Name: 卡庫：量子電腦如何讓不可能變成現實！ (Michio Kaku: How quantum computers could turn the impossible into reality)
Uploaded: 2025-12-12T18:00:19.000Z
Duration: 11 min 10 s

We all know that digital computers have changed the entire landscape.

我們都知道，數位電腦徹底改變了整個局面。

關係子句

Nations which can use digital computers are rich, they are powerful, they can communicate, they can revamp the economy.

能夠使用數位電腦的國家，他們很富有，他們很強大，他們可以溝通，他們可以重振經濟。

However, we're now in the initial stages of the next revolution.

然而，我們現在正處於下一場革命的初期階段。

How quantum computers will change everything.

The next revolution will be quantum computers that will make the digital computer look like an abacus.

下一場革命將是量子電腦，它會讓數位電腦看起來像算盤一樣過時。

In other words, the future of digital computers is to wind up in the garbage can.

換句話說，數位電腦的未來就是被丟進垃圾桶。

We're talking about a new generation of computers, the ultimate computer, a computer that computes on atoms, the ultimate constituents of matter itself.

我們談論的是新一代的電腦，終極電腦，一種能在物質本身最基本構成單位的原子層級上進行運算的電腦。

Quantum computers had the capability of changing every aspect of our life.

量子電腦有能力改變我們生活的各個方面。

Everything could be changed by quantum computers.

所有的一切都可能被量子電腦改變。

Take a look, for example, of food supply.

舉個例子，我們來看看糧食供應。

There was a green revolution that took place that allows us to feed the population of the world.

曾經有一場綠色革命，讓我們能夠餵養全世界的人口。

But that green revolution is slowly coming to an end.

但那場綠色革命正在慢慢走到盡頭。

Being able to take nitrogen from the air and combine it to make ammonia and fertilizer.

能夠從空氣中提取氮，並將其結合製成氨和肥料。

And already we're trying to use quantum computers to unlock the secret of how to make fertilizer from nitrogen.

我們已經在嘗試利用量子電腦來解開如何從氮氣製造肥料的祕密。

Fusion power could one day give us unlimited energy almost for free.

融合能源有一天或許能讓我們幾乎免費地獲得無限能源。

We're talking about an energy source where the basic fuel is seawater.

我們談論的是一種能源，它的基本燃料是海水。

Fusion plants burn seawater, the hydrogen of seawater, to create fabulous amounts of energy without nuclear waste, without the threat of a meltdown.

融合電廠燃燒海水，也就是海水中的氫，來產生驚人的能量，而且沒有核廢料，也沒有熔毀的威脅。

And quantum computers may be essential to stabilize the vacuum and hydrogen so that they don't cause an accident or they don't fall apart.

而量子電腦可能對於穩定真空和氫至關重要，這樣它們才不會引起事故或崩潰。

So in other words, quantum computers can affect the economy in basic ways, not to mention medicine.

所以換句話說，量子電腦能從根本上影響經濟，更不用說醫學了。

We create hundreds of chemicals and test them one by one in a petri dish.

我們創造數百種化學物質，並在培養皿中逐一測試。

This is old fashioned, slow, but that's all there is.

這是老派、緩慢的方法，但這就是我們所能做的。

In the future, we'll be able to model diseases at the molecular level, will be able to do molecular experiments in the memory of a computer rather than in a petri dish, trying to look at hundreds of chemicals to find out which one is medically relevant.

未來，我們將能在分子層級模擬疾病，能在電腦的記憶體中進行分子實驗，而不是在培養皿中，試圖找出數百種化學物質中哪一種對醫學有意義。

In other words, we're talking about turning medicine upside down.

換句話說，我們正在談論讓醫學徹底改頭換面。

The question is, who's involved in this race to perfect quantum computers?

問題是，誰參與這場完善量子電腦的競賽呢？

If you're not part of the race, you could be irrelevant in the future.

如果你沒有參與這場競賽，未來你可能會被淘汰。

All the big names of the computer industry, Google, IBM, Honeywell, they're all in the game because they realize that you could become irrelevant.

所有電腦產業的大咖，Google、IBM、Honeywell，他們都投入其中，因為他們意識到你可能會被淘汰。

Wall street is always looking for the next big investment, and this could be it.

華爾街總是在尋找下一個大投資，而這可能就是了。

All Of a sudden, we have companies that just started a few years ago becoming multi billion dollar companies as they try to put their flag on the mountain of quantum computers.

突然之間，我們看到一些幾年前才剛成立的公司，在爭奪量子電腦的霸主地位時，變成數十億美元的公司。

This is one of the hottest stocks that are available on the stock market now.

這是目前股市上最熱門的股票之一。

All the big players in Silicon Valley are part of this race.

矽谷所有的大咖都參與了這場競賽。

Because if they're not, Silicon Valley could become the next Rust Belt.

因為如果他們不參與，矽谷可能會變成下一個鏽帶區。

We have something called Moore's Law, which says that computer power doubles every 18 months.

