Name: 歷史上最大的金融陷阱之一出現了！對你而言意味著什麼？ (One of the Biggest Financial Traps in History Is Now Here (And What It Means for You)
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T18:19:46.000Z
Duration: 15 min 31 s

程度副詞

The US government spent $276 billion in interest payments just in the final three months of 2025.

美國政府光是在 2025 年最後三個月就花了 2760 億美元的債務利息支付。

情態副詞

This year, that number will exponentially grow to $1.2 trillion.

今年，這個數字將呈指數級增長到 1.2 兆美元。

And this is the biggest threat to Trump's presidency.

這對川普的總統任期來說是最大的威脅。

And that's why since day one, Trump was attacking the Chairman of the Fed to lower down interest rates.

這也是為什麼從第一天起，川普就一直在攻擊聯準會主席要求降低利率。

And now he took that to a completely different level.

而現在他把這件事提升到了一個全新的層級。

The Department of Justice started an investigation into Jay Paul, which means that most likely there is a probability that he will resign.

司法部已經開始調查 Jay Paul，這表示很有可能他會辭職。

Now, his term in office is going to expire in the spring of this year, but

他的任期將在今年春天到期，但是

he will continue and remain at the board of the chair.

And since he is the previous head of the chair, he will have massive influence over the Fed's decisions about future interest rates.

由於他是前任主席，他將對聯準會關於未來利率的決策有巨大影響。

And that's why by getting rid of Jay Paul, Trump can ensure that he will have lower interest rates and the Fed will start buying massively US Treasuries, and

這就是為什麼透過擺脫 Jay Paul，川普可以確保他能獲得較低的利率，而且聯準會將開始大量購買美國國庫券，

that will have massive implication on your money, on your paycheck, and on the entire economy.

這將會對你的錢、你的薪水，以及整個經濟產生巨大影響。

So here in this video, let's try to figure out how the Fed is posing a great danger to Trump's presidency.

所以這部影片，我們就來試著釐清聯準會是如何對川普的總統任期構成重大威脅。

How destroying Fed's independence is going to reset the entire global economy, and

摧毀聯準會的獨立性將如何重塑整個全球經濟，以及

most importantly, how that is going to impact you.

最重要的是，這將如何影響你。

So if you're ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以如果你準備好了，就給這部影片按個讚，我們馬上開始。

The biggest problem that Trump is facing in his presidency are interest payments.

川普總統任期面臨的最大問題就是債務利息支付。

Last year, total interest payments were about $1 trillion in entire 2025.

去年，總債務利息支付大約是 1 兆美元，是 2025 年的總額。

If this trajectory continues, by 2028, it will be about $1.8 trillion.

如果這個趨勢持續下去，到了 2028 年，將會是約 1.8 兆美元。

Not a single president in the past has spent so much money on interest payments.

過去沒有任何一位總統在債務利息支付上花費這麼多錢。

And that literally destroys his entire presidency, because he can't do anything else when he is spending so much money on interest payments.

這真的會毀掉他整個總統任期，因為他花這麼多錢在債務利息支付上，就什麼事都做不了了。

That money could be spent on building the infrastructure, improving the military, or simply making the country better, but

這筆錢本可以用來建設基礎設施、改善軍隊，或是讓國家變得更好，但

instead, that money is simply being spent on paying the creditors.

結果這筆錢卻只是拿去付給債權人了。

Last year, Donald Trump has passed the big beautiful bill to grow the debt ceiling to $41 trillion, which is insane.

去年，川普通過了一項龐大又美好的法案，將債務上限提高到 41 兆美元，這太瘋狂了。

The current debt is about $38.7 trillion, which means that throughout 2026, the US government will hit the debt ceiling and Trump has to pass another legislation to grow the debt ceiling by at least another $5 trillion.

目前債務約為 38.7 兆美元，這意味著到了 2026 年，美國政府將觸及債務上限，川普必須再通過一項法案，將債務上限至少再提高 5 兆美元。

Probably by 2028, the total debt will cross $45 trillion.

大概到 2028 年，總債務將會超過 45 兆美元。

That's why he needs to decrease the interest rates to make sure that it interest payments would go to their bare minimum.

這就是為什麼他需要降低利率，來確保債務利息支付能降到最低。

And Trump made it clear that he wants to see interest rates at 1%.

川普也說得很清楚，他希望看到利率是 1%。

And that means that at $45 trillion, 1% interest payments will bring the total interest payments to $450 billion.

這意味著，在 45 兆美元的債務下，1% 的利率支付將使總債務利息支付達到 4500 億美元。

Because most of that debt will be purchased by the Federal Reserve if the Fed will start massive quantitative easing.

因為大部分債務將由聯準會購買，如果聯準會開始大規模量化寬鬆的話。

The Federal Reserve on one side, lowers interest rates, and

now the US Government has to refinance that debt.

