Name: 摩根大通戴蒙談伊朗戰爭、通膨與信用週期！ (JPMorgan's Dimon on Iran War, Inflation, Credit Cycles)
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T21:38:23.000Z
Duration: 14 min 52 s

I am here with somebody who does not need an introduction, Jamie Dimon, who is the CEO and chairman of JP Morgan.

我身邊這位，相信大家都不陌生，他是 JP Morgan 的執行長兼主席 Jamie Dimon。

to 不定詞

It's a really interesting day to have this.

今天能有這個機會，真的很有意思。

首先，今天的參與人數非常踴躍。

But the focus, at least in the news world, is very much in the geopolitics.

不過，至少在新聞界，大家關注的焦點都在地緣政治上。

And I'm wondering from your perspective, you talked about geopolitics for a long time.

我想聽聽您的看法，您談地緣政治已經很久了。

Are you surprised that the market has been so sanguine to any kind of response or any kind of geopolitical disruption?

您會不會驚訝，市場對於任何回應或地緣政治的幹擾，都這麼樂觀？

So one of our brilliant folks wrote a report years ago, Mike Semblance, that you look at all these wars around the world Since World War II, the market reacts, but

我們一位很聰明的同仁多年前寫了一份報告，Mike Semblance，他說你看自從第二次世界大戰以來，世界各地發生的所有戰爭，市場都會有反應，但是

it never had a real long term effect other than the Israeli conflict.

除了以色列衝突之外，其實沒有真正長期的影響。

Oil prices tripled and went on for an extended period of time in 1973.

1973年油價飆漲了三倍，而且持續了一段很長的時間。

所以世界就這樣順著自己的步伐前進。

但地緣政治確實是個主要問題。

It's much more complex today than it has been since World War II.

現在的情況比二次世界大戰以來都要複雜許多。

I'm talking about Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea are related with China and that could have an effect, but

我指的是烏克蘭、俄羅斯、伊朗、北韓和中國之間的關聯，這可能會產生影響，但

這些事情可能會隨著時間而減弱。

You know, this war with Iran, you know, if it is short and oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but

你知道，伊朗這場戰爭，如果時間很短，油價漲到80、90或100，但

it's a short time, not prolonged, it probably won't have a major effect if it becomes prolonged and all bets are off the table.

如果只是短暫的，不是長期的，那可能不會有重大影響；但如果長期持續下去，那一切就難說了。

Well, how offside would this market be if there were truly a stagflationary shock, given the fact that there seems to be comfort with the idea of disinflation right now?

嗯，如果真的出現停滯性通膨衝擊，考量到大家現在似乎對通貨緊縮的說法感到安心，這個市場會有多脫節呢？

Well, I think that's true, but I think that was true before this war.

嗯，我認為這是真的，但我覺得這在戰爭之前就已經是這樣了。

So if you look at, you know, my view is the price, asset price kind of high, credit pressure kind of low, it's kind of a lot of complacency in the market.

所以如果你看看，你知道，我的看法是價格，資產價格有點高，信貸壓力有點低，市場上有很多自滿的情緒。

You know, we look at risk, we look at the broad range of outcomes and there are negative outcomes, but

你知道，我們看風險，我們看各種結果，確實有負面結果，但

one of them would be, you know, inflation.

其中一個就是，你知道，通貨膨脹。

it seems to maybe have leveled off around 3% if things make it go up.

如果有什麼讓它上漲，它似乎在3%左右趨於平穩。

And this is only one thing, you know, you can look at medical prices, construction prices, insurance prices, wages for certain things, other things, you know, inflation is a big thing.

這只是一件事，你知道，你可以看看醫療價格、建築價格、保險價格、某些東西的工資，其他東西，你知道，通貨膨脹是一件大事。

所以，你知道，我們拭目以待。

Right now this will add a little bit, literally a teeny bit to inflation, a lot.

現在這會讓通貨膨脹，你知道，真的增加一點點，一點點，很多。

You know, I was surprised because things were kind of gloomy coming into today.

