Name: 一生一次的經濟災難即將來襲！ (A Once in a Lifetime Economic Disaster is Coming)
Uploaded: 2026-01-21T18:04:44.000Z
Duration: 15 min 19 s

形容詞最高級

This is the biggest threat the dollar has faced since 1945.

這是自1945年以來美元面臨的最大威脅。

Europe and the UK are the major reasons why the United States dollar is the global reserve currency.

歐洲和英國是美元成為全球儲備貨幣的主要原因。

At first glance, it seems like the Europe and the UK need the United States.

乍看之下，歐洲和英國似乎需要美國。

But the reality is that without them, the US Dollar is not going to be the global reserve currency.

但事實是，沒有了他們，美元就無法成為全球儲備貨幣。

The total GDP of the European Union is $19.4 trillion.

歐洲聯盟的國內生產總值是19.4兆美元。

If you combine it with the GDP of the United Kingdom, that's $3.6 trillion, which gives them a total GDP of almost $25 trillion.

如果再加上英國的國內生產總值3.6兆美元，他們的總國內生產總值將近25兆美元。

But if you look at the purchasing power parity, their GDP is far bigger than that, which stands at $33.7 trillion, while the total GDP of the United states as of 2026 is $31 trillion.

但如果看購買力平價，他們的國內生產總值遠遠大於此，達到33.7兆美元，而美國在2026年的總國內生產總值是31兆美元。

So if we combine the GDP of the European Union and the UK in US dollars alongside the US economy, that's about $56 trillion.

所以，如果我們把歐洲聯盟和英國的國內生產總值與美國經濟加在一起，大約是56兆美元。

Now, the real question is, what is the total GDP of the world?

那麼，真正重要的問題是，全世界的總國內生產總值是多少？

So if you combine the US economy with the European Union and the UK, that's almost 50% of the global economy.

所以如果把美國經濟，加上歐洲聯盟和英國的經濟加起來，就佔了全球經濟將近一半。

And if 50% of the global economy is using the dollar as the reserve currency or as the main currency to do international trade, that sets the standard for the rest of the world to use the dollar as the reserve currency, to use the dollar in international transactions.

而如果全球經濟的一半都使用美元作為儲備貨幣，或是進行國際貿易的主要貨幣，這就為全世界使用美元作為儲備貨幣、在國際交易中使用美元，樹立了標準。

If you suddenly remove the United Kingdom and the European Union, and

如果突然把英國和歐洲聯盟移除，

they are not allies of the United States, the real question is what percentage of the global economy is going to use the dollar as the global reserve currency?

而且他們不是美國的盟友，那麼真正重要的問題是，全球經濟會有多少比例會使用美元作為全球儲備貨幣？

Only the United States, and that's literally 25% of the global GDP.

只有美國，而那差不多就是全球國內生產總值的25%。

In fact, if you pay a very close attention of how the EU and the UK do trade internationally, you will see that they're primarily using the dollar.

事實上，如果你仔細觀察歐洲聯盟和英國如何進行國際貿易，你會發現他們主要還是使用美元。

Now, I don't mean the internal trade between the European countries, but

我說的不是歐洲國家之間的內部貿易，

rather when the European countries are trading with other nations.

而是當歐洲國家與其他國家進行貿易時。

For example, when they trade with the United States, obviously they always use the dollar.

例如，當他們與美國進行貿易時，當然他們總是使用美元。

But when they also trade with countries such as China, they use the dollar.

但當他們也與中國等國家貿易時，他們也使用美元。

And China does not mind that, because when China sees that 50% of the global economy is using the dollar, China would adjust and China would simply accept the dollar.

而且中國也不介意，因為當中國看到全球經濟有百分之五十都在使用美元時，中國就會調整，中國就會接受美元。

European Union are also using the United States dollar as the currency to trade with Asian countries, with Middle Eastern countries every time they're buying oil and gas.

歐洲聯盟也使用美國美元作為與亞洲國家、中東國家貿易的貨幣，每次他們購買石油和天然氣時。

And now you can see that even, even though that the United States economy is the world's largest economy, but

而且現在你可以看到，即使美國經濟是世界上最大的經濟體，但

European economies reinforce the dollar to be the global Reserve currency.

