Name: 薩克斯：美國和以色列低估了伊朗！ (Jeffrey Sachs: US and Israel underestimated Iran)
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T15:45:44.000Z
Duration: 17 min 43 s

程度副詞

Jeffrey, we have just heard from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei.

傑佛瑞，我們剛聽到了伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉．穆罕默德．哈米尼的發言。

基礎被動語態

His statement was the first since he was elected by the assembly of Experts.

這是他被專家會議選出後的第一份聲明。

這份聲明是在伊朗電視臺上播出的。

He called for unity among Iranians and he said the martyrs will be avenged.

他呼籲伊朗人團結，並表示烈士們將會被復仇。

And he also called on all US Bases in the Persian Gulf to be closed immediately or they will continue to be attacked.

他也呼籲波斯灣內所有的美國基地立即關閉，否則將持續遭受攻擊。

He said the Straits of Hormuz, that vital sea route, will, will remain closed.

他說，那條重要的海上航道荷姆茲海峽將會持續關閉。

看來他採取了非常強硬的路線。

Not in the mood for any kind of compromise or negotiation.

Given that, where do you see this heading?

考量到這一點，你認為這會走向何方？

Both times it was bombed by Israel and the United States.

Iran is under a absolutely brutal attack.

伊朗正遭受著絕對殘酷的攻擊。

The US And Israel are destroying infrastructure.

美國和以色列正在摧毀基礎設施。

They murdered this man's father and the leaders of the Iranian government.

他們殺害了這個人的父親和伊朗政府的領導人。

This is a brutal war of aggression by Israel and the United States.

這是以色列和美國發動的一場殘酷的侵略戰爭。

And Iran is responding, and it's not surprising that, that they are responding.

而伊朗正在反擊，他們反擊並不令人意外。

They're under threat of conquest, basically.

他們基本上是面臨被征服的威脅。

That was what Trump said, that he would pick the new leader, that Israel and the United States would run Iran.

川普當時是這麼說的，他說他會挑選新的領導人，讓以色列和美國來管理伊朗。

Well, the Iranian people have a different view.

Clearly they're showing up by the millions to say that they don't want to be run by the United States and Israel.

他們顯然有數百萬人站出來，表示他們不想被美國和以色列統治。

And President Trump is also claiming that the United States has won this war.

川普總統也宣稱美國贏得了這場戰爭。

Yet we see the missile attacks continue, by Iran, by Israel, by the United States.

然而，我們看到飛彈攻擊仍在持續，來自伊朗、以色列和美國。

I mean, do you envision any scenario in which the United States can declare victory when we don't even know what its objective is?

我的意思是，你認為美國有可能在連目標都不知道是什麼的情況下宣佈勝利嗎？

Well, yes, I see a scenario where they can declare victory.

嗯，是的，我看到一種他們可以宣佈勝利的可能情況。

So he says things for the immediate moment or for show or because he believes them.

他是為了當下、為了做表面工夫，或是因為他自己相信，才會這麼說。

我們永遠無法百分之百確定是哪一種。

But is there a way to real victory by the United States?

但美國有可能贏得真正的勝利嗎？

This is a disaster for the United States.

It is a disaster, disaster for the whole world.

這對全世界來說，是一場大災難。

The US And Israel have thrown the entire world into turmoil, perhaps into World War Three.

美國和以色列把全世界都捲入了混亂，甚至可能引發第三次世界大戰。

This was a brazen, violent, ill thought out, to say the least move by these two countries.

這兩個國家這次的舉動，說好聽點，也是一次大膽、暴力、欠缺深思熟慮的行動。

And now we're all suffering the consequences of this.

而現在，我們都得承受這一切的後果。

你說我們可能會陷入第三次世界大戰。

There are already more than a dozen countries involved in this conflict, most of them in the Persian Gulf.

已經有十幾個國家捲入這場衝突，其中大部分在波斯灣。

Do you see it expand to other parts of the world as well?

你覺得這會擴散到世界的其他地方嗎？

Well, the United States is at war in many places, it is at war in the Western Hemisphere.

嗯，美國在很多地方都在打仗，在西半球也在打仗。

It's talking openly about invading Cuba, which it's currently blockading.

他們公開談論要入侵古巴，而古巴目前正受到封鎖。

Trump just met with Latin American leaders and talked about other military operations in the Western Hemisphere.

川普剛跟拉美領導人會面，談論在西半球的其他軍事行動。

Trump has threatened to invade Greenland.

The United States is still heavily engaged in war with Russia in Ukraine.

美國在烏克蘭仍在與俄羅斯激烈交戰。

We have war spreading through the Middle East.

我們看到戰爭正在中東地區蔓延。

We have the war of Pakistan and Afghanistan taking place, we don't know.

巴基斯坦和阿富汗正在交戰，我們不知道。

But it could be that when we look back, even in weeks or months, we say, yes, World War 3 has started.

但回頭看，也許幾週或幾個月後，我們會說，沒錯，第三次世界大戰已經開始了。

The United States is so reckless, so irresponsible, and

美國如此魯莽、如此不負責任，

led by such a delusional president right now that I'm sorry to say that anything is possible.

而且現在由一位如此脫離現實的總統領導，我只能說，任何事情都有可能發生。

There are more than 1500 Iranians who have been killed in this conflict so far.

