Name: 為什麼經濟還沒崩盤？ (Why the Economy Hasn't Crashed Yet)
Uploaded: 2026-02-15T18:26:03.000Z
Duration: 13 min 43 s

Last year was a complete catastrophe for the US Economy.

去年對美國經濟來說，簡直是一場徹底的災難。

進階形容詞比較級句型

Nobody has shaken the US Economy as much as Donald Trump did last year.

去年沒有人像唐納·川普那樣撼動美國經濟。

He introduced one of the largest tariffs in the history of the United States.

他推出了美國歷史上規模最大的關稅之一。

allies or largest trading partners have moved away from the United States and signed multitrillion dollar deals with India, China and other US all adversaries.

盟友或最大的貿易夥伴都遠離美國，並與印度、中國和其他美國所有對手簽訂了兆美元協議。

Almost every economist predicted that the US Economy is going to get into a recession last year.

幾乎所有經濟學家都預測去年美國經濟會陷入衰退。

And if that recession is going to last, then it can easily turn into a depression.

如果那場衰退持續下去，很容易就會變成蕭條。

In fact, the US GDP last year has actually grown.

事實上，去年美國的 GDP 其實有成長。

Unemployment rate is one of the most important indicators to measure the health of the economy, and

失業率是衡量經濟健康最重要的指標之一，

And the US economy has seen unemployment rates way below 4.3%.

而且美國經濟曾經出現過遠低於 4.3% 的失業率。

In the historical context, 4.3% is actually really great.

從歷史角度來看，4.3% 其實是很棒的。

Even right before the 2008 financial crisis, at the peak of the real estate bubble, unemployment was 4.6%.

就連 2008 年金融危機前夕，房地產保麗龍高峰期時，失業率也還有 4.6%。

The only other times that it has been lower than 4.3% is right after Covid and right before COVID Other than that, unemployment has been around 4.3%.

歷史上失業率低於 4.3% 的情況，只有在 COVID 剛結束和 COVID 剛開始之前。除此之外，失業率一直都在 4.3% 左右。

For the economy to fall into a recession or a depression, worst case scenario, we have to see unemployment rate that is about 10%.

如果經濟要陷入衰退或蕭條，最壞的情況是，我們會看到失業率大約在 10%。

And as you can see that the US economy is not even close to that.

而各位可以看到，美國經濟離那個數字還差得遠呢。

The real GDP after factoring in inflation, has actually grown last year by 2%.

扣除通貨膨脹後的實質 GDP，去年其實成長了 2%。

Yes, 2% is not 5% or 7% as Donald Trump has claimed is going to be.

沒錯，2% 不是唐納·川普聲稱的 5% 或 7%。

But overall, if you take that 2% and you put it in the historical context, you will see that it's actually not bad.

但總體來說，如果你把這 2% 放到歷史脈絡來看，你會發現其實不算差。

The US economy over the last 20 years has been growing by about 2%.

過去 20 年，美國經濟的成長幅度大約是 2%。

The only two years where the economy has actually collapsed and had a negative GDP growth was either during the Great Recession or during COVID back in 2020.

經濟實際崩潰且 GDP 負成長的兩年，分別是發生在大衰退期間，以及 2020 年的 COVID 期間。

Other than that, the economy grows anything between 1 to 3%.

除此之外，經濟成長幅度都在 1% 到 3% 之間。

And it's really difficult to grow the US economy by more than 3% given how big the US economy is and how advanced it is.

考量到美國經濟的龐大規模和先進程度，要讓美國經濟成長超過 3% 其實非常困難。

If you very poor economy just by building the basic infrastructure, your GDP is going to grow really fast.

如果一個非常貧窮的經濟體，光是蓋好基礎設施，GDP 就會快速成長。

But when you're looking at the US economy, that is the most advanced economy in the world and the largest economy humanity has ever seen, it is very difficult to grow it by anything more than 3%.

