Name: 關於人工智慧的深度剖析！ (On Artificial Intelligence)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T05:45:15.000Z
Duration: 52 min 6 s

你現在聽到的是 Naval 的 Podcast。

For the first time in recorded history, we are not at the same location.

這是史上第一次，我們不在同一個地方。

I am actually walking around town and Naval might be doing the same.

我其實正在鎮上散步，Naval 可能也在做一樣的事。

So there might be some ambient noise, but

所以可能會有一些環境噪音，但是

we are going to try hard to remove that with AI and some good audio engineering.

我們會盡量用 AI 和一些很棒的音訊工程來去除它。

Podcast recording is so stilted because it's like you have to sit down, you schedule something and this giant mic pointing in your face.

Podcast 錄音總是這麼生硬，因為你得坐著，安排時間，然後一個大麥克風對著你。

And it's not casual, it makes it just less authentic, more practiced, more rehearsed.

這樣一點都不隨興，反而讓它比較不真實，更像在練習、在排練。

I get that it produces maybe higher quality audio and video, but

我明白這樣做可能會產生更高品質的音訊和影像，但是

I feel like it produces lower quality conversation.

我覺得這樣反而會產生比較低品質的對話。

And we all know brains run better when they're being locomoted and you're moving around or just going for walks.

而且我們都知道，當大腦在活動、在移動或只是散步的時候，運轉會更好。

I pulled out some tweets from Naval on the topic of AI.

我從 Naval 那裡找了一些關於 AI 的推文。

We want to talk a little bit about AI and hopefully talk about it in a more timeless manner, but

我們想稍微聊聊 AI，希望能用一種更永恆的方式來談論它，但是

I think some of it's going to be non timeless content.

我覺得其中有些內容可能不會那麼永恆。

Before we jump into the tweets, do you want to say anything about what you're doing with your time or what you're doing at Impossible?

在我們開始看推文之前，你想說說你最近在做什麼，或者在 Impossible 都在忙些什麼嗎？

We're working on a very difficult project.

我們正在進行一個非常艱難的專案。

這就是為什麼它叫做 Impossible。

With an amazing team and it's really exciting building something again.

有一個很棒的團隊，再次從頭開始建立東西真的很令人興奮。

It's very pure, starting over from the bottom.

I guess I just wasn't satisfied being an investor.

我想我就是對當投資人感到不滿足。

And I certainly don't want to be a philosopher or just a media personality or a commentator, because I think people would just talk too much and don't do anything.

我當然不想當個鍵盤哲學家，或是隻是一個媒體名人或評論員，因為我覺得人們只會說太多卻不做任何事。

They haven't encountered reality, they haven't gotten feedback, the harsh feedback from free markets or from physics of nature.

他們沒有遇到現實，沒有得到自由市場或自然物理學的嚴厲回饋。

And so after a while, it ends up becoming just too much armchair philosophy.

所以過一段時間，它就變成太多的鍵盤哲學了。

You probably have noticed my recent tweets have been much more practical and pragmatic, although there's still occasional ethereal or generic ones.

你可能已經注意到我最近的推文更實際、更務實了，雖然偶爾還是會有飄渺或籠統的。

But it's more grounded in the reality of working every day.

但它更紮根於每天工作的現實。

And I just like working with a great team to create something that I want to see exist.

我就是喜歡和一個很棒的團隊一起創造我希望看到的東西。

So hopefully we'll create something that will come to fruition and people will say, wow, that's great, I want that also.

所以希望我們能創造出一些能開花結果，讓大家說「哇，太棒了，我也想要那個」的東西。

Or maybe not, but it's in the doing that you learn.

或者可能不會，但就是在做的過程中你會學到東西。

So I pulled out a tweet from a couple days ago.

所以，我拿出幾天前的一則推文。

Vibe coding is the new product management.

Training and tuning models is the new coding.

There's been a shift market pronouncement in the last year and especially in the last few months, most pronounced by Claude code, which is a specific model that has a coding engine in it, which is so good that I think now you have VIME coders, which are people who didn't really code much or hadn't coded in a long time, who are using essentially English as a programming language as an input into this code bot, which can do end to end coding instead of just helping you debug things at the middle.

