Name: MSC執行長Franke：『沒美國我們管不好自己的安全』！ (CEO of the MSC Franke: 'We don't want to manage our own security without the US')
Uploaded: 2025-11-24T17:11:01.000Z
Duration: 6 min 47 s

And joining us now from Johannesburg is Benedikt Franca.

現在加入我們的是來自約翰尼斯堡的 Benedikt Franca。

He's the CEO of the Munich Security Conference and an expert in International Affairs.

他是慕尼黑安全會議的執行長，也是國際事務專家。

The war in Ukraine cast a long shadow over the G20 summit there.

烏克蘭戰爭為 G20 峰會蒙上了一層陰影。

Do you think that the talks to end the war are now going in Ukraine's favor?

您認為結束戰爭的談判現在是否對烏克蘭有利？

So let's distinguish between the G20 summit here in Joburg and what was going on in Geneva and before that, and

所以，讓我們區分一下這裡約翰尼斯堡的 G20 峰會，以及在日內瓦和之前發生的事情，

I. I wish this would have gone differently.

I wish it wouldn't always take these surprising US Proposals to freak us Europeans into action and into cohesion.

我希望不需要總是出現這些令人驚訝的美國提議，才能讓我們歐洲人採取行動並團結起來。

But let's face it, we see new momentum in an important negotiation.

不過，我們得承認，我們看到了一場重要談判的新動能。

We see, at the moment, European cohesion.

我們看到，此刻，歐洲的團結。

You see, of the Munich Security Conference.

I'd like to talk about the operative word security there.

我想談談「安全」這個關鍵詞。

Has Donald Trump's presidency made Europe more secure?

川普總統任期讓歐洲更安全了嗎？

It has made Europe a lot more conscious about the need to get better and more serious on its own security.

它讓歐洲更清楚地意識到，需要加強並更認真地處理自身的安全問題。

And do you think Europe is being able to stand up to that challenge?

你認為歐洲能夠應對這個挑戰嗎？

It is so easy to talk down what we've done in the past.

過去我們做了什麼，其實很容易被看輕。

It is so easy to focus on the free riding of the last couple of decades.

過去幾十年來的搭便車行為，也很容易被放大檢視。

But let's face it, we've seen enormous structural change in the last couple of months.

不過說實在的，過去幾個月我們看到了巨大的結構性改變。

vance gave his famous speech at the Munich Security Conference in February this year, we have seen real change in Germany and in many other European countries.

Vance 在今年二月的慕尼黑安全會議上發表了著名的演講後，我們在德國和許多其他歐洲國家都看到了真正的改變。

Let's focus on what we have achieved so far.

讓我們來看看我們到目前為止的成就。

And, you know, speaking to the American side pretty frequently, they acknowledge and, in fact, are surprised by the amount of changes that we've seen.

還有，你知道的，我經常和美方溝通，他們承認，而且事實上，他們對我們看到的改變程度感到驚訝。

Will Europe be in a position to manage its own security without US help soon?

歐洲很快就能在沒有美國協助的情況下管理自己的安全嗎？

Okay, first of all, we don't want to manage our own security without the U.S.

好的，首先，我們並不想在沒有美國的情況下管理自己的安全。

we want to keep the U.S. firmly entrenched in European security.

我們希望美國能穩固地留在歐洲安全事務中。

But if it doesn't happen that we have to shoulder a lot more.

但如果我們不得不承擔更多責任，那也沒辦法。

所以，是的，在可預見的未來。

No, let's be serious and honest about this.

不，讓我們認真且誠實地面對這件事。

In the foreseeable future, we are helpless and we are almost defenseless.

在可預見的未來，我們無能為力，幾乎沒有防禦能力。

But then again, Even without the U.S. nATO is the strongest military alliance in the world.

但話說回來，即使沒有美國，北約仍然是世界上最強大的軍事同盟。

the European militaries, and that's not just the EU, but, you know, Count in Great Britain.

歐洲的軍隊，不只是歐盟，你也可以把英國算進去。

How important is the outcome of the Ukraine war to Europe's security?

烏克蘭戰爭的結果對歐洲的安全有多重要？

If we run around the world always upholding principles like territorial sovereignty and support of like minded countries and then we do not deliver, then we let them die out in the cold, then nothing of what we're doing structurally on the ground with our armies, on conscription, on spending will have any meaning whatsoever.