但當你看到美國經濟，這是世界上最先進的經濟體，也是人類有史以來見過最大的經濟體，要讓它成長超過 3% 非常困難。

So a 2% growth rate when there has been so much tariffs and so many crisises, last year is actually really great inflation.

所以去年在有關稅和這麼多危機的情況下，還有 2% 的成長率，其實是很不錯的通貨膨脹。

But recent data that came out for January suggests that inflation has been 2.4%.

但一月份最新的數據顯示，通貨膨脹是 2.4%。

S&P 500 last year has grown by almost 12%.

12% is of course not great because over the last three to four years we have seen the stock market grow by 20%.

當然，12% 並不算非常亮眼，因為過去三到四年，我們看到股市成長了 20%。

But you have to take the 12% and you have to compare it to the historical context.

但你必須把 12% 和歷史的背景做比較。

Overall, over the last hundred years, the S&P 500 has been growing by 8 to 10%.

整體來說，過去一百年，S&P 500 的成長率是 8% 到 10%。

So any number that is higher than 8%, we would consider that a really great year for the S&P 500.

所以任何高於 8% 的數字，我們都會認為是 S&P 500 非常棒的一年。

And if you actually been investing at the bottom of the market, because last year has been very catastrophic.

而且如果你真的在市場底部投資，因為去年非常災難。

In April, when Donald Trump announced the tariffs, the stock market crashed by about 20%.

去年四月，當川普宣佈實施關稅時，股市應聲下跌了約 20%。

But going back to April and May of last year, you can see that the market quickly recovered.

不過回顧去年的四月和五月，你會發現市場很快就恢復了。

And overall it has been a very positive year for the economy.

總體來說，今年對經濟來說是非常正面的一年。

So the real question right now is that most people are complaining about the quality of life, most people are complaining about prices, most people are actually thinking or seeing how their lives is getting a lot more difficult.

所以現在真正的問題是，大部分人都在抱怨生活品質，抱怨物價，大家其實都覺得生活變得越來越艱難。

Well, if you look at the data, the economy is growing.

嗯，如果你看看數據，經濟其實正在成長。

And that's because the most important way that we measure the economy today is called gdp, Gross Domestic Products.

這是因為我們現在衡量經濟最重要的指標叫做 GDP，國內生產毛額。

And the main driver of the GDP is spending.

而 GDP 的主要驅動力就是消費。

If there is a lot of spending in the economy, the GDP grows.

如果經濟中有大量的消費，GDP 就會成長。

If there is very little spending in the economy, the GDP doesn't grows at all.

如果經濟中的消費非常少，GDP 就完全不會成長。

So if you want to narrow it down to a single word, it is spending.

所以如果我們要用一個詞來總結，那就是消費。

And the biggest spender in the economy is obviously the U.S. government.

而經濟中最大的消費者，顯然就是美國政府。

Nobody spends as much as the U.S. government.

And the government last year has spent about $7 trillion.

而且政府去年大概花了 7 兆美元。

The real question is that where does government takes the money to spend?

真正的問題是，政府的錢從哪裡來花？

The government raises money from the people like you.

政府從像你一樣的人民那裡籌集資金。

And it has to maintain the world's largest military.

它必須維持世界上最大的軍隊。

It has to build the basic infrastructure, and it has to pay the social securities.

它必須建造基礎設施，還必須支付社會保障金。

But if you look at the US Government, the government over the last seven, eight years has been spending way more than its earning.

但如果你看看美國政府，過去七、八年來，政府的花費遠遠超過它的收入。

The government is earning about $5 trillion and is spending about $7 trillion.

政府賺取大約 5 兆美元，卻花費大約 7 兆美元。

And last year the deficit has been $1.8 trillion.

Over the last 10 years, that number has been consistently rising.

在過去 10 年裡，這個數字持續上升。

The deficit in 2016 has been half a trillion dollars.

So the government is literally just borrowing money and dumping into the economy to see the GDP growth.