過去一年，尤其是在過去幾個月，市場上出現了轉變，這在 Claude code 中最為明顯，Claude code 是一個內建編碼引擎的特定模型。它非常厲害，我認為現在有 VIME 編碼者，也就是那些以前不太編碼或很久沒編碼的人，他們實際上是把英文當作程式語言，輸入到這個程式機器人裡，它能從頭到尾完成編碼，而不只是協助你除錯。

You can describe an application that you want, you can have it lay out a plan, you can have it interview you for the plan, you can give it feedback along the way, and

你可以描述你想要的應用程式，它可以制定計畫，可以為計畫面試你，你可以在過程中給予回饋，然後

then it'll chunk it up and it'll build all the scaffolding, it'll download all the libraries and all the connectors and all the hooks, and

它會將其分塊，建立所有框架，下載所有函式庫、所有連接器和所有掛鉤，然後

it'll start building your app and building test harnesses and testing it.

它會開始建置你的應用程式，建置測試框架並進行測試。

And you can keep giving it feedback and debugging it by voice, saying, this doesn't work, that works.

你還可以透過語音不斷給予它回饋和除錯，說「這個不行」、「那個可以」。

have it build you an entire working application without your having written a single line of code.

讓它為你建置一個完整的應用程式，而你不用寫一行程式碼。

For a large group of people who either don't code anymore or never did, this is mind blowing.

對一大群人來說，這些人不是不再編碼，就是從未編過碼，這真的太令人驚豔了。

This is taking them from idea space and opinion space and from taste directly into product.

這將他們從想法和意見空間，以及品味，直接帶入產品。

So vibe coding is the new product management.

所以 vibe coding 就是新的產品管理。

Instead of trying to manage a product or a bunch of engineers by telling them what to do, you're not telling computer what to do.

與其透過告訴工程師該做什麼來管理產品或一群工程師，你不是在告訴電腦該做什麼。

The computer is egoless and it'll just keep working.

電腦是沒有自我的，它會一直工作。

It'll take feedback without getting offended.

You can spin up multiple instances, it'll work 24, 7 and you can have it produce working output.

你可以啟動多個實例，它會 24/7 運作，而且能產出可用的輸出。

Just like now, anybody can make a video, or anyone can make a podcast.

就像現在一樣，任何人都可以製作影片，或是任何人都可以製作 Podcast。

現在任何人都可以製作應用程式。

So we should expect to see a tsunami of applications.

所以我們應該會看到一波應用程式的浪潮。

Not that we don't have one already in the app Store, but

並不是說 App Store 裡沒有，而是

it doesn't even begin to compare to what we're going to see.

這跟我們接下來要看到的相比，根本不值一提。

However, when you start drowning in these applications, does that necessarily mean that these are all going to get used?

然而，當你開始被這些應用程式淹沒時，這是否意味著它們都會被使用呢？

I think it's going to break into two kinds of things.

First, the best application for a given use case still tends to win the entire category.

首先，針對特定用途的最佳應用程式，通常會贏得整個類別。

When you have such a multiplicity of content, whether in videos or audio or music or applications, there's no demand for average.

當你有這麼多樣的內容時，無論是影片、音訊、音樂或應用程式，對平均水準的需求就會消失。

People want the best thing that does the job.

人們想要的是能把事情做好、最棒的那個。

So first of all, you just have more shots on goals.

所以首先，你的目標機會就更多了。

There will be a lot more niches getting filled.

You might have worn an application for a very specific thing like tracking lunar phases in a certain context, or a certain kind of personality test, or a very specific kind of video game that made you nostalgic for something.

你可能會用一個應用程式來做非常特定的事情，像是追蹤特定情境下的月相，或是某種人格測驗，又或是某種讓你懷念過去的特定電子遊戲。

Before, the market just wasn't large enough to justify the cost of an engineer coding away for a year or two.