你知道，我有點驚訝，因為今天開始的時候，事情感覺有點灰暗。

And the mood here is not that actually there's a lot of optimism.

而且這裡的氣氛並不是那樣，實際上有很多樂觀情緒。

There are a lot of different companies that are building things and investing things.

有很多不同的公司正在建造東西、投資東西。

I mean, how vulnerable really is the US Economy right now to some sort of geopolitical shock?

我的意思是，美國經濟現在對某種地緣政治衝擊有多脆弱？

It may be the companies that start to lay people off.

Look, the most important thing in the world is geopolitical.

看看，世界上最重要的就是地緣政治。

What happens to the free western democratic world which has kind of been under attack by Russia and Ukraine, by Iran and the Middle east, you know, a little bit by China, wants to, to divide and conquer the Western world.

自由的西方民主世界會發生什麼事？他們受到俄羅斯和烏克蘭、伊朗和中東，還有中國的攻擊，試圖分化和征服西方世界。

And you know, both militarily and economically, you know, you have all their neighbors are rearming because of their actions, not because anyone else.

而且你知道，無論是軍事上還是經濟上，你知道，他們所有的鄰國都在重新武裝，因為他們的行動，而不是因為別人。

So those are the most important things I'd add.

所以這些是我會補充的最重要的事。

But those are, those are like I call like large moving tectonic plates that may or may not affect the economy in the short run.

但這些，這些就像我說的，是巨大的移動板塊，短期內可能會影響經濟，也可能不會。

They may be determinative in the longer run.

長期來看，它們可能是決定性的。

And some of these things we talk about war, you know, Vietnam, you know, did it affect the economy in the very short run?

我們談論戰爭，你知道，越南，你知道，它在非常短期的內影響了經濟嗎？

不，它在之後的二十年裡都產生了影響。

So you got to look at these things as they're moving plates that can take five years to have an effect, but

所以你必須看待這些事，它們就像移動的板塊，可能需要五年才會產生影響，但是

effectively real right now the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high, people are assuming things go on.

實際上現在經濟表現不錯，資產價格很高，大家覺得一切都會照常進行。

意思是，你問的每個人都不知道。

The credit spreads can gap out a lot and they could just because of sentiment.

信用價差可能會因為情緒而大幅擴大。

And so, so yeah, I think there's a little bit of, a little more exuberance than I think there should be.

所以，所以啊，我認為現在的樂觀情緒有點過頭了。

And you know, the one big beautiful bill adds to, you know, as to growth this year, bank deregulation, other deregulation to growth and animal spirits.

你知道，其中一個很棒的法案，像是銀行去監管、其他去監管，都對今年的成長和市場的活力有所助益。

But, but you pointed out, I think, you know, the skunk would be inflation.

但是，但是你提到了，我認為，你知道，最大的問題會是通膨。

So we've got to be keep our eye on that one closer.

所以我們得更密切關注這一點。

this actually speaks to something that people are wondering, which is what's going to potentially crash the party before we get into credit more significantly.

這其實呼應了大家正在思考的一個問題，那就是在我們更深入地介入信用之前，有什麼東西可能會讓派對提前結束。

I know that JP Morgan has been expanding significantly in the Middle east, particularly in Riyadh and Dubai.

我知道 JP Morgan 在中東地區，特別是利雅德和杜拜，都有顯著擴張。

If you take a longer term view, does any of what we're seeing now have the potential to shape that effort, to expand either in the positive direction or potentially to withdraw in the effort?

如果你從更長遠的角度來看，我們現在看到的一切，有沒有潛力塑造這項努力，讓它朝正向發展，或者甚至可能撤回這項努力？

I think the way I look at it creates more risk.

我認為我看待它的方式，會增加更多風險。

It Creates more chance of a positive outcome.

這會增加出現正面結果的機會。

So all those nations been modernizing, educating their people, you know, adopting more and more Western methods, want to open up their markets, bring in foreign direct investment, invest overseas.

