Name: 為什麼沃倫-巴菲特剛剛賣掉了他所有的股票 (Why Warren Buffet Just Sold All His Stocks)
Uploaded: 2025-11-05T17:57:25.000Z
Duration: 12 min 31 s

程度副詞

Berkshire Hathaway just released their quarterly reports.

柏克夏海瑟威剛發布了他們的季報。

Warren Buffett now is sitting on almost $400 billion worth of cash.

華倫·巴菲特現在坐擁將近 4000 億美元的現金。

Berkshire is by far the company that has the largest cash pile.

柏克夏是目前現金最多的公司。

It has a 4 trillion dollar valuation, and yet its cash pile is just $100 billion.

它的市值是 4 兆美元，但現金只有 1000 億美元。

So essentially, Warren Buffett is sitting on four times more cash than than a $4 trillion company.

所以基本上，華倫·巴菲特擁有的現金是市值 4 兆美元公司的四倍。

Berkshire Hathaway also did not participate in any kind of stock buybacks.

柏克夏海瑟威也沒有參與任何股票回購。

Even though that Warren Buffett has stepped down as the CEO of the company, he is still the chairman of the company.

雖然華倫·巴菲特已經卸下執行長職位，但他仍然是公司的董事長。

And the company follows the rules and the guidelines that Warren Buffett built into the company.

公司也遵循著華倫·巴菲特為公司建立的規則和準則。

So let's find out what exactly Warren Buffett is planning to do with $400 billion.

所以，讓我們來看看華倫·巴菲特到底打算怎麼運用這 4000 億美元。

Investors are worried about Berkshire, and the stock has been going down over the last six months.

投資人擔心柏克夏，股價過去六個月一直在下跌。

It has reached its peak of $530 back in April and March, but

股價在四月和三月達到 530 美元的最高點，但

since then, the stock has fallen down to $475 per stock.

從那之後，股價就跌到每股 475 美元。

The most important thing to pay attention to is that there were no buybacks in the last quarter.

最重要的是要注意，上個季度沒有進行股票回購。

Warren Buffett is in favor of stock buybacks because there are essentially two ways that a company can return that cash back back into the hands of the investors.

華倫·巴菲特支持股票回購，因為公司基本上可以透過兩種方式將現金返還給投資人。

When you directly simply pay dividends to your investors, you built a business, you made a profits, and

當你直接支付股息給投資人時，你建立了一家公司，你賺取了利潤，然後

now that profit goes as cash into the hands of investors.

現在這些利潤就以現金的形式進入投資人手中。

The second way to give that money to investors is through stock buybacks.

第二種將錢還給投資人的方式是透過股票回購。

That's when the company taxes its free cash flow and starts buying its own stocks.

那就是公司將其自由現金流納稅，然後開始回購自己的股票。

So when you reduce the number of outstanding shares while the demand is still the same in the market, the price of the stock instantly rises, and

所以當你在市場需求不變的情況下減少了在外流通股數，股價就會瞬間上漲，

So even though that you did not actually receive real cash from the company, the value of your stocks have jumped dramatically.

所以即使你實際上沒有從公司收到現金，你的股票價值也大幅躍升。

Now you can sell them for a higher price.

現在你可以用更高的價格賣掉它們。

所以你的淨資產實際上就增長了。

Some people might not be a fan of that strategy, but it has actually worked for multiple companies.

有些人可能不喜歡這種策略，但它確實讓許多公司獲利。

In fact, it's one of the reasons that allowed Apple to become the most valuable company in the world back in 20, 20 and 20, because they have massively begun buying their own stocks.

事實上，這也是讓蘋果在 2020 年成為全球最有價值公司之一的原因，因為他們大量開始回購自己的股票。

You made a lot of money and you don't see a single good reason to deploy that capital.

你賺了很多錢，而且找不到任何好理由來部署這些資本。

Yes, you can take that money invested in a startup, but that startup is risky.

沒錯，你可以把這些錢投資在一家新創公司，但那家新創公司有風險。

if you are not sure how you can grow that money, the best way to do that is when you realize that your stock is undervalued.

如果你不確定如何讓這些錢增值，最好的方法就是當你意識到你的股票被低估了。

And you, as the one who is running the business, you know the value of your stock.

而你，作為經營者，你知道你的股票價值。

You know your business, you know your products, you know what you're about to expect.

你瞭解你的事業，瞭解你的產品，知道接下來會發生什麼。

So buying back your own stock sometimes times is the best strategy.

所以有時候回購自家股票是最好的策略。

If you look at the history of stock buybacks of Berkshire, you see that they have actually went down dramatically over the last few years.

