Name: 房市急轉直下！ (The Housing Market Just FLIPPED!)
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T18:09:24.000Z
Duration: 12 min 1 s

程度副詞

我真不敢相信川普剛剛做了什麼。

He revealed his new plan to fix the housing problem.

他公佈了他解決房屋問題的新計畫。

情態助動詞 B1

If you are planning to buy a house or you are thinking to buy a house, then you must watch this video here.

如果你正打算買房，或是正在考慮買房，那你一定要看這支影片。

In this video we will try to answer a few questions.

在這支影片裡，我們會試著回答幾個問題。

What is Trump's new plan to fix the housing problem?

川普解決房屋問題的新計畫是什麼？

And how this plan could theoretically lead to 2008 style financial crisis.

而且這個計畫理論上可能會導致2008年式的金融危機。

So if you're ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，就給這支影片按個讚，我們馬上開始吧。

Trump just instructed to buy $200 billion worth of mortgage backed securities to bring interest rates down for mortgages.

川普剛剛訓示要購買價值2000億美元的抵押貸款擔保證券，以降低抵押貸款的利率。

For most people, the mortgage rate is what determines the final price of their house.

對大多數人來說，抵押貸款利率決定了他們房屋的最終價格。

So if we can theoretically bring down mortgage rates to 5% or 4%, housing is going to be way more affordable.

所以，如果我們理論上能把抵押貸款利率降到5%或4%，房屋就會變得非常負擔得起。

Over the last 12 months, mortgage rates have dropped down from about 7% to as low as 6.16% for 30 year mortgages.

在過去12個月裡，30年期抵押貸款利率已經從大約7%降到了最低的6.16%。

But a lot of people still find this very confusing.

但很多人還是覺得這很讓人困惑。

The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to 3.5%.

Why are mortgage rates are not going down to 3.5% since at the end of the day it is the Federal Reserve that sets the interest rates across the country.

為什麼抵押貸款利率沒有降到3.5%，畢竟說到底，是聯準會設定了全國的利率。

However, whether you like it or not, the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with mortgage rates.

然而，不管你喜不喜歡，聯準會跟抵押貸款利率一點關係都沒有。

If you want to know who sets really your mortgage rates, you have to understand how the mortgage market actually works.

如果你想知道是誰真正決定了你的抵押貸款利率，你就得了解抵押貸款市場實際上是怎麼運作的。

This is how most people think that mortgages are set.

這就是大多數人認為抵押貸款利率是如何決定的。

On one side you have the bank that offers the mortgage.

On the other side, this is you, the client or the borrower who takes the mortgage.

另一邊，就是你，也就是接受抵押貸款的客戶或借款人。

So theoretically it seems like it, it's the bank that decides whether they will lend you the money at 6% or 7%.

所以理論上，看起來好像是銀行決定要以 6% 或 7% 的利率借錢給你。

So the evil banks right now are charging so much and Donald Trump is going to save the American people by forcing the banks to bring down the mortgage rates.

所以現在這些邪惡的銀行收費這麼高，而川普將會強迫銀行降低抵押貸款利率來拯救美國人民。

Unfortunately, it does not works like that.

可惜，事情並不是這樣運作的。

抵押貸款是非常有風險的投資。

First of all, they are 30 year mortgages, which means that if the bank is going to offer you a mortgage for the next 30 years, you it is taking the risk of anything that could happen within that range.

首先，這是 30 年期的抵押貸款，這意味著如果銀行要在未來 30 年提供你抵押貸款，銀行就要承擔這段期間內可能發生的任何風險。

So if inflation will get out of control, if the US Dollar will become worthless, if the United States will no longer become the most powerful economy in the world, which is why the bank doesn't actually want that mortgage.

所以，如果通貨膨脹失控，如果美元變得一文不值，如果美國不再是世界最強大的經濟體，這就是為什麼銀行實際上不想要那筆抵押貸款。

It created two organizations which are called Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

它創造了兩個組織，叫做 Freddie Mac 和 Fannie Mae。

Their job is, is to take all these mortgages, bundle them into one giant Security called Mortgage backed Security and sell them to investors.

