Name: 住房市場開始出現裂痕 (The Housing Market Is Beginning To Crack)
Uploaded: 2025-08-03T18:01:59.000Z
Duration: 15 min 48 s

基礎被動語態

情態副詞

Everybody is talking about lowering interest rates so that mortgage rates will fall down and people will finally be able to buy houses.

每個人都在談論降低利率，這樣抵押貸款利率就會下降，人們終於可以買房了。

Other people blame huge corporations such as blackrock that they are massively buying houses.

其他人則指責 Blackrock 等巨頭公司大肆購房。

On the other side, you have people blaming that there is a huge shortage of houses in the market, so let's deregulate the market, more houses will be built, and prices will fall down.

另一方面，有人指責市場上房屋嚴重短缺，是以讓我們放鬆對市場的管制，建造更多的房屋，房價就會下降。

All of these solutions are temporary, they will not fix the problem.

所有這些解決方案都是暫時的，不能解決問題。

The real fix is what the federal reserve just said in the last press conference.

真正的解決辦法是美聯儲在上次新聞發佈會上所說的。

We don't set mortgage rates at the fed, we set an overnight rate, and the rates that go into mortgages are longer term.

我們不在美聯儲設定抵押貸款利率，我們設定的是隔夜利率，而抵押貸款利率是長期利率。

I think the best thing that we can do for housing is to have 2% inflation and maximum employment, and that's what we can contribute to housing.

我認為，我們能為住房做的最好的事情，就是讓通脹率達到 2%，就業率達到最高，這就是我們能為住房做出的貢獻。

Unless the federal reserve will not bring down inflation to 2%, house prices will not be affordable.

除非美聯儲不把通脹率降到 2%，否則房價是買不起的。

It doesn't matter whether you are buying that house with a pile of cash or you are getting a mortgage.

無論您是用現金買房還是按揭買房，這都無關緊要。

You see, if you just go back to the early 2000s, mortgage rates were as much as they are today.

你看，如果你回到 2000 年代初，抵押貸款利率就和現在一樣高。

But buying a house back in the days was not a problem because the ratio between household income and the median house price was 3 to 1.

但在過去，買房不是問題，因為家庭收入與房價中位數的比例是 3:1。

Today, it's 6 to 1, which means that the exact same house has doubled in prices but your household income hasn't grown much.

如今，這個比例是 6:1，這意味著同樣的房子價格翻了一番，但你的家庭收入卻沒有多少增長。

Yes, back in the early 2000s, you had pretty similar mortgage rates.

是的，在 2000 年代初，你們的抵押貸款利率非常接近。

However, house prices were not so high and most people could still buy a house.

然而，當時的房價並不高，大多數人還是可以買到房子的。

Even if they did not get a mortgage, they could save for that house.

即使沒有獲得抵押貸款，他們也可以為買房存錢。

So the real question is that why exactly house prices exploded so much over the last 25 years?

是以，真正的問題是，在過去的 25 年裡，房價究竟為何會大幅上漲？

And that's because the federal reserve has been systematically destroying the housing market by intervening.

這是因為聯邦儲備局一直在通過干預有計劃地破壞房地產市場。

You see, when you just go and buy a house and you get a mortgage, your mortgage is often turned into a mortgage-backed security and sold in the MBS market.

你看，當你剛買了房子並獲得抵押貸款時，你的抵押貸款通常會變成抵押擔保證券，並在 MBS 市場上出售。

So you have a bank such as Chase that provides a thousand mortgages.

是以，像大通這樣的銀行可以提供上千種抵押貸款。

It will take all the thousand mortgages and will sell them to investors as one giant security called mortgage-backed security.

它將把所有上千份抵押貸款作為一種巨型證券出售給投資者，這種證券被稱為抵押貸款支持證券。

And usually, investors would buy these securities because they are very safe investments.

通常，投資者會購買這些證券，因為它們是非常安全的投資。

If you compare mortgage-backed securities to the stock market, then mortgage-backed securities are much more secure.

如果將抵押支持證券與股票市場相比，那麼抵押支持證券要安全得多。

Of course, me and you, we go to the stock market because we can get a much higher return.