歐洲經濟體卻強化了美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

If tomorrow European countries will start using their own currency as the global reserve currency, or they will be using the Chinese Yuan, suddenly the dynamic is going to change and the dollar is no longer going to be as powerful as it has been since 1945.

如果明天歐洲國家開始使用他們自己的貨幣作為全球儲備貨幣，或者他們將使用人民幣，那麼局勢將會突然改變，美元將不再像1945年以來那樣強大。

And this is another major reason that keeps the dollar to be the global reserve currency is that every major commodity is denominated in US Dollars.

這也是美元能夠維持全球儲備貨幣地位的另一個主要原因，那就是每種主要商品都以美元計價。

When you look at the price of oil or the price of silver or the price of gold, they're always priced or denominated in the US Dollar.

當你查看石油價格、白銀價格或黃金價格時，它們總是定價或以美元計價。

So if we are denominating oil in the US dollar, guess which currency is more convenient to do trade with.

所以，如果我們以美元計價石油，猜猜哪種貨幣進行貿易更方便？

Because if we are measuring the quality or the value of oil in the US Dollars, why would we exchange that to the euro?

因為如果我們以美元衡量石油的品質或價值，為什麼我們要將其兌換成歐元呢？

It's far easier to simply pay that in dollar because we measure it in the US Dollar.

直接用美元支付要容易得多，因為我們是以美元來衡量的。

The same thing applies to gold, silver and every other major commodity.

黃金、白銀以及其他所有主要商品也都一樣。

And the fact that the European countries alongside the UK agreed to use the dollar gives the US Dollar enormous power on the international stage.

而且，歐洲國家和英國都同意使用美元，這讓美元在國際舞臺上擁有巨大的影響力。

Now, another major reasons that keeps the dollar as the global reserve currency is the treasury market is the backbone of the global economy.

現在，美元能維持全球儲備貨幣地位的另一個主要原因，是美國國債市場是全球經濟的支柱。

Without a large enough treasury market, global trade is literally impossible because companies, businesses and banks and even countries are using Treasuries as savings without losing value.

如果沒有足夠大的國債市場，全球貿易根本不可能實現，因為公司、企業、銀行甚至國家都將國債視為一種不會貶值的儲蓄。

If you are doing international trade, you need to have a lot of money in the bank.

如果你在做國際貿易，你需要銀行裡有很多錢。

But if you have fiat currency, which loses value to inflation consistently, you don't want to keep a lot of paper money.

但如果你持有法定貨幣，它會持續因通貨膨脹而貶值，你就不會想存很多紙鈔。

But if that paper money is invested in Treasuries that you can very easily turn into cash whenever you want, then suddenly you want to hold a lot of fiat money.

但如果這些紙鈔投資在國債裡，而且你隨時可以輕鬆換成現金，那麼你就會想持有大量的法定貨幣。

Suddenly you want to hold a lot of US treasuries.

你就會想持有大量的美國國債。

Yes, there is a 3% inflation, but you can actually make 3.6% by holding the US treasuries.

是的，雖然有 3% 的通貨膨脹，但你持有美國國債實際上可以賺取 3.6%。

So you are comfortable to hold trillions of dollars of the U.S.

所以，你很樂意持有數兆美元的美國國債。

treasuries because you know for a fact that you can instantly convert them into real cash the next day or, or the exact same day and do international trade.

國債，因為你確切知道你隔天，或者當天就可以立刻將它們換成現金，然後進行國際貿易。

Which is why treasury market makes global transactions possible.

這也是為什麼國債市場讓全球交易成為可能。

If you pull out the financial statements of any major company, you will see that all of them have a lot of debt.

如果你調閱任何大公司的財務報表，你會看到它們都有很多債務。

Because debt basically is the engine of the global trade.

因為債務基本上是全球貿易的引擎。

When large companies and even small businesses, they do business, they don't use their own money.

當大型企業甚至小型企業做生意時，它們不會使用自己的錢。

They usually borrow money from the banks, invest it.

