Name: 市場尚未崩潰的真正原因......迄今為止 (The Real Reason Why The Market Hasn’t Crashed…YET)
Uploaded: 2025-10-15T17:59:25.000Z
Duration: 14 min 30 s

The stock market is rising so fast that a lot of people are calling it the everything bubble.

股市漲得好快，很多人都說這是萬物保麗龍。

As if the entire stock market is turning into one giant bubble.

好像整個股市都變成了一個巨大的保麗龍。

Now imagine in 2008, it wasn't the entire stock market that turned into a bubble, but

現在想像一下，在2008年，不是整個股市變成保麗龍，而是

But that crash alone took down not just the US economy, but the entire global economy.

但那次的崩盤就讓美國經濟，還有整個全球經濟都垮了。

It led many countries into a crisis that they are suffering even until today.

許多國家是以陷入了至今仍在承受的危機。

What happens when the everything bubble crashes?

那萬物保麗龍崩盤時會發生什麼事呢？

But on the other side, the stock market isn't showing any sign of a crackdown.

但另一方面，股市並沒有任何打擊的跡象。

Yes, there are some small drops in the stock market, but

是的，股市有些小幅下跌，但是

overall, if you zoom out and look at the big picture, all you see is that the stock market is rising as if it's never going to collapse.

總體來說，如果你縮小視角，看看大局，你只會看到股市一直在漲，好像永遠不會崩盤一樣。

Over the last five years alone, the stock market has increased by almost 100%.

光是過去五年，股市就漲了將近100%。

This is one of the fastest increases in the S&P 500.

這是S&P 500史上最快的漲幅之一。

Usually this is not normal for the S&P 500.

這對S&P 500來說通常是不尋常的。

And we are talking about the collection of companies within these companies.

而且我們談論的是這些公司內部的集合。

If you take individual stocks, then we have seen growth like we have never seen in the past.

如果你看個股，那我們就看到了前所未有的成長。

So the real question that a lot of people are wondering, why hasn't the market crashed yet?

所以很多人都在想，真正的問題是，為什麼市場還沒崩盤？

There is literally every single sign that the stock market is overvalued.

股市估值過高的跡象比比皆是。

If you understand the basic of finance, if you understand the basics of the market, it's not difficult for you to come to a conclusion that the market is insanely overvalued.

如果你懂金融的基本，懂市場的基本，你就不難得出市場估值過高的結論。

It's not just people randomly throwing the word, the everything bubble.

這不是隨便說說的「萬物保麗龍」。

Just look at the P E ratios of companies.

Apple, the largest company, has a P e ratio of 37 that is insanely high.

像 Apple 這樣最大的公司，本益比高達 37，實在是太誇張了。

Usually investors pay for every dollar that the companies are earning.

通常投資者會為公司賺取的每一塊錢付出代價。

Price to earnings ratio of anything between to 20.

If it's a technology company, we can be a bit more optimistic because tech companies can come up with new technologies and create extra sources of profits.

如果是科技公司，我們可以稍微樂觀一點，因為科技公司能開發新技術，創造額外的利潤來源。

But 37 PE ratio for a company that is worth $33.7 trillion is insane by any metric that you take.

但一家市值 33.7 兆美元的公司，本益比卻是 37，這無論用什麼標準來看都太離譜了。

Nvidia, another company has a PE ratio of 53.

Nvidia，另一家公司的本益比是 53。

This is the most valuable company in the world.

And instead of people selling off their shares because the company has crossed the 4 trillion dollar valuation, they're like, we don't care.

大家沒有因為公司市值突破 4 兆美元就賣股票，反而說我們不在乎。

For every dollar that you make Nvidia, we are ready to pay A single dollar.

Nvidia 賺取的每一塊錢，我們都願意支付一塊錢。

That doesn't seem like a wise investment to make.

這聽起來不是一筆明智的投資。

Amazon has a P E ratio of 33 compared to Nvidia.

