Name: 雷-達里奧正在為類似 1971 年的大崩盤做準備 (Ray Dalio is Preparing For A Crash Like 1971)
Uploaded: 2025-10-17T18:14:54.000Z
Duration: 12 min 25 s

程度副詞

Ray Dalio just sent a very powerful message.

Ray Dalio 發出了一個非常強烈的訊息。

基礎被動語態

He was asked if the stock market is overvalued and has turned into a bubble.

他被問到股票市場是否估值過高，變成了保麗龍。

So do you think that it actually makes perfect sense, the stock market is hitting record high after record high at the same time that gold is hitting record high after record high?

那麼你認為，股票市場屢創新高，同時黃金也屢創新高，這是不是完全說得通呢？

And then the question, to understand what's happening, we have to go back to 1930s.

然後問題來了，要了解發生什麼事，我們得回到1930年代。

From 1920s up until 1929, the US economy was thriving.

從1920年代到1929年，美國經濟蓬勃發展。

It was one of the fastest economic growth in the history of the United States.

這是美國歷史上經濟增長最快的時期之一。

And it led a lot of people to borrow money and invest in the stock market.

這讓很多人借錢投資股票市場。

It's very difficult to watch how the market is growing while you're not investing.

看著市場在漲，自己卻沒投資，真的會很難受。

And if you don't have enough money to invest, why don't you go and borrow money to invest in the stock market?

而且如果你的錢不夠投資，為什麼不乾脆去借錢投資股票市場呢？

However, that led to one of the biggest bubbles in history and led to the crash of 1929.

不過，這也導致了史上最大的保麗龍之一，並引發了1929年的崩盤。

Unemployment, in fact, rose as high as like 20% or 25%.

失業率，實際上，高達百分之二十或二十五左右。

The United States was on a gold standard.

A single ounce of gold was worth about $20 an ounce.

So the US government couldn't simply print its way out of that crisis, and

所以美國政府不能只是印鈔來解決那場危機，而且

it couldn't increase the supply of money people were afraid to spend.

也無法增加人們不敢花用的貨幣供應量。

So in 1933, FDR passed a law that everybody in the United States had to sell their gold back to the government.

所以在1933年，小羅斯福通過了一項法律，要求美國所有人將黃金賣回給政府。

And it was illegal from then onwards to trade with gold.

從那時起，買賣黃金都是非法的。

Back in the days the gold was or the dollar was directly backed by gold.

以前，美元是直接由黃金擔保的。

Starting from 1933, it was illegal to do that.

從1933年開始，這樣做是非法的。

What is the point of keeping all of that gold?

You are going to sell your gold to the government, and

the government will guarantee that the dollar is backed by gold.

However, a year later, in 1934, the US government massively devalued the dollar, and

然而，一年後的1934年，美國政府大幅貶值了美元，

黃金價格變成了每盎司35美元。

So a year ago, you had to sell all of your gold at $20.67, and

所以一年前，你們得用每盎司20.67美元賣掉所有黃金，

now the price of gold has increased almost by 41%.

It felt like robbery, and that's how a lot of people felt.

感覺就像搶劫，很多人都有這種感覺。

But it massively increased the supply of money in the economy and helped a lot of people to pay back their debts much easier.

但這大幅增加了經濟中的貨幣供應量，也讓很多人更容易還債。

And it was one of the reasons that the US Economy got out of the Great Depression.

這也是美國經濟走出大蕭條的原因之一。

However, the United states up until 1970s was on a gold standard, especially after 1945, when World War I ended, the only currency that was backed by gold, it was the US Dollar.

然而，美國直到1970年代都實施金本位，尤其是在第二次世界大戰結束後的1945年，唯一由黃金擔保的貨幣就是美元。

So the entire world started using the dollars because the dollar was backed by gold and every other currency was backed by the US Dollar.

所以全世界都開始使用美元，因為美元有黃金撐腰，而其他所有貨幣都由美元擔保。

That enabled international trade, but that only lasted until 1971.

這促進了國際貿易，但這只持續到1971年。

After 1945, the United States started massively spending money.

1945年之後，美國開始大量花錢。

And those countries that accumulated so much dollars, they came back to the United States and exchanged their dollars for gold.

