Name: "大事即將來臨......沒有人準備好" (“Something Big Is Coming… And No One Is Ready”)
Uploaded: 2025-10-22T17:59:34.000Z
Duration: 14 min 22 s

情態副詞

Tensions between the United States and China are growing, especially over rare earth minerals.

美國和中國之間的緊張關係正在加劇，尤其是在稀土礦物方面。

After China imposed some restrictions on the rare earth minerals, Donald Trump has renewed his tariffs on China.

在中國對稀土礦物實施一些限制後，唐納·川普重新對中國課徵關稅。

程度副詞

As if we are back to day one, as if trade war is just starting.

好像我們又回到原點，好像貿易戰才剛開始。

Just when we thought that the two largest economies are about to find a common language.

就在我們以為這兩個最大的經濟體就要找到共同語言的時候。

It seems like that is not going to happen.

rare earths are just the beginning because the world is entering into a completely new phase, a phase that you and I haven't seen because this is going to be an ultra competitive world.

稀土只是個開始，因為世界正進入一個全新的階段，一個你我從未見過的階段，因為這將是一個極度競爭的世界。

Since 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the world moved into a peaceful period where most countries traded with each other.

自從1991年蘇聯解體以來，世界進入了一個和平時期，大多數國家彼此貿易。

And everybody accepted that the United States is the global superpower and the US Dollar is the global reserve currency.

而且大家都接受美國是全球超級大國，美元是全球儲備貨幣。

Everybody simply accepted US companies as the largest and the most powerful corporations in the world.

大家也都接受美國公司是全球最大、最有權力的公司。

So investors all across the globe invested in the United States.

所以全球的投資者都投資美國。

So if you want to make money, you invest in the United States.

所以如果你想賺錢，你就投資美國。

And it doesn't matter where you are, whether you are in the European Union, in Japan, China or anywhere else.

而且不管你在哪裡，無論你是歐洲聯盟、日本、中國或其他任何地方。

If you want to maximize your profits and be confident that your investments are safe, then you simply buy either U.

如果你想最大化你的利潤，並且有信心你的投資是安全的，那麼你就買美國國庫券。

S. Treasury bills or you invest in the U.

這就是為什麼美國GDP相較於許多其他經濟體，成長得非常快速。

And that's why the US GDP grew exponentially fast compared to many other economies.

即使歐洲聯盟的人口也比美國多很多。

Even the European Union has far more people than the United States.

And yet the entire European Union cannot catch up with the United States.

而且整個歐洲聯盟都追不上美國。

And if you compare it to other nations such as Japan, that almost overtook the United states back in 1980s and 90s, collapsed since then, and

如果你跟日本這樣的國家比，日本在八零九零年代差點就超越美國了，但從那之後就崩潰了，

has no chance to compete with the United States.

When you look at the US debt, when you look at that $38 trillion, it seems like the United States is in crisis.

當你看到美國的債務，看到那三兆八千億美元，你會覺得美國好像陷入危機了。

But on the other side, it signals to the world that look how many investors of how much wealth is spent or loaned to the United States.

但另一方面，這也向全世界傳達了一個訊息：看看有多少投資者、多少財富被投入或借給了美國。

Investors across the globe are so confident in the United States that they're willing to loan the United States $38 trillion.

全球的投資者對美國非常有信心，願意借給美國三兆八千億美元。

And that debt is projected to grow to $50 trillion over the next 10 years.

而且這筆債務預計在未來十年內會成長到五兆美元。

這就是全世界普遍運作的方式。

You have so much wealth, that wealth is called capital.

你擁有這麼多財富，這些財富就叫做資本。

This capital is being held by foreign banks, foreign investors, by people all across the globe.

這些資本由外國銀行、外國投資者，以及全球各地的人們持有。

And when you're sitting on so much wealth, your main goal is to invest it and maximize your returns.

當你坐擁如此龐大的財富時，你的主要目標就是將它投資出去，並最大化你的回報。

And if you're sitting on just currency, then there is something called inflation.

如果你只是持有現金，就會面臨所謂的通貨膨脹。

So your wealth is getting smaller and smaller.

You're literally losing money by sitting on so much cath.

So these smart rich people, they know that they have to allocate that capital smartly.

