Name: 國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）下調美國經濟增長預期，警告美國將受到特朗普關稅的最嚴重衝擊 | BBC News (IMF slashes US growth forecast warning it will be hardest hit by Trump tariffs | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-04-23T00:56:16.000Z
Duration: 7 min 1 s

The economy to be hardest hit by America's new tariffs could be America's.

受美國新關稅打擊最嚴重的可能是美國的經濟。

That's the prediction of the International Monetary Fund, which has slashed its forecast for global growth, saying President Trump's trade tariffs and the uncertainty they've caused will lead to a significant slowdown.

這是國際貨幣基金組織的預測，該組織已經下調了對全球經濟增長的預測，稱特朗普總統的貿易關稅及其引發的不確定性將導致經濟增長大幅放緩。

基礎被動語態

The UK's growth is forecast to be down as well.

預計英國的經濟增長也將下降。

And you can see the volatility on the markets.

This is the Dow Jones from the end of March to early today.

這是從三月底到今天早些時候的道瓊斯指數。

That's made up of 30 prominent companies, including household names like Apple and Nike and Disney.

這些公司由 30 家著名公司組成，包括蘋果、耐克和迪斯尼等家喻戶曉的公司。

This is a drop in the value of their share prices after the so-called Liberation Day.

這是所謂的解放日之後股價的下跌。

You can see that on April the 2nd, when the tariffs were announced.

您可以在 4 月 2 日宣佈關稅時看到這一點。

從那時起，它們的價值就開始搖擺不定。

Our economics editor Faisal Islam reports.

本臺經濟編輯費薩爾-伊斯蘭（Faisal Islam）報道。

孩子們在亞利桑那州的斯科茨代爾玩耍。

And most of it is imported from Europe, including the UK, but overwhelmingly from China.

其中大部分從包括英國在內的歐洲進口，但絕大部分來自中國。

And Donald Trump's tariffs are now hitting home here.

而唐納德-特朗普的關稅政策現在正打到這裡。

And they will increase our prices an average of 31% across all of the products.

他們將把我們所有產品的價格平均提高 31%。

More supplier emails came in while we were there.

我們在那裡時，收到了更多供應商的電子郵件。

Not just inflation in action, but chaos for businesses.

這不僅是通貨膨脹的表現，也是企業的混亂。

We won't print any prices on our catalogue this year.

今年，我們不會在目錄上印製任何價格。

是以，我們正在做出這一改變。

You can't put prices in because it's so uncertain.

因為不確定因素太多，所以無法定價。

Other business people, I know home builders that have loaded up on lumber and are storing it on empty lots, steel manufacturers that have loaded up on steel, anticipating the increase in prices.

我認識的其他商界人士中，有的房屋建築商已經大量採購木材，並將其存放在空地上；有的鋼鐵製造商已經大量採購鋼材，以應對價格上漲。

Entire passenger jets are now being sent back with a return label from China to Boeing's Seattle base after China's retaliatory tariffs.

在中國徵收報復性關稅後，整架客機被貼上退貨標籤從中國運回波音西雅圖基地。

All of that is reflected in the IMF's new forecast, with the whole world hit and the US hardest hit of the major economies in terms of downgrades to growth.

所有這些都反映在國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的新預測中，就下調增長評級而言，全世界都受到了打擊，而美國是主要經濟體中受打擊最嚴重的。

The UK is also now forecast to grow notably more slowly, but still faster than the other G7 European economies.

目前預測英國的增長速度也將明顯放緩，但仍快於歐洲七國集團的其他經濟體。

Risks to the global economy have increased and are firmly to the downside.

全球經濟面臨的風險已經增加，並堅定地傾向於下行。

First, while we are not projecting a global downturn, the risk it may happen this year have increased substantially.

首先，雖然我們沒有預測全球經濟會衰退，但今年可能發生衰退的風險已大大增加。

As the world's finance ministers gather here in Washington with no clear path to alleviate these trade tensions, another acute concern arises, which is doubts about the US's role in anchoring the world's financial system through the dollar.

當世界各國財長齊聚華盛頓，卻沒有明確的途徑來緩解這些貿易緊張局勢時，另一個令人擔憂的問題出現了，那就是對美國通過美元錨定世界金融體系的作用的懷疑。

President Trump has been criticising the head of his central bank as a total loser because he won't cut interest rates.

美國總統特朗普一直責備其央行行長是個徹頭徹尾的失敗者，因為他不肯降息。

That has spread further concern in markets on top of everything else.

除此以外，這也進一步引發了市場的擔憂。

Back in Trump country in a rural Arizona biker bar, the president's supporters remain resolute, but others are starting to feel the impact.

回到特朗普的國家，在亞利桑那州的一個鄉村摩托車手酒吧裡，總統的支持者們依然態度堅決，但其他人已經開始感受到影響。

I think everyone should be worried right now.

我認為每個人現在都應該擔心。

When there's a lot of uncertainty it creates panic in the market.

當存在大量不確定性時，市場就會產生恐慌。

Other countries taxing us and putting high tariffs on our goods that we don't even know about and I think the fact that now it's coming to light, I feel really confident that our president right now is going in the right direction and I back him 100%.

其他國家對我們徵稅，對我們的商品徵收高額關稅，而我們卻渾然不知，我認為現在這一事實已經曝光，我對我們的總統現在正朝著正確的方向前進充滿信心，我百分百支持他。

We got to take a little bit of a hit to be able to get to the other side.

我們必須承受一點打擊，才能到達彼岸。

And it hurts, it hurts a little bit, but it's going to hurt a lot more later if we don't.

如果我們不這樣做，以後會更痛苦。

The Trump trade war is starting to be felt on the home front and many from the rest of the world hope that helps rein it in.

