改變與前 10 大或前 15 大貿易伙伴（我們說的是歐盟、加拿大、墨西哥、日本、韓國和其他一些國家）的貿易協定，那麼整個遊戲規則就會發生根本性的變化。

Because the US doesn't trade much with other countries.

因為美國與其他國家的貿易並不多。

If you look at the US trade with Argentina, for example, there isn't much trade going on.

以美國與阿根廷的貿易為例，雙方的貿易往來並不多。

But if you look at the US trade with Japan, then there are hundreds of billions of dollars annually and there is a huge trade deficit, that Japan is actually taking advantage out of the US economy.

但如果你看看美國與日本的貿易，每年有數千億美元的貿易逆差，日本實際上正在從美國經濟中攫取好處。

The second part of the story is the hidden taxes that people don't talk about often.

故事的第二部分是人們不常提及的隱性稅收。

And these are the subsidies that governments provide.

Quite often, when a government wants a single industry to prosper, the government starts to subsidize that company or that industry.

很多時候，當政府希望某個行業繁榮發展時，政府就會開始補貼該公司或該行業。

By giving them tax breaks, or giving them loans that are free of charge, or literally just giving them money if they want to, or providing them with some kind of assistance.

給他們減稅，或者給他們免費貸款，或者只要他們願意就給他們錢，或者向他們提供某種援助。

Suppose you want a steel industry in your country to prosper.

假設您希望貴國的鋼鐵工業繁榮昌盛。

You can literally just give them all the money they want and they can sell that steel at a loss.

你簡直可以把所有的錢都給他們，讓他們虧本賣鋼。

Over time, they will develop economies of scale and they will run out of business other companies and that's how they will actually dominate the entire industry.

隨著時間的推移，它們將發展出規模經濟，將其他公司擠出市場，從而真正主導整個行業。

And that is the strategy some countries have been following.

而這正是一些國家一直遵循的戰略。

Even the European countries have been following that.

Let's say for example, BMW is going to spend a million dollars in order to buy steel.

比如說，寶馬公司要花一百萬美元購買鋼材。

But because this is Germany, there is a 19% VAT.

但因為這裡是德國，所以要繳納 19% 的增值稅。

Every time you buy something, you have to pay a VAT, even if it's not the final product.

每次買東西都要交增值稅，即使不是最終產品。

So if a business actually buys steels from a certain manufacturer, they have to pay a 19% value-added tax.

是以，如果企業真的從某個製造商那裡購買鋼材，就必須繳納 19% 的增值稅。

So the total amount of taxes that BMW is going to pay is 190 thousand dollars based on that million dollar purchase.

是以，按照這一百萬美元的採購額計算，寶馬公司需要繳納的稅款總額為 19 萬美元。

Then they are going to go and sell 5 million dollars worth of cars.

然後，他們要去賣價值 500 萬美元的汽車。

Each client who is going to buy that BMW is going to pay that 19% in taxes.

每個購買寶馬車的客戶都要繳納 19% 的稅款。

So overall, BMW is going to collect 950 thousand dollars in value-added tax.

是以，總體而言，寶馬公司將徵收 95 萬美元的增值稅。

So the final price at the store is going to be plus 19%.

是以，商店的最終價格會加上 19%。

So if the car costs 100 thousand dollars, then the final price is going to be 119 thousand dollars.

是以，如果這輛車的價格是 10 萬美元，那麼最終價格就是 11.9 萬美元。

So I am paying an extra 19% for buying that car.

I am paying that money to the BMW, and BMW has to collect that money and pay it to the  But because of government subsidies, you can deduct the money that you paid in taxes and simply pay as the difference.

我向寶馬公司支付這筆錢，而寶馬公司因為政府補貼而必須收取這筆錢並將其支付給政府，你可以扣除你支付的稅款，只需支付差額即可。

So 950 thousand dollars minus 190 thousand dollars, and suddenly the amount of taxes that BMW has to pay is 760 thousand dollars.

是以，95 萬美元減去 19 萬美元，寶馬公司需要繳納的稅款一下子就變成了 76 萬美元。

And if god forbid, you are actually going to pay much more in value-added tax than you are collecting, then you can actually claim a tax refund because you are actually made a loss by paying taxes.

