Name: 我們達到了 iPhone 的頂峰。下一個是蘋果的 Vision Pro 耳機嗎？ (We hit peak iPhone. Is Apple’s Vision Pro headset next?)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T15:41:00.000Z
Duration: 8 min 21 s

現在進行式

過去簡單式

You hear that a lot, that 16 years after the iPhone first shipped, somehow it's a dying business now.

你經常會聽到這樣的說法，說 iPhone 推出 16 年後，不知何故，這門生意已經奄奄一息了。

Let me just clear that up for you real fast.

這是一段時間內 iPhone 的銷售情況。

The line may not be going up quite as fast as it used to, but that's only because the numbers are so big now.

線路的上升速度可能沒有以前那麼快了，但這只是因為現在的數字太大了。

In the first three months of this year, for instance, Apple sold $51.3 billion worth of iPhones, and its sales were actually up in a time where one study said smartphone sales in general were down about 13%.

例如，在今年前三個月，蘋果公司售出了價值 513 億美元的 iPhone 手機，在一項研究顯示智能手機總體銷量下降約 13% 的情況下，蘋果公司的銷售額卻出現了增長。

The iPhone is the best business maybe in the history of electronics, and rest assured, it is doing just fine.

iPhone 也許是電子產品史上最出色的商業產品，請放心，它的表現非常出色。

But you know what is true about the iPhone?

但你知道 iPhone 的真實情況嗎？

Hi, I'm David Pierce, and this is your status update.

你好，我是大衛-皮爾斯，這是你的狀態更新。

每年，我們都會換一部新 iPhone。

The cameras get a little better, the design changes a bit, we maybe get a USB-C port because the EU is forcing Apple to add one, but that's kind of it.

攝像頭變得更好了一些，設計有了一些變化，我們可能會得到一個 USB-C 端口，因為歐盟迫使蘋果公司增加一個 USB-C 端口，但僅此而已。

There's a kind of sameness across a lot of Apple's products.

蘋果的很多產品都有一種千篇一律的感覺。

The iPad, the Watch, the Apple TV, even AirPods.

iPad、手錶、Apple TV，甚至 AirPods。

Everything gets a little better every year, but it feels like it's been a while since we got a really big new idea.

一切都一年比一年好，但我們感覺已經有一段時間沒有真正的大新創意了。

The Mac is sort of an exception, but only because the M-series chips are so good that they seem like much more than a performance jump.

Mac 算得上是個例外，但這只是因為 M 系列芯片的性能非常出色，看起來不僅僅是性能上的飛躍。

But a performance jump is really all that they are.

但跳傘表演其實就是它們的全部。

Apple is a huge company with a bunch of really mature products, and most of them are very good.

蘋果公司是一家擁有眾多成熟產品的大公司，其中大部分產品都非常出色。

But honestly, I would argue that the most interesting, innovative, culture-shaking thing Apple has done in the last few years is Ted Lasso.

但老實說，我認為蘋果公司在過去幾年中所做的最有趣、最創新、最震撼文化的事情就是泰德-拉索（Ted Lasso）。

I mean, a TV show about people being nice to each other in this economy?

我是說，一部講述人們在當前經濟形勢下相互友善的電視節目？

I'm not sure you realize how psychologically healthy that actually is.

我不知道你是否意識到這樣做在心理上有多健康。

All that said, I do think we're about to see Apple's next really big swing.

綜上所述，我認為我們即將看到蘋果下一個真正的大動作。

Its annual developer conference, WWDC, is on June 5th.

其年度開發者大會 WWDC 將於 6 月 5 日舉行。

And if the rumors are true, and I think that they're true, we're gonna see Apple launch a headset.

如果傳言屬實，而且我認為傳言屬實，我們將看到蘋果推出一款耳機。

But we do know what the long-term vision is here, because everybody seems to have roughly the same one.

但我們確實知道這裡的長期願景是什麼，因為每個人似乎都有大致相同的願景。

It basically amounts to a pair of normal-looking glasses that display digital stuff over top of the real world.

它基本上就是一副看起來很普通的眼鏡，在真實世界的基礎上顯示數字內容。

It's a little bit Terminator, a little bit Jarvis from Iron Man, a little bit that videoconferencing scene in Kingsman, somewhere in that zone.

它有點像《終結者》，有點像《鋼鐵俠》中的賈維斯，有點像《王牌特工》中的視頻會議場景，就在這個區域的某個地方。

Unlike the Oculus Quest and a lot of other VR devices, Apple's going in on AR and mixed reality.

與 Oculus Quest 和許多其他 VR 設備不同，蘋果正在進軍 AR 和混合現實領域。

It doesn't want you zoning out and living in the metaverse.

