Name: 美聯儲剛剛決定降息--他們沒有告訴你的事 (The Fed Just Decided To Cut Rates - What They’re NOT Telling You)
Uploaded: 2025-08-08T18:32:59.000Z
Duration: 8 min 59 s

轉承詞

I find it really fascinating that the federal reserve refused to lower interest rates because we have massive inflation and inflation is rising.

聯邦儲備局拒絕降低利率，是因為我們面臨著巨大的通貨膨脹，而且通貨膨脹率還在上升。

情態副詞

And then suddenly Donald Trump visits the federal reserve and pushes J-poll to lower down interest rates.

然後，唐納德-特朗普突然造訪美聯儲，推動 J-poll 降低利率。

程度副詞

And then a couple of weeks later, we have disastrous jobs reports that gives the federal reserve a very good reason to lower down interest rates.

幾周後，我們又收到了災難性的就業報告，這為美聯儲降低利率提供了很好的理由。

Donald Trump has been attacking J-poll for the last 6 months, I would say, in order for him to lower down interest rates.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在過去六個月裡一直在攻擊 J-poll，我想說，是為了讓他降低利率。

The federal government is paying almost a trillion dollars in interest rate because it's refinancing its debt.

聯邦政府因債務再融資而支付了近萬億美元的利息。

But if the fed would lower down interest rates, then that will cost the government hundreds of billions of dollars to say the least.

但如果美聯儲降低利率，那麼至少會讓政府損失數千億美元。

But the fed did not do that because it was afraid that inflation is getting out of hand.

但美聯儲並沒有這樣做，因為它擔心通脹失控。

And if you look at the inflation data, it is very clear that inflation is rising.

如果你看看通脹數據，就會非常清楚地看到通脹正在上升。

But after jobs reports, everybody, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Chase, everybody is just expecting that the federal reserve will lower down interest rates in this September.

但在就業報告公佈後，摩根大通、花旗集團、大通銀行等所有人都在期待美聯儲會在今年 9 月降低利率。

Prior to that, all their expectations was that it might happen by the end of the year if inflation is going to cool down because we still don't know the final effects of the tariffs on the consumer prices.

在此之前，他們的所有預期都是，如果通脹降溫，可能會在今年年底發生，因為我們還不知道關稅對消費價格的最終影響。

The fed cannot possibly lower down interest rates just because the white house said so because it will lose all of its credibility.

美聯儲不可能因為白宮的一句話就降低利率，因為這將使其信譽盡失。

The entire bond market of the United States, that's the foundation of the global economy, is based upon the fact that the federal reserve is an independent entity that does not follow the whims and desires of the white house.

美國的整個債券市場是全球經濟的基礎，其基礎是美聯儲是一個獨立的實體，不會隨白宮的喜怒哀樂而變化。

If that's not the case, nobody is going to buy the US debt, nobody is going to invest in a 60 trillion dollar US government or the US debt market.

如果不是這樣，就不會有人購買美債，也不會有人投資 60 萬億美元的美國政府或美國債務市場。

But now they have a very good excuse, a very good reason.

但現在他們有了一個很好的藉口，一個很好的理由。

We won't lower down the interest rates because Trump said so but rather because we have very bad jobs reports and inflation or the economy is tanking into a recession, so we gotta do something.

我們不會因為特朗普的一句話就降低利率，而是因為我們有非常糟糕的就業報告和通貨膨脹，或者經濟正在陷入衰退，所以我們必須做點什麼。

In fact, if you look at the history of the United States or the federal reserve, find out that the main job of the fed has always been stable prices and maximum employment was the responsibility of the government and not the federal reserve.

事實上，如果你回顧一下美國或美聯儲的歷史，就會發現美聯儲的主要工作一直是穩定物價，而最大限度的就業則是政府而非美聯儲的責任。

In fact, if you simply go back to the 1970s, when the United States was facing a stagflation, Paul Walker was elected to become the chairman of the fed and he instantly raised the interest rates to 13 percent back in 1974 to fight inflation finally.

事實上，如果你簡單地追溯到 20 世紀 70 年代，當時美國正面臨滯脹，保羅-沃克當選為美聯儲主席，他在 1974 年立即將利率提高到 13%，以最終對抗通貨膨脹。

But that high interest rate led to some of the highest unemployment in the history of the United States.

但高利率導致了美國曆史上最高的失業率。

The unemployment back in 1970s was much higher than it was at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.