所以，所有這些國家都在現代化、教育人民、採用越來越多的西方方法，想要開放市場、引進外國直接投資、對外投資。

Tom Friedman wrote about this in his paper today, that this creates a, a bigger opportunity for long and just peace in the Middle East.

Tom Friedman 今天在他的文章中也提到了這一點，這為中東地區的長久和平創造了更大的機會。

And writ large, not just Iran in this war, but

而且，不只是伊朗捲入這場戰爭，

you know, that Saudi Arabia, uae, some path to statehood for the Palestinians in Gaza and Palestinian, that's going to be up to, you know, them.

你知道，沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋，為加薩巴勒斯坦人及巴勒斯坦人開闢了一條獨立建國的道路，這將取決於他們。

You know, there are, there are reasons to be optimistic.

你知道，是有理由感到樂觀的。

This opens the door for that, you know, and there are a lot of naysayers.

這為此打開了大門，你知道，有很多唱反調的人。

I understand that if these go south, they're going to say I told you so.

我明白，如果這些事情失敗了，他們就會說「我早就告訴你了」。

So hopefully we're wise enough to help move in that direction.

所以希望我們夠明智，能幫助朝這個方向前進。

And if you watch closely going on in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, uae, Qatar, Kuwait, they all want peace and they all know that like really growing and having great economies rely on that.

如果你仔細觀察中東正在發生的事，沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋、卡達、科威特，他們都想要和平，而且他們都知道，要真正成長並擁有偉大的經濟，就得靠這個。

You want to get more foreign direct investment, you need peace.

你想吸引更多外國直接投資，就需要和平。

Things like war reduce the chance of people don't want to put real investment in the ground.

戰爭之類的事情會降低人們投資的意願。

then they even set up a shadow government for the Palestinian Authority with Palestinians, but

所以他們甚至為巴勒斯坦權力機構設立了一個由巴勒斯坦人組成的影子政府，但

professionals, lawyers, doctors, business people to create maybe a governing structure that can actually uncorruptly govern Palestinians and create, you know, peace on the ground there and you know, have Israel and Palestine working a long term course, but

專業人士、律師、醫生、企業家來建立一個或許能真正廉潔地治理巴勒斯坦人，並在當地創造和平的治理架構，你知道，讓以色列和巴勒斯坦朝著長期目標邁進，但是

of course to, you know, peace side by side with statehood.

當然，你知道，和平地與建國並存。

I mean, look on that one, I want to be optimistic, even though it's been terrible now for a long time.

我的意思是，看看這件事，我想要保持樂觀，即使這段時間以來一直都很糟糕。

You were talking about credit and I do want to return to it.

你剛才提到了信用，我確實想回到這個話題。

And what could potentially cause the credit cycle to crack even if we don't know the catalyst.

即使我們不知道催化劑是什麼，什麼可能導致信用週期崩潰？

Do you have a sense of what this credit cycle is going to look like?

你對這個信用週期會是什麼樣子有什麼看法嗎？

If it's going to be akin to something that we've seen in the past or if it's going to have a new kind of dynamic?

它會類似於我們過去見過的某種情況，還是會有新的動態？

So some things rhyme and some things never change.

有些事總會相似，有些事永遠不變。

The type of recession determines the nature of it.

經濟衰退的類型決定了它的性質。

So stagflation is very different than just a recession.

所以停滯性通膨和單純的經濟衰退非常不一樣。

Obviously the depth of the recession and a credit cycle is a normal cycle.

顯然，經濟衰退的深度和信用週期是一個正常的週期。

One of the things that's always different is which industries get really badly hurt.

總是不一樣的一點是，哪些產業會受到嚴重打擊。

Like you may remember in 00, 2000 it was telecom and utilities, you know, the MA stocks they pay dividends in 08 is Warren Buffett stocks, media stocks.

就像你可能還記得，2000 年是電信和公用事業，你知道，那些會發股息的 MA 股票，2008 年是 Warren Buffett 的股票，媒體股票。

You know, this time it may be a software, maybe it's not, but

你知道，這次可能是軟體，也可能不是，但是

something's moving that changes type of credit.