Name: 我分析了 100 年的黃金價格，這就是我的發現 (I Analysed 100 Years of Gold Prices, This Is What I Found)
Uploaded: 2025-07-18T19:05:39.000Z
Duration: 16 min 19 s

There is something strange happening with gold prices.

金價正在發生一些奇怪的事情。

現在進行式

金價上漲的速度比以往任何時候都快。

Over the last 12 months alone, they have risen by 41 percent.

僅在過去的 12 個月裡，就增長了 41%。

That is something unheard of for gold prices.

In fact, the current monetary policy is emphasizing the fact that gold price is supposed to fall down since the federal reserve is shrinking its balance sheet.

事實上，當前的貨幣政策正在強調，由於美聯儲正在縮減其資產負債表，金價理應下跌。

So I tried to dig down into this topic and figure out what exactly is happening with gold prices.

是以，我試圖深入探討這個話題，弄清楚金價究竟發生了什麼。

Why are they rising so fast at levels that we haven't seen in a long time?

為什麼它們的上升速度如此之快，達到了我們許久未見的水準？

Or it's finally time for gold prices to collapse and fall down?

還是金價終於到了崩盤下跌的時候？

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it. 25 years ago, gold prices were 279 dollars, and today they are around 3500 dollars.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。25 年前，黃金價格為 279 美元，而現在則在 3500 美元左右。

That is almost an increase of a thousand and a hundred and twenty percent.

這幾乎增加了一千零二十個百分點。

If you look at it, it seems like gold has been some of the best investments of the last 25 years.

如果你仔細觀察，黃金似乎是過去 25 年裡最好的投資之一。

Imagine you have two people, one person buys gold with a hundred thousand dollars, and the second person keeps it in the bank. 25 years later, this guy is sitting on a portfolio of a million dollars, while the second guy can barely buy anything with that hundred thousand dollars.

試想有兩個人，一個人用十萬美元買黃金，另一個人把錢存在銀行裡。25 年後，這個人坐擁一百萬美元的投資組合，而第二個人用那十萬美元幾乎買不到任何東西。

You could have bought a really decent house with a hundred thousand dollars 25 years ago.

25 年前，你花十萬美元就能買到一棟真正像樣的房子。

All you can hope for is a down payment for a decent house.

你所能指望的就是付個首付，買套像樣的房子。

But gold prices shouldn't rise at all, because gold is not the kind of asset that rises in value.

但金價根本不應該上漲，因為黃金不是那種會升值的資產。

You see, we have two types of assets in the market.

你看，我們市場上有兩類資產。

We have active assets, and then we have passive assets.

我們有主動資產，也有被動資產。

An active asset is the kind of asset that produces something over time.

活躍資產是指隨著時間的推移會產生某種結果的資產。

Now, a coffee shop doesn't sound as exciting as gold, because it's simply producing coffee, but it's producing something.

現在，咖啡店聽起來不像黃金那麼令人興奮，因為它只是生產咖啡，但它也在生產一些東西。

It is filling the demand in the market, but producing a hundred coffees a day, a thousand coffees a day, and it's making people's lives better.

它滿足了市場的需求，但每天生產 100 種咖啡、1000 種咖啡，讓人們的生活更加美好。

It is giving value to people, which means that it is an active asset.

它為人們帶來價值，這意味著它是一種活躍的資產。

And active assets over the last 25 years have done much better than gold.

而在過去的 25 年裡，活躍資產的表現要比黃金好得多。

Apple, for example, it's impossible to imagine our life without apple today.

比如蘋果，今天我們已經無法想象沒有蘋果的生活。

Can you imagine your life without smartphones, macbooks, ipads, app store, and apple music?

你能想象沒有智能手機、蘋果電腦、iPad、應用商店和蘋果音樂的生活嗎？

For most people, they became the fundamental part of their lives.

對大多數人來說，它們已成為生活的基本組成部分。

And apple stock over the last or the same period of gold has grown by 32 thousand percentages, which makes it a far better investment than gold.

而蘋果股票在過去或同期的黃金漲幅為 3.2 萬個百分點，這使得蘋果股票成為比黃金更好的投資品。

Amazon is another example, but they have exceeded anybody's expectations by growing by 300 thousand percentages.

亞馬遜也是一個例子，但他們的增長速度超出了所有人的預期，達到了 30 萬分之一。

Just imagine a thousand-dollar investment into Amazon 25 years ago.

試想一下，25 年前向亞馬遜投資一千美元的情景。

That thousand dollars probably today would worth over a million dollars.

這一千美元今天可能價值超過一百萬美元。

That's probably one of the greatest investments you can possibly imagine.

這可能是你能想象到的最偉大的投資之一。

But Amazon has done something that most people cannot possibly do.

但亞馬遜做了一件大多數人不可能做到的事。

This private company suddenly owns dozens of huge planes, they own thousands of vans, and they made overnight delivery possible, something that was literally impossible even to imagine 25 years ago.

