Name: "大多數人不知道美元即將發生什麼" (“Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To US DOLLAR”)
Uploaded: 2025-08-04T18:29:16.000Z
Duration: 10 min 49 s

Something strange has happened to the dollar, and it's unlike anything we have ever seen before.

美元發生了一些奇怪的事情，這與我們以前從未見過的情況不同。

Ever since President Trump took office, the world economy is in chaos.

自特朗普總統上任以來，世界經濟一片混亂。

On 1st of February, he announced a 25 percent tariff on everything that comes from Mexico and Canada.

2 月 1 日，他宣佈對來自墨西哥和加拿大的所有商品徵收 25% 的關稅。

On 2nd of April, he announced a universal tariff on any goods that enter the United States and reciprocal tariffs that went as high as 245 percent for some countries.

4 月 2 日，他宣佈對進入美國的任何商品普遍徵收關稅，並對一些國家徵收高達 245% 的互惠關稅。

That chaos spilled into the bone market, and that forced investors to sell their investments fast.

這種混亂蔓延到了骨頭市場，迫使投資者迅速拋售投資。

And now Moody's, the most respected rating agency in the world has downgraded the United States credit score.

現在，世界上最受尊敬的評級機構穆迪（Moody's）下調了美國的信用評級。

That will cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, wiping out any potential profits that the United States would have made out of those tariffs.

這將使美國損失數千億美元，使美國從這些關稅中獲得的任何潛在利潤化為烏有。

It's like when you are running a business and you raise your prices to make more money, and then your landlord triples your rent.

這就好比你在做生意，為了賺更多的錢，你提高了價格，而房東卻將你的房租提高了三倍。

That's just what happened with the US government, and that could have a devastating impact on the United States dollar as the global currency reserve.

美國政府就是這樣做的，這可能會對作為全球貨幣儲備的美元造成毀滅性影響。

Let me ask you, what is the most powerful company in the world?

我問你，世界上最強大的公司是什麼？

Blackrock that controls over 10 trillion dollars under management?

Blackrock 管理著超過 10 萬億美元的資金？

Or maybe wall street which is the most respected bank on wall street?

或者是華爾街最受尊敬的銀行華爾街？

Or how about Apple, a 3 trillion dollar company that shapes the way we live?

那麼，蘋果公司呢？這家市值 3 萬億美元的公司塑造了我們的生活方式。

What if I told you that there is a company that is more powerful than all of these companies combined, and it's called Moody's.

如果我告訴你，有一家公司比所有這些公司加起來還要強大，它就是穆迪公司。

Most people have no idea how truly powerful this company is.

大多數人都不知道這家公司有多麼強大。

This company can single-handedly destroy entire banks and companies, and even in some cases, countries.

這家公司可以一手摧毀整個銀行和公司，甚至在某些情況下摧毀國家。

You see, countries just like people have credit scores.

你看，國家就像人有信用分數一樣。

The higher your credit score, the cheaper for you to borrow money.

But the lower is your credit score, the more you pay to borrow money.

但是，你的信用評分越低，借錢的成本就越高。

If investors believe that a country is reckless with their finances, then their credit scores go down, which means that their interest payments instantly go higher.

如果投資者認為一個國家在財政上不計後果，那麼他們的信用評分就會下降，這意味著他們的利息支出會立即增加。

A good score means lower rates, a higher score means you are going to pay much more.

分數越高，費率越低；分數越低，費率越高。

A 400,000 dollar mortgage can cost an extra 100,000 dollars just because you have a lower credit score.

僅僅因為你的信用評分較低，40 萬美元的抵押貸款就可能多花 10 萬美元。

And that's why you should maintain or try your best to maintain a very good credit score if you want to get as rich as possible.

是以，如果你想盡可能地致富，就應該保持或盡力保持良好的信用記錄。

Remember Silicon Valley bank, one of the largest banks in the United States and probably the largest bank for tech startups in Silicon Valley.

請記住硅谷銀行，它是美國最大的銀行之一，也可能是硅谷最大的科技初創企業銀行。

It had assets worth over 300 billion dollars.

它的資產價值超過 3000 億美元。

And most of those assets were invested in some of the safest assets out there, such as the US government bonds.

而這些資產大多投資於一些最安全的資產，如美國政府債券。

But with a single move, when the Moody's downgraded SVB's credit score, the bank went into bankruptcy in less than 48 hours.

但穆迪公司一舉下調了 SVB 的信用等級，不到 48 小時，該銀行就破產了。

Investors panicked, they rushed to SVB and pulled out their investments, and that led to the crash of one of the largest banks in the United States.

投資者驚慌失措，他們衝向 SVB，撤出他們的投資，這導致了美國最大銀行之一的崩潰。

Mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, which were very toxic products that were filled with risky home loans, were given triple A ratings by Moody's.

抵押貸款支持證券和抵押債務憑證這些充斥著高風險住房貸款的有毒產品，被穆迪評為三A級。

So pension funds, investors, and banks threw trillions of dollars into these very risky assets.