特朗普的貿易戰已開始在美國國內顯現，世界其他國家的許多人都希望這有助於遏制貿易戰。

Well, first of all, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, arrives at this meeting tonight.

首先，校長瑞秋-裡夫斯將出席今晚的會議。

Do you get a sense that the US is in deal mode with the UK and also possibly with China?

您是否感覺到美國正在與英國以及可能與中國進行交易？

Well, Fiona, I mean, we have the encapsulation of the chaos that underpins the seesawing chart, as you called it, that you just displayed, really just in this minute right now.

好吧，菲奧娜，我是說，我們看到了你剛才展示的蹺蹺板圖（你稱之為 "蹺蹺板圖"）背後的混亂，就在現在這一分鐘裡。

Because the reason why stock markets in America bounced back up today, as you showed, was the sense in which the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, had suggested a sort of olive branch out to the Chinese that a deal would be necessary, essentially, eventually.

正如您所指出的，美國股市今天反彈的原因在於，美國財政部長斯科特-貝松向中方伸出了橄欖枝，表示最終有必要達成協議。

But as we speak right now, the President, Donald Trump, is in the White House announcing, we think, some sort of trade announcement.

但就在我們發言的此刻，唐納德-特朗普總統正在白宮宣佈，我們認為是某種貿易聲明。

And he said, I'm going to play hardball with China, which was not the message which underpinned the stock markets going up.

他說，我要對中國採取強硬手段，但這並不是支撐股市上漲的資訊。

So you get this sense of slight chaos of different voices in the administration saying slightly different things.

是以，你會感覺到政府中不同的聲音說著不同的話，略顯混亂。

Into this melee comes the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who's just about to touch down here in the US.

大統領瑞秋-裡夫斯（Rachel Reeves）也加入了這場混戰。

And she'll be meeting the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson.

她還將會見美國財政部長斯科特-貝松。

She says the changing world is unsettling for families.

她說，不斷變化的世界讓家庭感到不安。

But she says that she will always act to defend British interests and that we need a world economy that provides stability and fairness, more trade and global partnerships between nations with shared interests.

但她表示，她將始終採取行動捍衛英國的利益，我們需要一個能夠提供穩定和公平的世界經濟，需要更多的貿易和利益共享的國家之間的全球夥伴關係。

Is that a hint that, yes, she will try and do something with the US, very difficult to know exactly what they want, but perhaps the future is also doing deals with the likes of the people in the Pacific, with the Canadians, perhaps a better deal with the European Union.

這是否暗示著，是的，她將嘗試與美國做一些事情，但很難確切知道他們想要什麼，但也許未來也會與太平洋地區的人們、加拿大人達成協議，也許會與歐盟達成更好的協議。

If you can't rely on exactly the negotiation with the US, perhaps that's part of this as well.

如果不能完全依靠與美國的談判，也許這也是原因之一。

She'll be talking to all those people when she arrives here for this IMF meeting.

當她來到這裡參加這次國際貨幣基金組織會議時，她將與所有這些人交談。

But we await what Donald Trump says over at the White House.

但我們在等待唐納德-特朗普在白宮發表的講話。

Well, in the last few minutes, Donald Trump has been speaking.

在過去的幾分鐘裡，唐納德-特朗普發表了講話。

He's been talking about a possible deal with China.

他一直在談論與中國達成交易的可能性。

Let's get more with our North America editor, Sarah Smith.

讓我們與北美編輯莎拉-史密斯（Sarah Smith）一起了解更多。

What more can you tell us about what he's been saying?

你還能告訴我們他都說了些什麼嗎？

Yeah, Donald Trump's in the Oval Office at the moment with his Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson.

是的，唐納德-特朗普此刻正在橢圓形辦公室和他的財政部長斯科特-貝松在一起。

And he was asked if he agreed with him that these tariffs on China were ultimately unsustainable and that they would have to do a deal.

他被問及是否同意他的觀點，即對中國徵收的這些關稅最終是不可持續的，他們必須達成協議。

And he indicated that was what they want to do.

他說，我們與中國的關係很好。

Have a listen to Donald Trump in his own words.

聽聽唐納德-特朗普自己怎麼說。

I'm not going to say, oh, I'm going to play hardball with China.

我不會說，哦，我要和中國玩硬的。

I'm going to play hardball with you, President Xi.

But ultimately, they have to make a deal, because otherwise, they're not going to be able to deal in the United States.

但歸根結底，他們必須達成協議，否則，他們將無法在美國進行交易。

是以，我們希望他們參與進來。

But they have to and other countries have to make a deal.

但他們必須和其他國家達成協議。

Now, that's really interesting, because it's not always been clear that Donald Trump did want to do a deal with China.

現在，這真的很有趣，因為唐納德-特朗普並不總是很清楚自己確實想與中國達成協議。

Often it sounds as though he wants to box China out of the American economy.

聽起來，他似乎經常想把中國排除在美國經濟之外。

But they are eager to do deals with a lot of other countries around the world.

但他們渴望與世界上許多其他國家達成交易。

He delayed a lot of the tariffs for 90 days.

And then he said they had 90 days to make 90 deals around the world.

然後他說，他們有 90 天的時間在全世界做 90 筆交易。

And they're talking from countries from the EU to Japan to India, hoping to try and get some kind of trade deals announced soon, which will, of course, decrease the amount of tariffs that could be levied against these countries.

他們正在與歐盟、日本和印度等國進行談判，希望儘快達成某種貿易協議，當然，這將減少這些國家可能被徵收的關稅。

Well, we've watched this with interest, Sarah, outside the White House.

莎拉，我們在白宮外饒有興趣地看著這一切。