這傢俬營公司突然擁有了數十架巨型飛機、數千輛貨車，使隔夜送貨成為可能，而這在 25 年前簡直連想都不敢想。

Which is why these assets grow tremendously fast, since they are producing real value to the market.

這就是為什麼這些資產增長迅速的原因，因為它們為市場帶來了真正的價值。

However, when we look at a passive asset such as gold, it produces nothing.

然而，當我們看到黃金這種被動資產時，它卻什麼也不產生。

Gold is sitting there in the corner and it shines.

金子就放在角落裡，閃閃發光。

That is all that gold can do, nothing more than that.

這就是黃金所能做的一切，僅此而已。

Which means that it is not consistently producing any kind of value for it to grow in value.

這意味著，它並沒有持續產生任何價值，從而使其價值增長。

Which means that given the circumstances, the gold that you had for example 20 years ago is the exact same gold that you have today.

也就是說，在這種情況下，20 年前的黃金和今天的黃金完全一樣。

It didn't multiply, it didn't grow, that gold didn't make more gold.

它沒有繁殖，沒有成長，金子也沒有製造出更多的金子。

In fact, the supply of gold rises by 1.5 percent annually, which means that it is a very rare resource.

事實上，黃金的供應量每年增加 1.5%，這意味著黃金是一種非常稀有的資源。

And that's exactly what makes it more valuable.

That's exactly why gold preserved its value over the last thousands of years.

這也正是黃金在過去數千年中得以保值的原因。

If you pay a close attention to the price of gold, you will see a very clear pattern.

如果你密切關注黃金價格，就會發現一個非常明顯的規律。

Back in 1970, the price of gold was 34 dollars.

This is the kind of price that people cannot possibly imagine.

If gold prices today would be 34 dollars, most of you would rush to buy all the gold in the world.

如果今天的金價是 34 美元，你們中的大多數人都會搶著買下世界上所有的黃金。

But we no longer gonna have those kind of prices.

但我們再也不會有這樣的價格了。

But what is interesting here is that there are sudden spikes in the history of price of gold.

但有趣的是，黃金價格在歷史上會突然飆升。

For example, this is the first spike when gold prices tripled or grew like 5 times in a very short period of time.

例如，這是金價第一次飆升，在很短的時間內增長了三倍或五倍。

And that's because the United States untouched the dollar from gold.

這是因為美國沒有從黃金中提取美元。

Back in the 1970s and 80s, when the United States was going through some of the highest inflation in its history, gold prices rose again.

上世紀七八十年代，美國經歷了歷史上最嚴重的通貨膨脹，金價再次上漲。

When the dollar loses its value, gold prices rise because in relation to the dollar, gold has actually grown, since gold is limited in supply, but the dollar can be printed by the Federal Reserve of the United States.

當美元貶值時，黃金價格上漲，因為相對於美元而言，黃金實際上是增長的，因為黃金的供應是有限的，但美元可以由美國聯邦儲備局印製。

And then there is a very long period of time when the United States was the only dominant power in the world.

還有很長一段時間，美國是世界上唯一的霸主。

Nobody could challenge the United States.

Which means that now dollar is as valuable as gold, which is why gold prices began to fall after that.

這意味著現在美元和黃金一樣值錢，這也是金價在那之後開始下跌的原因。

不過，你又會看到兩個主要的峰值。

The first spike was in 2012 and 2013 when it reached all-time high and the second spike was in 2020.

第一次高峰出現在 2012 年和 2013 年，達到歷史最高點，第二次高峰出現在 2020 年。

So historically, by looking at this graph, you see that gold has been some of the best investments somebody could possibly make.

是以，從歷史上看，通過觀察這張圖，你會發現黃金是人們可能做出的最好的投資之一。

It has grown by 10,000% over this period of time.

And because the United States is the largest holder of gold in the world, I guess nobody made from the rise of price of gold more than the government of the United States that holds so much gold in the world that probably that is literally a third of the global supply of gold.

由於美國是世界上最大的黃金持有國，我想沒有人比美國政府更能從黃金價格上漲中獲利，因為美國政府持有世界上如此多的黃金，可能佔全球黃金供應量的三分之一。

Anyways, what's interesting here is that something fundamentally changed in early 2000s that gold prices after that skyrocketed.

總之，有趣的是，本世紀初發生了一些根本性的變化，此後金價一路飆升。

Yes, gold prices spiked prior to that, but this growth is nothing compared to the growth that we see over here.

是的，在此之前金價飆升，但與我們在這裡看到的增長相比，這種增長根本不算什麼。

And to understand what's happening over here is that you simply have to take a look at the balance sheet of the Fed.

要了解這裡發生了什麼，你只需看看美聯儲的資產負債表。

Now, a lot of people don't understand the importance of the 2008 financial crisis.

