Name: 為何生育率與出生率都在下降？- BBC 世界服務《全球故事》podcast (Why fertility and birth rates are falling - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service)
Uploaded: 2025-12-30T15:10:07.000Z
Duration: 18 min 50 s

Hello, I'm Lucy Hockings from the BBC World Service.

哈囉，我是 BBC 世界新聞臺的 Lucy Hockings。

The global population is growing and it's not expected to peak until well into the second half of this century.

全球人口持續增長，預計要到本世紀下半葉才會達到高峰。

But the number of children that people are having is actually decreasing around the world.

但大家生的小孩人數其實正在全球各地減少。

From a persistent cost of living crisis to the rapid cultural change of this hyper digital era.

從持續的生存成本危機，到這個 hyper digital era 快速的文化變遷。

The factors fueling this trend aren't easy to define as.

驅動這個趨勢的因素並不容易定義。

As more countries see their populations age, some fear unsustainable pressure will mount on the critical social infrastructure which holds communities together.

隨著越來越多國家面臨人口老化，有些人擔心，維繫社區的關鍵社會基礎設施將承受無法負荷的壓力。

So is it possible to plan ahead to limit the impact of falling fertility rates?

那麼，有沒有可能事先規劃，來限制生育率下降的影響呢？

And are there ways that societies could even benefit from it long term?

而且，長遠來看，社會有沒有可能從中獲益呢？

With me Today is the BBC's population correspondent, Stephanie Haggerty.

今天和我一起討論的是 BBC 的人口事務記者 Stephanie Haggerty。

You've been studying population trends for a long time now.

The interesting thing about population is we focus on it when something seems dramatic, but

人口有趣的地方是，我們總是在事情看起來很戲劇化時才關注它，但

actually the changes are quite incremental.

其實這些變化是相當漸進式的。

We have been seeing this serious acceleration in growth and infertility rates and everything, and now we're just.

我們一直看到成長和不孕率等各方面出現嚴重的加速，而現在我們只是。

所以我們正處於一個大變革的時代。

But, but it's interesting because we report these things and this is our business, right News.

但，但有趣的地方是，我們報導這些事情，這就是我們的業務，對吧，新聞。

But what I've always found fascinating about fertility is.

但關於生育率，我一直覺得很迷人的是。

And population is, it is kind of slow, you know, it is incremental in the grand scheme of things.

還有人口，你知道，總體來說，它是漸進式的。

But we aren't talking about a decline in fertility rates in this episode.

但我們這一集要談的不是生育率下降。

But actually the global population itself is growing and it's growing quickly.

但實際上，全球人口本身正在成長，而且成長迅速。

So I was thinking about this the other day and I think one of the, maybe the easiest ways to describe it is my family, right?

所以前幾天我在想這件事，我想其中一個，也許最簡單的描述方式就是我的家庭，對吧？

My mom had four kids and each of us has had fewer than that.

我媽媽有四個小孩，而我們每個人都比她少。

我有一個，我另一個哥哥有一個。

So each of us have had fewer children than my mum, but

所以我們每個人生的孩子都比我媽少，但是

there's still five grandchildren in our family.

So our family is growing and the dynamics on a global level are similar.

所以我們的家庭正在成長，而全球的動態也是類似的。

But there's also another dynamic that's going on, which is in certain countries, you have the dynamic like my family, and

但還有另一個正在發生的動態，那就是在某些國家，你有像我家的動態，然後

then at others, fertility rates aren't declining as dramatically.

在其他國家，生育率沒有像那樣急劇下降。

So there's a handful of countries where the population is still growing quite rapidly.

所以有一些國家的人口還在快速成長。

And big countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, but then also Pakistan, the Philippines, and

還有像奈及利亞、衣索比亞、埃及這些大國，以及巴基斯坦、菲律賓等等，

they're going to contribute Hugely to the growth in global population, but they are the minority.

他們將會大幅貢獻全球人口的成長，但他們是少數。

So by 2050, I think three quarters of the countries in the world will have a declining population, and

所以到2050年，我想全球四分之三的國家人口都會下降，

Nigeria is one of the fastest growing countries in the world, but

奈及利亞是世界上成長最快的國家之一，但

its fertility rate, so the number of children each woman is having is declining.

它的生育率，也就是每個婦女平均生的孩子數量正在下降。

So it was six in the 50s, around five now.

50年代是六個，現在大約是五個。

So all over the world, this generation is having fewer children than our parents.

所以全世界，這一代人生育的孩子比我們的父母少。

So can we say that by the end of this century, is this fair, that the overwhelming majority of countries actually are not going to be able to sustain their populations?

那麼我們能不能說，到本世紀末，這公平嗎？絕大多數國家實際上將無法維持其人口？

And the global population by the end of this century will also be declining.

而且到了本世紀末，全球人口也會開始下降。

Between 2060 and 2080, it's predicted that the global population will top out at about 9 or 10 billion and start declining then.

預計在2060到2080年之間，全球人口會達到約90到100億的頂峰，然後開始下降。

And then, more specifically, Stephanie, what do we know about fertility rates in areas where the population is growing fastest?

那麼，Stephanie，針對人口增長最快的地區，我們對生育率有什麼更具體的瞭解嗎？

So they're still declining, but just not as fast.

所以它們還在下降，只是速度沒那麼快了。

So in Europe, you had an average of about four children in the middle of the century.

