Name: OpenAI 和 Nvidia 崩潰！AI 保麗龍開始破裂！ (OpenAI & Nvidia Collapse as AI Bubble Meltdown Starts)
Uploaded: 2025-12-05T17:56:21.000Z
Duration: 10 min 12 s

If you hold Nvidia stocks, then this video is for you.

如果你持有 Nvidia 股票，那這支影片就是為你準備的。

程度副詞

OpenAI was planning to go public at $1 trillion valuation, but that's not happening.

OpenAI 原本計畫以一兆美元的估值上市，但這不會發生了。

In fact, Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation is about to crumble.

事實上，Nvidia 五兆美元的估值即將崩潰。

Right before the last earnings reports, investors were already shocked and they were massively selling off Nvidia stocks, wiping out $700 billion of market cap.

在上一次財報公佈前，投資者就已經感到震驚，他們大規模拋售 Nvidia 股票，市值蒸發了七千億美元。

這相當於 Tesla 整個公司估值的一半。

But it's about to get a lot worse than that.

Nvidia's entire $5 trillion valuation hinges on OpenAI's profitability.

Nvidia 五兆美元的估值，全繫於 OpenAI 的獲利能力。

Because OpenAI has ordered over a trillion dollars worth of computer chips from Nvidia, most of these orders were indirectly through other companies such as Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft and Core weave.

因為 OpenAI 向 Nvidia 訂購了超過一兆美元的電腦晶片，其中大部分訂單是透過 Amazon、Oracle、Microsoft 和 Core weave 等其他公司間接進行的。

So if OpenAI is not going to be profitable enough and won't generate enough revenue to fulfill these, then these companies have no motivation to continue buying Nvidia's GPUs and lease them to OpenAI.

所以，如果 OpenAI 無法獲利足夠，也無法產生足夠的營收來履行這些訂單，那麼這些公司就沒有動機繼續購買 Nvidia 的 GPUs 並將其租賃給 OpenAI。

Nvidia's market cap back in 2021 was about $735 billion.

Nvidia 在 2021 年的市值大約是 7350 億美元。

It was a huge company, but it was nowhere close to its current 5 trillion dollar valuation.

那時它已經是一家大公司了，但離現在的 5 兆美元估值還差得遠。

Back in 2021, the company's revenue was about $16.7 billion with a net income of $4.3 billion.

在 2021 年，該公司的營收約為 167 億美元，淨利為 43 億美元。

So it had a 25% net income compared to its revenue.

It is earning about $130 billion with a net income of $73 billion.

它賺取的營收約為 1300 億美元，淨利為 730 億美元。

Which means that Nvidia has increased its prices so dramatically that it insanely increased its valuation.

這意味著 Nvidia 大幅提高了價格，使其估值瘋狂飆升。

So imagine you have a company that is going to generate at least a trillion dollars of revenue in the next five years.

所以想像一下，有一家公司在未來五年內將產生至少一兆美元的營收。

如果是淨利，那就是 600 億美元。

Now you understand why investors are paying for Nvidia about $5 trillion.

現在你知道為什麼投資者願意為 Nvidia 支付約 5 兆美元了。

Because if you compare Nvidia's net income and revenue today to other companies such as Apple, Amazon and Google, then it's not earning anything close to that.

因為如果你將 Nvidia 今日的淨利和營收與 Apple、Amazon、Google 等公司相比，它根本賺不到那麼多。

So why is Google's valuation is half of Nvidia's valuation?

那麼 Google 的估值為何只有 Nvidia 的一半？

But because investors estimate that we have Nvidia, that's about to earn $1.4 trillion, 60% of that is about $800 billion of net income.

但因為投資者預估 Nvidia 將賺取 1.4 兆美元，其中 60% 約為 800 億美元的淨利。

So theoretically, in the next five years, Nvidia is going to earn a lot more than Google is earning today.

所以理論上，未來五年 Nvidia 的賺取金額將遠超過 Google 今日的收入。

But all of this is hinges on the basic idea that OpenAI is going to be enough profitable to buy all of those GPUs.

但這一切都取決於一個基本想法，就是 OpenAI 將有足夠的獲利能力來購買所有這些 GPUs。

Currently, OpenAI has about 800 active users with about 2% of them are paid subscribers.

目前 OpenAI 約有 800 位活躍用戶，其中約 2% 是付費訂閱戶。

The moment you monetize your platform and you make ChatGPT only paid subscription, your growth is going to hinder.