那些累積了大量美元的國家，回到美國用美元換黃金。

And the U.S. gold reserves were depleted from 20,000 metric tons to about 8,000.

美國的黃金儲備從兩萬公噸銳減到大約八千公噸。

government realized that if this trend is going to continue, the United States will simply run out of gold.

政府意識到，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，美國的黃金就會用光。

So Richard Nixon in 1971 came out and abandoned the gold standard.

於是，尼克森總統在1971年宣佈，放棄金本位。

The dollars were no longer backed by gold.

And that led to the second massive devaluation of the dollar.

這導致了美元第二次大規模貶值。

The dollar instantly lost most of its value.

In fact, by 1980s, the price of gold increased from $35 an ounce, which was before 1971, up to $850.

事實上，到了1980年代，黃金價格從1971年之前的每盎司35美元，飆升到850美元。

There was so much money in the economy that it led to the inflation of all asset prices.

經濟中有太多資金，導致所有資產價格都膨脹了。

On one side, wages did not grow that much.

一方面，薪資並沒有成長太多。

On the other side, asset prices had to adjust to a new supply of money.

另一方面，資產價格必須適應新的貨幣供應量。

Yes, gold prices rose dramatically, but so did stock prices and house prices.

沒錯，黃金價格飆升，股票和房價也一樣。

It led to one of the largest wealth inequalities in American history.

這導致了美國歷史上最嚴重的財富不均之一。

And that was the second major devaluation.

But we are not over yet, because starting from 2020, the United States is going through third major devaluation of the dollar.

但我們還沒結束，因為從2020年開始，美國正經歷第三次美元大規模貶值。

But this devaluation is very different from all previous devaluations.

但這次貶值與以往所有貶值都大不相同。

This devaluation is happening gradually and behind the scenes because we are no longer back in 1971.

這次貶值是漸進且在幕後進行的，因為我們不再是1971年了。

In 1971, the United States did not have a competitor.

The European Union just barely got out of World War II.

歐盟剛從第二次世界大戰中勉強脫身。

The Eastern Europe was under the communist rule.

東歐當時在共產主義統治之下。

So the United States could do whatever it wanted.

If the United States will pull out something that it pulled out back in 1971, the entire world will abandon the dollar and they will move to different alternative currencies, such as the Chinese yuan or the Japanese yen, or most likely the European Union's euro.

如果美國像1971年那樣搞點什麼，全世界都會拋棄美元，轉向人民幣、日圓，或者最有可能歐盟的歐元等替代貨幣。

And that's why this devaluation is happening behind the scenes.

這就是為什麼這次貶值是悄悄進行的。

But, but the main question is that why is the United States doing that to begin with?

但是，但是主要問題是，美國一開始為什麼要這麼做？

When you get into the point in the cycle where debt is needed to pay debt and compounds, it becomes a problem.

當你進入週期中，需要借債來還債並支付複利時，這就成了問題。

It becomes a problem also for the central banks, debt by itself is not a problem.

這對中央銀行來說也是個問題，債務本身不是問題。

If you are borrowing money to invest to build basic infrastructure and improve your productivity, that is great.

如果你借錢投資來建造基礎設施並提高生產力，那很好。

If you're a homeless man, it's far better for you to get a mortgage and have a roof over your head, because that will increase your productivity and you will be able to make far more money.

如果你是無家可歸的人，能獲得抵押貸款並有地方住，那對你來說會好得多，因為這會提高你的生產力，讓你賺到更多錢。

If you have to travel to your job and you don't have a car, but

如果你必須開車上班，但你沒有車，但

you need a car to get to your job, it is alright to borrow money to get a car so that you can get to your job.

你需要車才能上班，借錢買車來上班是沒問題的。

That will increase your productivity and you will make far more money, assuming that there isn't any kind of public transport.

這樣會提高你的生產力，讓你賺更多錢，前提是沒有大眾運輸工具。

But the moment you reach to a position, when you have to borrow money to pay off your debts, that's when the problem comes.

但當你走到必須借錢來還債的地步時，問題就來了。

Because you're not borrowing money to increase your productivity, but

因為你不是為了提高生產力而借錢，

you're borrowing money to simply to avoid a default.