It wants to just add some digital information over your experience of the real world.

它只是想在你對現實世界的體驗上添加一些數字信息。

But all the tech needed to make that happen in a pair of normal-looking glasses is a ways out, like a long ways out.

但要在一副普通眼鏡上實現這一點，所需的技術還很遙遠，非常遙遠。

So for now, it sounds like Apple's new headset, which is reportedly going to be called the Reality Pro, will be something a bit closer to the Oculus Quest.

是以，目前聽起來蘋果的新款頭顯（據說將被命名為 Reality Pro）將會是一款更接近 Oculus Quest 的產品。

Mark Gurman, the Bloomberg reporter, who has been on top of this stuff more than anybody else, has said they're gonna look like ski goggles.

彭博社記者馬克-古爾曼（Mark Gurman）比任何人都更瞭解這件事，他說它們看起來會像滑雪鏡。

The Reality Pro will probably be smaller and lighter than most other headsets, in part because it'll be tethered via a cable to a battery pack that'll either go in your pocket or on your hip.

Reality Pro 可能會比其他大多數耳機更小更輕，部分原因是它將通過一根線纜與電池組相連，而電池組可以放在口袋裡或臀部。

It's kind of like a chain wallet in 2023.

Or, no, actually, it's kind of a return to what it used to be, when you had those white cables running down and that's how you knew you had an iPod in your pocket.

或者，不，實際上，這有點像回到過去的樣子，那時你有那些白色的線纜，你就知道你的口袋裡有一個 iPod。

The Reality Pro will also reportedly have two 4K screens in the headset and outward-facing cameras to capture the real world.

據報道，Reality Pro 還將在耳機中配備兩個 4K 螢幕和外向攝像頭，以捕捉真實世界。

It might even have a feature that shows your eyes on an external screen, like personalized googly eyes so that people can see you even when you have the headset on.

它甚至可能具有在外部螢幕上顯示你的眼睛的功能，比如個性化的鵝蛋臉眼睛，這樣即使你戴著耳機，別人也能看到你。

But again, it's all just rumors and reporting for now, so we'll see.

不過，目前還只是傳言和報道，我們拭目以待。

There have been inklings out there that the Reality Pro isn't ready or that some executives don't think it should be launching at all and that it might just be a solution in search of a problem.

有傳言稱，Reality Pro 還沒有準備好，或者一些高管認為它根本就不應該推出，它可能只是在尋找問題的解決方案。

And it's definitely true that the big question for VR and AR in general is what is this for?

對於 VR 和 AR 來說，最大的問題無疑是：這是做什麼用的？

Games, sure, sort of, unless you get sick wearing a headset or your brain just gets tired after 20 minutes in there.

遊戲，當然，算是吧，除非你戴著耳機不舒服，或者你的大腦在裡面玩了 20 分鐘就累了。

Watching movies on big screens, definitely.

But is any of that enough to get you to strap a gadget to your face for hours at a time, especially before that looks like a pair of normal-looking glasses or anything remotely cool-looking at all?

但是，這一切是否足以讓你把一個小玩意兒綁在臉上一戴就是幾個小時，尤其是在它看起來像一副普通的眼鏡或任何看起來很酷的東西之前？

There's this tension out there right now between two competing ideas.

現在，兩種相互競爭的理念之間存在著緊張關係。

Apple has a long history of being the first company to get this kind of thing right.

長期以來，蘋果公司一直是第一家把這種事情做對的公司。

And also, it doesn't necessarily seem like even Apple is gonna be able to pull this off just yet.

而且，即使是蘋果公司似乎也不一定能做到這一點。

However it turns out, I would bet that the first version of this isn't going to be some kind of smash, earth-shaking hit.

不管結果如何，我敢打賭，第一版不會是什麼驚天動地的鉅作。

蘋果公司的首次嘗試很少成功。

Remember when the first iPhone didn't even have 3G and cost like $700?

還記得第一代 iPhone 連 3G 功能都沒有，而且售價高達 700 美元嗎？

Apple actually often launches things a little bit before they're fully ready to take over the market.

實際上，蘋果公司經常在產品完全準備好佔領市場之前推出一些新產品。

And if the Reality Pro costs $3,000, which is reportedly the real price, it's going to be a very specific thing for a very specific group of people.

如果 Reality Pro 的售價為 3,000 美元（據說這是真實價格），那麼它將會是一款非常特殊的產品，只適合非常特殊的人群。

I would bet you see it more in design firms and architect's office than in your friend's house or at work anytime soon.

我敢打賭，你在設計公司和建築師辦公室裡看到的更多，而不是在你朋友家或工作場所。

But here's my favorite thing, and to me the most interesting thing about what we think we know about the Reality Pro.