以前，市場規模不足以支撐工程師花一兩年時間編碼的成本。

But now the best vibe coding app might be enough to scratch that itch or fill that slot.

但現在，最棒的氛圍編碼應用程式可能就足以滿足這種需求或填補這個空缺。

所以會有更多的小眾市場被填補。

而且隨著這樣發展，整體都會跟著提升。

The best applications, those engineers themselves are going to be much more leveraged.

最棒的應用程式，工程師本身也會更有槓桿作用。

They'll be able to add more features, fix more bugs, smooth out more of the edges.

他們將能加入更多功能、修正更多錯誤、打磨更多細節。

So the best applications will continue to get better.

所以最棒的應用程式會持續變得更好。

And even individual niches, such as you want an app that's just for your own very specific health tracking needs, or for your own very specific architecture, layout or design.

甚至個別的小眾市場，像是你想要一個專門針對你個人非常特定的健康追蹤需求，或是你個人非常特定的建築、佈局或設計的應用程式。

That app that could have never existed will now exist.

那個以前不可能存在的應用程式，現在就會出現了。

We should expect, just like on the Internet, what's happened with Amazon, where you replaced a bunch of bookstores with one super bookstore and a zillion long tail sellers.

我們應該可以預期，就像網際網路上的亞馬遜一樣，取代了很多書店，變成一家超級書店和數不清的長尾賣家。

Or YouTube replaced a bunch of medium sized TV stations and broadcast networks with one giant aggregator called YouTube, or maybe a second one called Netflix, and

或是 YouTube 取代了很多中型的電視臺和廣播網路，變成一個叫做 YouTube 的超級整合平臺，又或者另一個叫做 Netflix 的平臺，而

then a whole long tail of content producers.

So the same way the app store model will become even more extreme, where you will have one or two giant app stores helping you filter through all of the AI slop apps out there.

所以，App Store 的模式會變得更加極端，你會有一兩個巨大的 App Store，幫助你過濾掉市面上所有 AI 的雜訊 App。

And then at the very head, there'll be a few huge apps that will become even bigger because now they can address a lot more use cases or just be a lot more polished.

而在最頂端，會有幾個巨大的 App 會變得更大，因為它們現在可以處理更多用例，或者變得更加完善。

And then there'll be a long tail of tiny little apps filling every niche imaginable.

然後會有大量微小的 App 出現，填補各種你能想像到的細分市場。

As the Internet reminds us, the real power and wealth, super wealth, goes to the aggregator.

就像網路提醒我們的一樣，真正的權力和財富，超級財富，都流向了聚合者。

But there's also a huge distribution of resources into the long tail.

但資源也會大量地分散到長尾市場。

It's the medium sized firms that get blown apart.

The five 10, 20 person software companies that we're filling a niche for.

那些五人、十人、二十人的軟體公司，我們為他們填補了一個利基市場。

An enterprise use case that can now be either vibe coded away, or the lead app in the space can now encompass that use case.

一個企業的用例，現在可以透過 vibe coding 來解決，或者該領域的領導 App 現在可以包含該用例。

So if anyone can code, then what is coding?

所以，如果人人都能編碼，那編碼是什麼？

Coding still exists in a couple of areas.

The most obvious place that coding exists is in training these models themselves.

編碼最明顯的用途，就是用來訓練這些模型本身。

There are many different kinds of models.

There are different ones for different domains.

We're going to see different models for biology or programming, we're going to see pointed focus models.

我們會看到生物學或程式設計的專用模型，我們會看到專注於特定領域的模型。

For sensors, we're going to see models for CAD, for design, we're going to see models for 3D and graphics and games, models for video.

對於感測器，我們會看到 CAD 的模型，用於設計，我們會看到 3D 和圖形與遊戲的模型，還有影片的模型。

You're going to see many different kinds of models.

你會看到很多不同類型的模型。

The people who are creating these models are essentially programming them, but

創造這些模型的人，基本上就是在編寫程式，但

they're programmed in a very different way than classic computers.

他們的編寫方式跟傳統電腦很不一樣。

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關於人工智慧的深度剖析！ (On Artificial Intelligence)

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