Name: 快訊：聯準會取消降息！油價飆漲、股市崩跌！ (BREAKING: Federal Reserve CANCELS Rate Cuts - Gas Prices Skyrocket, Stock Market Plummets!)
Uploaded: 2026-03-18T21:36:35.000Z
Duration: 15 min 59 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

As of a few hours ago, the Federal Reserve officially confirmed that they will not be lowering interest rates for the foreseeable future.

就在幾個小時前，美國聯邦準備理事會正式確認，短期內不會降息。

Except now, out of nowhere, there's another problem that almost no one saw coming.

但現在，突然出現了一個幾乎沒人預料到的新問題。

Private credit default rates are rising fast.

私人信貸違約率正在快速上升。

Reports show that interest rates are suddenly expected to move even higher in the next three months.

報告顯示，未來三個月的利率預計會突然變得更高。

At the same time that searches for can't sell a house hit an all time record.

同時，搜尋「賣不掉房子」的紀錄創下新高。

And if that wasn't bad enough, tomatoes now taste like popcorn.

如果這還不夠糟，番茄現在吃起來像爆米花。

Okay, in all seriousness, with the economy now at risk of a global recession, we need to talk about exactly what's happening.

好了，說真的，現在經濟面臨全球經濟衰退的風險，我們需要好好談談到底發生了什麼事。

What the Federal Reserve just said, the impact this is about to have on everything, money.

美國聯邦準備理事會剛剛說了什麼，這將對所有事物，也就是金錢，產生什麼影響。

And then finally, what this means for you watching.

然後最後，這對正在觀看的你意味著什麼。

Because these next few weeks will determine whether or not this is a temporary scare or the start of something much bigger that no one's prepared for.

因為接下來的幾週將決定這是一場短暫的虛驚，還是無人準備好應對的重大事件的開端。

Like, although, before we start, as usual, if you appreciate the last minute breaking news videos like this, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already.

就像，雖然，在我們開始之前，一如往常，如果你喜歡這種最後一刻的突發新聞影片，如果你點讚或訂閱了，我會非常感激。

Seriously, if you've never hit the like button before, it's totally free.

說真的，如果你以前從未點讚過，這是完全免費的。

And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a capybara.

作為對你這樣做的感謝，這裡有一張水豚的照片。

And also big thank you to Gemini for sponsoring this video.

另外也要非常感謝 Gemini 贊助這次的影片。

All right, so in terms of where all this starts, we need to talk about the absolute boogeyman of the economy, and

好的，所以說這一切是從哪裡開始的，我們需要談談經濟中最大的禍根，也就是

Like it or not, our entire economy is dictated by the price of oil.

不管你喜不喜歡，我們的整個經濟都由油價決定。

And even though that sounds dramatic, the more oil goes up, the more expensive everything else becomes.

雖然聽起來很誇張，但油價越高，其他東西就越貴。

Like, think of it this, your groceries, your Amazon packages, the plane you fly on, the fertilizer that grows food, every single one of those items used oil.

想想看，你的食品雜貨、你的亞馬遜包裹、你搭的飛機、種植食物的肥料，這些東西都跟石油有關。

And if that sounds impossible, remember, trucks run on diesel, ships run on fuel.

如果聽起來很難以置信，請記住，卡車用機油，船用燃料。

So when the price of oil goes up, literally everything else rises alongside with it.

所以當油價上漲時，幾乎所有東西都會跟著漲。

In fact, according to Federal reserve research, a 10% increase in the price of oil raises the energy CPI by roughly one and a half percent immediately.

事實上，根據美國聯邦準備理事會的研究，油價上漲 10%，能源的消費者物價指數（CPI）就會立刻上漲約 1.5%。

Well, it's a chain reaction because businesses see their margins squeezed, so they have to raise prices.

嗯，這就像骨牌效應，因為企業的利潤被壓縮了，所以他們不得不提高價格。

Consumers then spend more, which leads them with less money left over for everything else.

消費者花費更多，手上能留給其他事情的錢就更少了。

And as this continues, inflation returns and everything goes to sh.

隨著這種情況持續下去，通貨膨脹又會回來，所有東西都會變得亂七八糟。

As of a few days ago, it was reported that February's inflation came in at 2.4%, except this measured time before oil prices saw their largest increase since 2022.

就在幾天前，有報導指出二月的通貨膨脹率為 2.4%，但這是在油價創下 2022 年以來最大漲幅之前測量的。

And if oil remains above $100 a barrel, we could soon see inflation hit 3.5% faster than a lot of people expect.