一旦你將平臺貨幣化，並讓 ChatGPT 僅限付費訂閱，你的成長就會受阻。

So the strategy behind it is very simple.

We are going to keep it free and we are going to make it great for as long as we can so that we capture the entire market.

我們會盡量讓它免費且夠好，直到我們能掌握整個市場。

Once we monopolize the entire market, that's when we are actually going to increase our prices.

一旦我們壟斷了整個市場，那時候我們才會真正提高價格。

And that's the strategy that a lot of startups follow.

這也是很多新創公司採用的策略。

Amazon has been unprofitable and was running at a loss for 20 years.

Amazon 過去 20 年都處於虧損狀態，沒有獲利。

And then suddenly in 2017 and 2018, the company became one of the most profitable companies in the world because they dominated E commerce.

然後在 2017 年和 2018 年，因為他們主導了電子商務，公司突然成為世界上最賺錢的公司之一。

But there's One problem that ChatGPT is facing is that Google just came out with Gemini 3 and Gemini 3 has scored the better than ChatGPT in multiple benchmarks.

但 ChatGPT 面臨一個問題，就是 Google 剛推出了 Gemini 3，而且 Gemini 3 在多項基準測試中得分優於 ChatGPT。

所以現在市場上有新的王者了。

Let's assume for a moment that Gemini 3 is as good as ChatGPT, not better than ChatGPT.

我們暫且假設 Gemini 3 和 ChatGPT 一樣好，而不是比 ChatGPT 好。

The problem that OpenAI is facing is that it's getting into a war with Google on who is going to outlast the other.

OpenAI 面臨的問題是，它正與 Google 展開一場戰爭，看誰能撐到最後。

Google is in a very good position this year.

Google 今年處於一個非常有利的位置。

It's going to record a revenue of about $400 billion with net income of $130 billion.

他們的營收預計將達到 4000 億美元，淨利為 1300 億美元。

So Google by itself is already generating far more than Nvidia is generating.

所以光是 Google 自己就已經賺得比 Nvidia 多很多了。

So they have the resources to outlast OpenAI.

是以他們有足夠的資源撐到最後，而不是 OpenAI。

If OpenAI right now is going to monetize the platform by introducing ads or making it only paid subscriptions, then those 800 million active users would slowly be moving into Google.

如果 OpenAI 現在要透過廣告或只提供付費訂閱來獲利，那麼那 8 億活躍用戶就會慢慢轉移到 Google。

But if OpenAI is not going to find a way to increase its revenue, it won't be able to fulfill these orders.

但如果 OpenAI 找不到增加營收的方法，他們就無法履行這些訂單。

Then Nvidia is not going to receive its trillion dollars worth holders to sell its GPUs.

那 Nvidia 就無法收到它價值兆美元的持有者來賣它的 GPUs。

And that's the problem that OpenAI is facing right now.

這就是 OpenAI 現在面臨的問題。

So the battle between OpenAI and Google is turning like the battle between Facebook and Snapchat.

所以 OpenAI 和 Google 的戰爭，就像 Facebook 和 Snapchat 的戰爭一樣。

When Snapchat came out, they introduced an idea that was very new to social media.

當 Snapchat 出現時，他們提出了一個對社群媒體來說非常新的想法。

You could send a story and it will disappear in 24 hours.

你可以傳送一個限時動態，它會在 24 小時後消失。

It literally was one of the revolutionary ideas of its time.

這真的是當時最具革命性的想法之一。

It was a simple idea, but it was very effective.

這是一個簡單的想法，但非常有效。

Suddenly, Snapchat became one of the most important social media Platforms instantly.

突然間，Snapchat 瞬間成為最重要的社群媒體平臺之一。

Mark Zuckerberg calls the CEO of Snapchat and is like, we are going to buy you.

Mark Zuckerberg 打電話給 Snapchat 的 CEO 說，我們要買下你們。

Snapchat, of course, refused to be sold to Facebook.

Snapchat 當然拒絕被 Facebook 收購。

The next day, Facebook integrated stories into every single platform that they have.

隔天，Facebook 就將限時動態整合到他們旗下的每一個平臺。

Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, you name it.

Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp，你想得到的都有。

I remember when I saw stories on WhatsApp for the first time.

我記得第一次在 WhatsApp 上看到限時動態的時候。

我當時想，這到底發生了什麼事？

為什麼我們要在 WhatsApp 上看到限時動態？

Yes, of course there are still a good number of people who use Snapchat, but that's very limited.

是的，當然還是有很多人在使用 Snapchat，但那已經非常有限了。

The company is literally dying every single day.

