字幕列表 影片播放 列印英文字幕 What was the cause of the Great Depression that started in 1929? That was a long time ago. So what's this have to do with you? Well, no matter what you're going to do, you're going to be working with money. And it's important for you to understand how money works and how it could stop working. The lesson you're about to learn applies to all currencies at all times. Despite persistent myths, the Great Depression was not caused by the stock market crash or by a failure of markets. It was caused by a failure of the Federal Reserve System, the so-called "lender of last resort." Created by the U.S. government in 1913, the Federal Reserve System is supposed to prevent booms and busts in the overall economy by providing a sound currency. In the 1930s they failed in this job. They did not provide enough liquidity to banks, the raw material banks need to carry on their business. Managing liquidity correctly keeps the buying power of money stable and keeps banks from running out of cash. Imagine if you couldn't get your money when you needed it and the problems that would cause. I went on this date last Saturday. Are you serious? The guy was really cute. Hi, I’m Carra Cheslin and, like you, my friends and I would like the world to be better. It really bothers us that when we try to solve a problem, sometimes the solution causes even more problems. Wait guys if we’re gonna catch the movie we should probably get going. It starts in like fifteen minutes. Oh yeah sure. Can I just run in and get some money? I'll be right back. Yeah. Hurry up. What? That doesn’t make any sense. Grandma just gave me a check last week. Okay, don’t panic. Try again. This is gonna take longer than I thought, the machine is like not making sense. Here, lemme see. Okay. Has this ever happened to you? Well, once it happened to millions of people and it wasn’t just some little computer glitch. It was called the Great Depression… and well you know about that. Did you do your pin right? Millions of people put their money- their hard earned savings into the bank. So imagine the panic that they have when they tried to withdraw some of their life savings and the bank refused them! What? And imagine that it happened not only to you, but to people all over? Sound farfetched? Well, it really happened in the 1930s. Millions of people were left with just the money they had left in their wallets. But why did all those bank vaults go empty and where did all the money go? So... what caused the Great Depression? I have to think. Give me a sec. I’m not really that sure. It might have been World War I. Just the lack of jobs. It was the stock market crash. Instability of some sort. Right? See…no one even mentions the absence of cash, which caused a national loss of faith in our monetary system. That’s what caused the Great Depression. And it didn’t just affect adults. Did you know that at the height of the Great Depression, there were a quarter of a million teenagers living on the roads, by themselves, in America, and tens of thousands of kids with their families? I had no idea. Can you imagine? Their fathers lost their jobs – they’d been evicted from their homes. Even their schools— thousands of them-- went bankrupt and closed their doors. How could this have happened in our country? Our economic system hadn’t changed, so what was it? Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange. Since it’s kind of the center of capitalism, I thought I ought to come here myself and see what it’s all about. Wow! It’s pretty crazy down there…. all the hectic activity. But now that I’m here, I see that it’s just an open market with buyers and sellers - based on supply and demand - to the tune of 2 billion shares a day. Most of us know what happened here in 1929. The stock market crashed. I’ve heard others blame it on corruption or income inequality, or even on the capitalist system itself. What happened was, more people wanted to sell than wanted to buy, so prices dropped… big time. But while there are many things that contributed to the Great Depression, there’s another less dramatic, but just as important reason that has kind of fallen through the cracks. Economists know about it, but most people don’t. It has more to do with money than it does with stocks. Not far from the stock exchange, is this building: 79 Delancey Street. This building doesn’t look like much now, but then it’s been through some rough times. You see, this is the building where the depression actually started - not Wall Street. Most people think that the economy was booming right up to the crash; but it wasn’t. Business had, in fact, begun to turn down in mid-1929. The crash made the recession worse. And then came a series of bank failures in the South and Midwest. But the recession only became a really serious crisis, when these failures spread to New York, and in particular to this building, then the headquarters of the Bank of United States. The bank’s customers had heard lots of rumors. They panicked. They tried to withdraw all of their deposits in cash at once-- and that’s what a run on the bank is. What would you do if you went to the bank to withdraw all your hard earned savings, and the bank didn’t have your money? I don’t trust banks because of that reason. I’d be scared to death. I’d be angry. I’d be frustrated. I’d be callin’ my lawyer. That happened to my parents and they had to do manual labor for years. If banks are gonna lose your money, you might as well just make your own. Why not make your own? The ten dollar Carra Reserve note… Nice, huh? But why will everybody take this dollar, and not my money? They’re both only paper, after all. And, what exactly is money anyways? And what I came up with is this. it all comes down to trust. You see, on my money it says, “In Carra We Trust.” The people in my house know that my word has value. And it’s the same with the world’s national currencies: they only have value because their governments say they have value, and in the case of the U.S. dollar, at least, most people on earth have faith that our government and economy, and therefore the dollar, will continue to be strong. But if something happens to break that faith and trust, the economy can crumble and people become