他們的工作是將所有這些抵押貸款打包成一個稱為抵押貸款擔保證券的巨大證券，然後賣給投資人。

So the demand for mortgage backed securities is going to determine your mortgage rate.

所以對抵押貸款擔保證券的需求將決定你的抵押貸款利率。

For example, if investors are asking for 7% on mortgage backed securities, then Freddie Mac on Fannie Mae can only sell them when they have mortgages that have 7%, which is why they're only going to buy mortgages from the banks that have 7% mortgage rates, which is why the bank is forced to offer you that mortgage at 7% interest rate.

所以，如果投資人對抵押貸款擔保證券的要求是 7%，那麼 Freddie Mac 或 Fannie Mae 只能在有 7% 抵押貸款時賣出，這就是為什麼他們只會向銀行購買利率為 7% 的抵押貸款，這就是為什麼銀行被迫以 7% 的利率向你提供抵押貸款。

However, if there is such a strong demand by these investors for these mortgage backed securities and they're competing to buy them, suddenly Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will offer lower mortgage rates, maybe 4%, maybe 3%, which means that now the bank can offer lower mortgage rates because they know that they can sell them for a lower rate, since the demand for the mortgage backed securities will determine your mortgage rate.

然而，如果這些投資人對抵押貸款擔保證券有如此強烈的需求，並且他們在競爭購買，那麼 Freddie Mac 和 Fannie Mae 會提供較低的抵押貸款利率，可能是 4%，也可能是 3%，這意味著銀行現在可以提供較低的抵押貸款利率，因為他們知道他們可以以較低的利率賣出，因為對抵押貸款擔保證券的需求將決定你的抵押貸款利率。

Both of these organizations are sitting on $200 billion worth of assets.

這兩個組織都持有價值 2000 億美元的資產。

These assets include both mortgage backed securities, US Treasuries, cash, and a lot of liquid investments.

這些資產包括抵押貸款擔保證券、美國國債、現金以及許多流動性投資。

So why don't we take these $200 billion and buy $200 billion worth of mortgage backed securities?

所以，為什麼我們不拿出這 2000 億美元來購買價值 2000 億美元的抵押貸款擔保證券呢？

That strong demand for the mortgage backed securities theoretically could bring down mortgage rates.

對抵押貸款擔保證券的強勁需求理論上可以降低抵押貸款利率。

The mortgage backed securities market is huge.

抵押貸款擔保證券市場非常龐大。

It's worth about $13 trillion with a daily volume of $300 billion.

其價值約為 13 兆美元，每日交易量為 3000 億美元。

So while $200 billion seems like a lot of money, you can see that it is not going to make a huge difference.

所以，雖然 2000 億美元聽起來很多，但你們可以看到，這不會造成太大的影響。

It still should theoretically bring down mortgage rates.

理論上還是應該能降低抵押貸款利率。

So the real question is that how much of an impact these $200 billion are going to make on mortgage rates?

所以真正的問題是，這 2000 億美元對抵押貸款利率能有多大的影響？

The problem is that if you look at the mortgage rates, you will see that back in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates hit their block bottom of about 2.65%.

問題是，如果你看看抵押貸款利率，你會發現早在 2020 年和 2021 年，抵押貸款利率就觸及了約 2.65% 的低點。

And this happened primarily because again, the government decided to force the Federal Reserve to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage backed securities.

這主要是因為，政府再次決定迫使聯準會購買數千億美元的抵押貸款擔保證券。

If you look at the balance sheet of the Fed, you will see that starting From March of 2020 to 2022, the Federal Reserve purchased $1.3 billion worth of mortgage backed securities.

如果你看看聯準會的資產負債表，你會發現從 2020 年 3 月到 2022 年，聯準會購買了 1.3 兆美元的抵押貸款擔保證券。

And in April of 2020 alone, it purchased $300 billion worth worth of mortgage backed securities.