如果油價維持在每桶 100 美元以上，我們很快就會看到通貨膨脹率達到 3.5%，速度比許多人預期的還要快。

For example, the national average for a gallon of gas jumped from $2.81 in January to $3.21 last week to $3.53 this week, which is a 10% increase in just seven days.

舉例來說，汽油的平均價格從一月的每加侖 2.81 美元，上週漲到 3.21 美元，這週更是漲到 3.53 美元，這在短短七天內就上漲了 10%。

And if this trend continues, analysts warn that her current oil closure could become three times the severity of the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, when the markets fell almost 45%.

而且如果這種趨勢持續下去，分析師警告說，目前的石油禁運可能會比 1970 年代的阿拉伯石油禁運嚴重三倍，當時市場下跌了近 45%。

This is why the Federal Reserve is really in an impossible position.

這就是為什麼美國聯邦準備理事會真的處於一個進退兩難的境地。

Because on the one hand, the job market is softening, the economy is weakening, and

因為一方面，就業市場正在走軟，經濟正在走弱，而且

personal savings is declining, which would benefit from lower rates.

個人儲蓄正在下降，這會從較低的利率中受益。

But on the other hand, oil is surging, prices are rising, and

但另一方面，石油正在飆升，價格正在上漲，而且

inflation might quickly return, which would require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates so that everything doesn't get out of control.

通貨膨脹可能會迅速捲土重來，這將要求美國聯邦準備理事會提高利率，以免一切失控。

Essentially, this is the latest stagflation crisis that so many people were worried about.

基本上，這就是許多人一直擔心的最新滯脹危機。

This occurs when inflation remains high during a time that unemployment increases.

這發生在失業率上升的時期，通貨膨脹卻仍然很高。

And current conditions could be the perfect storm for this to actually take place.

而目前的情況可能正是這種情況發生的完美風暴。

So what does this mean for the stock market?

那這對股市來說意味著什麼呢？

你知道嗎，有趣的地方就在這裡。

A few months ago, I mentioned how interesting it was that not a single analyst forecasted that the stock market would end the year negative.

幾個月前，我曾提到過，沒有一位分析師預測股市今年會收盤下跌，這點很有意思。

Like back then, every single expectation was that the stock market would continue to skyrocket higher, with estimates for the S&P 500 ranging between 7,100 to 8,100 by the end of the year.

就像那時候，所有人的預期都是股市會繼續飆升，預計到年底標準普爾 500 指數將介於 7,100 到 8,100 之間。

The last time every expert was unanimously bullish?

上一次所有專家都一致看漲是什麼時候？

是 2008 年，就在股市下跌 40% 之前。

And again in 2001 before the markets fell another 13%.

還有 2001 年，在股市又下跌 13% 之前。

Anyway, I mention this because so far The S&P 500 is trading about 5% from its all time high.

總之，我提到這點是因為到目前為止，標準普爾 500 指數距離歷史高點大約還有 5%。

And even though there's certainly potential for it to continue falling further it at this point, it's important to remember that pullbacks like this are extremely common.

雖然它確實有可能繼續下跌，但在這一刻，重要的是要記住，像這樣的回調極為常見。

In fact, this typically happens on average three times a year.

事實上，這平均每年都會發生三次。

And 10% drops happen on average every 18 months.

而 10% 的跌幅平均每 18 個月發生一次。

Even 20% drops happen every four years or so.

甚至 20% 的跌幅大約每四年發生一次。

Basically implying that what we're seeing right now isn't anything unusual.

這基本上意味著我們現在看到的並不是什麼不尋常的事情。

Of course, in terms of what's causing this specific Stock market sell off.

當然，就導致這次股市拋售的原因而言。

It's really just a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, heightened inflation expectations, and

這真的只是地緣政治不確定性、油價上漲、通膨預期升高，以及

a lot of political uncertainty, basically turning itself into a perfect storm, especially with the stock market already coming off record highs.

大量的政治不確定性，基本上形成了一場完美風暴，尤其是在股市已經從歷史高點回落的情況下。

However, here's where things start looking a lot more optimistic.

不過，事情開始變得樂觀起來了。

The Carson Group compiled 40 major geopolitical events over the last 85 years.

The Carson Group 整理了過去 85 年來 40 件重大的地緣政治事件。

And they found that on average, The S&P 500 loses only about 0.9% in the first month after an event, but

他們發現平均來說，S&P 500 指數在事件發生後的第一個月僅下跌約 0.9%，但

then rises 3.4% over the following six months.