poor. And that’s what happened in the Great Depression. So where did all that cash go? Well, first off, you might think that when you take some cash into a bank to deposit it, that the bank takes your money and sticks it into a vault somewhere until you need it again. But that’s not how it happens. Hi. I’d like to make a withdrawal. The bank uses our money- they’re in business to do that. They take a large part of what we put in and then lend it out to other people. All right. I think we can do a loan for about $600,000. That’s great. Thank you. The bank also invests in things like money market accounts, real estate, bonds, and mutual funds. Our money is what makes them money. Thank you. Of course they have to keep some money on hand. So that when I stop by on my way to buy something they can give me my cash. But still, if all the bank’s customers tried to withdraw all their savings at once, the bank just wouldn’t have enough cash reserves to meet the demand. And that’s exactly what happened-- all over the country-- and what turned an economic crisis into the Great Depression. In order to prevent such a run you’ve gotta convince people to stop asking for money or you’ve got to find a way to get more cash… And that’s one of the main roles of the Federal Reserve. This is the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC. And I’ve been invited to talk with Randy Kroszner, one of the governors of the Federal Reserve Board, and I’m really excited! The Fed’s job is to make sure that the nation’s economy and banking system stay healthy and sound. I asked Governor Kroszner about the Fed’s role in the Great Depression. Unfortunately, the Fed did not pursue very good policies in the late 20s, early 30s… In particular in the early 30s. It just didn’t really respond to what was going on in the economy. I read where most of these banks were sound, well-run institutions that they had plenty of assets - they were just in a cash crunch. The Fed could have stepped in and stopped it at any point, but they didn’t. What the Fed did was focus on the so called monetary base. That is, the parts of the money supply that they directly control the amount of physical cash that’s out there, and some of the so called reserves that banks have. But what’s relevant for the overall economy is not just that, but how that multiplies out to be part of the money supply. So by focusing on the wrong thing, by just focusing on the monetary base, and assuming oh well these are just like normal times we know that the multiplier is “x” and so the money supply will always be “x” times the monetary base, we don’t really have to worry. That obviously was a terrible mistake in the 1930s. Basically, when the bank loans money, it doesn’t just go to one person and stay there. I just bought this lot. I’d like to get a loan to build a house. Alright. I think we can do a loan for about $600,000. At a prime plus rate… maybe one point. That person uses it to run a business, buying supplies and paying salaries and commissions. And the people that get paid, in turn, use that money to pay for other things. More when you’re done. Thanks, dad. And I keep the ball rolling by spending that money at the movies or at the mall. And that’s how money multiplies throughout the economy. But the early 30s were not normal times; the people were scared. They began hoarding their money under mattresses and in their cookie jars, and not putting those dollars back into the economy. The Fed was hoarding cash, too, shrinking the supply of money out there for people to use, and that made it even worse. The sudden disappearance of paper money, which is after all, one of our economy’s most powerful and recognizable symbols… sent the country into a tailspin. People lost faith in their financial and business institutions. That multiplier was much smaller, the money supply was collapsing by a third, and the Fed wasn’t really paying attention. They were really neglecting a very important problem. So what might have happened if they had increased the money supply? It’s possible that we would have had a depression, but it wouldn’t have been great. As I sometimes say, it’s the Fed that helped to make the depression into the Great Depression. If the Fed had provided more liquidity to the system, more cash to the system, people might not have lost as much confidence as they did, the banking system might not have collapsed as it did. Does that mean we could have avoided any sort of recession or depression completely? I don’t think so. Could we have avoided making the depression great? Probably. And I learned something else, too. In 1999 and 2000, the conditions were just like those in the Great Depression. But we didn’t have a depression. So why do you think that is? The behavior of the stock market and the economy in the late 90s was almost identical with that of the late 20s. The stock market boomed, just as it did in 1929. In 2000, there was also a big stock market crash, and stock prices tumbled. But after the crash of 1929, the economy dived and kept going down. Not so after the crash of 2000. There’s no economic collapse, no depression, no homeless teenagers. Why? Because the Fed added to the money supply in 2001, in response to the crash. It correctly met the challenge so people didn’t lose faith in the money system or in the economy. So you see, the Fed affects you and me everyday, and you didn’t even know it. When the Fed made mistakes, the unintended consequences were extreme hardship. In the 1930s, it helped to turn a recession into the Great Depression. I knew I it was in there! C’mon guys let’s go. I was just telling her: all you need is a little faith! So in the 1930s, the Fed printed too little money. But in the 1970s, they printed too much money, and then we wound up with double digit inflation. Some economists suggest we might be better off without the Fed. Follow Carra's example. Let banks print their own currency. More broadly, many economists suggest the government shouldn't intervene in markets. These are challenging questions that I hope you will explore further.
B1 中級 美國腔 大蕭條2.0 - 完整視頻 (The Great Depression 2.0 - Full Video) 344 31 Ji Zhi Chen 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日 更多分享 分享 收藏 回報 影片單字