而且，如果上帝保佑，你實際繳納的增值稅比你收取的增值稅多得多，那麼你實際上可以申請退稅，因為你實際上因納稅而蒙受了損失。

Now compare that to a foreign car that comes into Germany, let's say Ford that was exported from the United States into Germany.

現在把它與進入德國的外國汽車相比，比方說從美國出口到德國的福特汽車。

Just like any other thing that you buy in Germany, you have to pay a 19% value-added tax.

就像在德國購買其他商品一樣，您必須支付 19% 的增值稅。

So the final price is going to be higher by 19%.

But before that car comes into Germany, there must be paid a 10% tariff for bringing that car into the European Union.

但在這輛汽車進入德國之前，必須繳納 10%的關稅，才能將這輛汽車帶入歐盟。

So 10% tariff and then 19% value-added tax.

是以，關稅為 10%，增值稅為 19%。

Now compare to the BMW whose value-added tax is going to be subsidized by the government of Germany, the 19% tax that you pay by buying that Ford is not going to be subsidized by the German government because it's an American car company, which means that BMW can lower their prices and sell their car at a much lower price than Ford because they know that their value-added tax will be subsidized by the German government, which makes it extremely difficult for American car companies to compete with German cars in Germany or the entire European Union.

這意味著寶馬可以降低價格，以比福特低得多的價格出售他們的汽車，因為他們知道他們的增值稅將得到德國政府的補貼，這使得美國汽車公司很難在德國或整個歐盟與德國汽車競爭。

So even though those 19% VAT tax are not actually tariffs, in the eyes of the current administration, that is unfair trade practices and we are going to charge you an extra 19% for bringing your car into the United States.

是以，儘管 19% 的增值稅實際上並不是關稅，但在現任政府看來，這是不公平的貿易行為，我們將向把汽車運進美國的你額外收取 19% 的稅。

And secondly, because Germany is part of the European Union, there are no taxes between the states, which means that Germany can sell their cars all across the European Union.

其次，由於德國是歐盟的一部分，各州之間沒有稅收，這意味著德國可以在整個歐盟銷售汽車。

So no matter how you look at it, it's impossible for the American cars to compete in the European Union, and if you give it a general look, then you'll find out that the auto industry actually runs on a very slim tiny profit.

是以，無論從哪個角度看，美國汽車都不可能在歐盟市場上競爭，而且如果你對它做一個大致的瞭解，就會發現汽車行業實際上是靠非常微薄的微利在運行。

So even a 10 or 15 or even 20% increase in prices is going to have a substantial impact and those car manufacturers won't be able to sell their cars at a profit, so it makes no sense for them to spend billions of dollars to build those plants and ship those cars across the ocean only to find themselves to make a huge loss.

是以，即使價格上漲 10%、15%，甚至 20%，也會產生巨大影響，這些汽車製造商將無法以盈利的方式銷售汽車，是以，他們花費數十億美元建造這些工廠，將這些汽車運往大洋彼岸，卻發現自己虧損巨大，是毫無意義的。

Have you ever wondered why aren't there like BMW pickup trucks or Mercedes pickup trucks?

你有沒有想過，為什麼沒有寶馬皮卡或奔馳皮卡？

Why don't these car companies manufacture those pickup trucks?

這些汽車公司為什麼不生產這些皮卡呢？

There is a huge demand for pickup trucks in the United States and they can sell plenty of them.

美國對皮卡車的需求量很大，他們可以賣出大量的皮卡車。

But if you look at the pickup trucks in the US, it's mostly like Ford, GM, you also have like Toyotas and Hondas, but it's mostly Ford.

但如果你看看美國的皮卡車，大部分都是福特、通用，也有豐田和本田，但主要還是福特。

If you go back to 1960s, there was a trade war between the European Union and the United States.

追溯到 20 世紀 60 年代，歐盟和美國之間曾爆發過一場貿易戰。

And that's because the European Union suddenly started charging a 25% tariff on all the chicken that comes from the United States into the European Union.

這是因為歐盟突然開始對所有從美國進入歐盟的雞肉徵收 25% 的關稅。