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  • So if your question is when to rob a bank which plainly is our questionthat’s

  • what we titled the book, you think about a few things. You think about, you know, time

  • of day, day of week, part of the year and so on. And this grew out of the fact that

  • I’d read about a bank robber in New Jersey who was finally arrested after robbing banks

  • on six Thursdays. And it made me wonder maybe Thursday is the best day to rob a bank. Maybe

  • he knew something about the way the bank operated. Maybe that was his day off, whatever. So I

  • went looking into the bank robbery data itself because that’s kind of what we do is look

  • at data and see what’s interesting and this one was more, you know, we weren’t searching

  • for this before the question arose. And so it turns out that the data are kind of fun

  • to play with. It turns out that bank robberies are mostthe most common day is Friday

  • which I guess people, it makes sense because people think it’s payday and there’s a

  • lot of money coming in and going out. But that doesn’t necessarily mean, you know,

  • youll be more likely to be successful on Friday. There’s really no big difference

  • in success rates from day of week. But you are much more likely to get more money if

  • you rob a bank in the morning than in the afternoon.

  • And yet most bank robbers work in the afternoon and not the morning which leads you to think

  • well either bank robbers aren’t very good at profit maximizing, you know, thinking the

  • way economists do or that maybe they just can’t get up in the morning and go to work

  • bank robbing which means that maybe if they could get up in the morning early in the first

  • place they wouldn’t have to resort to bank robbery. But the real answer to when to rob

  • a bank is never. And never is the right answer because the ROI or the return on investment

  • on bank robbery is terrible. So if youre going to become a criminal bank robbery is

  • a bad crime. The average haul is about $4,000 in the U.S. per bank robbery. In the UK it’s

  • substantially more so you could consider that. And youre likely to get arrested after

  • just three bank robberies and sent to prison. So you have to think as a career move bank

  • robbery is really dreadful. And then one other tangent that we got involved with on this

  • and looking into bank robberies is internal, you know, inside jobs. And one of the most

  • interesting ones we came across was a woman in Iowa who for years and years and years

  • had been embezzling money from a bank, about two million dollarsworth. And the bank

  • was actually ownedthe president of the bank was her father interestingly. So I don’t

  • know what the dynamics were there. And the way she was finally caughtand it turns

  • out that she kept two sets of books which is kind of how you want to embezzle. And she

  • was exhausted when she was caught.

  • The reason she was exhausted was because she’s worked so hard. She’d never taken a vacation

  • over all those years. And the reason was that she was scared to because if she took a vacation

  • someone would find that she’d been keeping two sets of books and she would have been

  • found out. So what was interesting is she went to prison for a few years. She was let

  • out. She moved back in with her parents who were obviously very forgiving since it was

  • the dad’s bank that she had kind of put into trouble. And then she went to work with

  • law enforcement. And what I love about this is it’s the classic tale ofonly someone

  • who knows how to cheat or how to steal or how to lie or rob would know how to help the

  • good guys catch the bad guys from doing it. So she went to work for law enforcement and

  • they found that one of the best metrics to look for in preventing white collar crime

  • generally in embezzlement, particularly it was people who took, who didn’t take vacations

  • or who took really strange vacations. So if in your firm you see that someone is passing

  • up on their vacation time you shouldn’t necessarily think of them as just like a super

  • hard worker or an altruist to your company. You might want to take a look in their drawer

  • and see if theyre keeping a second set of books.

So if your question is when to rob a bank which plainly is our questionthat’s

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何時搶劫銀行,與Freakonomics的Stephen J. Dubner合作。 (When to Rob a Bank, with Freakonomics’ Stephen J. Dubner)

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