some findings that really surprise me

令我非常驚訝的研究結果

about what makes companies succeed the most,

是有關創業成功的關鍵因素

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

實際影響創業成功與否 最關鍵的因素是什麼

I believe that the startup organization

我認為創業

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

是使得世界變得更加美好的方式之一

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

如果你帶領一組團隊 給他們適當的激勵獎金

and organize them in a startup,

開創一個事業

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

你可以用前所未有的方式 開啟人類的潛能

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

你讓團隊達到令人難以置信的成功

But if the startup organization is so great,

但是既然創業是如此美好

why do so many fail?

為什麼有這麼多人失敗？

That's what I wanted to find out.

這是我想要找出原因的地方

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

我想要找出導致創業成功

for startup success.

最關鍵的因素

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

而且我試著系統化地找出關鍵因素

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

以避免我的直覺 和我的認知錯誤影響結果

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

我觀察多年來我見過的許多公司

I wanted to know this

想要了解創業成功的關鍵因素

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

因為我從十二歲就開始做生意

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

就讀初中時，我在公車站賣糖果

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

高中時，我製作太陽能的裝置

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

大學時，我製作擴音器

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

大學畢業後，我成立軟體公司

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

20 年前，我成立一家公司叫 「創意實驗室」(Idealab)

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

在這 20 年當中，我創辦超過 100 家公司

many successes, and many big failures.

很多是成功的企業，但也有很失敗的

We learned a lot from those failures.

我們從失敗中學到許多寶貴經驗

So I tried to look across what factors

所以我試著找出是什麼因素

accounted the most for company success and failure.

導致一家公司成功或失敗

So I looked at these five.

我找出五個因素

First, the idea.

第一個因素是，創意

I used to think that the idea was everything.

我以前認為有創新的點子最重要

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

我把我的公司名為「創意實驗室」 就知道我多麼看重這個因素

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

「啊！有了！」的當下 有一個想法從腦中浮現

But then over time,

但隨著時間的過去

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

我開始想或許團隊成員、執行力及適應力

that mattered even more than the idea.

甚至比創意還重要

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

我從沒想過會在 TED 講台上 引用拳擊手麥克・泰森的話

but he once said,

但他曾經說過

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

「每個人都有自己的計畫， 直到他們臉上挨了一拳」（笑聲）

And I think that's so true about business as well.

這句話可以完全適用在商場上

So much about a team's execution

團隊有是否有很強的執行力

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

完全在於他們能否能適應 被客戶拳頭打在臉上的能力

The customer is the true reality.

客戶的反應才是真正的現實

And that's why I came to think

這就是為何我開始思考

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

或許團隊才是最重要的因素

Then I started looking at the business model.

然後我又開始研究「商業模式」

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

一個企業有明確的產生營收的方法嗎？

That started rising to the top in my thinking

因此我開始思考

about maybe what mattered most for success.

或許這才是成功最關鍵的因素

Then I looked at the funding.

然後，我也考慮「募資」這個因素

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

有時後，企業籌得一大筆資金

Maybe that's the most important thing?

或許這才是最重要因素？

And then of course, the timing.

再來當然是「時機」

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

你腦海中的那個想法 會不會現在還不適用呢？

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

會不會現在開始還太早? 你必須教育消費者？

Is it just right?

時機點剛剛好？

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

或者太晚，市場上早已有大批的競爭者？

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

我試著仔細地以這五個因素

across many companies.

用來研究大量的公司

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

包括我創立的一百家公司

and 100 non-Idealab companies

和一百家非我創立的公司

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

試著以科學方法找出關鍵的因素

So first, on these Idealab companies,

首先，在我成立的公司

the top five companies --

其中最成功的五家公司

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, Net Zero, Tickets.com

those all became billion-dollar successes.

這五家公司非常賺錢

And the five companies on the bottom --

而五家最差的公司，分別是

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

Z.com, Insider Page, MyLife, Desktop Factory, poeplelink，

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

我們對這些公司抱有很高的期望 但仍然沒有成功

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

所以試著找出這些因素的排名

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

這些公司如何在每一個因素中取得分數

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

在非我建立的公司名單中 我找了一些極度成功的例子

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

Airbnb, Instagram, Uber YouTube 和 Linkedin.

And some failures:

也找了一些失敗的公司

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

像是 Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Flooz and Friendster.

Flooz 和 Friendster

The bottom companies had intense funding,

這些不成功的公司，籌得大筆資金

they even had business models in some cases,

有的甚至有商業模式

but they didn't succeed.