跟 Nvidia 相比，Amazon 的本益比是 33。

Of course it is way lower, but still a 33 p e ratio is insanely high.

當然是低很多，但 33 的本益比還是高得嚇人。

And I haven't even talked to you about Tesla, where the P E ratio stands at 252.

我還沒跟你們說 Tesla，它的本益比高達 252。

Tesla is no longer the little startup where you can pay a P e ratio of 252.

Tesla 早已不是那種可以支付 252 本益比的小型新創公司。

Tesla is one of the largest tech companies in the world and it's on the way to become a 10 trillion dollar company.

Tesla 是全球最大的科技公司之一，而且有望成為一家 10 兆美元的公司。

And I can't imagine when Tesla is going to make enough earnings to justify such valuation.

我真不敢想像 Tesla 要賺多少錢才能證明這個估值是合理的。

The real question that everybody should be asking, or everybody is already asking is that who is buying those stocks where that demand is coming?

大家真正該問的，或者說大家都在問的問題是，是誰在買這些股票，需求是從哪裡來的？

The only reason that the market is growing is because somebody out there is buying those stocks that is creating that demand that is leading to such growth in stock prices.

市場之所以會成長，唯一的理由就是有人在買這些股票，創造了需求，進而推升了股價。

So if we answer this question suddenly we can figure out why the market hasn't crashed yet.

所以，如果我們回答了這個問題，就能找出市場為什麼還沒崩盤。

In 2025, companies have spent $1 trillion in stock buybacks.

到了 2025 年，公司已經花了 1 兆美元進行股票回購。

What is a stock buyback is when a company takes its profits and instead of doing something with it like buying other companies, giving it in form of dividends to investors, or doing anything with that money, it is taking that cash and buying back its shares.

什麼是股票回購呢？就是公司把賺來的利潤，不是拿去買其他公司，也不是發放股息給投資者，而是把這些錢拿來買回自己的股票。

We have a set number of shares in the market, let's say of Apple, and

我們市場上有一定數量的股份，假設是 Apple 的，

then we have people who are buying those stocks.

然後有很多人在買進這些股票。

If the company artificially takes billions of dollars and buys back its shares, it is creating artificial demand for which is leading stock prices to rise.

如果公司人為地花費數十億美元買回自己的股票，就是在創造人為需求，這會導致股價上漲。

And that is why stock prices are rising so fast.

這也是為什麼股價漲這麼快的原因。

And in 2025 alone this year, the year is not over yet.

而光是在 2025 年，今年還沒結束。

This is uncomprehensive number spending so much money on buying back your stocks.

這樣大手筆地花錢買回自家股票，這個數字真的很驚人。

Basically when a company reports a revenue, it has to deduct expenses and then it makes a profit.

基本上，當一家公司報告營收時，必須扣除開銷，然後才能產生利潤。

That profit must be taxed at the corporate tax level.

這份利潤必須在公司層級繳稅。

And after paying taxes, the company is left with some money.

繳完稅後，公司手上就剩下一些錢了。

And that money, instead of spending it on building more factories, on paying off more workers, the company is spending to buy back its shares.

而這筆錢，公司沒有拿去蓋更多工廠，也沒有拿去支付更多員工薪水，而是拿來買回自家股票。

那麼，誰是股票買回的大戶呢？

At least in the last 10 years, this year they have spent $100 billion buying back their stocks.

至少在過去 10 年，今年他們就花了 1000 億美元買回自家股票。

Now you know who is buying so many Apple shares at number two, it's Alphabet.

現在你知道誰在買這麼多 Apple 股票了，第二名是 Alphabet。

That spent $70 billion buying back their stocks.

他們花了 700 億美元買回自家股票。

Nvidia spent $60 billion buying back their stocks, and so on and so forth.

Nvidia 花了 600 億美元買回自家股票，以此類推。

You can see that companies are literally throwing tens of billions of dollars.

你可以看到，公司真的在灑數百億美元。

So in total, they amounted to a trillion dollars of stock buybacks just this year alone.