所以這些聰明的富人知道，他們必須聰明地分配這些資本。

他們必須將其投資到某個地方。

And the United States, because it's the most powerful economy and it's the best place where you can maximize the returns, that capital was flowing into the United States.

而美國，因為它是最強大的經濟體，也是你能最大化回報的最佳地點，所以資本就流向了美國。

Either it was invested in the U.S. bond market or in the U.S. stock market.

這些資本要嘛是投資在美國的債市，要嘛是投資在美國的股市。

And that's why the United States created the world's most powerful corporations, from Apple to Microsoft.

這也是為什麼美國能創造出像是 Apple、Microsoft 等全球最強大的公司。

It's not a coincidence that even the AI revolution is primarily being taken or held in the United States.

這不是巧合，就連AI革命也主要是在美國進行或掌握。

And that's why we have companies such as OpenAI or Nvidia that are in the United States.

這也是為什麼我們會有像OpenAI或Nvidia這些在美國的公司。

So these companies are paying taxes in the United States.

These people are also paying income tax and payroll tax to the United States.

這些人也向美國繳納所得稅和薪資稅。

And the investors who deployed their capital into the United States will make their share of the profits.

而將資本投入美國的投資者，也會獲得他們的利潤份額。

Essentially, it has turned into a never ending machine that keeps cycling, that keeps turning around and making the United States wealthier and wealthier and wealthier.

基本上，這變成了一個永無止境的機器，不斷循環、不斷運轉，讓美國越來越富裕。

And because these corporations are obligated by law to use the dollars because there are US and they're operating on the US soil, everybody else who is investing in these corporations will find it much more convenient and much more profitable to invest in US Dollars because you can't be investing in Apple or Microsoft or OpenAI or any of those corporations with any other currency.

由於這些公司依法必須使用美元，因為它們在美國境內營運，所以任何投資這些公司的其他人，都會發現用美元投資更方便、更有利可圖，因為你無法用其他貨幣投資Apple、Microsoft、OpenAI或任何這些公司。

So if all investors, if all rich people across the globe are forced to use the dollars because they want to maximize their returns by investing in the US companies, suddenly using the US dollar becomes more convenient.

所以，如果全球所有投資者、所有有錢人都被迫使用美元，因為他們想透過投資美國公司來最大化回報，那麼使用美元突然變得更方便了。

And that's what keeps the United States dollar as the global reserve currency.

這就是讓美元持續成為全球儲備貨幣的原因。

It's not because they are forced to do that, but

rather because it's much more profitable and much more convenient to use the dollar where you can maximize your returns.

而是因為在你可以最大化回報的地方使用美元，會更划算、更方便。

But that also creates a dynamic where the cost of borrowing money becomes cheaper.

但這也造成了借貸成本降低的局面。

Both for the government, for the companies, for people.

United States has some of the lowest interest rates in the world in relation to its inflation.

美國的利率相對於其通貨膨脹率，是全球最低的之一。

That's what allows the US Government to borrow so much money.

這使得美國政府能夠借到這麼多錢。

Like no other government in the world has the ability to borrow $38 trillion, it's going to collapse.

就像世界上沒有其他政府有能力借到 38 兆美元，這會導致崩潰。

The only country that can afford something like that is the United States.

U.S. companies can actually borrow money much cheaply compared to the rest of the world.

相較於世界其他國家，美國的公司實際上能以更低的成本借到錢。

So if you are a company, you would move to the United States because that will give you an edge over everyone else and that will help you to dominate your industry.

所以如果你是一家公司，你會想搬到美國，因為這會讓你比別人更有優勢，並幫助你在產業中稱霸。

If you are in the US getting a mortgage or getting an auto loan or getting different kind of loans, it's much cheaper compared to the rest of the world, again compared to the inflation, because there are countries where you have a lower interest rate, but

如果你在美國申請房貸、車貸或各種貸款，會比世界其他地方便宜很多，再次強調是相對於通膨。因為有些國家利率比較低，但

these countries have much smaller inflation.

這些國家的通貨膨脹率卻高得多。

So you always have to take that into account.

所以你總是得把這一點考慮進去。

So when the country and the companies and people can borrow money at a cheaper interest rate, they will borrow more money.