然後美國政府就得重新融資這些債務。

So it starts massively selling the US Treasuries.

所以他們就會開始大量賣出美國國庫券。

Of course, nobody is going to buy so much Treasuries.

當然，沒有人會買這麼多國庫券。

There isn't so much demand for US Treasuries in the market right now.

現在市場上對美國國庫券的需求沒有那麼大了。

But the Fed can do that by expanding its balance sheet.

不過聯準會可以透過擴張資產負債表來做到這點。

So the Fed buys all of these Treasuries, bringing down the overall interest rates for the government and and expands its balance sheet.

所以聯準會就會買進這些國庫券，降低政府的整體利率，同時擴張資產負債表。

It might not instantly lead to high inflation like it's supposed to, but usually it takes time.

這可能不會像預期那樣立刻導致高通膨，但通常需要時間。

So the systematic inflation over time is going to continue rising.

所以長期的系統性通膨會持續上升。

And here's why the Fed is so against Trump's plan.

這就是為什麼聯準會這麼反對川普計畫的原因。

If you look at the entire global economy, you'll see that all of it stands on the shoulders of the US Dollar and the entire world, starting from foreign countries to investors in the US and across the globe, from financial funds such as pension funds, ETFs, are all investing in the US debt.

如果你看看整個全球經濟，你會發現它都是建立在美元的基礎上，從外國到美國國內和全球的投資者，從退休基金、ETF等金融基金，都在投資美國的債務。

And the reason all of them are willing to buy so much US Debt and so much US Treasuries is because there is a trust that the Federal Reserve is independent and will ensure the stability of the US Dollar.

而他們之所以願意購買這麼多美國債務和美國國庫券，是因為他們相信聯準會是獨立的，並且會確保美元的穩定。

The Federal Reserve was not created to grow the US Economy.

聯準會的成立不是為了發展美國經濟。

The Fed was created to sustain the value of the US Dollar.

聯準會的成立是為了維持美元的價值。

It is the job of the government to grow the economy, and

it's the job of the Federal Reserve to ensure the stability of the dollar.

而聯準會的職責是確保美元的穩定。

And that independence is what allows other investors, even the adversaries of the United States, to trust the US Dollar because they know that this entity is independent.

而這種獨立性讓其他投資者，甚至是美國的敵對國家，都能信任美元，因為他們知道這個機構是獨立的。

The moment the Federal Reserve loses its independence and it's no longer targeting an inflation rate of 2% and is lowering interest rates to boost the US economy and not serve the interest or the stability of the US Dollar, all of these investors will not see any point to continue investing in the U.S.

一旦聯準會失去獨立性，不再以2%的通膨率為目標，而是為了提振美國經濟而降低利率，而不是為了美元的利益或穩定服務，那麼所有這些投資者將看不到繼續投資美國的意義。

And that doesn't simply mean foreign investors such as China, Japan, the European Union, but

而且這不只代表中國、日本、歐盟等外國投資者，

Most of that debt is being held by the US financial institutions such as ETFs, the US banks, such as Citi Chase, JP Morgan, you name it.

大部分的債務是由美國的金融機構持有，像是ETF、美國的銀行，例如花旗、摩根大通等等。

And historically, The Federal Reserve has proved itself to be very independent.

而歷史上，聯準會一直以來都證明自己非常獨立。

Going back historically, you can see that back in 1970s or 80s when inflation crossed about 13.5%, what do you think the Federal Reserve did?

回顧歷史，你可以看到在1970年代或80年代，當通膨超過13.5%時，你認為聯準會做了什麼？

It instantly hiked interest rates to almost 20%.

And interest rates were insanely high throughout that entire period to bring inflation down.

在那整個時期，利率都高得離譜，目的是要壓低通膨。

And the Fed has done a successful job to achieve that target.

Back in 1990s, when inflation was at about more than 2.5% and the US economy was in a bubble, the Federal Reserve intervened and increased interest rates to more than 5%.

在1990年代，當通膨超過2.5%，而美國經濟處於保麗龍時，聯準會介入並將利率調升到5%以上。

The same thing happened in early 2000s, right before the 2008 financial crisis.

同樣的事情也發生在2008年金融危機前夕的2000年代初期。

And in 2022, investors are willing to accept lower real returns.

而在2022年，投資人願意接受較低的實質報酬率。

And even if inflation is high, assuming that the Federal Reserve is independent, and

即使通膨很高，假設聯準會是獨立運作，

in the long run, it will bring down inflation to 2%.

長期來看，它會把通膨壓低到2%。

But right now, we are breaking the system that has worked for the United States since the creation of the Federal Reserve.

但現在，我們正在破壞自聯準會成立以來一直對美國奏效的體系。

If you look at the inflation the last five years, there hasn't been a single year where inflation was at about 2% or even below 2.5%.

