Name: 宏觀議題：下一任聯準會主席「仍需建立共識」！ (Macro Matters: The next Fed chair 'still needs consensus')
Uploaded: 2026-01-29T17:08:54.000Z
Duration: 3 min 47 s

過去簡單式

So is this the end of cuts under Chair Powell?

所以這就是 Chair Powell 升息的終點了嗎？

現在進行式

這是 macro matters，我們正在討論。

The Fed policymakers hit pause this week.

Chair Jerome Powell said the economy had surprised them with its strength.

Chair Jerome Powell 表示，經濟的強勁程度讓他們感到意外。

And it's hard to argue that policy is particularly restrictive now.

而且現在很難說目前的政策特別具有限制性。

Markets are no longer pricing in any further moves before Powell steps down in May.

市場不再納入考量 Powell 在五月卸任前的任何進一步行動。

But the new chair could change everything.

Mark Fleming is chief economist at First American.

Mark Fleming 是 First American 的首席經濟學家。

Mark, do you think we've seen the last policy moves under Chair Powell?

Mark，你認為我們已經看到了 Chair Powell 領導下的最後一次政策行動了嗎？

It's possible, although you never can say anything with certainty.

這是可能的，不過你永遠無法百分之百確定。

It's clear based upon less the announcement of the actual no change, but the press conference after that.

這點很清楚，不只是看實際沒有變動的宣佈，還有之後的記者會。

There seems to be a sort of more balance between the dual mandates of struggling to bring down inflation versus the labor market.

在努力降低通膨和勞動市場之間，似乎取得了一種更平衡的狀態。

As you mentioned, the labor market in their assessment is not as weak as maybe they thought at the end of last year.

正如你提到的，他們評估的勞動市場不像去年年底時那麼疲弱。

And so staying put and letting the changes that they made last year sort of work their way through in those long and variable impacts that they talk about and see what happens.

所以就保持不變，讓去年所做的改變慢慢發揮作用，產生他們所說的長遠且多變的影響，然後看看會發生什麼。

They are still, at least as of the December estimate, suggesting that they will cut more this year, that there'll be continued monetary easing, but

他們仍然，至少根據十二月的估計，表示今年會進一步降息，會有持續的貨幣寬鬆，但

And that could happen in the back half or as you said, with a change in leadership.

這可能會發生在下半年，或者正如你所說的，隨著領導層的變動。

Two officials dissented in favor of a cut.

有兩位官員持不同意見，主張降息。

One of them Christopher Waller, who is one of the top candidates to replace Powell.

其中一位是 Christopher Waller，他是接替 Powell 的熱門人選之一。

我們會看到更大幅度的降息嗎？

I think just because there's a new chairman doesn't make a significant difference on the overall committee.

我認為，光是因為有新任主席，並不會對整個委員會造成重大影響。

Remember that even the chairman is one of many voting members.

請記得，即使是主席，也只是眾多投票成員之一。

And so you still need to get consensus to change rates.

所以你們還是需要達成共識才能改變利率。

Even if one of those two were the chairman themselves, well, the market agrees they're not pricing in the kind of steep rate cuts that President Trump has made it clear that he wants to see.

即使其中一位是主席本人，嗯，市場也同意他們並沒有納入川普總統明確表示想看到的劇烈降息幅度。

There's actually the opposite risk that if you cut rates too dramatically in this environment, given what the market understands as good economic policy, you could actually, yes, reduce rates at the lower end.

事實上，風險是相反的，在這個環境下，如果我們過度大幅降息，考量到市場理解的良好經濟政策，你實際上可能會，是的，降低較低的利率。

Obviously the Federal Reserve fed funds rate influences shorter term lending and credit rates more dramatically than long term.

顯然，聯邦準備理事會的 Fed funds rate 比長期利率更劇烈地影響短期借貸和信貸利率。

But you could have like the bond vigilantes reappear and say that's not good economic policy and actually raise long term rates, which would have negative consequences, of course, particularly in the housing market.

但你可能會看到債券市場的「警惕者」再次出現，說這不是良好的經濟政策，實際上推高長期利率，這當然會帶來負面後果，尤其是在房地產市場。

And even if Fed rates do come down then towards the end of the year, will that make much difference for potential mortgage borrowers?

而且即使 Fed 的利率在年底前確實下降，這對潛在的房貸借款人會有很大影響嗎？

Well, recent history suggests that what the Fed does doesn't really do anything for mortgage borrowers.

嗯，近期歷史顯示，Fed 的做法對房貸借款人並沒有什麼實質影響。

The announcement this week, basically the market didn't do anything at all.

這週的宣佈，基本上市場根本沒什麼反應。

Even the rate cuts at the end of last year they reduced the short end, but

即使是去年底的降息，他們降低了短期利率，但

the long end of the yield curve stayed the same.

殖利率曲線的長端則保持不變。

Ten year treasury has been rangebound just over 4% for most of the last few months and so rate cuts don't necessarily portend lower mortgages.

十年期國債在過去幾個月大部分時間都維持在 4% 以上的區間震盪，所以降息不一定預示著房貸會降低。

Then could these worries about the independence of the Fed further encourage investors to sell U.S.

那麼，這些對 Fed 獨立性的擔憂，會不會進一步鼓勵投資人賣出美國

assets and push up those longer term costs then?

I think while obviously it's a matter of debate and concern that independence is threatened, most of the academic research suggests that independent Feds create better monetary policy and have more stable markets and are better for an economy than non independent Feds.

我認為，雖然獨立性受到威脅無疑是個有爭議且令人擔憂的問題，但大多數學術研究顯示，獨立的 Fed 能制定更好的貨幣政策，擁有更穩定的市場，對經濟比不獨立的 Fed 來得更好。

The chances of the Fed becoming independent again gets back to this concept of an equal among 12, not just one.

Fed 重新變得獨立的機會，又回到這 12 家銀行之間地位平等，而不僅僅是其中一家這個概念。

以上是 First American 的 Mark Fleming 的說法。

You can watch more videos on Reuters Doctors.

你可以在 Reuters Doctors 上觀看更多影片。

字幕列表影片播放

宏觀議題：下一任聯準會主席「仍需建立共識」！ (Macro Matters: The next Fed chair 'still needs consensus')

sort

potential

significant

majority