不過，我最喜歡的還是這一點，對我來說，這也是我們所瞭解的 Reality Pro 最有趣的地方。

More than anything, Apple seems to imagine the headset as a way to connect with people and consume content.

更重要的是，蘋果似乎把耳機想象成一種與人交流和消費內容的方式。

It's gonna have a FaceTime app, an Apple TV app, Apple Books, Safari, and a bunch of other first-party tools.

它將擁有 FaceTime 應用程序、Apple TV 應用程序、Apple Books、Safari 和其他一系列第一方工具。

Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, has said a few times over the years that he thinks AR and VR should be for connection and communication, not video games or whatever Meta's ideas about the Metaverse are.

蘋果公司首席執行官蒂姆-庫克（Tim Cook）多年來曾多次表示，他認為 AR 和 VR 應該用於連接和交流，而不是視頻遊戲或 Meta 關於 Metaverse 的任何想法。

I mean, he's just describing an iPhone, right?

我的意思是，他只是在描述 iPhone，對吧？

The Reality Pro might really basically just be an iPhone strapped to your face.

Reality Pro 從根本上說可能只是一部綁在你臉上的 iPhone。

And I actually think that might be a good thing because that's another thing about Apple.

實際上，我認為這可能是件好事，因為這也是蘋果的另一個特點。

Some of its most interesting and important products over the last 15 years have started out as iPhones.

在過去 15 年中，該公司一些最有趣、最重要的產品最初都是 iPhone。

The iPad was just a big iPhone until Apple started to figure out how it could be used for drawing or productivity.

在蘋果公司開始研究如何將 iPad 用於繪畫或提高生產力之前，iPad 只是一個大號的 iPhone。

And now it's morphing into its own kind of not quite laptop, not quite phone device.

現在，它正在蛻變成自己的一種不完全是筆記本電腦、也不完全是手機的設備。

The Apple Watch was an iPhone for your wrist.

Literally, the first Apple Watch prototypes were just iPhones strapped to Apple employees' wrists before Apple leaned into health and wellness and figured out what it was really for.

從字面上看，第一批 Apple Watch 原型機只是蘋果員工手腕上綁著的 iPhone，後來蘋果才涉足健康和保健領域，並弄清了它的真正用途。

The whole AirTags network is made up of iPhones.

整個 AirTags 網絡由 iPhone 構成。

Just about everything Apple does and makes exists and works the way that it does because of the iPhone.

幾乎所有蘋果公司所做的事情和製造的產品都是因為有了 iPhone 才得以存在和運行。

And really, the story of the iPhone is not just about smartphones.

實際上，iPhone 的故事並不僅僅與智能手機有關。

The iPhone is where Apple figured out a whole new way to do software, where it turned apps into the most important things that we run on screens everywhere, where it got us all used to being able to do everything on a gadget that's with us all the time.

iPhone 讓蘋果公司找到了一種全新的軟件開發方式，讓應用程序成為我們在任何地方的螢幕上運行的最重要的東西，讓我們習慣於在一個隨時隨地與我們在一起的小工具上做任何事情。

Even if in some distant future, we all ditch our smartphones because our AR glasses get so good and so useful, you'll still see the iPhone's legacy everywhere.

即使在遙遠的未來，我們都因為 AR 眼鏡變得如此出色和實用而拋棄了智能手機，你仍然會看到 iPhone 的遺產無處不在。

The flip side of that, of course, is it does suggest that the iPhone itself maybe doesn't have big moves left.

當然，這也從另一方面說明，iPhone 本身可能已經沒有什麼大動作了。

We're not likely to see some big, thinky redesign about how phones work or how they fit into our lives, mostly because the billions of people who have smartphones already don't want that.

我們不太可能看到一些關於手機如何工作或如何融入我們生活的大而全的重新設計，主要是因為數十億已經擁有智能手機的人並不希望這樣。

They want their phone to be a little faster.

他們希望自己的手機速度更快一些。

They want the camera to be a little better.

They don't want their phone to break when it falls.

他們希望電池的使用壽命更長。

These things are appliances now in a very real way, and that's okay.

現在，這些東西都以一種非常真實的方式存在於電器中，這沒有關係。

It just means that the iPhone is going to keep being the iPhone for a very long time, and it might be a little bit boring forever.

這只是意味著，iPhone 在很長一段時間內都將是 iPhone，而且可能永遠都有點乏味。

WWDC is on June 5th, so tune in and head to theverge.com for all of our coverage of everything Apple is up to.

WWDC 將於 6 月 5 日舉行，敬請關注並訪問 theverge.com，瞭解我們對蘋果公司所有活動的報道。

In the meantime, I'm gonna rewatch Ted Lasso.

同時，我要重看《泰德-拉索》。