當然，我和你都會去股市，因為我們可以獲得更高的回報。

But when you have giant financial institutions, they don't have the opportunity to take that kind of a risk like I can take and you can take, so they have to make sure that a portion of their investments is being invested in the super safe investments such as treasure bills and mortgage-backed securities.

但是，當你擁有巨型金融機構時，它們就沒有機會像我和你一樣承擔這種風險，所以它們必須確保其投資的一部分被投資於超級安全的投資項目，如寶藏票據和抵押貸款支持證券。

And that's why they would always invest in mortgage-backed securities.

這就是為什麼他們總是投資於抵押貸款支持證券。

And who is going to determine what is going to be the yield on these mortgage-backed securities?

誰來決定這些抵押貸款支持證券的收益率？

However, the federal reserve since the 2008 financial crisis has been intervening into this market and artificially buying the mortgage-backed securities to bring down yields on these mortgage-backed securities that made them unattractive for investors.

然而，自 2008 年金融危機以來，美聯儲一直在干預這一市場，人為地購買抵押貸款支持證券，以降低這些抵押貸款支持證券的收益率，使其對投資者失去吸引力。

And now it has maximized its balance sheet and the market is broken.

而現在，它已經最大限度地利用了自己的資產負債表，市場被打破了。

Federal reserve now has around 2.1 trillion dollars at its balance sheet of mortgage-backed securities. 1.4 trillion dollars were purchased before 2020 and the yields on them are 2.5% to 4.5%.

美聯儲目前的資產負債表上約有 2.1 萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。其中 1.4 萬億美元是在 2020 年前購買的，其收益率為 2.5% 至 4.5%。

Compare this yield to the yields that we have right now in the market, which are 5 to 6%.

將這一收益率與目前市場上 5% 至 6% 的收益率進行比較。

So you have an investor who looks at these two yields.

是以，投資者需要關注這兩個收益率。

Will they buy the exact same mortgage-backed securities that provide you with 4% interest rate or 6% interest rate?

他們會購買為您提供 4% 或 6% 利率的完全相同的抵押支持證券嗎？

Of course, they will choose the other one.

但到了 2020 年，情況變得更糟了。

It purchased around 1.7 trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities.

它購買了約 1.7 萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。

The securities that have been purchased in 2020 had a yield of 1.5% to 2%.

2020 年購買的證券收益率為 1.5% 至 2%。

And in 2021, they have an average yield of 2.5%.

而在 2021 年，它們的平均收益率為 2.5%。

Which means that the federal reserve right now is being stuck with trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities that have super low yields and nobody is going to buy them because the current yields in the market have 5 to 6%, sometimes even higher than that.

這意味著，美聯儲現在正被數萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券所困，這些證券的收益率超低，卻沒有人願意購買，因為目前市場上的收益率高達5%至6%，有時甚至比這還高。

So how do you empty your balance sheet as the federal reserve when you have so many securities that nobody in the market wants to buy?

那麼，作為聯邦儲備局，當你擁有如此多市場上無人問津的證券時，如何清空你的資產負債表呢？

Yes, you might be able to sell a portion of these securities that have a yield of 4.5% when there are some investors in the market.

是的，當市場上有一些投資者時，你或許可以出售一部分收益率為 4.5%的證券。

However, the vast majority of these securities are absolutely worthless securities, and if you dump all of them into the market, then you are going to increase the yields to levels where mortgage rates will skyrocket tomorrow.

然而，這些證券中的絕大多數絕對是毫無價值的證券，如果你把它們全部拋入市場，那麼你就會把收益率提高到抵押貸款利率明天就會暴漲的水準。

The only way that it can get rid of them is by letting them to mature.

唯一的辦法就是讓它們成熟起來。

So over the last 3 years, around 700 billion dollars worth of these MBS has matured.

是以，在過去 3 年中，約有價值 7000 億美元的這些 MBS 到期。

Because people are paying off their mortgages.

The money goes directly into the hands of the federal reserve, and that's how some of these mortgage-backed securities are maturing.

這些錢直接進入美聯儲手中，一些抵押貸款支持證券就是這樣到期的。

Secondly, people are selling their houses for various reasons.