於是，養老基金、投資者和銀行向這些風險極高的資產投入了數萬億美元。

But at the end of the day, when Moody's pulled the plug and triggered and downgraded those assets, investors panicked and instantly started selling these assets, which led to the catastrophe.

但到了最後，當穆迪公司拔掉插頭，觸發並下調這些資產的評級時，投資者驚慌失措，立即開始拋售這些資產，從而導致了這場災難。

It was the main reason why the Lehman Brothers collapsed and the global economy was on the brink of catastrophe just because Moody's downgraded these assets.

正是因為穆迪公司下調了這些資產的評級，才導致雷曼兄弟倒閉，全球經濟瀕臨災難邊緣。

Imagine one company is so powerful that they almost destroyed the entire global financial system just because of a few letters on a rating sheet.

試想，一家公司如此強大，僅僅因為評級表上的幾個字母，就幾乎摧毀了整個全球金融體系。

And now they have turned their attention to the United States.

現在，他們把目光轉向了美國。

And I am afraid to say 37 trillion dollars because maybe by the end of the video, it might be 38 trillion dollars, 40 trillion dollars, god knows how much it's going to be.

我不敢說 37 萬億美元，因為到視頻結束時，可能會是 38 萬億美元、40 萬億美元，天知道會是多少。

And now since Moody's downgraded the US credit score, that means higher debt payments.

現在，由於穆迪公司下調了美國的信用評級，這就意味著要支付更高的債務。

A single percentage increase in payments for the United States means an extra 370 billion dollars in annual payments.

美國的支付額只要增加一個百分點，就意味著每年多支付 3700 億美元。

And as the debt keeps growing, that annual payment is going to keep rising. 37 trillion dollar debt is like 37 million credit cards maxed out at 1 million dollars.

隨著債務的不斷增加，每年的還款額也會不斷增加。37 萬億美元的債務就相當於 3700 萬張信用卡刷爆了 100 萬美元。

Can you even comprehend those kind of numbers?

Most people when they hear these numbers, they do not fully understand what exactly those numbers mean.

大多數人在聽到這些數字時，並不完全明白這些數字究竟意味著什麼。

Here is how Moody's explained it in their own report.

穆迪公司在自己的報告中是這樣解釋的。

Success of US administration and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.

美國政府和國會未能就扭轉年度鉅額財政赤字和利息成本增長趨勢的措施達成一致。

Let's translate that to a human language.

讓我們把它翻譯成人類的語言。

Both Democrats and Republicans have been kicking the can for the last 25 years and they haven't agreed on major policies that could change the trend and start cutting costs.

在過去的 25 年裡，民主黨和共和黨一直在 "踢皮球"，他們沒有就能夠改變趨勢並開始削減成本的重大政策達成一致。

And there is absolutely nothing that the US government can do right now in the short run to fix the problem.

而美國政府目前在短期內完全無法解決這個問題。

It puts at risk its status as the superpower.

If it continues borrowing, its debt will keep growing until it buries it.

如果繼續借債，其債務將不斷增加，直至埋葬它。

So what exactly the United States can do right now or supposed to do?

那麼，美國現在能做或應該做什麼呢？

In December 2021, Biden raised the debt ceiling by 2.5 trillion dollars.

2021 年 12 月，拜登將債務上限提高了 2.5 萬億美元。

In June 2023, they supposed to raise the debt ceiling again by trillions of dollars, but then they decided that they will delay it.

2023 年 6 月，他們本應再次提高債務上限，增加數萬億美元，但後來他們決定延後。

And now Trump has no other option but to increase the debt ceiling again by trillions of dollars.

現在，特朗普別無選擇，只能再次提高債務上限，增加數萬億美元。

Republicans are not going to agree on an increase of debt ceiling unless they will approve a 4.5 trillion dollar in tax cuts.

共和黨人不會同意提高債務上限，除非他們同意減稅 4.5 萬億美元。

Let's take that and translate it to a human language.

More borrowing, more debt, and more interest payments.

更多的借款、更多的債務和更多的利息支出。

By the time Trump is going to leave office, the total debt of the United States will be around 48 trillion dollars.

到特朗普卸任時，美國的債務總額將達到 48 萬億美元左右。

And if we assume that the GDP of the United States will increase to 33 trillion dollars, then the US debt to GDP ratio is going to be around 145 percent.

如果我們假設美國的 GDP 將增至 33 萬億美元，那麼美國的債務與 GDP 之比將達到 145%左右。

And now since Moody's have downgraded the United States credit score, it means it probably gonna grow to 50 trillion dollars and a debt to GDP ratio of around 150 percent.

現在，穆迪下調了美國的信用評級，這意味著美國的債務可能會增長到 50 萬億美元，債務與 GDP 的比率將達到 150%左右。

That's like making 100 thousand dollars but having credit card debts at 150 thousand dollars.

這就好比賺了 10 萬美元，卻欠下了 15 萬美元的信用卡債務。

And that does includes your mortgage and your car payments.

And that is the biggest threat that the US dollar is facing as the global currency reserve.