When that project starts to make money, they start paying off the interest or the debt.

當那個專案開始賺錢時，它們就開始償還利息或債務。

In fact, sometimes these companies don't even pay back the debt, but

事實上，有時候這些公司甚至不償還債務，而是

rather they keep a healthy debt as long as they can ensure they can make the interest payments on that debt.

只要能確保支付債務利息，它們就會維持健康的債務水準。

Now the question is that what is going to be the standard interest rate?

那現在的問題是，標準利率會是多少呢？

Who is going to set the global interest rate for the entire world?

誰要來訂定全世界的全球利率呢？

It is very difficult to do that when every single country has a completely different interest rate.

當每個國家都有完全不同的利率時，這真的很難做到。

Yes, of course every country has a completely different interest rate, but

是的，當然每個國家都有完全不同的利率，但是

you want a large enough market that is going to set the standard for the wealth.

你需要一個夠大的市場，來制定財富的標準。

And because European countries and the United States are half of the global GDP, and

因為歐洲國家和美國佔了全球國內生產總值的一半，

the European countries alongside the UK agree to use the US Dollar, the US treasury market simply sets the standard for interest rates globally.

歐洲國家和英國同意使用美元，美國國債市場就自然而然地訂定了全球的利率標準。

U.S. treasuries are also used as a collateral to be able to borrow money.

美國國債也可以當作擔保品來借錢。

When a US Company wants to borrow money from a Japanese bank to open a factory in Japan or open a new branch in Japan, they don't always use their own money.

當一家美國公司想向日本銀行借錢，以便在日本設廠或開設新分公司時，它們不一定會動用自己的資金。

So they would rather go to a Japanese bank, borrow money from the Japanese bank, build that factory, open that branch.

所以它們寧願去日本銀行，向日本銀行借錢，蓋那座工廠，開那家分公司。

When that project starts making money, they will start paying the Japanese bank.

等到那個計畫開始賺錢的時候，他們就會開始還錢給日本銀行。

But why would this Japanese bank even trust the US Company?

但為什麼日本銀行會信任這家美國公司呢？

There should be a collateral so that if that US Company won't be able to pay back the Japanese bank, the Japanese bank can take this collateral and exchange it for the US Dollars.

應該要有個抵押品，這樣如果這家美國公司還不起錢給日本銀行，日本銀行就可以拿走這個抵押品，換成美元。

And the best collateral in the world are the U.S. treasuries.

而全世界最棒的抵押品就是美國國債。

And that's why every single major company in the world holds, holds a lot of US Treasuries.

這也是為什麼全世界每一家大公司都持有，持有大量的美國國債。

Not because they're holding them as investments for themselves, but

並不是因為他們把這些國債當作自己的投資，而是

rather every time they need to borrow money, they borrow money against the Treasuries that they're actually holding.

每當他們需要借錢的時候，他們是拿手上的國債來借錢。

And at the same time, they're not worried of inflation because they know that these Treasuries are earning enough interest rates and interest rates that is higher than the inflation rate.

同時，他們也不用擔心通膨，因為他們知道這些國債賺取的利息足夠，而且利率比通膨率還高。

European Union has the option to build their own unified debt market.

歐洲聯盟有選擇建立他們自己的統一債務市場。

If you look at the treasury market of the European Union, you will see that every single country within the union has its own debt market.

如果你看看歐洲聯盟的國債市場，你會發現聯盟裡的每個國家都有自己的債務市場。

So you have German Treasuries or the German bonds, you have the Italian bonds, you have the Spanish bonds.

所以你會有德國國債，或是德國的債券，你會有義大利的債券，你會有西班牙的債券。

And the reason that euro cannot be used as the global reserve currency is because there isn't one unified treasury market that could back the European currency.

歐元之所以無法成為全球儲備貨幣，是因為沒有一個統一的國債市場來支撐歐洲的貨幣。

Building one debt market is very difficult because if France is going to borrow money with these bonds and then France defaults, then Germany has to rescue France and Vice versa.

建立一個債務市場非常困難，因為如果法國要用這些債券借錢，然後法國違約了，德國就必須救援法國，反之亦然。

And that applies to every single country in the European Union.

