Name: 即將發生的事情比 1929 年的大蕭條更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades)
Uploaded: 2025-09-22T18:26:24.000Z
Duration: 19 min 23 s

The US economy is on the brink of catastrophe.

The size of the US economy in 2020 was about 20 trillion dollars.

2020 年美國經濟規模約為 20 萬億美元。

Today it has risen to over 30 trillion dollars.

如今，這一數字已超過 30 萬億美元。

So the average American should have gotten at least 30% more wealthier.

是以，美國人的平均財富至少應該增加 30%。

But if you ask anybody in the streets of New York or LA or any other American city, they will tell you that prices are soaring, wages are falling down and life gets a lot harder.

但是，如果你在紐約、洛杉磯或其他美國城市的街頭隨便問一個人，他們都會告訴你，物價飛漲，工資下降，生活變得更加艱難。

So how is it possible that the US economy is growing faster than ever and yet the life for the average American got a lot harder?

那麼，為什麼美國經濟增長速度比以往任何時候都快，而普通美國人的生活卻變得更加艱難呢？

The truth is that the US government has quietly been hiding a stagflation and that is the worst thing that could happen to any economy, even worse than the great depression of 1929.

事實上，美國政府一直在悄悄地掩蓋滯脹的事實，而滯脹是任何經濟體都可能發生的最糟糕的事情，甚至比 1929 年的大蕭條還要糟糕。

If you think that I am exaggerating, let me show you the facts.

如果你認為我誇大其詞，那就讓我向你展示事實。

Meanwhile, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

同時，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們進入正題。

The great depression of 1929 should not have happened in the first place.

1929 年的大蕭條本來就不應該發生。

In fact, prior to the 1929 great depression, the US economy had one of the best periods in its entire history.

事實上，在 1929 年大蕭條之前，美國經濟是其整個歷史上最好的時期之一。

When world war 1 happened in 1914, the allies were fighting the central powers and while these two countries or these two sides, I would say, were fighting each other, the United States was making a lot of money by selling stuff to the central powers and the two allies.

1914 年第一次世界大戰爆發時，同盟國正在與中央強國交戰，在這兩個國家或我要說的這兩方互相交戰的同時，美國通過向中央強國和兩個同盟國出售商品賺了很多錢。

The United States was getting richer while those countries and both of these sides were getting significantly poorer.

美國越來越富，而這些國家和雙方都明顯越來越窮。

There wasn't a single sign of economic crisis.

So how is it possible, after such a great period of economic prosperity, the United States faces probably the worst crisis in its entire history.

那麼，為什麼在經歷瞭如此輝煌的經濟繁榮時期之後，美國卻面臨著可能是其整個歷史上最嚴重的危機呢？

When the US economy began growing so fast, the average American became the wealthiest citizen of any other country.

當美國經濟開始快速增長時，普通美國人成為其他國家最富有的公民。

The consumer market in the United States became the largest consumer market in the world.

美國的消費市場成為全球最大的消費市場。

And the average American started investing.

The stock market was growing faster than ever.

股市的增長速度比以往任何時候都快。

And a lot of people got delusional, a lot of people wanted to make a lot of quick money out of the stock market when they didn't understand how the market works.

很多人都有妄想症，很多人都想在不瞭解市場運作方式的情況下，從股市中賺大錢。

So people started borrowing money, investing in the stock market, and asset prices were inflated to levels that we haven't seen prior to that.

於是，人們開始借錢，投資股市，資產價格被抬高到我們在此之前從未見過的水準。

So the market turned into a bubble and it collapsed in 1929 because the market wasn't actually backed by real earnings.

是以，市場變成了保麗龍，並在 1929 年崩潰，因為市場實際上並沒有實際收益作為支撐。

And it's very normal for the stock market to crash because when prices are inflated beyond what they are actually worth, there will be a correction and prices are going to fall down, so the government should have left the economy to do its thing.

股市崩盤是很正常的事情，因為當價格膨脹到超出實際價值時，就會出現修正，價格就會下跌，所以政府應該讓經濟自生自滅。

However, it quickly turned into a domino effect.

然而，這很快就變成了多米諾骨牌效應。

Since most of those investments were on debts and the entire economy was over-relying on debts, bank failures became a normal.

由於這些投資大多是債務投資，而整個經濟又過度依賴債務，銀行倒閉就成了一種常態。

So if you borrowed money to invest in the stock market, now you cannot pay off your debt to the bank, what do you think is happening to the bank?

是以，如果你借錢投資股市，現在你無法償還欠銀行的債務，你認為銀行會怎麼樣？

The bank has failed and declared bankruptcy.

People got into panic and they went to other banks to take their money out of those banks.

人們陷入恐慌，紛紛到其他銀行取錢。

And very quickly, most of the banks in the country began declaring bankruptcy, which worsened the entire situation.

很快，全國大部分銀行開始宣佈破產，整個局勢更加惡化。

Even though the United States was the wealthiest country at that time, even today, the United States is the wealthiest country in the world.