20 世紀 70 年代的失業率遠高於 2008 年金融危機高峰時的失業率。

So, the congress passed a law, they called it Federal Reserve Reform Act in 1977 and decided that it's not enough for the federal reserve to have the responsibility of stable prices but it also should think about maximum employment.

是以，美國國會在 1977 年通過了一項名為《聯邦儲備改革法》的法律，決定聯邦儲備只負責穩定物價是不夠的，還應該考慮最大化就業。

And that's when the terminology of dual mandate actually came from.

這就是雙重任務這一術語的由來。

That from now onwards, the fed should not just focus on stable prices but also to make sure that the government or the economy is at the maximum employment and the economy keeps growing.

從現在起，美聯儲不應只關注穩定物價，還應確保政府或經濟達到最大就業率，經濟保持增長。

And that's the balance that the fed has been trying since then.

從那時起，美聯儲就一直在嘗試這種平衡。

現在，保羅-沃克對此並不在意。

He raised the interest rates after that to almost 20 percent to fight inflation.

此後，他將利率提高到近 20%，以對抗通貨膨脹。

But since then, we had the absolute policy of maintaining the dual mandate.

但從那時起，我們就絕對奉行維持雙重任務的政策。

On one side, maximum employment, on the other side, stable prices.

一邊是最大限度的就業，另一邊是穩定的物價。

And if you actually pay attention on how the federal reserve has been deciding to either increase or lower down interest rates, you will see that the jobs report played the most important role.

而如果你真正關注美聯儲是如何決定加息或降息的，你就會發現就業報告發揮了最重要的作用。

When the economy crashed in 2008, the federal reserve lowered down interest rates to almost 0 percent.

2008 年經濟崩潰時，美聯儲將利率下調至接近 0%。

However, in 2009, they revised the jobs report for March and they realized that it was negative 900 thousand jobs.

然而，2009 年，他們修訂了 3 月份的就業報告，發現就業崗位為負 90 萬個。

And that's when the federal reserve decided that it's not enough to lower down interest rates because we have lowered them down and the employment is not rising and that's when the federal reserve invented quantitative easing and started massively buying securities in the open market.

就在那時，美聯儲認為降低利率是不夠的，因為我們已經降低了利率，但就業率並沒有上升，就在那時，美聯儲發明了量化寬鬆政策，開始在公開市場上大規模購買證券。

To give you a couple more examples, they all started after 2020 because there was a very long period of peace and the federal reserve either kept the interest rates at the bare minimum or it has risen them but that rise wasn't that much.

再舉幾個例子，它們都是在 2020 年之後開始的，因為當時有一段很長的和平時期，美聯儲要麼將利率維持在最低水平，要麼提高了利率，但提高的幅度並不大。

See, if you go back for example in 2020, in March and April, they revised the numbers and they said that actually the real jobs have been negative by 642 thousand and that meant that the federal reserve should have actually kept the interest rates low.

你看，如果你回到 2020 年，比如 3 月和 4 月，他們修改了數據，他們說實際就業崗位實際上是負的，有 64.2 萬個，這意味著美聯儲實際上應該保持低利率。

But because interest rates were already low and the federal reserve was already buying massively securities in the open market, there wasn't much that the federal reserve could do.

但由於當時利率已經很低，聯邦儲備局已經在公開市場上大量購買證券，是以聯邦儲備局能做的並不多。

But here is where the interesting thing actually starts.

但有趣的事情就從這裡開始了。

If you go back to the February of 2020, there was a revision in the jobs, and they said that actually in November and December, we have underestimated the jobs report and we have added an extra 709 thousand jobs.

他們說，實際上在 11 月和 12 月，我們低估了就業報告，我們額外增加了 70.9 萬個就業崗位。

That means that the economy is very strong and it's time maybe to hike the interest rates.

這意味著經濟非常強勁，也許是時候加息了。

So if we got the report by February about December and November of the previous year, so in February, the federal reserve decides to hike the interest rates because the labor market is very strong, although that there were very clear signs that inflation is rising as well.

是以，如果我們在二月份之前得到關於前一年 12 月和 11 月的報告，那麼在二月份，美聯儲決定加息，因為勞動力市場非常強勁，儘管有非常明顯的跡象表明通貨膨脹也在上升。

Now, if you actually move forward with that, you will see another very clear example.

現在，如果你真的這樣做了，你就會看到另一個非常清楚的例子。

In August 2024, when interest rates were 5.5 percent, they have revised the annual jobs reports and realized that they have overestimated the numbers, so they cut the numbers by 818 thousand.