如果你看看過去五年的通膨，沒有一年通膨大約是2%或甚至低於2.5%。

In 2021, inflation for the first time in a long time has crossed 4.7%.

2021年，通膨長久以來首次突破了4.7%。

If you are an investor in the US debt, will you buy the US Treasuries for 3.5% knowing that inflation is 4.7%?

如果你是美國債務的投資人，你會知道通膨是4.7%的情況下，還去買3.5%的美國國庫券嗎？

所以作為投資人，你正在賠錢。

When you are buying US Treasuries that pays you lower than 4.7%.

當你購買支付給你的利率低於4.7%的美國國庫券時。

In 2022, it got entirely out of control and the Fed raised interest rates 20 to 5.5%.

2022年，情況完全失控，聯準會將利率從20%提高到5.5%。

Since then, inflation has come down to 2.7% by the end of 2027.

從那時起，到2027年底，通膨已降至2.7%。

And if we start to lower interest rates right now and expand the balance sheet when we haven't hit the 2% inflation target, do you think investors are going to like that?

如果我們現在就開始降低利率，並在尚未達到2%的通膨目標時擴大資產負債表，你認為投資人會喜歡這樣嗎？

What message does that send to investors across the globe?

這會向全球的投資人傳達什麼訊息？

So if you are an investor in the US debt and you are making 4% in your investment while inflation is 3%, your real returns are 1%.

所以，如果你是美國債務的投資人，你的投資報酬率是4%，而通膨是3%，你的實質報酬率是1%。

But if we bring down US treasuries to 3% artificially and inflation is also 3%, do you think you are actually going to make any money or whatsoever?

但如果我們人為地將美國國庫券利率降至3%，而通膨也是3%，你認為你真的能賺到錢嗎？

Yes, on paper you made some money, but your real returns were 0%.

是的，帳面上你賺到了一些錢，但你的實質報酬率是0%。

If investors start to believe that the real new inflation in the US is going to be around 3%, they will start demanding a rate that is higher than 3% for their investments to make sense.

如果投資人開始認為美國的實質新通膨將在3%左右，他們就會開始要求更高的報酬率，以讓他們的投資有意義。

Especially when we are living in a moment where the biggest adversary and the second world's largest economy has an inflation that is closer to 0%.

尤其是在我們現在這個時刻，全球最大敵人和世界第二大經濟體的通膨率卻接近0%。

The highest inflation that was in China over the last 10 years was, was probably back in 2019 when it reached 3%.

過去十年來，中國最高的通膨率大概是在2019年，當時達到了3%。

Since then, especially since 2021, there hasn't been much inflation.

從那之後，特別是從2021年以來，通膨一直不高。

And if you're an investor, investing in the Chinese debt right now seems like a really good idea.

如果你是個投資人，現在投資中國債券聽起來是個很棒的主意。

Even if you are making, let's say 3% on your investment and inflation is 0%, you made 3 clean percentage points.

即使你投資賺了3%，而通膨是0%，你實際就賺了3個百分點。

If you are buying the US debt, the US treasuries, and

如果你買的是美國債券，美國國庫券，

inflation in the US is 3%, your real return is 0%.

美國的通膨是3%，你的實質報酬率是0%。

Suddenly investing in Chinese debt becomes much more appealing, becomes much more attractive.

突然間，投資中國債券變得更有吸引力了。

And that's not something that the United States can afford.

And that's why it's extremely important to keep inflation under control and ensure that the Federal Reserve is independent and the government is not replacing the Chairman of the Fed just because they don't like the interest rates.

這就是為什麼控制通膨，確保聯準會獨立運作，以及政府不會因為不喜歡未來的利率就換掉聯準會主席，是極其重要的。

So when independence is lost, when investors start to doubt the US Treasuries and the US Inflation rate, what do you think is going to happen to all of this debt that foreign countries have accumulated?

所以，當聯準會失去獨立性，當投資人開始懷疑美國國庫券和美國的通膨率時，你覺得這些外國累積的債務會怎麼樣？

China, which is an adversary of the United States and certainly not an ally, holds $850 billion.

中國，作為美國的對手，絕非盟友，持有八千五百億美元。

All of these countries are investing in the US debt not because they love the United States or anybody does anything like that, but

所有這些國家投資美國債務，並不是因為他們熱愛美國，也不是因為別人做了什麼，而是

rather everybody is driven by self interest.

They want to profit out of their investments just like you want to profit out of your investments.

他們想從投資中獲利，就像你想從你的投資中獲利一樣。

So when they start selling massively the US Treasuries, since the Fed is losing its independence, who do you think is going to buy that?

所以，當他們開始大量拋售美國國庫券，而聯準會又失去獨立性時，你覺得誰會接手？

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歷史上最大的金融陷阱之一出現了！對你而言意味著什麼？ (One of the Biggest Financial Traps in History Is Now Here (And What It Means for You)

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