Name: "大多數人都不知道英國即將發生什麼" (“Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To The UK”)
Uploaded: 2025-07-17T09:33:42.000Z
Duration: 16 min 24 s

轉承詞

The only reason that the economy hasn't collapsed yet is because the government has been relying on debt more than ever.

經濟尚未崩潰的唯一原因是，政府比以往任何時候都更加依賴債務。

But you can't borrow your way out of a crisis.

A debt is a debt and it must be paid back.

After all of that debt and all of that spending by the government, the economy seems in a much worse shape than it was prior to that.

在欠下這麼多債務、政府花了這麼多錢之後，經濟狀況似乎比之前更糟了。

And it seems like the British economy is about to face a stagflation.

If it happens, everybody is going to be wiped out.

如果發生這種情況，所有人都會被消滅。

Because a stagflation is a rising inflation, a rising unemployment, and at the same time, lower economic growth.

因為滯脹是指通貨膨脹率上升、失業率上升，同時經濟增長速度下降。

Which means that prices are going to keep rising, but your wages are going to keep going down, which is essentially going to make everybody much poorer.

這意味著物價會不斷上漲，但你的工資卻會不斷下降，這基本上會讓每個人都變得更窮。

So let's figure out how close the British economy is to a stagflation.

讓我們來看看英國經濟離滯脹還有多遠。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

Just by looking at the British GDP, you already can see a very clear problem.

只要看看英國的 GDP，就已經能發現一個非常明顯的問題。

Over the last 25 years, it seems like the economy hasn't been growing at all.

在過去的 25 年裡，經濟似乎沒有任何增長。

In 2007, the GDP was 3.1 trillion dollars.

2007 年，國內生產總值為 3.1 萬億美元。

That increase isn't really much given the fact that almost 18 years has passed.

考慮到已經過去了近 18 年，這一增長其實並不算多。

Did prices increase over the last 18 years?

在過去 18 年中，價格是否上漲？

But did the economy grow over the last 18 years?

但是，在過去的 18 年裡，經濟增長了嗎？

Which means that prices have grown on one side, but people's wages haven't grown on the other side.

也就是說，一邊是物價上漲，另一邊是人們的工資沒有增長。

Because if wages have grown on the other side, then the economy would have grown as well.

因為如果另一邊的工資增長了，那麼經濟也會增長。

Which means that over the last 18 years, every single British has been getting poorer and poorer.

這意味著，在過去的 18 年裡，每個英國人都在變得越來越窮。

And the only real growth that you see in this graph is in 2020 and it happened because the government massively borrowed money to get the economy out of the pandemic.

在這張圖中，你看到的唯一真正的增長是在 2020 年，這是因為政府大量借錢，讓經濟擺脫了大流行病。

Even if you look at the recent GDP growth, you see the exact same pattern, that there is a negative GDP growth.

即使你看看最近的國內生產總值增長，你也會發現完全相同的模式，即國內生產總值出現負增長。

In May it was negative 0.1 percent, in April it was negative 0.3 percent.

5 月份為負 0.1%，4 月份為負 0.3%。

And the only reason that it has grown in February and March is because the bank of England cut the interest rates.

而 2 月和 3 月經濟增長的唯一原因是英格蘭銀行降低了利率。

If it wasn't for the cut of interest rates by the bank of England, then the GDP wouldn't have grown at all.

如果不是英格蘭銀行降低利率，那麼國內生產總值根本不會增長。

In fact, if you look over the last 12 months, there has been multiple months where the GDP had a negative growth.

事實上，縱觀過去 12 個月，國內生產總值有多個月份出現負增長。

And if we are going to have two consecutive negative GDP growth, that's already a recession.

如果我們的國內生產總值連續兩次出現負增長，那就已經是衰退了。

And if the bank of England wouldn't lower down the interest rates, let's say to 1 percent or 2 percent, then chances of a recession is very likely.

如果英格蘭銀行不降低利率，比方說降到 1% 或 2%，那麼經濟衰退的可能性就非常大。

And if that recession is going to continue for multiple years, then you are going to face a depression.

如果經濟衰退持續多年，那麼你將面臨經濟蕭條。

Because at the end of the day, stagflation isn't just about the economic growth.

因為說到底，滯脹不僅僅是經濟增長的問題。

You have to take a look at the second aspect of stagflation, which is inflation.

你必須看一看滯脹的第二個方面，即通貨膨脹。

Inflation peaked back in 2023 at around 10 or 11 percent.

通貨膨脹率在 2023 年達到頂峰，約為 10%或 11%。

However, since then, the bank of England has done a fantastic job by hiking the rates from almost 0.5 percent to as high as 5.5 percent.

然而，從那時起，英格蘭銀行做了一件了不起的事，將利率從近 0.5% 提高到高達 5.5%。

And that had its impact where the inflation was lowered down to almost 2 percent by May of 2023.

其結果是，到 2023 年 5 月，通貨膨脹率已降至近 2%。

But a 2 percent inflation rate for a single month is not enough.

If you want to bring down inflation to 2 percent, you need at least 12 months of 2 percent inflation rate for you to claim that we had a 2 percent inflation.

如果你想將通脹率降至 2%，你至少需要 12 個月的通脹率達到 2%，才能聲稱我們的通脹率達到了 2%。

That's why if you look at the numbers, inflation has been rising since then.

這就是為什麼從那時起，通貨膨脹率一直在上升。

And currently, it's almost like 4 percent.

And this is how they calculate inflation.

這就是他們計算通貨膨脹的方法。

There are different ways to calculate inflation.

Like literally selectively take a basket of stuff and you can say that this is the inflation.

比如從字面上選擇性地拿一籃子東西，你就可以說這就是通貨膨脹。

However, that does not apply to the real life of people.