如果你看看柏克夏股票回購的歷史，你會發現過去幾年它們實際上大幅下降了。

In 2020, they spent almost $25 billion buying back their own stocks.

2020 年，他們花了近 250 億美元回購自家股票。

That's actually a lot of money for a company like Berkshire.

對於像柏克夏這樣的公司來說，這確實是一筆鉅款。

This was the moment where the stock was actually trading below its value.

這就是股票實際交易價格低於其價值的時刻。

If Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time, the he certainly knows the value of Berkshire stocks.

如果華倫·巴菲特是史上最偉大的投資者，那麼他肯定知道柏克夏股票的價值。

He knows at what price the stock of the Berkshire is undervalued or overvalued.

他知道柏克夏股票在什麼價位被低估或高估。

So it seems like back in 2020 and 2021, according to his opinion, Berkshire was insanely undervalued, which is why he spent more than $50 billion buying back the stock.

所以看起來，根據他的看法，2020 年和 2021 年時，柏克夏被嚴重低估，這也是為什麼他花了超過 500 億美元回購股票。

In 2022, that number has actually shrunk dramatically.

到了 2022 年，這個數字其實大幅縮減了。

In fact, that was when the market correction happened after the Fed lowered interest rates.

事實上，那時候是聯準會降息後市場修正的時機。

And yet he still spent about $7.8 billion buying back Berkshire Hathaway.

然而，他還是花了約 78 億美元回購柏克夏海瑟威。

In 2023, that number has increased, but that was over.

2023 年，這個數字有增加，但那已經是。

Yes, next year he actually spent some money buying back Berkshire stocks.

是的，隔年他確實花了一些錢回購柏克夏股票。

But in 2025, that number is essentially almost zero.

但到了 2025 年，這個數字基本上趨近於零。

In 2025, Warren Buffett did not spend a lot of money buying back his stocks, which means that maybe, according to Warren Buffett, the stock is actually overv.

到了 2025 年，華倫·巴菲特並沒有花太多錢回購自家股票，這表示，或許在華倫·巴菲特看來，這檔股票其實已經被高估了。

If Warren Buffett is not buying his own stock now you know why some investors are actually worried and do not trust or think that maybe Berkshire Hathaway is actually overvalued.

如果華倫·巴菲特現在都不買自家股票了，你就會知道為什麼有些投資人其實很擔心，不信任，或者認為柏克夏海瑟威其實已經被高估。

There is also a very interesting correlation between the buybacks and the cash position.

股票回購和現金部位之間，也有一個非常有趣的關聯性。

So in 2020, Berkshire Hathaway had $138 billion.

所以在 2020 年，柏克夏海瑟威有 1380 億美元。

即使在那時候，柏克夏也擁有大量的現金。

And it's normal for Berkshire to have far more cash than many other businesses out there, because Berkshire is not a tradition.

對柏克夏來說，持有比其他許多公司多得多的現金是很正常的，因為柏克夏不是一家傳統的。

它們不會去開發或建造什麼東西。

They take investors money and they buy already established businesses.

它們會拿投資人的錢，去收購已經建立好的企業。

So if you're an investor, you always want to keep a huge position of cash so that when the opportunity is going to strike, you have the means to buy that company, you have the means to buy that stock.

所以，如果你是投資人，你總是會想保留大量的現金部位，這樣當機會來臨時，你才有辦法收購那家公司，才有辦法買進那檔股票。

While if you actually already deployed all of your capital and an opportunity came, then you don't have the money to profit out of it.

反之，如果你已經把所有資金都投入了，而機會卻來了，那你就會沒有錢可以從中獲利。

You're no longer an investor that can actually take advantage of future opportunities.

你就無法成為一個真正能把握未來機會的投資人了。

By 2021, that cash bias increased slightly, but it wasn't actually a dramatic increase.

到了2021年，這個現金偏好稍微增加了一點，但其實並沒有大幅增加。

By 2022, that number has gone down dramatically, which tells you that in 2021, he actually spent a lot of money investing in the stock market.

到了2022年，這個數字大幅下降，這告訴我們，在2021年，他其實花了很多錢投資股市。

And yes, 2021 was actually one of the best years for the market.

沒錯，2021年其實是股市表現最好的一年之一。

First of all, it was clear that the pandemic is not going to destroy the world, so you can actually start investing.

首先，很明顯疫情不會毀滅世界，所以你其實可以開始投資了。

And in 2021, inflation wasn't actually that high.

