Name: 重磅消息！政府又一次出手救市了？ (It's Official: The Government Is Bailing Out The Stock Market (Again))
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T18:07:41.000Z
Duration: 12 min 19 s

程度副詞

The US government just bailed out OpenAI because OpenAI is running out of money.

美國政府剛金援 OpenAI，因為 OpenAI 快沒錢了。

It seems like we're at the final stage of the AI bubble, and

看起來我們正處於 AI bubble 的最後階段，

the AI bubble is about to completely collapse.

And since OpenAI is literally the face of AI industry, if OpenAI is struggling financially, then what do you think is happening to the rest of the industry?

而且 OpenAI 根本就是 AI 產業的門面，如果 OpenAI 財務吃緊，你覺得其他產業會怎麼樣？

I kind of think of ads as like a last resort for us, for a business model.

我覺得廣告對我們來說，就像是 business model 的最後手段。

I would do it if it meant that was the only way to get everybody on the world, in the world, like access to great services.

如果這是讓全世界每個人都能使用很棒服務的唯一方法，我會這麼做。

But if we can find something that doesn't do that, I'd prefer that.

但如果我們能找到不用這樣做的方法，我會比較 prefer 那樣。

He literally said last year that ads are going to be the last resort.

他去年就說過，廣告會是最後的手段。

And if we are going to introduce them, that means that we're completely desperate.

而如果我們要導入廣告，那就代表我們真的非常絕望。

OpenAI has already started testing ads, but

most importantly, they even started introducing adult content, like how desperate you have to be to do something like that.

更重要的是，他們甚至開始導入成人內容，你得有多絕望才會做這種事。

The second part of the problem is that they have just signed a deal with the US Government after the United States has ditched Anthropic, because they know that this is how they ensure that the US Government is going to bail them out some level when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort, as we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up.

問題的第二部分是，他們在美國政府拋棄 Anthropic 後，就和美國政府簽了約，因為他們知道這樣就能確保美國政府在某種程度上會救他們，不管他們在不在名單上，聯邦政府就像是最後的保險公司，就像我們在各種金融危機和保險公司搞砸事情時看到的。

So I guess given the magnitude of what I expect AI economic impact to look like, sort of, I do think the government ends up as like the insurer of last resort.

所以我想，考慮到我預期 AI 經濟影響的規模，我認為政府最終會成為最後的保險公司。

Sam Altman knew since the beginning that this is turning into a bubble.

Sam Altman 從一開始就知道這正在變成一個 AI bubble。

And just like the US government has bailed out the US banking and the insurance industry, the US government will be bailing out the entire AI industry.

就像美國政府救了美國的銀行和保險業一樣，美國政府也會救整個 AI 產業。

Now, in early 2000, the US government has loosened regulations for people to get mortgages.

現在，在 2000 年初，美國政府放寬了人們申請房貸的規定。

They know that this can turn into a bubble.

他們知道這可能會變成一個 AI bubble。

So before selling a mortgage or for every mortgage that they have sold, they have insured it.

所以在賣出房貸之前，或是他們賣出的每一筆房貸，他們都有做保險。

Insurance companies were confident that house prices are never going to collapse.

保險公司很有信心，房價永遠不會崩盤。

So they basically sold that insurance for every single mortgage.

所以他們基本上是為每一筆房貸都賣出了保險。

Worst case scenario, that house will be sold even at a small loss.

最糟的情況下，房子就算小賠賣掉。

But that is not going to lead to a catastrophic crash in housing prices.

但這不會導致房價災難性崩盤。

They began loaning and giving mortgages to whoever wanted a mortgage.

他們開始放款，給任何想要房貸的人。

People started buying one house, second house, third house, fourth house.

人們開始買一間房、第二間房、第三間房、第四間房。

At some points, people have purchased houses that they cannot possibly afford and they began defaulting.

有些時候，人們買了根本買不起的房子，然後開始違約。

Now, the banking sector didn't care much because they knew that every single mortgage is being insured.

現在，銀行業並不太在意，因為他們知道每一筆抵押貸款都有保險。

So when house prices began collapsing, the banking sector went to the insurance companies and told them, we have purchased insurances and now you have to pay us.

所以當房價開始崩跌時，銀行業就去找保險公司，跟他們說，我們買了保險，現在你們必須付錢給我們。

But then insurance companies realized that we have sold far more insurances than we can possibly afford, which is why the entire insurance industry went down.