所以總計，光是今年，他們就進行了 1 兆美元的股票買回。

And that number seems to rise every single year, creating that artificial demand.

而且這個數字似乎年年都在增加，創造了那種人為的需求。

In 2024, these companies have spent $942 billion buying back their stocks.

在 2024 年，這些公司已經花了 9420 億美元買回自家股票。

So we have a bunch of companies who are making unbelievable amounts of money, the kind of money that nobody can imagine.

所以我們看到很多公司賺進了難以置信的錢，是那種大家無法想像的錢。

And instead of giving that money to investors, they.

與其把這些錢發給投資者，他們。

They take that money, buy back their stocks, then they make a lot more money.

他們會拿這些錢去買回自家股票，然後他們就能賺到更多錢。

They make hundreds of billions of dollars, take those money, buy back their stocks.

他們賺了數千億美元，然後拿這些錢去買回自家股票。

In 2023, that number was slightly lower at $800 billion.

2023 年，這個數字稍微低一點，是 8000 億美元。

But in 2022, they literally hit the record.

但在 2022 年，他們真的創下了紀錄。

They spent $1.1 trillion buying back their stocks.

他們花了 1.1 兆美元買回自家股票。

When the Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates in the beginning of 2022, the entire stock market almost collapsed.

2022 年初，當聯準會升息時，整個股市幾乎崩盤。

Literally, it fell down by about 20% or maybe even 25%.

實際上，它下跌了大概 20% 甚至 25%。

And logically, if you have made the math, the crash should have been much bigger because it has risen for no good reason.

合理地說，如果你算過，這次崩盤應該要更嚴重，因為它之前是毫無理由地上漲的。

Back in 2020 and 2021, when the federal Reserve pulled the trigger and moved out those cheap money out of the economy, the.

回到 2020 和 2021 年，當聯準會扣下扳機，將那些廉價資金從經濟中撤出時。

But because those companies took all of that cash, and

但因為那些公司拿走了所有的現金，而且

most of that cash, by the way, was borrowed at a very low interest rate, they simply started buying back their stocks, reducing the number of shares in the market, while if the demand stays the same, the market does not crashes.

順帶一提，大部分現金都是以非常低的利率借來的，他們只是開始買回自家股票，減少了市場上的股份數量，而如果需求不變，市場就不會崩盤。

Companies weren't aggressively buying back their stocks all the time.

公司並非一直積極地買回自家股票。

If you go back 20 years ago, the total amount of stock buybacks was at $168 billion.

如果你回溯 20 年前，股票買回的總金額是 1680 億美元。

If you compare it to today's $1.1 trillion, or almost a trillion dollars in 2024, you can realize that that number has grown by a substantial percentage point.

如果你跟今天的 1.1 兆美元，或是 2024 年將近一兆美元相比，你會發現這個數字已經大幅成長了。

So with each consecutive year, companies realized a loophole.

所以年復一年，公司們發現了一個漏洞。

We can grow our stock prices by buying back our stocks.

我們可以透過買回自家股票來推升股價。

Over the last five years, the price of Apple stock has risen by 100%.

過去五年來，Apple 股票的價格上漲了 100%。

And that is all because the company has spent so much money on buybacks.

而這一切都是因為公司在股票買回上花了這麼多錢。

So this is how we basically value companies.

所以這就是我們如何評估公司價值。

You have a company based on the amount of profits that the company is going to make.

公司價值是基於它預計能賺取的利潤。

That is the true valuation of the business.

So at the end of the day, because it's A publicly traded company, we can't just look at the overall profits that the company has made because it depends on the number of shareholders.

所以說到底，因為它是上市公司，我們不能只看公司賺了多少總利潤，這還得看股東人數。

So we take the final earnings, the final profits, and

所以我們取最終的獲利，最終的利潤，然後

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市場尚未崩潰的真正原因......迄今為止 (The Real Reason Why The Market Hasn’t Crashed…YET)

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