所以政府 literalmente 只是借錢然後投入經濟，來看看 GDP 的成長。

So as long as the government keeps spending trillions of dollars, especially when that money is borrowed, the GDP will continue.

所以只要政府持續花費數兆美元，尤其是當這些錢是借來的，GDP 就會持續下去。

Not necessarily means that a better quality life for you.

這不一定代表你的人生品質會更好。

The second biggest spender in the economy are the businesses.

經濟體中第二大的支出者是企業。

Businesses are spending because they're building factories, they're hiring more people, they're doing whatever they're doing.

企業之所以支出，是因為他們在蓋工廠、僱用更多人、做他們正在做的任何事。

And all of those investments are actually driving spending, which means that they're driving the gdp.

而所有這些投資其實都在推動支出，這意味著它們在推動 GDP。

And since AI came out, companies are racing spending astronomical amounts of money to be the first who are going to dominate AI.

而自從 AI 出現後，各公司都在競相投入天文數字般的資金，希望能成為主導 AI 的第一名。

And last year, these companies spend the kind of money that you cannot possibly even comprehend.

而去年，這些公司花的錢是你們絕對無法想像的。

Amazon 在 2025 年前將投入 1300 億美元。

Microsoft $105 billion, and so on and so forth.

Microsoft 投入 1050 億美元，依此類推。

And if you check all of their investments over the last year, it has been probably over a trillion dollars.

而如果你看看他們去年的所有投資，總額可能超過一兆美元。

And these are just the investments that they have made on AI.

而這些只是他們在 AI 上的投資。

We are not taking into account all other investments throughout the entire economy.

我們還沒算上整個經濟體中其他的投資。

And because there is so much investment without actual real returns, because we don't know how much these AI are going to earn.

而且因為有這麼多的投資，但卻沒有實際的回報，因為我們不知道這些 AI 到底能賺多少錢。

Yes, there are theories that AI is going to be the most profitable thing in history and these companies could make a lot of money, but

是的，有理論認為 AI 將是史上最賺錢的東西，這些公司也能賺大錢，但是

we don't know what is going to be the return on investment.

我們不知道投資報酬率會是多少。

But regardless, these companies are taking the bets.

但無論如何，這些公司都在下注。

And they have invested over a trillion dollars last year.

他們去年就已經投資超過一兆美元了。

In fact, they will continue spending this year as well.

事實上，他們今年也會繼續花錢。

$200 billion by Amazon, $180 billion by Alphabet, and hundreds of billions of dollars by other companies.

亞馬遜花了 2000 億美元，Alphabet 花了 1800 億美元，其他公司也花了數千億美元。

And as long as these spendings are happening in the economy, the GDP is certainly going to increase.

只要這些花費在經濟體系中發生，GDP 一定會增加。

The third largest spender in the economy are the consumers.

經濟體系中第三大的支出者是消費者。

This is me, this is anybody else who is in the economy is making money and spending that money.

這是我，這也是其他任何在經濟體系中賺錢並花掉這些錢的人。

And as long as that money is being spent, it is going to contribute to a GDP growth.

而且只要這些錢持續花費，GDP 就一定會成長。

And the society is being divided now into two categories.

The top 20% are seeing their wealth astronomically rise because they're getting wealthier as a result of inflation.

前 20% 的人財富正以前所未有的速度飆升，因為通貨膨脹讓他們變得更富有。

When there is inflation, are prices are rising before prices rise in the grocery store.

當有通貨膨脹時，在超市裡的物價上漲之前，我們的物價就已經在漲了。

And you complain about how prices are rising so fast.

Do you know what prices rise prior to them?

你知道在物價上漲之前，是什麼先漲嗎？

The stock market reacts way faster than the grocery prices in the grocery store.

股市的反應比超市的物價還快得多。

And that's why the stock market is growing tremendously fast.

這就是為什麼股市正在以驚人的速度成長。

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為什麼經濟還沒崩盤？ (Why the Economy Hasn't Crashed Yet)

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