儘管當時美國是最富裕的國家，但即使在今天，美國也是世界上最富裕的國家。

Most of the wealth was concentrated in the top 1 percent, while the vast majority of people either lost their investments, and there was a huge unemployment in the entire country.

大部分財富集中在最富有的 1%，而絕大多數人要麼失去了投資，要麼整個國家出現了巨大的失業。

The true size of the economy is the true output of the economy and the true productivity, what exactly the economy can produce, cars, steels, technology, or whatever.

經濟的真正規模就是經濟的真正產出和真正的生產力，也就是經濟到底能生產什麼，汽車、鋼鐵、技術還是其他什麼。

Multiply that by the prices within the entire economy, and you have your GDP or the size of the economy.

再乘以整個經濟體內的價格，就是國內生產總值或經濟規模。

This is a simplified version of how we can actually imagine the entire economy.

這只是我們對整個經濟實際想象的簡化版本。

When you have a bubble, when prices are rising faster than the output and the productivity, what do you think is going to happen?

當保麗龍出現時，當價格上漲速度超過產出和生產率時，你認為會發生什麼？

Sooner or later, there should happen a correction, so prices fall down.

遲早會出現修正，是以價格會下跌。

And that's exactly what happened in 1929 when the stock market collapsed, so the government should have left the economy to do its thing.

這正是 1929 年股市崩盤時發生的情況，是以政府本應讓經濟自生自滅。

The government should have left the free market to do its thing.

政府本應讓自由市場發揮其作用。

The market is overvalued, now there is a correction and prices are falling down, it's okay, let's just let the economy over time increase the productivity to match the prices.

市場估值過高，現在出現調整，價格下跌，沒關係，隨著時間的推移，讓經濟提高生產率，使之與價格相匹配。

Even if the prices are falling down, now they will continue rising because we are increasing the productivity.

即使價格下降，現在也會繼續上漲，因為我們的生產率正在提高。

But the government decided that we have to protect American businesses, we have to protect American companies from outside factors.

但政府決定，我們必須保護美國企業，我們必須保護美國公司不受外部因素的影響。

Those European companies, those European nations are competing with the US companies.

這些歐洲公司、歐洲國家正在與美國公司競爭。

If we stop those companies from coming into the United States and out-competing our companies, we might solve the great depression.

如果我們阻止這些公司進入美國並與我們的公司競爭，我們就可能解決大蕭條問題。

So the government passes the tariff act of 1930.

於是，政府通過了《1930 年關稅法》。

What do you think that have done in the economy?

Those countries on the other side of the ocean have also increased these tariffs in retaliation to the United States.

大洋彼岸的這些國家也增加了這些關稅，以報復美國。

What made the US economy the wealthiest economy in the world isn't because the United States was isolated from the rest of the world, but rather it was because of globalization, but rather because the United States was selling to the central powers, to allies, and to the rest of the world which made the United States such a wealthy economy.

美國經濟之所以成為世界上最富裕的經濟體，並不是因為美國與世界其他國家隔絕，而是因為全球化，而是因為美國向中央大國、盟國和世界其他國家銷售，這才使美國成為如此富裕的經濟體。

Now you have imposed the tariffs and you are not allowing these countries to trade with you anymore, what do you think have happened to the size of the US economy?

現在你們徵收關稅，不再允許這些國家與你們進行貿易，你們認為美國的經濟規模會發生什麼變化？

And that's why tariffs actually worsened the great depression.

這就是為什麼關稅實際上加劇了大蕭條。

In fact, tariffs made a normal economic crisis into a great depression that lasted for the next 10 years.

事實上，關稅使一場正常的經濟危機演變成了持續 10 年的大蕭條。

But gladly, the next president of the United States was Franklin Roosevelt, and he understood that the first thing that we have to do is get rid of all of those tariffs so that the US economy will start trading with the rest of the world and over time, the US economy is going to grow.

但值得高興的是，下一任美國總統是富蘭克林-羅斯福，他明白我們首先要做的是取消所有這些關稅，這樣美國經濟就會開始與世界其他國家進行貿易，隨著時間的推移，美國經濟就會增長。

The government decided that we need a new actor in the economy.

政府決定，我們需要一個新的經濟參與者。

於是，羅斯福提出了一項新協議。

The point of the deal was that the government is going to intervene massively into the economy by introducing a lot of government programs such as social security.

該協議的要點在於，政府將通過引入大量政府項目（如社會保障）對經濟進行大規模干預。

That huge government spending is going to boost the economy and will help it to grow.

鉅額的政府支出將推動經濟發展，幫助經濟增長。

Because besides people within the entire economy, besides the companies, besides the banks, now you have the government that has trillions of dollars, at that time billions of dollars that it can throw into the economy and create that demand and lift the economy out of the great depression.

因為除了整個經濟中的人，除了公司，除了銀行，現在你還有政府，它擁有數萬億美元，當時是數十億美元，可以投入經濟，創造需求，使經濟走出大蕭條。

The economy began to recover and then world war 2 happened that gave the United States another opportunity to sell massively to the rest of the world and become the dominant power in the world.

