Name: 為德國的崩潰做好準備 (Get Ready For The Collapse of Germany)
Uploaded: 2025-11-04T18:21:41.000Z
Duration: 16 min 6 s

Germany has been stuck in a recession for over three years.

德國已經陷入衰退超過三年了。

過去簡單式

Porsche, the pride of German engineering, just reported a staggering loss of $1.1 billion.

德國工藝的驕傲 Porsche，剛剛公佈了驚人的 11 億美元虧損。

祈使句型

A company with world class infrastructure, massive global brands and massive economies of scale is bleeding cash.

一家擁有世界級基礎設施、龐大全球品牌和龐大經濟規模的公司，正在賠錢。

Volkswagen, which is one of the major car manufacturers in the world, just reported that it is going to close three major factories inside Germany.

Volkswagen，作為全球主要的汽車製造商之一，剛剛宣佈將關閉德國境內三家主要工廠。

BMW, Mercedes and almost every major German brand is struggling to stay alive.

BMW、Mercedes 和幾乎所有主要的德國品牌都在努力求生。

If giant companies with deep pockets that can afford billions of dollars are barely staying alive, what do you think is happening to small businesses?

如果連財力雄厚、能承擔數十億美元損失的巨頭公司都在勉強維持，你覺得小型企業會怎麼樣？

This is not a normal recession that fades away in a few quarters.

這不是一個幾季後就會消失的普通衰退。

This is structural, deep, long lasting crisis.

這是結構性、深層、長期的危機。

Germany is in a decline and this is just the beginning.

德國正在走下坡，而這僅僅是個開始。

Germany, which was once called the engine of the European Union, has now become a sick man of the eu.

德國，曾經被譽為歐盟的引擎，如今卻成了歐盟的病夫。

So if Germany is going to go down, it risks pulling down with it the entire European Union.

所以如果德國要走下坡，就有可能把整個歐盟一起拖垮。

This is what is wrong with the German economy.

The last three years has been very harsh for the German economy.

過去三年對德國經濟來說非常艱難。

你看不到任何一點正面的消息。

The most positive quarter was 0.3% growth in GDP.

最樂觀的一個季度是 GDP 成長 0.3%。

Even though that unemployment in Germany has been pretty low at 4.1%.

即使德國的失業率 pretty low，只有 4.1%。

That is lower than the unemployment rate of the United States where GDP grows way faster than Germany.

這比美國的失業率還低，而美國的 GDP 成長遠比德國快。

If German economy is not growing when it's operating at full capacity, it has no chance to grow at all.

如果德國經濟在滿載運轉時都沒在成長，那它根本沒有機會成長了。

It, it can lower further the unemployment rate to 3%.

Even if it does that, it is not going to change a lot.

So every industry in Germany is going down.

所以德國的各行各業都在走下坡。

To understand what is wrong with the German economy you have to understand what are the major drivers of the German economy.

要了解德國經濟出了什麼問題，你得先知道德國經濟的主要驅動力是什麼。

It has been growing its economy by manufacturing things in Germany.

德國透過在境內製造產品來發展經濟。

Everybody knows that if it's made in Germany, then it's top quality.

大家都知道，德國製造就是品質保證。

And that's why demand for German goods across the globe has been increasingly high.

這也是為什麼全球對德國產品的需求一直很高。

So Germany would manufacture cars and high quality products and would ship them to China.

所以德國會製造汽車和高品質的產品，然後運送到中國。

And in exchange cash will move out of China to Germany and, and

而相對地，現金就會從中國流向德國，

That money would be spent in growing the Germany's infrastructure, in building more trains or simply building a far growing better economy.

這些錢會用來發展德國的基礎設施，建造更多火車，或者簡單地建立一個更強大的經濟體。

Germany would manufacture goods and will ship them to the United States.

德國會製造商品並將它們運送到美國。

Cash would come back to Germany, growing the German economy.

現金會迴流德國，促進德國經濟的成長。

And most importantly, Germany would ship a lot of their costs back into the European Union.

最重要的是，德國會將很多成本轉移回歐盟。

And a lot of cash would move from around the European Union back to Germany growing the German economy.

大量的現金會從歐盟各地流回德國，促進德國經濟的成長。

So if you look at the largest economies in the European Union, you see that by far, Germany dominates the entire European Union.