而且在2021年，通膨其實沒有那麼高。

So investing in the stock market was actually by far one of the greatest options.

所以投資股市，其實是當時最好的選擇。

The Fed increased interest rates and there was a massive market correction, which is why at this point, Warren Buffett instantly began increasing his cash position from $128 billion to as high as 1 billion.

聯準會升息，而且市場出現了大規模修正，這就是為什麼在這個時間點，華倫·巴菲特立刻開始增加他的現金部位，從1280億美元增加到10億美元。

He increased his cash position by about $40 billion.

他將現金部位增加了大約400億美元。

And in 2023, he started massively buying U.S. treasury bills and doubled his cash position to $334 billion.

而在2023年，他開始大量購買美國國庫券，並將現金部位翻倍至3340億美元。

When I say that Berkshire has a lot of cash, it doesn't actually mean physical cash.

當我說柏克夏擁有大量現金時，這其實不代表實體現金。

Usually this is the cash that has been invested in short term treasury bills, which are easily convertible into cash, because you want that money to be invested somewhere and you want it to generate some interest.

通常這些現金會被投資在短期國庫券，這些券很容易轉換成現金，因為你希望這筆錢能被投資在某個地方，並且產生一些利息。

By 2025, that number has increased to $381 billion, which is also a major increase since the end of last year.

到了2025年，這個數字增加到3810億美元，這也是自去年底以來的大幅成長。

So why Warren Buffett is not taking that money and profiting out of the AI revolution?

那麼，為什麼華倫·巴菲特不利用這筆錢從AI革命中獲利呢？

Why isn't he throwing that money into the stocks that are rising dramatically?

他為什麼不把這些錢投入那些股價飆升的股票呢？

Why isn't he buying Nvidia stock, Microsoft stock?

他為什麼不買輝達（Nvidia）的股票、微軟（Microsoft）的股票呢？

It seems like Warren Buffett is actually waiting for a really great opportunity.

看來華倫·巴菲特其實在等待一個絕佳的機會。

Between 2023 and 2025, Warren Buffett came up with a completely different investing strategy.

在2023年到2025年間，華倫·巴菲特提出了一個完全不同的投資策略。

He's changed his strategy because treasury bills started providing or offering very high yields on their investments.

他改變策略是因為國庫券開始提供非常高的投資收益。

In 2023, short term yields were offering about 4, 5.5% in interest.

2023年，短期收益率提供了大約4%到5.5%的利息。

So essentially, you could just loan your money to the government, and

所以基本上，你只要把錢借給政府，

you will be receiving almost 5.5% in interest.

And that's a great investment because you're not risking investing in all of those overvalued stocks.

這是一項很棒的投資，因為你不用冒險投資那些被高估的股票。

At the same time, you're receiving actual physical cash from the government.

同時，你也能從政府那裡收到實質的現金。

On one side, you're earning 5.4% in interest rate.

On the other side, you can easily convert that money into cash for every hundred billion dollars invested in Treasuries.

另一方面，每投資一百億美元在國庫券上，你都可以輕鬆將這筆錢轉換成現金。

So on $300 billion, he would make $16.5 billion.

所以在三千億美元的資金上，他可以賺到一百六十五億美元。

On $400 billion, you're already making like more than $20 billion in real cash.

在四千億美元的資金上，你已經可以賺到超過兩百億美元的實際現金了。

These are not just appreciations in stock values, but rather the actual cash that you're receiving.

這不只是股票價值的增長，而是你實際收到的現金。

And it actually made sense because 5.4% is higher than the inflation rate of 3.2%.

而且這確實說得通，因為5.4%高於3.2%的通貨膨脹率。

And the Fed made it clear that it will continue the policy of trying to lower interest, to increase interest rates, to lower inflation to the point where we get back to the targeted 2%.

聯準會也已經表明，他們會繼續實施試圖降低利率、提高利率以降低通膨的政策，直到回到目標的2%。

So Warren Buffett was confident I'm going to buy as many Treasuries as possible.

所以華倫·巴菲特很有信心，他要盡可能多買國庫券。

We go back to inflation rate of 2% and I'm making 5%.

我們回到2%的通膨率，而我賺取5%。

這看起來是一項非常棒的投資。

And then I can take that money, buy back more stocks.

然後我就可以拿那些錢，回購更多股票。

So reducing the number of outstanding shares in the market, which is going to lead to a higher stock price.

是以減少市場上的流通股數，這將會導致股價上漲。

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為什麼沃倫-巴菲特剛剛賣掉了他所有的股票 (Why Warren Buffet Just Sold All His Stocks)

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