在接下來的六個月內卻上漲了 3.4%。

Or as Ryan Detrick puts it, historically, what in the near term seems like a geopolitical crisis tends to be largely resolved from a market perspective over the ensuing six months.

或者用 Ryan Detrick 的話來說，歷史上，短期內看似地緣政治危機的事情，從市場角度來看，通常會在接下來的六個月內得到很大程度的解決。

Basically, the market's not reacting negatively to the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts, since that's been largely priced in for the last few weeks.

基本上，市場並沒有因為美國聯邦準備理事會暫停降息而產生負面反應，因為這在過去幾週內已經被市場消化得差不多了。

Instead, it just comes down to uncertainty.

相反地，這一切都歸結於不確定性。

Uncertainty with how high can oil prices stay for how long?

不確定油價會漲多高、持續多久？

And are there any other repercussions throughout the economy that could bite us in the butt?

經濟中是否會有其他可能讓我們吃苦頭的連鎖反應？

Now, if you believe that the United States and the entire global economy are irreparably damaged from a five week conflict, then yes, absolutely, we could go down from here.

現在，如果你認為美國和整個全球經濟會因為一場為期五週的衝突而遭受無法彌補的損害，那麼是的，絕對有可能會從這裡開始下跌。

But historically, these declines tend to be a good buying opportunity for those that don't panic.

但歷史上來看，這些下跌通常是給那些不恐慌的人一個很好的買進機會。

就像，你看看比特幣就知道了。

Even though it's already fallen 50% from the peak.

Surprisingly over the last month, Bitcoin has outperformed gold in The S&P 500, boosted by steady demand and a broader pool of money buying in to diversify into different assets.

令人驚訝的是，過去一個月，比特幣的表現勝過黃金和標普 500 指數，這得益於穩定的需求以及更廣泛的資金流入，以分散投資到不同資產。

Apparently futures have already been negative for the last 14 consecutive days, which is the longest streak since 2022.

顯然，期貨已經連續 14 天呈現負值，這是自 2022 年以來最長的一次。

And when this happens, it usually coincides with bottoms.

而當這種情況發生時，通常會伴隨著底部出現。

On top of that, long term holders dramatically reduced their selling throughout February, suggesting that we might actually see a lot more stability from this point on.

更重要的是，長期持有者在整個二月份大幅減少了他們的賣出，這表明我們從現在開始可能會看到更多的穩定性。

Although in terms of what this means for housing prices, the global economy, and

雖然就這對房價、全球經濟以及

what the Federal Reserve just said as of a few hours ago, here's what you came for.

美國聯邦準備理事會幾小時前剛說了什麼而言，重點來了。

Because most people have absolutely no idea what's about to happen.

因為大多數人根本不知道接下來會發生什麼事。

Although before we go into that, I gotta say, one of the most important rules of investing that everyone needs to be made aware of is to never put all of your eggs in one basket.

不過在我們深入探討之前，我必須說，投資最重要的規則之一，就是絕對不要把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡。

Like for the longest time, I had a huge portion of my net worth tied up in real estate and it worked really well until eventually it didn't.

像是很長一段時間，我大部分的淨資產都壓在房地產上，而且效果很好，直到有一天不再是這樣。

And when that happens, the smartest thing that you could do is diversify.

而當那種情況發生時，你能做的最聰明的事就是分散風險。

This is why I've been paying a lot of attention lately to stocks, cryptocurrency, ETFs and treasuries.

這也是為什麼我最近一直密切關注股票、加密貨幣、ETF 和債券。

Because the goal is not to bet everything on one investment, but to build flexibility.

因為目標不是把所有賭注都押在一個投資上，而是建立彈性。

And that's one of the reasons I've been using today's sponsor, the Gemini credit card, all the time.

這也是我一直都在使用今天的贊助商 Gemini 信用卡的原因之一。

With this, instead of earning airline points or credit card rewards that largely go unused, I'm able to earn cryptocurrency back on my everyday purchases, turning my spending into something that has the potential to grow over time.

有了它，我不用再賺取那些大多用不到的航空里程或信用卡回饋，我可以在日常消費中賺取加密貨幣回饋，讓我的消費有潛力隨著時間增長。

Or in this case, I'm able to get up to 4% back on transportation, 3% back on dining, 2% on groceries, and

或者在這個例子中，我可以從交通費中獲得高達 4% 的回饋，餐飲 3%，食品雜貨 2%，

1% on everything else with no annual fee.

以及其他所有消費 1% 的回饋，而且沒有年費。