我們有個叫做摩爾定律的東西，它說電腦的運算能力每 18 個月就會翻倍。

Every Christmas, your computers are twice as powerful as the previous Christmas.

每年聖誕節，你的電腦都會比前一年聖誕節的強大兩倍。

Moore's Law is getting slower and slower.

Would you upgrade your computer knowing that it's just as powerful as the last few generations of computers?

如果你知道你的電腦跟前幾代的電腦一樣強大，你還會升級嗎？

This could cause a depression in the computer industry.

這可能會讓電腦產業陷入低迷。

We physicists called attention to this decades ago, but

我們物理學家幾十年前就注意到這一點，但是

we said that, well, we still have a few more decades left.

我們說，嗯，我們還有幾十年的時間。

It's coming because transistors are getting smaller and smaller.

它正在來臨，因為電晶體越來越小。

A transistor today could be, let's say, 20 atoms across.

今天的電晶體，可以說是橫跨 20 個原子。

When you start to hit five atoms across, then electrons can then hop across and create short circuits, and

當你開始碰到橫跨 5 個原子時，電子就會跳過去，造成短路，然後

We're now gradually approaching that limit.

我們現在正逐漸接近那個極限。

When you look at the curve of the exponential growth of computer power, it's quite remarkable.

當你看看電腦效能指數級成長的曲線時，非常驚人。

This is where modern technology has taken a leap.

But now we're beginning to level off, just like we predicted.

但現在我們開始趨於平緩，就像我們預測的那樣。

Electrons are waves, waves of probability, and

they're unstable if you start to get electrons and then analyze them at the level of an atom.

當你開始接觸電子然後在原子的層級分析它們時，它們是不穩定的。

So, in other words, Silicon Valley has to confront the fact that Moore's Law will eventually collapse.

所以，換句話說，矽谷必須面對摩爾定律終將崩潰的事實。

So for all these reasons, we have to go beyond digital computers to atomic computers, computers that compute on atoms rather than on transistors.

所以，基於所有這些原因，我們必須超越數位電腦，走向原子電腦，也就是在原子層級上運算，而不是在電晶體上運算。

Right now, anyone who's interested in security is interested in quantum computers, because quantum computers in principle, have the power to crack any digital code.

現在，任何關心安全的人都對量子電腦感興趣，因為量子電腦原則上能夠破解任何數位密碼。

All the data that is sent on the Internet is coded.

網際網路上傳送的所有資料都會經過編碼。

National secrets of nations are encoded in these codes, which often require you to factorize very large numbers.

國家的機密資訊就藏在這些編碼裡，而這些編碼通常需要你分解非常大的數字。

But that's what quantum computers can do.

They can factorize very large numbers and thereby crack almost any code that is based on digital technology.

量子電腦可以分解非常大的數字，進而破解幾乎所有基於數位技術的編碼。

這也是為什麼聯邦調查局、中央情報局，

all national governments interested in computer security are following this very closely.

以及所有關心電腦安全的國家政府都在密切關注這件事。

So, for example, let's say you want to have a secret that's encoded.

所以，舉個例子，假設你想讓一個訊息被編碼。

the code says you have to factorize a digit that is, let's say, 50 digits long.

而這個編碼要求你分解一個數字，假設它有 50 位數長。

It would take perhaps a few hundred years for a digital computer to factorize a number that is 50 digits long.

數位電腦可能需要幾百年才能分解一個 50 位數的數字。

A quantum computer may be able to do that almost instantly.

量子電腦可能幾乎瞬間就能做到。

And so you see the anxiety that this is being created for people involved with computer security.

所以，你看，這讓所有參與電腦安全的人都感到焦慮。

You're not talking about being able to break into any other computer on the earth that is based on digital technology.

你不是在說能夠入侵地球上任何基於數位技術的其他電腦。

Now, we're not there yet, so you don't have to worry that someone's going to steal all your secrets tomorrow.

現在，我們還沒到那一步，所以你不必擔心明天有人會偷走你所有的祕密。

And when it comes, we're going to have to have a major revision of how we code our most treasured national secrets.

而當那一天到來時，我們將必須大幅修改我們編碼最珍貴國家機密的方式。

Ordinary digital computers compute on zeros and ones, zeros and ones.

一般的數位電腦是以零和一、零和一來運算的。

But if you take a look at medicine, you take a look at energy, you take a look at molecules.

但如果你看看醫學，看看能源，看看分子。

They're not based on zeros and ones, zeros and ones.

它們不是基於零和一、零和一。

And electrons can be smooth, not zeros and ones.

而且電子可以是平滑的，而不是零和一。

And these electrons, how come they have so much computational power?

而這些電子，為什麼它們有這麼強大的計算能力？

Because they could be in two places at the same time.

因為它們可以同時出現在兩個地方。

Now, at this point, you may say to yourself, that's ridiculous.

現在，你可能會覺得，這太荒謬了。

How can you be two places at the same time?

你怎麼能同時出現在兩個地方？

Electrons can be multiple places simultaneously at the same time.

電子可以同時出現在多個地方。

That's what gives quantum computers their power.

這就是賦予量子電腦力量的原因。