現在，很多人都不瞭解 2008 年金融危機的重要性。

To a lot of people, it simply was just another crisis.

對很多人來說，這不過是另一場危機而已。

However, the 2008 financial crisis was so fundamentally important that it restructured the entire financial system of the world.

然而，2008 年的金融危機是如此重要，以至於重構了整個世界金融體系。

It was to the magnitude of detaching the dollar from the gold.

其程度相當於將美元與黃金分離。

Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve would not intervene in the economy by printing so much money.

在 2008 年金融危機之前，美聯儲不會通過大量印鈔來干預經濟。

And that's why you see that the balance sheet of the Fed was very stable at around 800 billion dollars.

這就是為什麼你會看到美聯儲的資產負債表非常穩定，約為 8000 億美元。

It was probably 770 billion dollars, slightly less than that, but it doesn't matter.

大概是 7700 億美元，略低於這個數字，但這並不重要。

And every time we had high inflation, the Federal Reserve would step in, hike interest rates to bring down inflation.

每當我們出現高通脹時，美聯儲就會介入，提高利率以降低通脹。

It wouldn't instantly work, but that was basically the main job of the Fed.

這不會立即奏效，但這基本上是美聯儲的主要工作。

Yes, it also wanted to achieve maximum employment.

是的，它也希望實現最大限度的就業。

But that second goal was the second goal.

但第二個進球就是第二個進球。

The primary goal is that we are going to keep inflation or interest rates as high as possible to bring down inflation.

我們的首要目標是儘可能保持高通脹或高利率，以降低通脹。

And then 2008 happens, and the entire economy crashes.

然後 2008 年發生了，整個經濟崩潰了。

And people freaked out to the point that, literally, back in the days, everybody thought that this is the end of the United States.

人們嚇壞了，以至於在過去的日子裡，每個人都認為這是美國的末日。

Because you saw house prices going down and down and down.

And if you would do the basic math, you would realize that it's simply mathematically about time that house prices would go to zero, and then they would go to negative, and the US GDP would literally just go to zero.

如果你會做基本的數學運算，你就會意識到，從數學上講，房價歸零的時間已經到了，然後房價會變成負數，而美國的國內生產總值也會真的歸零。

That was basically the basic understanding.

So the Federal Reserve takes a very important decision to start printing money to save the  economy, and the balance sheet of the Fed triples overnight.

是以，美聯儲做出了一個非常重要的決定，開始印鈔拯救經濟，美聯儲的資產負債表一夜之間增加了兩倍。

In a couple of years, the balance sheet of the Fed simply triples.

再過幾年，美聯儲的資產負債表就會增加兩倍。

Because the kind of money that the Fed injected into the economy, that's something that most people at that time could not even comprehend.

因為美聯儲向經濟注入的資金，是當時大多數人都無法理解的。

And that's why you see a very close correlation between the Federal Reserve increasing its balance sheet and gold prices rising dramatically.

這就是為什麼你會看到美聯儲增加資產負債表與金價大幅上漲之間有著非常密切的關聯。

The Fed kept rising its balance sheet up until 2014.

直到 2014 年，美聯儲一直在增加資產負債表。

In fact, by 2013 or by 2014, the Fed signaled to the world that no more printing money and we are going to stop at this point.

事實上，到 2013 年或 2014 年，美聯儲向全世界發出了不再印鈔的信號，我們將在此時停止印鈔。

In fact, we will try to get rid of all of these securities that we have purchased and we will take most of this money that we have printed out of the economy.

事實上，我們將努力擺脫我們購買的所有這些證券，我們將從經濟中抽走我們印製的大部分貨幣。

That sent a very positive message to the world and that's why gold prices after that began to drop.

這向世界發出了一個非常積極的資訊，這也是之後金價開始下跌的原因。

If you pay close attention, gold prices even began to fall for a very long time.

如果你仔細觀察，金價甚至在很長一段時間內開始下跌。

And that correlates with the balance sheet of the Fed when they started in 2018 to shrink their balance sheet.

而這與美聯儲 2018 年開始縮減資產負債表時的資產負債率相關。

However, here is the most interesting part.

然而，最有趣的部分就在這裡。

In 2020, we know what happened exactly, it literally just changed everything, and the Fed was forced again to do exactly the same thing that they did back in 2008.

2020 年，我們知道到底發生了什麼，這簡直改變了一切，美聯儲被迫再次做與 2008 年一模一樣的事情。

And the balance sheet of the Fed grew from 3.8 trillion dollars up to 9 trillion dollars at its peak, which led to the rise of gold prices from around 1500 dollars or even I would say it was like 1300 dollars to as high as 3500 dollars.

美聯儲的資產負債表從 3.8 萬億美元增長到最高峰時的 9 萬億美元，這導致金價從大約 1500 美元，甚至我認為是 1300 美元上漲到 3500 美元。