但是沒能成功

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

我試著研究，什麼因素 對這些公司的成功和失敗

for success and failure across all of these companies,

佔有最高的比率

and the results really surprised me.

結果讓我很訝異

The number one thing was timing.

最重要的因素是「時機」

Timing accounted for 42 percent

時機佔 42%

of the difference between success and failure.

這個比率是成功與失敗公司之間的差異

Team and execution came in second,

「團隊」和「執行力」排第二名

and the idea,

然後是「創意」

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

創意的可辨性，創意的獨特性

that actually came in third.

實際上排第三名

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

這個研究並不是絶對完整

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

並不是說「創意」不重要

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

但令我訝異的是「創意」不是最重要的

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

有時比較重要的，其實是「時機」

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

最後二個是「商業模式」和「募資」 這是可以理解的

I think business model makes sense to be that low

我想「商業模式」 獲得較低的排名是有道理的

because you can start out without a business model

因為沒有商業模式，也可以創業

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

你的客戶有需求時，再將商業模式加入

And funding, I think as well,

募資也是一樣道理

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

即使剛開始沒有資金 但公司越來越受歡迎

especially in today's age,

尤其是現在這時代

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

你就很容易籌得一大筆資金

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

讓我舉幾一些具體的例子

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

例如，大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

這間公司被許多聰明的投資者忽略

because people thought,

因為大家認為

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

「沒有人要將自家的房間出租給陌生人」

Of course, people proved that wrong.

但事實證明這個想法是錯的

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

它成功的因素之一

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

除了好的商業模式 好創意及優秀的執行力外

is the timing.

那就是「時機」

That company came out right during the height of the recession

公司創立之時 剛好是在經濟衰退的高點

when people really needed extra money,

人們需要額外的收入

and that maybe helped people overcome

這或許可以幫助人們克服

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

不喜歡將自己的房間出租給陌生人心態

Same thing with Uber.

優步 (Uber) 也是相同的情況

Uber came out,

優步成立之時

incredible company, incredible business model,

是個相當不錯的公司 具有優異的商業模式

great execution, too.

也有很強的執行力

But the timing was so perfect

成立的時間點是如此完美

for their need to get drivers into the system.

他們需要將計程車司機納入公司系統

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

而司機也在尋找額外的收入 這一點相當重要

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

「Citysearch」是我們早期成功的公司， 因應當時人們有網頁的需求而成立

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

我們在 1998 年在 TED 發表 GoTo.com

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

正逢當時企業在尋找符合成本效益 的方法，取得網路流量

We thought the idea was so great,

我們認為想這個點子真好

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

但事實上，時機或許更重要

And then some of our failures.

我們也有一些失敗公司的例子

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

我們成立一家公司稱為 Z.com 是一家線上娛樂公司

We were so excited about it --

我們對這家公司充滿期望

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

我們籌措足夠的資金 具備很好的商業模式

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

甚至與好萊塢極的優秀人才簽約 加入這個公司

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

但在 1999-2000 年 寬頻的普及率太低

It was too hard to watch video content online,

人們要在網路觀看影片很困難

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

我們必須在用戶端的瀏覽器置入轉碼器 協助用戶完成這個工作

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

這公司最後在 2003 年結束營業

Just two years later,

僅儘二年之後

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

Adobe Flash 解決了轉碼的問題

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

並且，美國的寬頻普及率超過百分之五十

YouTube was perfectly timed.

YouTube 就在這樣一個 完美的時間點成立了

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

好的創意，配上絕佳的時機

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

事實上，YouTube 在成立之初 並沒有商業模式

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

甚至不確定他們會成功

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

但它就成功在於遇上如此完美的時間點

So what I would say, in summary,

總之，我要表達的是

is execution definitely matters a lot.

「執行力」當然重要

The idea matters a lot.

「創意」也很重要

But timing might matter even more.

但「時機」更加重要

And the best way to really assess timing

評估時機最好的方式

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

是觀察消費者是否已經準備好

for what you have to offer them.

接受你要提供給他們的產品或服務

And to be really, really honest about it,

你要非常、非常誠實地考慮這個問題

not be in denial about any results that you see,

不要否認你所看到的結果

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

因為如果有你喜歡的事業 你要往前推動

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

你就必須非常誠實地考慮 「時機」這個因素

As I said earlier,

如我稍早所說的

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

創業可以改變這個世界 讓世界變得更美好

I hope some of these insights

我希望今天的這些觀察

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

或許可以幫助你提升創業成功率

and thus make something great come to the world

讓那些原本可能不會發生的創意點子

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

在現實世界裡開花結果

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

謝謝大家，你們是很棒的聽眾

(Applause)

（掌聲）