僅在 2020 年 4 月，就購買了 3000 億美元的抵押貸款擔保證券。

So $1.3 trillion forced mortgage rates between 2020 to 2021 to go down by a single percentage point.

所以，1.3 兆美元讓 2020 年到 2021 年的抵押貸款利率下降了 1 個百分點。

So if $1.3 billion or $1.3 trillion brought down mortgage rates by a single percentage point, how Much of an impact do you think $200 billion are going to do?

所以，如果 1.3 兆美元讓抵押貸款利率下降了 1 個百分點，你認為 2000 億美元會有什麼影響？

Yes, theoretically they will bring down mortgage rates, but probably by 0.1%, 0.2%.

沒錯，理論上它們會讓抵押貸款利率下降，但可能只會下降 0.1%、0.2%。

Here is the biggest problem with the mortgage backed securities.

這就是抵押貸款擔保證券最大的問題所在。

Mortgage backed securities are investments like any other investments and they're competing in the market for investors money.

抵押貸款擔保證券和其他投資一樣，它們會在市場上爭奪投資者的資金。

So in one slide you have a bunch of people with trillions of dollars if you combine all of their wealth and they're thinking how can we possibly invest our money to that is a safe investment and maximizes our return.

所以，在一張投影片裡，你看到一群人，他們加起來有數兆美元的財富，他們在想，我們該如何投資我們的錢，才能獲得安全又最大化的報酬。

So if you look at the market, the best investment is of course the stock market.

所以，如果你看看市場，最好的投資當然是股市。

Over the last 12 months alone, the S&P 500 grew by 20%.

光是過去 12 個月，S&P 500 就成長了 20%。

So you can literally make 20% by investing in the stock market.

所以你真的可以透過投資股市賺到 20%。

Why would you invest in the mortgage backed securities where you can get right now 6% and if mortgage rates will be brought down to 4%, then nobody is going to buy the mortgage backed securities.

為什麼你會想投資抵押貸款擔保證券，現在只能拿到 6%，而且如果抵押貸款利率降到 4%，那根本沒人會買抵押貸款擔保證券。

So who exactly is going to loan you the mortgage?

那麼，到底是誰會借你抵押貸款？

And that's why you have to understand that the stock market is growing exponentially by 20%.

這就是為什麼你必須瞭解股市正在以 20% 的速度指數級增長。

By the way, if you want to know my investing strategy for 2026, then check out the first link in the description of this video.

順帶一提，如果你想知道我 2026 年的投資策略，請查看這個影片說明的第一個連結。

Some stocks within the stock market has grown by 200%, 100%, 500%.

股市裡有些股票已經漲了 200%、100%、500%。

And that's why investors are more likely to invest their money in the stock market than mortgage backed securities.

這就是為什麼投資人寧願把錢投資在股市，而不是抵押貸款擔保證券。

The second type of investment is of course short term Treasuries.

第二種投資當然是短期國庫券。

Why investors are buying short term Treasuries when they can make much more money buying mortgage backed securities.

為什麼投資人會買短期國庫券，而不是去賺更多錢買抵押貸款擔保證券。

First of all, this is just a three month treasury, which means that if I'm an investor and I'm buying short term Treasuries, the Treasury will expire in three months and I will get my money back.

首先，這只是三個月的國庫券，也就是說，如果我是一個投資人，我買了短期國庫券，國庫券會在三個月後到期，我會拿回我的錢。

While if I'm actually buying mortgage backed securities, I'm locking my money for the next 30 years.

而如果我實際上是買抵押貸款擔保證券，我就等於把我的錢鎖定了 30 年。

The risks with mortgage backed securities is a lot more than short term Treasuries.

抵押貸款擔保證券的風險比短期國庫券高很多。

And that's why the demand for the mortgage backed securities will always be much higher than mortgage backed securities.

這也是為什麼短期國庫券的需求總是比抵押貸款擔保證券高很多。

And short term Treasuries are also guaranteed by the US government.

而且短期國庫券也有美國政府的保證。

So you know for a fact that you are going to get your money back.

