Name: 這就是大碰撞前 "總是 "發生的情況 (This is What “Always” Happens Before a Massive Crash)
Uploaded: 2025-10-18T18:23:29.000Z
Duration: 14 min 33 s

This is what always happens before any major stock market crash.

這總是在任何重大股市崩盤前會發生的事。

On one side, it seems impossible to predict a crash.

一方面，似乎不可能預測崩盤。

On the other side, there are two things that always happen before any major crash.

另一方面，任何重大崩盤前總會發生兩件事。

So if you understand how the system works and you understand these two things, you will be able to mathematically predict the next market crash.

所以如果你瞭解系統的運作方式，並且瞭解這兩件事，你就能在數學上預測下一次市場崩盤。

So in this video, we're going to try to answer a few questions.

所以這支影片，我們要試著回答幾個問題。

What are the two things that always happen before any major crash?

任何重大崩盤前總會發生的兩件事是什麼？

And what is the state of the current market?

Whenever the market grows tremendously, it attracts a lot of people.

每當市場大幅成長時，就會吸引很多人。

It's very easy to see the side and not make money when the stock market is growing tremendously.

當股市大幅成長時，很容易只看到一面而沒賺到錢。

But not everybody is ready for a stock market crash or for a stock market growth because not everybody has a lot of capital, not everybody has a lot of cash.

但不是每個人都準備好面對股市崩盤或股市成長，因為不是每個人都有很多資本，不是每個人都有很多現金。

So investors, in order to amplify their returns, always rely on debts.

所以投資者為了最大化他們的回報，總是依賴債務。

They will borrow money and invest in the stock market because that allows them to maximize their returns.

他們會借錢投資股市，因為這樣可以讓他們最大化回報。

Imagine you have just $1,000 and you invested it in the stock market and the market has grown by 10%, you made an extra $100.

想像一下，你只有 1,000 美元，然後你把它投資到股市，股市成長了 10%，你多賺了 100 美元。

But if you use a leverage ratio of 10 to 1 and the stock market has grown by 10%, the now you made instead of 100%, instead of a 10%, you made 100%.

但如果你使用了 10 比 1 的槓桿比例，而股市成長了 10%，那麼你賺到的不是 100%，不是 10%，而是 100%。

So whenever the stock market grows very fast, investors borrow a lot of money, throw it into the stock market.

所以每當股市快速成長時，投資者就會借一大筆錢，然後投入股市。

That leads the market to grow even faster and that amplifies their returns.

這會讓市場成長得更快，並放大他們的回報。

The question is, what is going to happen if the market slightly drops?

問題是，如果市場稍微下跌，會發生什麼事？

In that case, something happens that we call a margin call.

在這種情況下，就會發生我們稱之為「追繳保證金」。

This is when your broker is going to tell you the size of your unrealized losses have matched the size of your portfolio.

這時候你的經紀人會告訴你，你未實現虧損的金額已經等於你投資組合的大小了。

So you either have to deposit cash into your portfolio or account, or you have to exit your position.

所以你必須存入現金到你的投資組合或帳戶，或者你必須出售你的部位。

When the stock market crashes, you don't actually care about that much because the market is going to recover later on and it's just a matter of time.

當股市崩盤時，你其實不太在意，因為市場之後會復甦，這只是時間問題。

So as a long term investor, you don't care about this kind of stock market crashes.

所以作為一個長期投資者，你不會在意這種股市崩盤。

But if you have leveraged your position, you no longer have that option.

但如果你有使用槓桿部位，你就沒有這個選項了。

Either you have to inject cash into your portfolio to avoid a margin call, or you will have to exit your position because you don't have any other option.

你要嘛必須注入現金到你的投資組合以避免追繳保證金，要嘛你必須出售你的部位，因為你沒有其他選擇。

These are unrealized losses because the market simply dropped and the stocks are within your portfolio.

這些是未實現虧損，因為市場只是下跌，股票還在你投資組合裡。

But if your broker will automatically sell your position, then you have no other option and your stocks have been sold.

但如果你的經紀人會自動賣掉你的部位，你就沒有其他選擇了，你的股票已經被賣掉了。

So what allows you to borrow money and deposit into your account is how liquid the market is.

所以，讓你能夠借錢並存入你的帳戶的，是市場的流動性有多高。

If there is a lot of liquidity in the market and a lot of cash in the market, you can simply borrow against your stocks to back up your account.

如果市場流動性很高，而且市場上有足夠的現金，你就可以直接拿股票來借錢，來補足你的帳戶。

Then your broker is not going to exit your positions and you will simply wait until the market is going to recover.

這樣你的經紀人就不會出售你的部位，你就可以等到市場回升。

But if the liquidity is very tight in the market, you don't have that option.

但如果市場的流動性非常緊俏，你就沒有這個選項了。

So leverage amplifies your wins, but it also amplifies your losses.

所以槓桿會放大你的獲利，但也會放大你的虧損。

You either going to make a lot of money or, or you will lose a lot of money.

你要嘛賺很多錢，要嘛就賠很多錢。

You can literally lose the entire size of your portfolio just making a bad move.

你可能因為一個錯誤的決定，就賠掉整個投資組合的資金。

And the stock market is not going to have any mercy on you.

而且股市對你來說一點都不會手下留情。

Leverage and liquidity determines how big the crash is going to be.

槓桿和流動性決定了市場崩盤的規模有多大。

If the stock market crashes, it's not a big deal.

如果股市崩盤，也不是什麼大不了的事。

But if the stock market is heavily over leveraged, then that crash is going to multiply multiple times.