然而，這並不適用於人們的現實生活。

Because, for example, when you take things such as CPI, CPI does not include within itself house prices.

因為，舉例來說，當你使用諸如 CPI 的東西時，CPI 本身並不包括房價。

Suddenly, house prices have grown by 30 percent.

But you don't see that growth in the CPI report, which means that inflation hasn't grown that much.

但在 CPI 報告中卻看不到這種增長，這意味著通脹率並沒有增長那麼多。

Even by those standards, inflation has grown by 3.5 percent.

即使按照這些標準，通貨膨脹率也增長了 3.5%。

And here is the biggest problem is that the Bank of England cutting interest rates already by a single percentage.

而這裡最大的問題是，英格蘭銀行已經將利率下調了一個百分點。

And it seems like they will continue cutting interest rates.

Even according to Bank of England itself, like the inflation currently is 3.4 percent and the targeted inflation is 2 percent.

甚至根據英格蘭銀行自己的數據，比如目前的通脹率是 3.4%，而目標通脹率是 2%。

What does lowering down interest rates does to the economy?

It increases inflation because it is going to increase the supply of money in the economy.

它會增加通貨膨脹，因為它會增加經濟中的貨幣供應量。

So you haven't fixed inflation yet and you are already lowering down interest rates.

所以，你還沒有解決通貨膨脹問題，就已經在降低利率了。

Now, compare that to the Federal Reserve.

現在，將其與美聯儲進行比較。

The economy in the US isn't facing a recession, at least in the foreseeable future.

至少在可預見的未來，美國經濟不會出現衰退。

But at the same time, the inflation has gone down to like 2.3 percent.

但與此同時，通脹率也下降到了 2.3%。

And even in that case, the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to lower down inflation because it knows that you need at least 12 months of consistent inflation of 2 percent or below that in order for you to claim that.

即使在這種情況下，美聯儲對降低通脹率也非常猶豫，因為它知道，你需要至少 12 個月的通脹率持續保持在 2% 或更低的水準，你才有資格要求降低通脹率。

That means that inflation is not going to go below 3.4 percent.

這意味著通貨膨脹率不會低於 3.4%。

In fact, it is only going to rise after that.

But it also could mean that the government is very desperate and because they want to avoid a recession, since I have showed you just prior to that, that the GDP is slowing down.

但這也可能意味著政府非常絕望，因為他們想避免經濟衰退，因為我在此之前已經向你們展示過，國內生產總值正在放緩。

And if you don't want to see a recession, you lower down the interest rates in order to give the economy that boost.

如果你不想看到經濟衰退，你就會降低利率，以刺激經濟。

However, that boost is only going to be in numbers, it's not going to be in real life.

然而，這種提升只會體現在數字上，而不會體現在現實生活中。

In real life, people will simply see the value of their savings to be devalued.

在現實生活中，人們只會看到自己的儲蓄貶值。

The third part of the stagflation is the unemployment rate.

Unemployment has been rising consistently over the last year or so.

過去一年多以來，失業率持續上升。

It reached its all-time back in July of 2022.

它的歷史可追溯到 2022 年 7 月。

However, since then, the trend is very clear.

然而，從那時起，趨勢就非常明顯了。

Now, 4.7 percent isn't originally that bad.

現在看來，4.7% 本來也不算太差。

If you have it like 5 percent and above that, then it's a problem.

如果是 5%以上，那就有問題了。

It's a matter of time before it's going to get to 5 percent, especially when you see a lower economic activity.

它遲早會達到 5%，尤其是當你看到經濟活動減少時。

Secondly, you see that the government is so desperate to lower down interest rates when inflation is like 3.4 percent, which means that based on their math, it seems like the unemployment is about to hit 5 percent and after that it can literally keep growing.

其次，你會發現政府在通脹率高達 3.4% 的情況下還如此急切地降低利率，這意味著根據他們的計算，失業率似乎即將達到 5%，而在此之後，失業率還能繼續增長。

The second problem is that when you have high inflation, businesses are very cautious about spending.

第二個問題是，在高通脹的情況下，企業在支出方面會非常謹慎。

Because high inflation means that the cost of doing business is rising.

因為高通脹意味著經營成本上升。

And when you don't control your costs, then you're not having a profitable business.

如果你不控制成本，那麼你的企業就無法盈利。

Because at the end of the day, business is about getting something, turning it into something else, and then making a profit by putting your margin on top of it.

因為歸根結底，做生意就是得到東西，把它變成別的東西，然後在此基礎上再賺取利潤。

But when prices are rising so fast, you try to cut costs in order to control the cost of doing the business.

但當物價上漲如此之快時，你就會想方設法削減成本，以控制經營成本。

And one of the first things that you would do is cut your number of employees.

你要做的第一件事就是削減員工人數。

Because payroll is the largest expense that any business would possibly have.

因為工資是任何企業都可能擁有的最大開支。

And when you're cutting employment, that means that unemployment starts rising.

而當你削減就業時，就意味著失業率開始上升。

And this graph will again will keep trending upwards.

而這張圖還將繼續呈上升趨勢。

The second graph I want you to look at is the consumer confidence index.

You see, the economy is like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

你看，經濟就像一個自我實現的預言。

People are going to act based on what they believe will happen with the economy.

人們會根據自己對經濟發展的預期採取行動。

So for example, if everybody believes that the economy is going to continue to grow, everybody will start spending.

例如，如果每個人都相信經濟會繼續增長，那麼每個人都會開始消費。

If everybody believes that the stock market will continue to grow, people start buying stocks because they want to make a profit out of it.

如果每個人都相信股市會繼續增長，人們就會開始購買股票，因為他們想從中獲利。