這同樣適用於歐洲聯盟裡的每一個國家。

So the European Union made a really great deal with the United States.

所以歐洲聯盟跟美國做了一個非常棒的交易。

European Union is not going to build its own bond market because it's extremely difficult.

歐洲聯盟不會建立自己的債券市場，因為這極其困難。

At the same time, it is going to rely on the US treasury market.

同時，他們將會依賴美國的國債市場。

And because half of the global GDP now uses the US treasury market, that sets the standard for the rest of the world and reinforces the dollar as the global reserve currency.

由於現在全球一半的國內生產總值都使用美國的國債市場，這就為世界其他國家設定了標準，並鞏固了美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

Now, hypothetically, European countries can actually build their own bond market and that would compete with the US Market.

現在，假設性地，歐洲國家實際上可以建立自己的債券市場，這將會與美國市場競爭。

They won't directly go into the United States, but

rather they will start using the euro much more often as the reserve currency because now there is a bond market that is going to back euro.

會開始更頻繁地使用歐元作為儲備貨幣，因為現在有一個債券市場將會支持歐元。

And that's why the European Union alongside the EU are holding $2.3 trillion in the US Treasuries.

這也是為什麼歐洲聯盟和歐盟持有 2.3 兆美元的美國國債。

In fact, 40% of all the foreign holdings of the US Treasuries are hold by the European Union, which is.

事實上，歐洲聯盟持有美國國債的總外國持有量中有 40% 是。

Or the UK Because European Union is doing a lot of trade internationally and they need a lot of U.S.

或英國，因為歐洲聯盟進行大量的國際貿易，他們需要大量的美元。

treasuries in order to hold them either as collateral and to make it possible for them to do international trade.

國債，以便將它們作為抵押品，並使他們能夠進行國際貿易。

The more countries, the more people hold the US Treasuries, the more capital flows into the United States and the faster the US Economy grows, which means that it's going to attract more investments, which is why the European countries are also investing trillions of dollars in the US Equity market.

越多的國家、越多人持有美國國債，就越多的資本流入美國，美國經濟增長就越快，這意味著它將吸引更多投資，這就是為什麼歐洲國家也在美國股市投資數兆美元。

According to the latest data, it's far more than $6 trillion.

根據最新數據，遠超過 6 兆美元。

Therefore, the entire European banking system runs on the US dollar.

是以，整個歐洲銀行體系都以美元運作。

So European banking system entirely depends on the United States because they made a decision to rely on the United States instead of building their own bond market.

所以歐洲銀行體系完全依賴美國，因為他們決定依賴美國，而不是建立自己的債券市場。

Now, if the United States wants to sanction in the country, if the United States wants to do whatever it wants, the European countries have no other option but to align their interests with with the US Interest because it's the US Financial markets.

現在，如果美國想制裁某個國家，或者美國想為所欲為，歐洲國家就別無選擇，只能讓他們的利益與美國的利益一致，因為這是美國的金融市場。

And you're using the US Financial markets, yes, you are reinforcing it.

而你正在使用美國的金融市場，是的，你正在強化它。

But then you have to reinforce your interest to be aligned with the United States.

但接著你必須強化你的利益，讓它與美國一致。

You cannot possibly be dependent entirely on the US Financial system while you have different interests from the United States.

你不可能完全依賴美國的金融體系，同時你又與美國有不同的利益。

And that's why since 1945, European countries have been aligning every single interest they have with the United States because they've been relying on the US treasury market.

這就是為什麼自1945年以來，歐洲國家一直將他們所有的利益與美國保持一致，因為他們一直依賴美國的國債市場。

But now all of that is suddenly shifting.

If you've been paying attention to what the leaders have been saying, At Davos.

如果你一直關注領導人在達沃斯論壇上說了些什麼。

Europe just said that they no longer can trust the United States, which is why they should no longer rely on the United States.

歐洲剛剛表示，他們不再信任美國，這就是為什麼他們不應該再依賴美國。

First of all, because the United States is threatening to take Greenland with force.

首先，因為美國威脅要武力奪取格陵蘭。