這間公司真的每天都在走向死亡。

And probably in 10 years from now, or maybe five years from now, Snapchat will be obsolete.

然後大概十年後，或者五年後，Snapchat 就會過時了。

They will just go bankrupt because their existence makes no sense.

他們就會倒閉，因為他們的生存毫無意義。

因為 Facebook 擁有遠比他們多的資源。

They were already a much more well established company, and

他們本來就是一家更成熟的公司，而且

they had the resources to outlast competitors such as Snapchat.

他們有足夠的資源來熬過像 Snapchat 這樣的競爭對手。

And it seems like the battle between Google and OpenAI is turning into the same battle as Facebook and Snapchat.

而現在看來，Google 和 OpenAI 的戰役，似乎變成了 Facebook 和 Snapchat 的翻版。

They have all the money in the world to keep Gemini for free for the next five to ten years until OpenAI simply won't have enough money to continue ordering Nvidia's GPUs.

他們有的是錢，可以在接下來的五到十年內讓 Gemini 免費，直到 OpenAI 沒錢訂購 Nvidia 的 GPUs。

I mean, you can borrow money from investors, you can raise money from investors, but

我的意思是，你可以向投資者借錢，可以向投資者籌錢，但是

If you're not growing as fast to justify those raising money or that debt, then you no longer can borrow.

如果你的成長速度不夠快，無法證明籌錢或債務的合理性，那麼你就無法再借錢了。

Which means that all those orders to Nvidia are not actually happening.

這意味著所有對 Nvidia 的訂單實際上都不會發生。

The second problem they're facing is that Google is training its AI models on their internal computer chips.

第二個他們面臨的問題是，Google 正在使用他們內部的電腦晶片來訓練 AI 模型。

While ChatGPT is being entirely trained on Nvidia's GPUs, Google has actually developed their own internal chips about 10 years ago.

雖然 ChatGPT 完全是在 Nvidia 的 GPUs 上訓練的，但 Google 其實在十年前就已經開發了自己的內部晶片。

They've been working on that for the last decade.

他們過去十年來一直在努力這件事。

So they have the infrastructure, they have the technology.

所以他們有基礎設施，他們有技術。

And it seems like that they have trained their AIs to be better than ChatGPT.

而且看起來他們已經訓練出比 ChatGPT 更厲害的 AI。

Which means that now Nvidia no longer can actually charge those astronomical prices.

這意味著 Nvidia 現在實際上無法再收取那些天文數字的價格了。

Nvidia will have to lower their prices, which means that it is going to lower its profitability.

Nvidia 將不得不降低價格，這意味著他們的獲利能力將會下降。

Even if Nvidia's revenue will stay at $130 billion, at 25% net income, that's about $30 billion.

即使 Nvidia 的營收維持在 1300 億美元，淨利 25%，那大約是 300 億美元。

Suddenly we are no longer expecting a trillion dollar valuation.

突然間，我們不再預期會有兆美元的估值。

Suddenly this $1.4 trillion order to buy Nvidia's chips is not happening.

突然間，這筆 1.4 兆美元購買 Nvidia 晶片的訂單就這樣消失了。

So Google is killing two birds with one stone.

On one side they've built their computer chips to destroy Nvidia's monopoly on computer chips to train AI.

一方面，他們已經打造了自己的電腦晶片，來打破 Nvidia 在訓練 AI 電腦晶片上的壟斷地位。

On the other side, they're using these computer chips to build, or already have built a chatbot that rivals chatgpt if it's not already better than chatgpt.

另一方面，他們正利用這些電腦晶片來打造，或者已經打造了一個可以與 ChatGPT 匹敵，甚至可能比 ChatGPT 更厲害的哈拉機器人。

So investors right now will be very carefully watching.

所以投資人現在會非常密切地關注。

We can't Verify how fast ChatGPT is growing because OpenAI is a private company.

我們無法驗證 ChatGPT 的成長速度有多快，因為 OpenAI 是一傢俬人公司。

They're not obligated to share their financial statements or even the number of active users.

他們沒有義務分享他們的財務報表，甚至活躍用戶的數量。

On the other side, Nvidia is a publicly traded company and that's why all eyes are on the next earnings of Nvidia.

另一方面，Nvidia 是一家上市公司，這就是為什麼所有人的目光都聚焦在 Nvidia 下一次的財報上。

In the last earnings, investors were expecting that the growth is going to slow down, but

在上一次的財報中，投資人預期成長將會放緩，但是