在這場衝突中，已有超過1500名伊朗人喪生。

But we are also facing another crisis that is an energy crisis.

但我們也面臨另一個危機，那就是能源危機。

The world is facing an energy crisis right now.

Energy experts say the full impact of this is yet to come.

能源專家表示，這場危機的全面影響尚未顯現。

And we've just heard from the International Energy Agency, which says that this is the worst energy supply disruption in history.

國際能源署（IEA）剛發布消息，表示這是史上最嚴重的能源供應中斷。

How will this affect and impact the global economy?

The way it's going this year will be an economic catastrophe if this continues, and

如果情況持續下去，今年的經濟將是一場災難，

We know that there are massive disruptions of oil supply.

我們知道石油供應出現了嚴重的混亂。

That's the point that the International Energy Agency just made.

這正是國際能源署剛才指出的重點。

We know that only selective tankers are passing through the Strait of Hormuzdos that Iran is allowing to pass through for China and reportedly for India.

我們知道只有部分油輪能通過荷姆茲海峽，這是伊朗允許運往中國，據報也運往印度的。

But we know that there is a dramatic decline in availability of both natural gas and oil.

但我們知道，天然氣和石油的供應量都大幅下降。

And history has shown, especially in the 1970s, when there were two such oil supply disruptions, that the consequences for the world economy are extremely severe, sharp, and

歷史告訴我們，尤其是在1970年代，曾發生過兩次類似的石油供應中斷，對世界經濟的影響極其嚴重、劇烈，

So I think we're in for a very, very significant global crisis brought to you by Israel and the United States.

所以我認為，這將是一場由以色列和美國帶來的、非常非常嚴重的全球危機。

some call it an asymmetric strategy, is to hit US Persian Gulf allies, many of which host United States bases.

有些人稱之為不對稱策略，就是攻擊美國在波斯灣的盟友，其中許多都設有美國基地。

Of course, Iran is hurting their economies by targeting their oil supplies and oil infrastructure.

當然，伊朗透過攻擊他們的石油供應和基礎設施來損害這些國家的經濟。

It's also targeting vital energy industries.

它也正在攻擊重要的能源產業。

What do you make of this strategy by Iran and its effectiveness?

你怎麼看伊朗的這項策略以及它的有效性？

Well, Iran has been hit repeatedly by the United States and Israel actually for decades.

嗯，事實上，伊朗幾十年來一直遭到美國和以色列的打擊。

We can go back to 1953, when the United States deposed a democratically elected prime minister and brought in a police state for several decades.

我們可以回溯到1953年，當時美國推翻了一位民選總理，並建立了一個長達數十年的警察國家。

We can go to the war that the United States supported against Iran by Iraq in the 1980s, we can go to a long list of assassinations by Mossad and the CIA in recent years.

我們可以看看美國在1980年代支持伊拉克對抗伊朗的戰爭，我們可以列舉近年來以色列摩薩德和中央情報局進行的一長串暗殺行動。

What Iran is saying is we are under attack.

伊朗想說的是，我們正遭受攻擊。

And the countries in the Gulf, by hosting the enemy of our country that is trying to destroy us, are part of this war against us.

而海灣國家，因為接待試圖摧毀我們的敵人，所以也捲入了這場對我們的戰爭。

the new Supreme Leader has said, that this is not a war against the neighbors.

新的最高領袖說了，這不是一場對抗鄰國的戰爭。

It is a war against the United States, which is trying to destroy Iran.

這是一場對抗美國的戰爭，美國正試圖摧毀伊朗。

And just listen to any of the words of Trump or Netanyahu.

你只要聽聽川普或納坦雅胡說的任何話。

Who will run Iran, Trump or the Iranians?

誰會統治伊朗，是川普還是伊朗人民？

So from the Iranian position, this is existential.

所以從伊朗的立場來看，這是生死存亡的問題。

如果全世界都站出來告訴川普，回家去吧，你不能決定最高領袖，然後告訴納坦雅胡，安分守己。

Trump, Go home, you're not going to pick the Supreme Leader and said to Netanyahu, live within your borders.

這將有助於我們度過這個非常、非常嚴峻的危機。

It would help us to get past this very, very dire crisis.

以色列總理班傑明·納坦雅胡和川普總統，在多大程度上低估了伊朗軍隊？

To what extent did both the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as President Trump underestimate the Iranian military?

不僅是戰場上的效能，還有他們採用的策略。

Not just its battlefield effectiveness, but also the strategies that it is using.

他們正與兩個國家對抗，這場衝突中的兩個國家都擁有核武，而且軍力遠遠佔優。

It is taking on two countries, both nuclear armed countries in this conflict, vastly superior military forces.

在我這輩子，從越南戰爭開始，美國就一再低估它的對手。

The United States, during my entire lifetime, which is getting on, has underestimated its adversaries.

美國一再宣稱幾天或幾週內就能獲勝，結果戰爭卻拖了數年甚至數十年。

From Vietnam onward, the United States repeatedly has declared victory in days or weeks, only to find that the wars extended years or decades, with the United States crawling back home afterwards, having failed in all of its stated objectives and having squandered trillions of dollars and cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

最後美國灰溜溜地撤回家，所有宣稱的目標都失敗了，還浪費了數兆美元，犧牲了數十萬人的生命。