2024 年 8 月，當利率為 5.5%時，他們修訂了年度就業報告，意識到他們高估了數字，是以將數字削減了 81.8 萬。

And that meant that the economy is slowing down, people cannot possibly find jobs.

這意味著經濟放緩，人們不可能找到工作。

And maybe this is the time to lower down interest rates to give the economy that boost and meet the requirement of a dual mandate, not just stable prices, but also maximum employment.

也許現在是降低利率的時候了，以促進經濟發展，滿足雙重任務的要求，不僅要穩定物價，還要最大限度地增加就業。

And that's why right after that report, they lowered down the interest rates from 5.5 percent to 4.5 percent.

這就是為什麼在報告發布後，他們立即將利率從 5.5% 下調至 4.5%。

And now we are pretty much at the exact same scenario that they have revised the data for May and June, and they said that we have actually added or overestimated the numbers by 258 thousand jobs.

現在我們的情況與他們修訂 5 月和 6 月數據時的情況基本相同，他們說我們實際上增加或高估了 25.8 萬個工作崗位。

The real numbers are much lower than that, and the labor market is weakening very strongly.

實際數字遠低於此，勞動力市場正在嚴重疲軟。

So if you actually look at what has been happening over the last couple of decades, you could actually say that the jobs report probably has been the most accurate indicator of the Fed's actions.

是以，如果你實際看看過去幾十年發生的事情，你實際上可以說，就業報告可能一直是美聯儲行動最準確的指標。

If the jobs report weakened, then the federal reserve rises, lowers down interest rates, and vice versa.

如果就業報告疲軟，那麼美聯儲就會加息、降息，反之亦然。

When jobs reports get very strong and inflation high, that's when the federal reserve increases the interest rates.

當就業報告非常強勁、通脹高企時，就是美聯儲提高利率的時候。

Donald Trump has been attacking Jay Paul since he took office, but he made it so clear that he wants lower interest rates that he went to the federal reserve and this is what he said.

唐納德-特朗普自上任以來一直在攻擊傑伊-保羅，但他明確表示希望降低利率，他去找了美聯儲，他是這麼說的。

He doesn't care about the construction in the federal reserve, he doesn't care about anything related to that, all he wants is lower down interest rates.

他不在乎美聯儲的建設，不在乎與此相關的任何事情，他只想降低利率。

But if the chairman of the Fed would have given up to what Trump has said, then nobody would trust the Fed, but now the federal reserve has a very good reason to do that.

但如果美聯儲主席放棄了特朗普所說的話，那麼沒有人會相信美聯儲，但現在美聯儲有了一個非常好的理由。

Yes, in September, most likely, I would assume that the chances that they will lower down interest rates is increasingly high.

是的，很有可能在 9 月份，我認為他們降低利率的可能性越來越大。

And they will say, yes, we have slightly higher inflation, inflation is about 2.8 or 2.9 percent, but we have dual mandates, so we have to lower down interest rates in order to make sure that the jobs market stays strong.

他們會說，是的，我們的通脹率略高，通脹率約為 2.8%或 2.9%，但我們有雙重任務，所以我們必須降低利率，以確保就業市場保持強勁。

So we are going to balance between the maximum employment and stable prices.

是以，我們要在最大限度的就業和穩定物價之間取得平衡。

Even though that I believe that it's still too early to lower down interest rates because inflation must be beaten in the first place, most likely, the federal reserve has already decided based on this data that in September, the rates are going to be cut.

儘管我認為現在降低利率還為時過早，因為首先必須戰勝通脹，但最有可能的是，美聯儲已經根據這些數據決定在 9 月份降低利率。

And if that happens, that means that cheap money is coming again to the stock market, which means that we are going to see a certain stocks to rise dramatically, especially tech stocks.

如果出現這種情況，就意味著廉價資金將再次湧入股市，這意味著我們將看到某些股票大幅上漲，尤其是科技股。

So make sure that you take advantage out of it.

And if you are new to the market, then make sure to check the first link in the description of this video.

如果您是市場新手，請務必查看本視頻描述中的第一個鏈接。

Or if you want to know how exactly I invest and what's my investing strategy, again, you can find all of that by checking the first link in the description of this video.

或者，如果你想知道我到底是如何投資的，我的投資策略是什麼，同樣，你也可以通過查看本視頻描述中的第一個鏈接來了解這一切。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.