So in 2020, when the US government borrowed $3.2 trillion, it was mathematically impossible for the US government to ever pay off its debts.

所以在2020年，美國政府借了3.2兆美元，美國政府根本不可能還清債務。

And that's why, or that's when the United States government decided that it will go on a third, third major devaluation of the dollar, where the dollar will lose so much of its value that the previous debts will be much easier to pay.

這也是為什麼，或者說這時候美國政府決定要進行第三次、第三次大規模的美元貶值，讓美元貶值到之前的債務會變得更容易償還。

If this continues at the rate that it was in the past, the US will never pay off its debts.

如果照過去的速度持續下去，美國永遠還不清債務。

But if we gradually keep devaluing the dollar, then paying off older debts will become a lot easier.

但如果我們逐步讓美元貶值，那麼償還舊債就會容易得多。

Now, the CPI data shows that the inflation is about 3%.

現在，CPI數據顯示通貨膨脹率大約是3%。

However, most of you, if not all of you, by looking at your life, you know that inflation is much higher than 3%.

不過，你們大多數人，如果不是全部，看看你們的生活就知道，通貨膨脹率遠遠高於3%。

If we calculate inflation today the way we did it back in 1970s, the real inflation today would be about 7 to 10%.

如果我們用1970年代計算通貨膨脹的方式來計算今天的通貨膨脹，那麼今天的實際通貨膨脹率大約是7%到10%。

Treasury bills pay around 4% in interest today.

So the real value of the dollar is being devalued by 3 to 6% annually.

所以美元的實際價值每年貶值3%到6%。

And if you look at the trajectory, the US government does not plan to stop the deficit anytime soon.

而且如果你看看趨勢，美國政府短期內並沒有打算停止赤字。

With each consecutive year, the US government will borrow more and more money.

美國政府每年都會借更多的錢。

And by 2034, at least by today's standards, the deficit will go back to $3 trillion.

而到了2034年，至少以今天的標準來看，赤字將回到3兆美元。

The worst case scenario is that the deficit will grow up to $5 trillion.

最壞的情況是，赤字將增長到5兆美元。

The easiest way to spot how much the dollar is getting devalued is by looking at the if the gold.

要看美元貶值多少，最簡單的方法就是看黃金。

If gold prices are soaring dramatically, then you know that the dollar is getting devalued.

如果金價飆漲，就知道美元正在貶值。

This graph shows how much central banks hold in gold reserves and treasury bills.

這張圖顯示各國央行持有多少黃金儲備和國庫券。

Treasury bills are pretty much the US dollars because you can instantly convert them into the US dollars.

國庫券基本上就是美元，因為你可以立刻換成美元。

From 1970s up until late 1990s, you can see that most of the reserves were gold because the US dollar was devalued so much that most of the global reserves were in dollars.

從1970年代到1990年代末，你可以看到大部分儲備是黃金，因為美元貶值太多，大部分全球儲備都是美元。

However, that dynamic changed in late 1990s up until early 2000s that the dollar became so valuable that most of the global reserves were in US Dollars and gold went to the second place.

然而，這種情況在1990年代末到2000年代初期發生了改變，美元變得非常有價值，大部分全球儲備都是美元，黃金退居第二。

However, that dynamic is changing to the point where today's central banks are holding as much gold as they're herding treasury bills.

然而，這種情況正在改變，到今天各國央行持有的黃金和國庫券差不多一樣多。

The central banks across the globe are not massively selling off their Treasuries that this dynamic is changing.

全球央行並沒有大規模拋售國庫券，這種情況正在改變。

What is actually happening is that the dollar is getting so devalued and the price of gold is soaring so much that if you take it in value terms, then the exact same amount of gold simply worth a lot more.

實際上發生的是，美元正在大幅貶值，金價正在飆升，如果以價值來看，同樣數量的黃金價值就高了很多。

But since gold by itself did not change, it is the dollar that lost most of its value that this dynamic is changing.

但由於黃金本身沒有改變，是美元失去了大部分價值，這種情況正在改變。

字幕列表影片播放

雷-達里奧正在為類似 1971 年的大崩盤做準備 (Ray Dalio is Preparing For A Crash Like 1971)

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