其次，人們出於各種原因出售房屋。

Maybe people want to move to a different state, to a different city, maybe they don't like their houses, maybe this house is too expensive for them, maybe they got a promotion and they want a better house, so let's get rid of this house and buy a different house that is bigger, that is better, that's much more expensive.

也許人們想搬到不同的州、不同的城市，也許他們不喜歡自己的房子，也許這套房子對他們來說太貴了，也許他們升職了，想要一套更好的房子，所以我們把這套房子賣掉，買一套更大、更好、更貴的房子。

So when you sell your house, you pay off your mortgage, and that mortgage has been matured in the hands of the federal reserve.

是以，當你賣掉房子，還清抵押貸款時，抵押貸款已經在美聯儲手中到期。

Or maybe other people are simply defaulting on their houses.

You cannot make your mortgage payments, the bank comes, takes your house, sells it, and gives the money to the federal reserve.

你還不起房貸，銀行就會來收走你的房子，賣掉，然後把錢交給聯邦儲備局。

And that's how 700 billion dollars of these securities have already matured.

就這樣，7000 億美元的證券已經到期。

But around 2.1 trillion dollars is still at the disposal of the fed and it cannot possibly sell them because the new mortgage-backed securities provide you with a 6 percent yield.

但大約 2.1 萬億美元仍由美聯儲支配，美聯儲不可能出售它們，因為新的抵押貸款支持證券能為你提供 6% 的收益率。

So the real question is that how do we fix this?

是以，真正的問題是，我們該如何解決這個問題？

If we bring down inflation to about 2 percent, then mortgage-backed securities that provide you with an interest rate or a yield of more than 2 percent suddenly becomes attractive.

如果我們把通脹率降到 2% 左右，那麼利率或收益率超過 2% 的抵押貸款支持證券就會突然變得很有吸引力。

Yes, maybe not all of the mortgage-backed securities will be sold to the investors but all of them that provide you with 2.5 percent up to 4 percent of yield can be sold to investors.

是的，也許不是所有的抵押貸款支持證券都能賣給投資者，但所有能提供 2.5% 至 4% 收益率的抵押貸款支持證券都能賣給投資者。

So the real question is that how are we going to the inflation?

是以，真正的問題是，我們如何應對通貨膨脹？

You see, there was already a period in the history of the United States where inflation got entirely out of control.

要知道，美國曆史上已經有一段時期通貨膨脹完全失控了。

Inflation back in the days got out of control and it reached 13.5 percent.

當年的通貨膨脹率失控，達到了 13.5%。

So if you think today's inflation is so high, then you don't know what 13.5 percent is.

所以，如果你認為今天的通脹率很高，那你就不知道 13.5% 是什麼概念。

But if you want to know the truth, inflation in the last couple of years has been as high as this inflation but you simply don't know about it.

但如果你想知道真相，過去幾年的通脹率與這次通脹率一樣高，但你根本不知道。

Because if you are going to be honest with yourself, then you have to understand that the way we measure inflation over the last 25 or 40 years has dramatically changed.

因為如果你要對自己誠實，那麼你就必須明白，在過去的 25 年或 40 年裡，我們衡量通貨膨脹的方式已經發生了巨大的變化。

So we use different metrics, we use different methods.

是以，我們使用不同的衡量標準和方法。

So if we use the exact same measures today, the way we calculated inflation back in the 1980s, the real inflation today wouldn't be 2.7 like the last report says, but it would be something between 6 to 7 percent.

是以，如果我們今天使用與上世紀 80 年代計算通貨膨脹完全相同的方法，那麼今天的實際通貨膨脹率就不會像上一份報告所說的那樣是 2.7%，而會在 6% 到 7% 之間。

And inflation of 2022 wouldn't be like 9 percent like it has been, but it would be like 15 percent.

2022 年的通脹率不會像現在一樣達到 9%，而是會達到 15%。

I have explained in one of the previous videos how we measure inflation, but let me give you just one example to illustrate the point.

我在之前的一個視頻中解釋過我們如何衡量通貨膨脹，但讓我僅舉一個例子來說明這一點。

Back in the 1980s, we used to include house prices within the inflation report, but we no longer do that, we simply created a different measurement in order to lower down that number.