所以，如果你看看歐盟最大的經濟體，你會發現德國遠遠主導著整個歐盟。

But without Germany, European Union cannot possibly exist because France is droning in debt.

但沒有德國，歐盟根本不可能存在，因為法國深陷債務。

And now you see the most major problem here.

而現在，你看到了這裡最主要的問題。

Prior to 2024, before Donald Trump became the president and imposed such high tariffs on everybody, including Germany, Germany could sell their cars all across the United States.

在2024年之前，在唐納·川普成為總統並對包括德國在內的所有人徵收如此高的關稅之前，德國可以將他們的汽車銷往美國各地。

you cars, please either build your cars in the United States or you will pay a 10% tariff.

你的汽車，請在美國設廠，否則將支付10%的關稅。

So if Germany was suffering, if German car manufacturers were struggling on top of that, if they have to pay an additional 10% in tariff, the demand for German cars is certainly going to go down.

所以，如果德國正在遭受痛苦，如果德國汽車製造商還在掙扎，如果他們還要支付額外的10%關稅，對德國汽車的需求肯定會下降。

By losing the United States alone, that is already a huge hit for Germany.

僅僅是失去美國這一項，對德國來說就已經是個巨大的打擊了。

Germany is also losing China because China's domestic brands are taking over.

德國也正在失去中國，因為中國的國產品牌正在崛起。

Ten years ago, most people would laugh at you if you tell them that you have purchased a Chinese car.

十年前，如果你告訴大家你買了一輛中國車，大多數人會覺得你在開玩笑。

但現今的中國汽車已經是主流了。

Countries across the globe are importing Chinese cars in millions.

全球各國都在進口數百萬輛中國汽車。

Yes, you don't see them in the streets of the United States because There is a 100% tariff on every Chinese car that you import to the United States, but

是的，你在美國街頭看不到它們，因為進口到美國的中國汽車要支付百分之百的關稅，但是

In fact, because there are minimal tariffs on Chinese EVs, Chinese EVs have dominated even the European Union, overtaking German car manufacturers.

事實上，因為對中國電動車的關稅很低，中國電動車已經主導了歐洲聯盟，超越了德國汽車製造商。

Prior to that, China was a huge market for German car manufacturers because, yes, there were Chinese car brands, yes, there were tariffs on German cars.

在此之前，中國是德國汽車製造商的龐大市場，因為，是的，有中國汽車品牌，是的，對德國汽車有關稅。

But because German cars were far more superior than Chinese cars, people in China comfortably purchased those cars.

但因為德國汽車遠比中國汽車優越，中國人很樂意購買那些車。

But now, because the quality of Chinese cars is now matching the quality of German cars, and

但現在，因為中國汽車的品質已經跟上德國汽車的品質，而且

in some cases, those Chinese cars are even better than German cars, Chinese consumers more and more are turning into local Chinese brands.

在某些情況下，那些中國汽車甚至比德國汽車還好，中國消費者越來越轉向在地的中國品牌。

So Germany is essentially losing market share.

所以德國基本上正在失去市場佔有率。

And finally, Germany is even losing the European Union.

最後，德國甚至在失去歐盟市場。

Not because the European Union is imposing tariffs on Germany, which they cannot possibly do that because European market is one giant market.

這不是因為歐盟對德國課徵關稅，他們根本不可能這麼做，因為歐洲市場是一個巨大的單一市場。

France is filled with debt and is barely trying to pass its budget.

法國債務纏身，幾乎無法通過預算。

Italy is one of the most indebted countries in the world, and

義大利是世界上負債最多的國家之一，而且

I am not even gonna talk about Spain or Greece.

我甚至不想談論西班牙或希臘。

So demand or the purchasing power within European Union is going down.

所以歐盟內部的需求或購買力正在下降。

So Germany is literally losing every major market that made German economy great to begin with.

是以，德國正在失去讓德國經濟一開始變得偉大的每一個主要市場。

And the statistics clearly show that since 2022, exports have fallen dramatically.

統計數據清楚顯示，自2022年以來，出口已大幅下滑。

And since then, pretty much almost every single quarter was A negative quarter for German exports.

從那時起，幾乎每一個季度德國的出口都呈現負成長。

And this is the solution that they came up with.