但如果股市的槓桿過高，那次崩盤的規模就會擴大好幾倍。

So which is what leads to a huge stock market crash.

這就是導致股市嚴重崩盤的原因。

And if you look at any major crash throughout the entire history of the stock market, you will see that these two factors, leverage and liquidity, always made the stock market crash a lot worse.

如果你看看股市歷史上任何一次重大的崩盤，你會發現這兩個因素，槓桿和流動性，總是讓股市崩盤變得更糟。

Between 1921 and 1929, the stock market has grown by 500%.

在 1921 年到 1929 年之間，股市成長了 500%。

That was one of the fastest growth of stocks in history.

這是史上股票成長最快的時期之一。

And it wasn't because it was because of invention of Internet, it wasn't because AI was invented.

這不是因為發明瞭網路，也不是因為發明瞭 AI。

This growth happened primarily because there was a lot of leverage in the market.

這次成長主要是因為市場上有大量的槓桿。

Investors could borrow against their stocks.

So brokers lent about 75% of the stock's value.

經紀人借出了大約股票價值的 75%。

If the price of the stock was 100%, you could buy it for just $25 and the rest would be lent by your broker.

如果股票價格是 100%，你只需要花 25 元就能買到，剩下的由你的經紀人借給你。

So you did not need $100 to buy that stock.

所以你不需要 100 元就能買那支股票。

And if you have $100, why buy one stock when you can buy four stocks?

如果你有 100 元，為什麼只買一支股票，而不是買四支呢？

The rest of the stocks will be lent to you either by the broker or other financial institutions.

剩下的股票會由經紀人或其他金融機構借給你。

So when the price, for example, goes from $100 to $200, on that $25, you just made an extra hundred dollars.

所以，如果價格從 100 元漲到 200 元，你那 25 元就賺了一百元。

And so that feeling of amplifying your returns lured a lot of people to use leverage and invest in the stock market.

這種放大回報的感覺吸引了很多人使用槓桿並投資股市。

But what happens if the stock market corrects itself?

但是，如果股市自己修正了，會發生什麼事？

What happens if your unrealized losses reaches the size of Your portfolio.

如果你的未實現虧損達到了你投資組合的大小，會發生什麼事？

Suddenly your broker will tell you, listen.

突然間，你的經紀人會告訴你，聽著。

Either deposit money into your account, or we will have to realize your losses and exit your position.

你要嘛存錢進你的帳戶，不然我們就得實現你的虧損並出售你的部位。

Because the United States was on a gold standard back in the days, you could not easily increase liquidity in the market.

以前美國是金本位，你沒辦法輕易增加市場的流動性。

Where are you going to get more money from?

And a small crack in the stock market led to one of the biggest stock market crashes and led to the Great Depression.

而股市的一點點裂痕，就導致了史上最嚴重的股市崩盤之一，並引發了大蕭條。

And since then, we haven't actually learned anything.

從那之後，我們其實什麼都沒學到。

Every single crash followed the exact same pattern.

每一次崩盤都遵循著完全相同的模式。

These two factors created every single major stock market crash in the history of the stock market.

這兩個因素造就了股市史上每一次重大的股市崩盤。

Back in the year 2000, the total leverage in the market has reached about $550 billion.

回到 2000 年，市場的總槓桿達到了約 5500 億美元。

So margin debt is basically how leveraged the stock market is.

所以保證金債務基本上就是股市的槓桿程度。

And that $550 billion was about 2.6% of the GDP back in the days.

而那 5500 億美元，當時大約佔 GDP 的 2.6%。

So the total size of leverage in the market was about 2.6% of the entire market.

所以市場總槓桿的規模約佔整個市場的 2.6%。

At the same time, liquidity in the market was very tight.

同時，市場的流動性非常緊張。

So the moment there was some crux in the stock market, what happened?

所以當股市出現一點點裂痕時，發生了什麼事？

It led to a domino effect and crushed the entire market.

這引發了骨牌效應，並摧毀了整個市場。

And the stock market was crushed by about like, 95% or 85% or something along those lines.

而股市崩盤了大約 95% 或 85%，或是類似的幅度。

The total amount of leverage was about $650 billion, which is or about 2.5% of the entire GDP.

總槓桿金額約為 6500 億美元，大約佔整個 GDP 的 2.5%。

Even if people had money, they borrowed against that money and invested in the stock market to maximize their returns.

即使人們有錢，他們也會拿這些錢去借錢，然後投資股市來最大化他們的回報。

And as liquidity in the market tightened, even a small crack in the market has led to a biggest drop in the stock market.

隨著市場流動性收緊，市場上的一點點裂痕就導致了股市最大的跌幅。

Now, another interesting case is what happened back in 2021.

還有一個有趣的案例是 2021 年發生的事。

2021 年，或 2020 到 2021 年之間。

The stock market was filled with liquidity.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to bare minimum.

So a lot of cash was going from the Federal Reserve into the stock market or the entire economy.

所以大量的現金從聯準會流入股市或整個經濟體。

There was very huge liquidity in the market.

That money was spent in the stock market, invested in the stock market, and

這些錢花在股市，投資在股市，而且

in the stock market kept growing tremendously.

When you see the stock market growing so fast, what do you do?

當你看到股市漲這麼快時，你會怎麼做？

You borrow money against your capital and invest it in the stock market to amplify your returns and you make a lot of money.

你拿你的資本去借錢，然後投資股市來放大你的回報，這樣你就能賺很多錢。

字幕列表影片播放

這就是大碰撞前 "總是 "發生的情況 (This is What “Always” Happens Before a Massive Crash)

literally

entire

massive

multiple