上世紀八十年代，我們曾將房價納入通脹報告，但現在我們不再這麼做了，我們只是創造了一個不同的衡量標準，以降低這一數字。

But that's a story for another video, you can literally just go and watch the video I recorded, it's literally a 40-minute video where I explain every single time we changed how we measure inflation and why inflation today is not actually 2 to 3 percent, but it's much higher than that.

但這是另一個視頻的故事，你可以去看我錄製的視頻，那是一個長達 40 分鐘的視頻，我在視頻中解釋了每一次我們改變衡量通脹的方式，以及為什麼今天的通脹率實際上不是 2%到 3%，而是遠遠高於這個數字。

What do you think happened to the mortgage rate?

您認為抵押貸款利率發生了什麼變化？

Mortgage rates have skyrocketed to over 18 percent.

抵押貸款利率已飆升至 18% 以上。

We cannot possibly have lower mortgage rates than inflation because banks are providing these mortgages.

我們的抵押貸款利率不可能低於通貨膨脹率，因為銀行正在提供這些抵押貸款。

They are taking money from people who have money and lending it to people who don't have money.

他們從有錢人那裡拿錢，再借給沒錢的人。

So inflation is 13.5 percent, then the banks have provided to investors a much higher interest rate in order to attract them to invest in the banks and keep their money in those huge banks so that these banks can now provide the mortgages to people who need the money to buy those houses.

是以，通脹率為 13.5%，那麼銀行就向投資者提供了更高的利率，以吸引他們向銀行投資，並將他們的錢留在這些大銀行裡，這樣這些銀行現在就可以向需要錢買房的人提供抵押貸款。

So you had super high interest rates and super high rates back in the days.

所以，你們當年的利率和費率都超高。

So the government of the United States decides to hire somebody whose name is Paul Walker who is going to tackle inflation and fix the inflation in the United States.

於是，美國政府決定僱用一個名叫保羅-沃克的人，由他來解決美國的通貨膨脹問題。

He becomes the chairman of the Fed and he realizes that, I don't care about anything, all I want is to fix inflation in the US because if we don't fix inflation, mortgage rates will never come down.

他成為美聯儲主席後意識到，我什麼都不在乎，我只想解決美國的通脹問題，因為如果我們不解決通脹問題，抵押貸款利率就永遠不會下降。

Like people won't be able to buy houses, especially those who want to buy houses with a mortgage.

就像人們無法買房一樣，尤其是那些想通過抵押貸款買房的人。

So he becomes the chairman of the Fed and he hikes the interest rates first to about 18 to 19 percent.

於是，他成為美聯儲主席，首先將利率提高到 18% 至 19%。

At their peak, they were even higher than 19 percent.

So if you think today's 4.5 percent interest rates are high, think about the interest rates back in the 1980s.

是以，如果您認為今天 4.5% 的利率很高，那麼請想想 20 世紀 80 年代的利率。

I think at their it was about 19.5 percent.

He got a lot of criticism from the white house, but he didn't care.

白宮對他的責備很多，但他並不在乎。

He understood that the only way to fix this problem and bring down inflation to 2 percent so that mortgages will come down is by tackling inflation.

他明白，要解決這個問題，將通脹率降至 2%，從而降低抵押貸款，唯一的辦法就是解決通脹問題。

And within a couple of years, the interest rate or the inflation has come down to about 2 percent.

幾年內，利率或通脹率已降至約 2%。

Look at the mortgage rates, the same thing happens, they come down dramatically after that.

看看抵押貸款利率，同樣的情況也會發生，之後利率就會大幅下降。

So if it wasn't for the high interest rates to crush the entire economy, mortgage rates wouldn't come down at all.

是以，如果不是高利率壓垮了整個經濟，抵押貸款利率根本不會下降。

Yes, high interest rates back in the 1980s literally caused a recession, and unemployment has risen to over 10 percent.

是的，20 世紀 80 年代的高利率確實造成了經濟衰退，失業率上升到 10% 以上。

And that is even higher than the greatest crisis in modern American history at about 9.9 percent.

而這一比例甚至高於美國現代史上最嚴重的危機（約 9.9%）。

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住房市場開始出現裂痕 (The Housing Market Is Beginning To Crack)

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crisis