但這時保險公司才發現，他們賣出的保險遠遠超過他們能負擔的範圍，這也是為什麼整個保險業都垮了。

And then that burden was on the shoulders of the banking industry and they knew that they don't have enough money to bail themselves out, which is why the housing bubble turned into a banking crisis.

然後這個重擔就落到了銀行業的肩上，他們知道自己沒有足夠的錢來挽救自己，這也是為什麼房地產保麗龍會變成銀行危機。

Now, that happened because the entire market has spent so much money on houses that house prices were inflated more than they worth.

現在，這會發生是因為整個市場在房子上花了太多錢，導致房價膨脹到超過其實際價值。

Now, it doesn't mean that house prices will never rise to that point, but

現在，這並不代表房價永遠不會漲到那個程度，但是

when you spend so much money on a single asset and you create artificial demand, there is going to be a spike in prices in the short run, but

當你花這麼多錢在單一資產上，並且創造了人為需求，短期內價格一定會飆升，但是

because investors want a return on their money.

And if you are an early investor and you realize that now the price of your investment has doubled or tripled in such a short period of time, you start pulling off and that means that prices will start crashing, taking down the entire market.

如果你是早期投資者，並且發現你的投資價格在這麼短的時間內翻倍或三倍，你就會開始退出，這意味著價格將開始崩盤，並拖垮整個市場。

So the US government had to step in and bail out the entire insurance industry and the entire banking sector.

所以美國政府不得不介入，挽救了整個保險業和整個銀行業。

Now, Sam Altman is basically comparing the AI bubble to the housing bubble and saying that we, well, if the US government bailed out the housing market, why can't the government bail out the entire AI industry?

現在，Sam Altman 基本上是在把 AI bubble 跟房地產保麗龍做比較，他說我們，嗯，如果美國政府救了房地產市場，為什麼政府不能救整個 AI 產業？

And it seems like that is exactly what is happening.

而且看起來這正是正在發生的事。

You see, AI or ChatGPT in particular, has a huge problem.

你看，AI 或 ChatGPT 特別有很大的問題。

For every dollar of revenue that they are earning, they're spending about 7.$7.

他們每賺一塊錢的收入，就要花掉大約 7.7 元。

So by looking at this, you can already see that the math is not adding up.

所以從這裡你就可以看出，這個數學算不出來。

The question is that when exactly the company is going to break even?

問題是公司到底什麼時候才會損益兩平？

It might be three years from now, five years from now, 10 years from now.

可能是三年後，五年後，十年後。

Now, last year they made almost $20 billion, but they spent far more than that.

去年他們賺了將近 200 億美元，但他們花的錢遠遠超過這個數。

And according to every estimate that we have, most likely OpenAI, in the best case scenario, is going to break even by 2029, maybe 2030.

而且根據我們所有的估計，最有可能 OpenAI，在最好的情況下，會在 2029 年或 2030 年損益兩平。

And if investors start pulling out, then all those hundreds of billions of dollars in investments will pop like a bubble and it could take down the entire market.

如果投資人開始撤資，那麼數千億美元的投資就會像 AI bubble 一樣破滅，可能會拖垮整個市場。

the vast majority of people who are using OpenAI are not actually paying anything.

絕大多數使用 OpenAI 的人其實都沒有付費。

And that's why, despite so many users of ChatGPT.

這也是為什麼，儘管有這麼多 ChatGPT 的用戶。

ChatGPT is not making money or whatsoever.

And if they turn the entire model into a subscription, then people are simply going to start using alternative services.

如果他們把整個模型都變成訂閱制，大家就會開始轉向使用其他服務。

And that might be the end of ChatGPT, which is why the company is forced to offer these services completely for free, even though that they're losing massive amounts of money.

這可能會是 ChatGPT 的終結，這也是為什麼公司被迫提供這些服務完全免費，儘管他們正在虧損大量的金錢。

The only companies that can afford that are companies such as Google.

只有像 Google 這樣的公司才負擔得起。

Google last year made over $400 billion in revenue and over $100 billion in profit.

Google 去年營收超過 4000 億美元，獲利超過 1000 億美元。

So they can keep burning money, dominating and monopolizing the entire AI industry.

所以他們可以持續燒錢，壟斷整個 AI 產業。

But ChatGPT on the other side, has no other option.

但 ChatGPT 另一方面，別無選擇。

現在，你可能會說，看看 OpenAI。

But there is a problem with that $110 billion investment deal.

但這 1100 億美元的投資案有個問題。

Now, first of all, $50 billion of that is going to come from Amazon.