所以你確切知道你會拿回你的錢。

And now compare all of these investments to mortgage backed securities.

現在我們來比較一下這些投資和抵押貸款擔保證券。

Before 2008, everybody thought that the mortgage market or the housing market is immune to default.

在2008年之前，大家都認為房地產市場或房屋市場不會違約。

But 2008 proved to the world that even if the US government is backing these mortgages, the housing market could still collapse.

但2008年向全世界證明瞭，即使有美國政府擔保這些抵押貸款，房屋市場還是可能崩潰。

that's why, because of that extra risk that investors are taking by investing in mortgage backed securities, mortgage backed securities have to offer a higher interest rate to compensate for that risk.

這就是為什麼，因為投資人投資抵押貸款擔保證券所承擔的額外風險，抵押貸款擔保證券必須提供更高的利率來補償這個風險。

So many things could happen within the next 30 years.

所以未來30年內可能會發生很多事情。

What if inflation gets out of control and it gets to 5%, 6%.

如果通貨膨脹失控，達到5%、6%怎麼辦？

And if you have locked your money at 5% interest rate for the next 30 years, then you're guaranteed to lose money when, which is why the demand for mortgage backed securities is very low and that's why the rates on them are extremely high.

如果你把錢鎖在5%的利率上30年，那你肯定會虧錢，這就是為什麼抵押貸款擔保證券的需求很低，利率又非常高的原因。

Now if you want to compare mortgage backed securities, the best comparison are long term government bonds that are 30 year government bonds.

現在，如果你想比較抵押貸款擔保證券，最好的比較對象是長期的政府債券，也就是30年期政府債券。

Currently they have a yield of 4.8% while mortgage backed securities have a yield of about a little over 6%.

目前它們的殖利率是4.8%，而抵押貸款擔保證券的殖利率大約是6%多一點。

So because 30 year bonds are much safer than mortgage backed securities and investors are willing to accept a lower rate by investing in them than in mortgage backed securities.

所以，因為30年期債券比抵押貸款擔保證券安全得多，投資人願意接受較低的利率來投資它們，而不是抵押貸款擔保證券。

And that's why mortgage backed securities right now have a much higher interest rate, which is why your mortgage is at least 6%.

這就是為什麼抵押貸款擔保證券現在的利率高得多，這也是為什麼你的抵押貸款至少要6%。

Ideally, if inflation will continue rising, your mortgage will continue rising.

理論上，如果通貨膨脹持續上漲，你的抵押貸款也會持續上漲。

So you could theoretically throw $200 billion and create this artificial demand.

所以你理論上可以投入2000億美元，創造這種人為需求。

It might last for a few months, maybe six months, and

可能會持續幾個月，也許六個月，然後

then mortgage rates will climb back to their previous levels.

接著抵押貸款利率就會回升到之前的水準。

But here is the biggest problem with Trump's plan.

但這就是川普的計畫最大的問題。

This is not the first time that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are buying mortgage backed securities.

這不是 Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac 第一次購買抵押貸款擔保證券。

Prior to 2008 financial crisis, both of these companies have been massively buying mortgage backed securities to make mortgages much more affordable across America.

在2008年金融危機之前，這兩家公司都在大量購買抵押貸款擔保證券，讓全美國的抵押貸款變得更加負擔得起。

And by 2008, they had a combined portfolio of $1.8 trillion worth of mortgage backed securities.

到了2008年，他們總共持有價值1.8兆美元的抵押貸款擔保證券。

The moment the housing market collapsed, both of these companies collapsed as well.

房地產市場崩潰的那一刻，這兩家公司也隨之崩潰。

And the U.S. government had to bail them out by spending hundreds of billions of dollars.

美國政府不得不花費數千億美元來救助他們。

But there was one contingency that the government is going to bail them out.

But after the crisis, they will start liquidating their mortgage backed securities.

但在危機之後，他們將開始清算他們的抵押貸款擔保證券。

字幕列表影片播放

房市急轉直下！ (The Housing Market Just FLIPPED!)

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