所以歐洲在世紀中葉，平均有大約四個孩子。

So if each couple has 2.1 children on average, kind of hard to have 0.1 of a child, but

所以如果每對夫妻平均有2.1個孩子，雖然說很難有0.1個孩子，但是

So you need to produce that number to replace yourselves in the world.

所以你需要達到這個數字，才能在世界上取代自己。

And countries that are still on this trajectory of growth, they have a lot more than 2.1.

而那些還在走這種成長軌跡的國家，她們的數字遠高於2.1。

So, Stephanie, I think everyone knows that it's been a year of elections almost or around 70 we've had in 2024.

所以，Stephanie，我想大家都知道，2024年幾乎是選舉年，我們已經有大約70場選舉了。

And surely in most countries, one of the biggest issues has been the cost of living.

而在大多數國家，其中一個最大的問題肯定是生活成本。

And that is surely a factor when people are making decisions around whether or not to have a child.

這絕對是人們在決定是否要生孩子時會考慮的因素。

I think it's the factor when it comes to, especially in places where populations is already declining, it comes up again and again.

我認為這是個關鍵因素，尤其是在人口已經在下降的地方，這個問題會一再出現。

I've spoken to countless people in Japan or South Korea, and

我跟日本或韓國無數人都聊過，

they talk about things like housing, the cost of education.

他們會提到像是住房、教育費用這些。

In the UK now it costs about 200,000 over a child's lifetime.

在英國，現在一個孩子一輩子的花費大約是20萬英鎊。

And it's incredible that anyone can afford that.

而且讓人難以置信的是，竟然有人負擔得起。

Research came out earlier this year that it's surveys where they speak to young people, Gen Z's and millennials about their fertility intentions.

今年稍早有份研究出來，是針對年輕人、Z世代和千禧世代，詢問他們關於生育意願的調查。

So they ask, do you intend to have children?

所以他們會問，你有打算生小孩嗎？

Almost half of the people who've never had children said they had no plans to, and

將近一半從未生過小孩的人表示，他們沒有生小孩的計畫，而且

that was profoundly linked to financial insecurity.

這跟財務不安全感有很深的關聯。

So where people felt they were financially insecure, where they felt they were less well off than their parents or their parents generation, they were much more likely not to want a child or to think it was unlikely for them to have a child.

所以，當人們覺得財務不安全，覺得自己不如父母或父母那一代時，他們就更不可能想要小孩，或者覺得自己不太可能會有小孩。

And the researchers I spoke to working on these surveys said it's not that surprising.

而我訪談的、負責這些調查的研究人員說，這其實沒什麼好意外的。

In this country where you have the age where you get your first mortgage is creeping right up into the late 30s, childcare is famously unaffordable.

在這個國家，你買第一間房子的年齡不斷往後延到三十幾歲，而托育費用更是貴得嚇人。

And I'm sure people all around the world will understand the impact that that has in your decision whether or not to have a child.

我相信全世界的人都能理解，這對你決定要不要生小孩會有什麼影響。

And housing, we're seeing housing crises, not just here in the uk, but

還有住房，我們看到住房危機，不只在英國，

any country that's experiencing mass urbanization, we have this problem with housing.

任何正在經歷大規模都市化的國家，都會有住房問題。

And in some of the countries that are most profoundly affected by fertility decline, like East Asia, it's the cost of education that they talk about when they discuss their decision not to have children or to have fewer children.

而在受生育率下降影響最嚴重的國家，像是東亞，人們在討論是否要生小孩或少生小孩時，會提到教育的成本。

And what about some of the social and cultural impacts?

I mean, there are rapidly changing expectations of the genders in our society as well.

意思是，我們社會中性別的期望也在快速改變。

So that has had a profound impact and it's been really well studied, especially in East Asia, where you have some of the highest participation of women in the workforce and education and at the same time really unequal distribution of work at home.

所以這產生了深遠的影響，而且研究得非常透徹，尤其是在東亞，女性在職場和教育上的參與度非常高，但同時家務勞動的分配卻非常不平等。

I found this when I've spoken to women in South Korea or Japan about whether they want to have children or not, and

我在跟韓國或日本的女性談論她們是否想生小孩時，發現了這一點，

they see their friends who already have children really struggling to keep up at work, struggling to keep up with the long working hours when they're expected to do everything at home.

她們看到已經有小孩的朋友們在工作上真的跟不太上，下班後還要處理家務，真的好辛苦。

And for a lot of the women I've spoken to, they say, I just don't want that lifestyle, I don't want that life where I, I've got to work to support my family.

而且我訪談過的許多女性都說，我就是不想要那種生活，我不想過那種為了養家而必須工作的日子。

We need two incomes, but I've also got to do everything at home.

我們需要雙薪，但我還得包辦所有家務。

What about in countries that have quite progressive paternity leave, for instance, does that make a difference?

那如果是在有相當進步的陪產假國家，例如，這會有差別嗎？

There was a time period where the Scandinavian countries were celebrated for battling fertility decline, so that the fertility levels had dropped, but

曾經有一段時期，北歐國家因為成功對抗生育率下降而備受讚揚，當時生育率有下降，

And this was the 90s and the early 2000s, and

那是在九零年代和二十一世紀初，

that was always put down to their really progressive pro family policies.

這一直被歸因於他們非常進步的親家庭政策。

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為何生育率與出生率都在下降？- BBC 世界服務《全球故事》podcast (Why fertility and birth rates are falling - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service)

struggle

inevitable

situation

profound