當國家、公司和個人能以較低的利率借到錢時，他們就會借更多錢。

So more money will be invested in the country that will reinforce the growth and the economy will grow even faster than the rest of the world.

這樣就會有更多資金投入該國，進而強化成長，經濟成長速度甚至會比世界其他國家更快。

Inflation in the US is about 3% right now.

The US government right now is borrowing money at 3.9%.

美國政府目前的借款利率是 3.9%。

So essentially it's almost 1% higher than than the inflation rate.

所以基本上比通膨率高了將近 1%。

So even at that rate, where the US government has $38 trillion in debt, it is simply borrowing money at 1% interest rates.

所以即使在這種情況下，美國政府背負著 38 兆美元的債務，它也只是以 1% 的利率借錢。

Because if inflation is 3% and you're borrowing money at 4%, the real cost of borrowing money is simply 1%.

因為如果通膨率是 3%，而你以 4% 借錢，借錢的實際成本就只是 1%。

And the 3% inflation rate is not even the real inflation rate.

而且 3% 的通膨率甚至不是實際的通膨率。

This is the CPI data that has been based on selected data by the government.

這是政府根據選定的數據得出的 CPI 數據。

If you take the real inflation the way we had, we used to calculate inflation back in 1970s and 80s, the real inflation is about 7 to 10%.

如果我們按照 1970 年代和 80 年代計算通膨的方式來計算實際通膨，實際通膨大約是 7% 到 10%。

So essentially the US government is borrowing money at 4% interest rate, while the real inflation is 7%.

所以基本上美國政府是以 4% 的利率借錢，而實際通膨率是 7%。

So investors are literally giving money to the US government even when they know that they're losing money.

所以投資者即使知道自己正在虧錢，實際上也是把錢給了美國政府。

Do you see how powerful it makes the United States?

And the only reason they would do something like that is because the United States is considered a safe haven.

他們之所以會這樣做，唯一的原因就是因為美國被視為一個避險天堂。

The only asset today in the world, besides gold, that you would trust completely with your heart are the U.S.

今天世界上除了黃金，你唯一能全心全意信任的資產就是美國

Yes, the dynamic of that is slightly shifting because the world is moving into a completely new world.

是的，這種動態正在稍微轉變，因為世界正進入一個全新的時代。

But nonetheless, that has been the case at least since 1945.

但儘管如此，至少自 1945 年以來一直都是這樣。

And that's what made the United States such a powerful economy.

這也讓美國成為一個如此強大的經濟體。

And now we are entering into a new competitive world, at least since 1991.

而現在，至少自 1991 年以來，我們正進入一個全新的競爭世界。

I mean, it's very difficult to compare the United States with the Soviet Union because the US Is a capitalistic country.

我的意思是，很難將美國與蘇聯相比，因為美國是一個資本主義國家。

And Soviet Union back in the days was a communism.

There was no, there was no capitalism over there, so businesses wouldn't thrive there, so money wouldn't flow into the Soviet Union.

那裡沒有資本主義，所以企業在那裡不會蓬勃發展，金錢也不會流入蘇聯。

But still, nonetheless, there was some kind of attention.

但儘管如此，仍然有一些關注。

Now the United States is facing a real challenge.

現在美國正面對一個真正的挑戰。

A country that has capitalism, that is thriving in business, that is creating a business environment, and

一個擁有資本主義、蓬勃發展商業、創造商業環境的國家，

So the United States, for the first time ever, is facing a real competition.

所以美國，有史以來第一次，正面對真正的競爭。

An economy that can literally overtake the United States.

一個經濟體，可以真正超越美國。

The US GDP is about $30 trillion, but that $30 trillion is a nominal GDP.

美國的 GDP 大約是 30 兆美元，但這是名目 GDP。

If you adjust it to inflation, then the real GDP is about $23.7 trillion.

如果你把它們調整通貨膨脹，那麼實質 GDP 大約是 23.7 兆美元。

So the Chinese GDP or the real GDP in China is about $19.4 trillion.

所以中國的 GDP，或是中國的實質 GDP 大約是 19.4 兆美元。

So the real difference between the two nations is about $4 trillion.

所以這兩個國家之間的實質差距大約是 4 兆美元。