而這正是美元作為全球儲備貨幣所面臨的最大威脅。

Despite all the attempts to cut spending, 2025 is going to be a financial disaster for the United States.

儘管美國竭力削減開支，但 2025 年仍將是美國的財政災難。

Now, the budget for the United States is 7.3 trillion dollars for this year.

現在，美國今年的預算是 7.3 萬億美元。

And the United States will make 5.2 trillion dollars, which creates a shortfall of over 2 trillion dollars.

而美國將賺取 5.2 萬億美元，這將造成超過 2 萬億美元的資金缺口。

Can you imagine for a moment that this year alone, the United States will borrow an extra 2.1 trillion dollars just to fill the budget.

你能想象一下，僅今年一年，美國就將額外借貸 2.1 萬億美元來填補預算。

If this trend continues for the entire presidency of Trump just like it did during Biden, then the United States is on a crash course.

如果特朗普整個總統任期內都像拜登時期那樣持續這種趨勢，那麼美國就會走向崩潰。

Ever since 1945, whenever there has been any kind of crisis, investors would rush to the United States and they would invest their money in the US government bonds since they were considered as safe as gold if not safer than gold.

自 1945 年以來，每當發生任何形式的危機，投資者都會湧向美國，將資金投資於美國政府債券，因為他們認為美國政府債券與黃金一樣安全，甚至比黃金更安全。

And that's why during any crisis, gold prices rise.

這就是為什麼在任何危機期間，黃金價格都會上漲。

That's exactly what's happening right now.

If you check gold prices for the past couple of years, they have been rising since there have been so much chaos in the world.

如果你查看一下過去幾年的黃金價格，就會發現由於世界上發生瞭如此多的混亂，黃金價格一直在上漲。

And secondly, bond yields on the US government bonds start to fall down.

其次，美國政府債券的收益率開始下降。

But that did not happen during the last crisis on April 2 when the United States announced universal tariffs on all the world.

但在 4 月 2 日美國宣佈對全世界徵收普遍關稅的上一次危機中，這種情況並沒有發生。

In fact, investors started massively selling US government bonds.

事實上，投資者開始大規模拋售美國政府債券。

Yields represent the interest rate that the United States has to offer to borrow money.

So when the demand rises, yields naturally drop.

是以，當需求上升時，收益率自然會下降。

The government has to offer very little when everybody wants to lend money.

當每個人都想借錢時，政府必須提供的很少。

If everyone wants to lend you money, then you have to offer very little in exchange.

如果每個人都想借錢給你，那麼你必須提供很少的交換條件。

But if nobody wants to lend you money, then you have to offer a much higher reward for anyone to loan you even a small loan.

但是，如果沒有人願意借錢給你，那麼你就必須提供更高的回報，讓別人借錢給你，哪怕是小額貸款。

So on April 2 when the United States announced universal tariffs on everybody, the absolute opposite has happened.

是以，當美國在 4 月 2 日宣佈對所有人普遍徵收關稅時，情況卻完全相反。

Yields rates started to rise instead of going down.

It's as if your house was the safest place during any crisis.

就好像在任何危機中，你家都是最安全的地方。

But during the last tornado, instead of people running to your house, they started running away.

但在上一次龍捲風中，人們不是跑向你家，而是開始逃跑。

And that's a huge danger for the US dollar.

這對美元來說是一個巨大的危險。

Because the United States does not borrow millions of dollars, it borrows trillions of dollars.

因為美國借的不是數百萬美元，而是數萬億美元。

And a downgrade by Moody's means that the cost of borrowing from now onwards is going to exponentially rise.

穆迪下調評級意味著從現在起借貸成本將成倍增加。

And that could also mean that the era of cheap money is over forever for the United States.

這也可能意味著美國的廉價貨幣時代永遠結束了。

No longer low interest rates for the United States.

And that means that everything will become more expensive.

這意味著一切都將變得更加昂貴。

Groceries, mortgages, cars, whatever you buy is simply going to become much more expensive, which means that you either can simply sit down and watch how inflation is going to eat away your money or you can do what rich people do during these times, invest.

雜貨、抵押貸款、汽車，無論你買什麼，都會變得更加昂貴，這意味著你要麼只能坐視通貨膨脹如何吞噬你的錢，要麼就像富人在這種時候所做的那樣，進行投資。

The greatest wealth transformation never happened during the good times, they always happened during crises.

最大的財富轉變從來都不是發生在順境中，而總是發生在危機中。

In 2008, when everything started to crash, smart investors jumped in and bought some really great assets at a fraction of the price.

2008 年，當一切都開始崩潰時，聰明的投資者跳了出來，以極低的價格買下了一些非常好的資產。

In 2020, when everything started to crash, really smart investors were patient and they made a lot of money during their recovery.

2020 年，當一切都開始崩潰時，真正聰明的投資者很有耐心，他們在復甦期間賺了很多錢。

But people have all of these questions in their mind because they are confused about investing.

但人們之所以有這些疑問，是因為他們對投資感到困惑。