Name: 米爾斯海默：一旦與伊朗開戰陷入泥沼，美國註定失敗！ (Mearsheimer: Once war with Iran drags on, the US is destined to lose)
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T15:41:03.000Z
Duration: 4 min 11 s

We're now talking about a protracted war.

我們現在要聊的是一場曠日持久的戰爭。

我們現在要聊的是一場長期的戰爭。

And in this long war, the United States is going to be at a significant disadvantage.

在這場長期戰爭中，美國會處於明顯的劣勢。

It's very important to understand that once Iran withstands the initial attacks and the war gets drawn out, Iran is in a much stronger position than the United States and Israel, because all Iran has to do to win this war is to survive and at the same time continue to inflict punishment on Israel, the United States and its allies in the Arab world, and

瞭解這一點非常重要，一旦伊朗承受住了最初的攻擊，戰爭變得曠日持久，伊朗就比美國和以色列處於更有利的位置，因為伊朗贏得這場戰爭的關鍵就是生存，同時持續對以色列、美國以及阿拉伯世界的盟友施加懲罰，

to continue to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and cause great pain not only in the Middle east, but

並持續關閉荷姆茲海峽，這不僅在中東地區，

在全世界都會造成巨大的痛苦。

So the fact that the United States was unable to win a quick and decisive victory tells you that the United States is in trouble.

所以，美國無法快速取得決定性勝利的事實，就告訴你美國陷入了麻煩。

As this war settles into a protracted war, there's no way that Iran can defeat the United States military in a fight.

隨著這場戰爭演變成一場曠日持久的戰爭，伊朗不可能在戰鬥中擊敗美國軍隊。

The United States won every battle in the Vietnam War.

美國贏得了越戰中的每一場戰役。

There was no way the North Vietnamese and the Viet Cong could engage the American military and win a victory on the battlefield.

北越和越共根本不可能跟美軍交戰並在戰場上獲勝。

The United States, as I said, always won the battles, but the United States lost the war.

就像我說的，美國總是贏得每一場戰役，但美國卻輸掉了整場戰爭。

And the same thing, by the way, was true in Afghanistan.

順帶一提，阿富汗的情況也是一樣。

Nobody would deny that the United States was infinitely more powerful than the Taliban, but

沒有人會否認美國比神學士（Taliban）強大無數倍，但是

And by the way, the Soviet Union had the same experience in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989.

順帶一提，蘇聯在1979年到1989年間，在阿富汗也有相同的經驗。

So what you're going to see happen in the Middle east is that the United States will inflict massive pain on Iran, but

所以，在中東你會看到美國會對伊朗造成巨大的痛苦，但是

it will not be able to win the war in the long term because it will not be able to overthrow the existing regime, number one.

從長遠來看，美國無法贏得這場戰爭，因為他們無法推翻現有的政權，第一點。

And number two, replace it with a regime that is subservient to the United States and to Israel.

還有第二點，就是換上一個聽命於美國和以色列的政權。

It's just very important to understand that you cannot get Iran to give up its ballistic missiles, to stop its nuclear enrichment program, and

所以，你沒辦法讓伊朗放棄彈道飛彈、停止核子濃縮計畫，

to stop supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah, and, and Hamas.

以及停止支持胡塞武裝、真主黨和哈瑪斯。

Unless you have a regime in place in Tehran that is subservient to the United States and Israel.

除非德黑蘭有一個聽命於美國和以色列的政權。

And if you look at how this war has started and how it's likely to play out, it's hard to see how the United States is going to get a regime in Tehran that will do what the Americans want and indeed, as the United States and the Israelis, and

而且如果你看看這場戰爭是如何開始的，以及它可能會如何發展，很難想像美國要如何在德黑蘭扶植一個會照美國意思辦事的政權，而且，美國和以色列，

That will cause the Iranian people to rally around the regime, to support the regime, and

這會讓伊朗人民團結在政權周圍，支持政權，

to hate the Americans and to hate the Israelis and not want to see a regime in place that accommodates American and Israeli interests.

並且憎恨美國人和以色列人，而且不希望看到一個順應美國和以色列利益的政權。

So this serious bombing campaign that we're now engaged in was where we're killing large numbers of Iranian civilians, does not facilitate regime change, it hinders regime change.

所以，我們現在正在進行的這場嚴重的轟炸行動，殺害了大量的伊朗平民，這並沒有促進政權更迭，反而阻礙了政權更迭。