If you look at the smartphone market over the last few years and Apple's smartphone sales,

綜觀過去幾年的智慧型手機市場以及蘋果手機的銷售

it's very clear that the smartphone market is maturing,

很明顯可以看到智慧型手機市場逐漸成熟

and each additional iPhone is a smaller incremental upgrade than the prior one.

每一隻 iPhone 與前一代之間的進步越來越小

The iPhone X, the flagship $1000 phone that was launched this week—

iPhone X，這支要價一千美金的旗艦機在這禮拜發表

it's beautiful, it does have some new features associated with it,

設計美觀，也的確有一些新的功能

but a lot of folks are saying,

但很多人說

"Hey, it doesn't seem that much better, I'm happy with the 8, and we'll wait on it."

「嘿，好像也沒有好那麼多，我覺得 8 就夠了，我們再等等吧！」

So, there is, I think, within smartphones, a maturing.

所以這就是我所謂的，智慧型手機的成熟

We certainly see that in sales, but there is hope for Apple and other smartphone vendors.

在銷售上我們無疑可以看到此現象，但是對於蘋果與其他智慧型手機銷售者還有希望

What Apple has managed to do is remarkably create lock-in for its ecosystem.

蘋果成功地將用戶鎖進他們的生態系裡面

Not just its devices, it's not just competing on the features of the devices,

不只是裝置，他們不只是在裝置的功能上競爭

it has locked Apple users into the iPhone and iOS ecosystem.

他們將蘋果的用戶鎖在 iPhone 和 iOS 的生態系裡

This gives Apple enormous power.

這讓蘋果無比強大

And if you look at where Apple's growth is coming from,

如果你去看蘋果的成長是哪裡來的

it is actually the services business now.

事實上，要歸功於他們所提供的服務了

Services business has grown steadily the last many years, in terms of quarters.

服務產業在過去幾年，從季來看，是穩定成長的

That is expected to continue,

這預期將會持續

and in fact, one Wall Street analyst, Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley,

事實上，一位華爾街分析師，摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty

thinks that Apple is on the verge of launching the next big thing—

她認為蘋果即將發表下一個重大的科技發展

which is, in her view, augmented reality.

就是擴增實境

There has been huge hype around virtual reality and other technologies over the last few years,

虛擬實境及其他科技在過去幾年是最紅的話題

but in terms of where the rubber meets the road,

但當真正考慮其發展潛力時

what's actually happening, it looks like the excitement has moved to augmented reality.

實際情況是，看起來這些關注都移往擴增實境了

Morgan Stanley has a big note that we'll explore in a future Bottom Line segment,

我們會在之後的 Bottom Line 單元討論摩根士丹利對這件事的看法

talking about what this could be.

探討這將能如何發展

But Morgan Stanley believes that

但摩根士丹利認為

augmented reality and the services and apps associated with it

擴增實境和與它相關的服務與應用程式

could ultimately drive Apple to $250 a share.

最終將能把蘋果股價推至 250 美元一股

So, what normally happens in consumer electronics is that

一般來說，消費性電子產品都會

you have relentless downward price pressure on whatever the gadget happens to be.

無止盡面臨價格調降的壓力，不管你是哪一種產品

Apple has miraculously managed to avoid that thus far,

蘋果至今仍奇蹟般地避免了這個問題

they have now created a very wide range of iPhones, priced from $350 all the way up to $1000.

他們創造了各種 iPhone，價位從 $350 到 $1000 都有

So there is a price point for almost everybody within that,

每個人在範圍內都有適合的價位

and they have managed to tie a services business that is growing steadily and rapidly to that.

他們成功將發展穩定且快速的服務事業與手機銷售結合

So even though, I would argue, this is the last big iPhone launch,

所以雖然我會說這是最後一次 iPhone 的重大發表

there is (are) many good times ahead for the iPhone ecosystem, smartphones in general,

iPhone 生態系還是有著大好光景，大體上是指智慧型手機

and it comes down to this services line.

歸結於蘋果提供的一系列服務

So, well done, Apple.

做得好，蘋果