首先，其中 500 億美元將來自亞馬遜。

And Amazon is not going to give them $50 billion directly, but

而且亞馬遜不會直接給他們 500 億美元，而是

rather $15 billion is going to be upfront.

And the other $35 billion, there are going to be contingencies.

另外的 350 億美元，則會有附帶條件。

That means that when OpenAI is going to hit certain milestones, then they are going to get the money from Amazon.

這表示當 OpenAI 達成特定里程碑時，亞馬遜就會撥款給他們。

And one of the contingencies is that OpenAI should go public.

其中一個附帶條件是 OpenAI 必須公開上市。

Now, going public is extremely dangerous.

現在，公開上市是非常危險的。

That's because now you cannot be like a private company.

因為你不能再像一傢俬人公司一樣。

Now you have to share your financial statements.

Now you have to share your data with the rest of the public.

And if you're not going to hit your revenue targets, Wall street and investors will start massively dumping up your stock and your stock will be obliterated.

如果你達不到營收目標，華爾街和投資人就會開始大量拋售你的股票，你的股價就會崩盤。

So if you're not going to receive or achieve the milestones, you're not going to get $35 billion from Amazon.

所以，如果你沒有達到里程碑，你就拿不到亞馬遜的 350 億美元。

Part of the deal is that OpenAI should spend $100 billion buying computer powers from Amazon Web Services.

交易的一部分是 OpenAI 必須花費 1000 億美元向 Amazon Web Services 購買運算能力。

So Amazon is like spending $50 billion investing in OpenAI and taking a share in the business.

所以亞馬遜就像是投資了 500 億美元在 OpenAI 並取得部分股權。

And OpenAI has to spend $100 billion buying computer power from Amazon.

而 OpenAI 則必須花費 1000 億美元向亞馬遜購買運算能力。

It seems like a deal that you're only going to sign unless you're desperate.

這聽起來像是一份只有在走投無路時才會簽署的協議。

Another $30 billion is coming from Nvidia.

另外還有 300 億美元來自 Nvidia。

And that is also a really great deal for Nvidia, because there is also a contingency that most of that money will be spent buying computer chips from Nvidia.

這對 Nvidia 來說也是一筆非常划算的交易，因為其中大部分的錢都會用來購買 Nvidia 的晶片。

So basically, Nvidia is going to give OpenAI $30 billion so that OpenAI will use that money buying computer chips from Nvidia a really great deal for Nvidia if you ask me, it is going to increase the revenues for the company, driving higher their valuations.

所以基本上，Nvidia 會給 OpenAI 300 億美元，讓 OpenAI 用這筆錢購買 Nvidia 的晶片，這對 Nvidia 來說絕對是一筆好交易，能增加公司營收，推升股價。

And because there is so much demand for Nvidia computer chips, they are going to pay huge margins on them.

而且因為 Nvidia 的晶片需求量很大，他們可以從中獲得很高的利潤。

And finally, the last $30 billion is going to come from SoftBank.

最後，剩下的 300 億美元將來自軟銀。

And that will probably make SoftBank the largest single investor in OpenAI by owning 13% of the company.

這可能會讓軟銀成為 OpenAI 的最大單一投資者，持有公司 13% 的股份。

And because they are so desperate, they made a deal with the devil with the Department of War, with the US Government.

因為他們太急了，所以跟國防部、美國政府做了個與魔鬼的交易。

Now, Antropic was basically the company that was supplying the Department of War with AI services.

那時候，Antropic 基本上就是提供 AI 服務給國防部的公司。

But there was a huge problem between the Department of War and Antropic because the Department of War basically asked Antropic to use AI services to mass domestically survey the entire United States.

但國防部和 Antropic 之間有個很大的問題，因為國防部基本上要求 Antropic 使用 AI 服務來大規模地對整個美國進行國內調查。

And that means that your data will be used to survey you.

這意味著你的資料將會被用來調查你。

The US Government is going to use the entire AI models to basically survey the entire country.

美國政府將會使用整個 AI 模型來調查整個國家。

But Anthropic said, no, that is not going to happen.

但 Anthropic 說，不行，這不會發生。

The second thing that Department of War has asked is to use AI for fully autonomous weapons.

國防部提出的第二件事是使用 AI 來開發全自主武器。

And the CEO of Anthropic is like, listen, AI is great, but it is not 100% accurate.

而 Anthropic 的執行長說，聽著，AI 很棒，但它不是百分之百準確的。

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重磅消息！政府又一次出手救市了？ (It's Official: The Government Is Bailing Out The Stock Market (Again))

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