而這就是他們想出來的解決辦法。

但這是一個非常錯誤的解決辦法。

If you look at countries, if you list them down as the most response financially responsible countries, you will see Germany at the top of the list.

如果你看看各個國家，把它們列為財務上最負責任的國家，你會看到德國名列前茅。

Because Germany has always been responsible with its finances.

因為德國一直以來在財務上都很謹慎。

Since it has a law that is called a debt break, you cannot possibly borrow more than 0.35% of the GDP.

它有一條叫做「債務煞車」的法律，你不能借超過 GDP 的 0.35%。

That law was in place so that Germany does not over borrow its money and will be filled with debt just like Japan, France and the United States is today.

這條法律的目的是為了讓德國不要過度借貸，才不會像現在的日本、法國和美國一樣負債累累。

That is a very great law and that allowed German debt to GDP ratio to be some of the lowest all across the globe.

這是一條非常棒的法律，讓德國的債務 GDP 比率成為全球最低之一。

But now they have made major amendments to that law.

但現在他們對這條法律做了重大的修正。

From now onwards they made an exception that if those borrowings are for defense and infrastructure projects, then theoretically Germany can borrow as much as it wants.

從現在開始，他們做了一個例外規定，如果這些借款是用於國防和基礎建設專案，那麼理論上德國可以隨心所欲地借錢。

As long as that money is spent to improve Germany's defense capabilities or to improve the infrastructure projects.

只要這些錢是用來提升德國的國防能力或改善基礎建設專案。

Which is why Germany has announced a $500 billion infrastructure projects to to renovate everything, every infrastructure project that exists there in Germany.

這也是為什麼德國宣佈了 5000 億美元的基礎建設專案，用來翻新德國境內所有現有的基礎建設。

But that path hasn't always worked for countries.

但這條路徑對其他國家來說，並非總是奏效。

One of the best examples I can give you is Japan.

我能給你們最好的例子之一就是日本。

Back in late 1980s and 90s when the Japanese economy has collapsed.

回溯到 1980 年代末和 90 年代，當時日本經濟已經崩潰。

It was going through a deflation, it was in a recession, it wasn't growing at all.

它正經歷通貨緊縮，處於衰退之中，完全沒有成長。

So Japan wanted to inflate the economy with a lot of debt to finally push the Japanese economy and the GDP to grow.

所以日本希望能透過大量債務來刺激經濟，最終推動日本經濟和 GDP 的成長。

It helped in the beginning because the Japanese government threw trillions or hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy and it worked slightly.

起初確實有幫助，因為日本政府向經濟注入了數兆或數千億美元，而且稍微奏效了。

But since then that didn't actually work out in the long run.

但從那之後，這在長期來看並沒有真正奏效。

And the Japanese GDP today is as much as it was back in 1990s.

而日本今天的 GDP 和 1990 年代時差不多。

However, the debt to GDP ratio has grown from about 50% in 1980s to to as much as 220%.

然而，債務 GDP 比率從 1980 年代的約 50% 成長到高達 220%。

Japan today has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world.

日本今天的債務 GDP 比率是全球最高的之一。

Other nations that have taken this path didn't end well.

走上這條路的其他國家，下場都不太好。

France, that was relying on debt a lot over the last 20 years today cannot possibly pass a budget because they have a huge hole in the entire budget.

法國過去 20 年來嚴重依賴債務，現在根本無法通過預算，因為整個預算出現了巨大的漏洞。

The United Kingdom is on the same path as well Greece, Spain, Italy and many other nations.

英國也走在同樣的路上，還有希臘、西班牙、義大利以及許多其他國家。

So this path that Germany is taking is only going to take Germany down and will push it in a much bigger problem.

所以德國走的這條路只會讓德國走向衰敗，並將其推向更大的問題。

To fix the problem we have to understand what is the real problem.

要解決問題，我們必須瞭解真正的問題是什麼。

If we don't identify the real problem, then the solution is always going to be wrong.

如果我們找不出真正問題所在，那麼解決方案就永遠會是錯的。

If you look at the Germany's economic growth, you will see that it was primarily happening between the year 2000 to 2022.

如果你看看德國的經濟成長，你會發現它主要發生在 2000 年到 2022 年之間。

First of all, the there was a weak China.

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為德國的崩潰做好準備 (Get Ready For The Collapse of Germany)

entire

struggle

massive

infrastructure