如果我們到處宣揚像領土主權和支持理念相近國家這樣的原則，卻沒有實際行動，讓他們孤立無援，那麼我們在軍隊、徵兵、開支等方面所做的結構性努力都將毫無意義。

It will undermine our credibility as an actor globally and hence we must not let Ukraine, Ukraine lose this war.

這會損害我們作為全球行為者的信譽，是以我們絕不能讓烏克蘭輸掉這場戰爭。

then if the Americans, if it came to the point that the Americans lose interest in supporting Ukraine, as has been indicated a number of times in the past year, can Europe actually do its part and support Ukraine in winning this war?

如果美國人，如果到了美國人對支持烏克蘭失去興趣的地步，就像過去一年裡多次暗示的那樣，歐洲真的能盡一份力，支持烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭嗎？

We, I think also have the political will within the population.

我認為民眾的政治意願也存在。

I think we just have to put our money and our political weight where our words have been over the last three years.

我覺得我們必須將我們的金錢和政治份量，放在我們過去三年所說的話上。

Let's talk a bit about the G20 because you were just there at the, at the G20.

我們來聊聊 G20 好了，因為你剛才就在 G20。

We were talking about Ukraine because it did cast a long shadow over the G20 summit, as we were saying.

我們在談論烏克蘭，因為正如我們剛才所說，它確實為 G20 峰會蒙上了一層長長的陰影。

But then you also had this situation where the United States wasn't participating at the G20 and you had South Africa's foreign minister saying at Forum before the G20 summit, and

但接著你也有這樣的情況，美國沒有參與 G20，而南非外長在 G20 峰會前的論壇上說，

I quote, the G20 should send a clear message that the world can move on with or without the US Unquote.

我引用，G20 應該發出一個明確的訊息，無論有沒有美國，世界都可以繼續前進。

你知道，我們稍微退一步來看。

Multilateralism is not the same as US foreign policy leadership.

多邊主義不等同於美國的外交政策領導。

It is deeply regrettable that the US Wasn't present at the summit.

美國缺席峰會，這確實令人深感遺憾。

而我對這次峰會有著矛盾的看法。

But on one hand, I think the South African presidency delivered a clear diplomatic success, that there was a final communique that climate change and other important things featured in this communique.

但一方面，我認為南非擔任主席國取得了明確的外交成功，峰會發布了公報，其中包含了氣候變遷和其他重要議題。

On the other hand, I think it's a pretty sad situation in which our world has gotten itself into that.

另一方面，我認為我們的世界陷入了相當令人悲傷的局面。

We are so thrilled that we got to communicate that mentions climate change.

我們很高興我們能傳達出提及氣候變遷的訊息。

That would have been standard 10 years ago.

So that is a clear sign of how polarized international diplomacy currently is.

所以這清楚地顯示了目前國際外交有多麼兩極化。

So tell us where international diplomacy is headed.

所以，請告訴我們國際外交的走向。

You know, the first, the post World War II order really was underpinned by the Western alliance and particularly by the United States being involved in the way that it was.

你知道，第一次，也就是二戰後的秩序，實際上是由西方聯盟支撐的，特別是美國以那樣的方式參與其中。

Given what we've just seen at the G20 and the lack of the US involvement over there.

鑑於我們剛剛在 G20 上看到的，以及美國在那裡缺席。

Multilateralism is that moving ahead without the US it is moving ahead without the US in certain instances.

多邊主義是否正在沒有美國的情況下推進，在某些情況下確實是沒有美國的。

But let's face it, multilateralism will always be better if the world's richest and most powerful country is involved and actually drives it.

但我們必須承認，如果世界上最富有、最有權勢的國家參與其中並實際推動，多邊主義總是會更好。

But we have seen efforts led by the Global south on very specific topics.

但我們確實看到南方國家在非常具體的議題上領導的努力。

We've seen an increasing amount of south south cooperation.

我們看到南方國家之間的合作越來越多。

And we have seen ad hoc coalitions of the willing.

我們也看到臨時組成的「願意聯盟」。

Would say multilateralism isn't dead, but it's also not healthy.

我會說多邊主義沒有死，但它也不健康。

Benedikt Franke, CEO of the Munich Security Conference.

慕尼黑安全會議的執行長 Benedikt Franca。