經濟開始復甦，隨後發生的第二次世界大戰給了美國又一次機會，向世界其他國家大量出售商品，成為世界霸主。

And now compare that to what's happening today.

現在將其與今天發生的事情進行比較。

We have a hidden crisis that is way worse than the great depression.

我們面臨著比大蕭條還要嚴重的隱性危機。

You see, financial crises are a fundamental part of the economy.

要知道，金融危機是經濟的基本組成部分。

The economy starts to grow, then it reaches a certain peak and there is a crash.

經濟開始增長，然後達到某個頂峰，出現崩潰。

Suddenly, prices adjust and productivity starts to grow again or grow much more than it was prior to that and then it reaches a certain peak.

突然，價格調整，生產率開始恢復增長，或者比之前增長得更多，然後達到某個峰值。

The only reason that the economy reaches a certain peak and then crashes is when prices start rising faster than the productivity.

經濟達到某個頂峰然後崩潰的唯一原因是，價格的上漲速度開始超過生產率。

If prices are rising and the entire economy and the output of the economy is also growing, then the true size of the economy is also growing which is great for the economy.

如果物價上漲，整個經濟和經濟產出也在增長，那麼經濟的真實規模也在增長，這對經濟來說是好事。

Even if inflation is 5 percent, but the output in the economy and the productivity is growing by 10 percent, then the real growth of the economy is actually 5 percent.

即使通貨膨脹率為 5%，但經濟產出和生產率增長了 10%，那麼經濟的實際增長實際上就是 5%。

So even though that inflation on one side is high, the true size of the economy is growing and the well-being of people is also growing.

是以，儘管一方面通貨膨脹率很高，但真正的經濟規模卻在增長，人民的福祉也在增長。

The problem comes in when prices are growing way faster than the output of the economy.

當價格增長速度遠遠超過經濟產出時，問題就來了。

So let's take this equation and compare it to what's happening in the world today or with the US economy.

是以，讓我們把這個等式與當今世界或美國經濟所發生的情況進行比較。

The US GDP is growing between 2 to 3 percent or has been over the last couple of years.

美國的 GDP 增長率在 2% 到 3% 之間，過去幾年也是如此。

Now it has slowed down to less than 2 percent, but over the last couple of years, the growth has been around 2 to 3 percent adjusted to inflation.

現在，增長速度已放緩至不到 2%，但在過去幾年中，根據通脹率調整後的增長率一直在 2% 至 3% 左右。

Inflation at the same time has been at around 3 percent.

與此同時，通貨膨脹率一直保持在 3% 左右。

Based on this data, the US economy is doing great.

從這些數據來看，美國經濟發展勢頭良好。

So the question is, why people are complaining?

那麼問題來了，人們為什麼要抱怨呢？

為什麼人們覺得自己越來越窮？

Why do people complain that prices are rising while wages are falling down and life got harsher?

為什麼人們抱怨物價上漲，而工資卻在下降，生活變得更加艱苦？

The problem is that this data that the government is presenting to us is absolutely false.

問題是，政府向我們提供的這些數據絕對是虛假的。

The real question is that, maybe the GDP growth they are presenting to us is correct, but are inflation numbers that the government is providing to us with the CPI report is correct?

真正的問題是，也許他們向我們展示的 GDP 增長是正確的，但政府通過 CPI 報告向我們提供的通貨膨脹數字是否正確？

Because if GDP grows, let's say by 4 percent, and CPI, the real CPI is also 4 percent, then the economy hasn't grown at all.

因為如果 GDP 增長了 4%，而 CPI（實際 CPI）也是 4%，那麼經濟根本沒有增長。

But if we find out that the real CPI is actually 10 percent, then prices are growing way faster than the productivity and that's what we call stagflation.

但如果我們發現實際消費物價指數實際上是 10%，那麼物價的增長速度就會遠遠超過生產率的增長速度，這就是我們所說的滯脹。

那麼，通貨膨脹究竟是如何衡量的呢？

Now we have different metrics to measure inflation, but over the last 50 years, the government has been tricking the numbers in such a way so that they bring the inflation number down and down.

現在，我們有不同的衡量標準來衡量通貨膨脹，但在過去的 50 年裡，政府一直在欺騙數字，使通貨膨脹數字不斷下降。

Back in the 1970s, if you pull out the CPI, they used to actually include home prices or mortgage rates.

早在 20 世紀 70 年代，如果把消費物價指數調出來，就會發現它實際上包括了房價或抵押貸款利率。

So if house prices, for example, have increased by 10 percent, then it will go to the CPI report as 10 percent.

例如，如果房價上漲了 10%，那麼在 CPI 報告中將顯示為 10%。

Some people might say, well, the vast majority of people in America buy their houses with a mortgage, so it makes sense to include mortgage rates instead of house prices.

有些人可能會說，美國絕大多數人都是通過抵押貸款買房的，所以把抵押貸款利率而不是房價計算在內是有道理的。

If mortgage rates have increased, you would make that part of the CPI.

如果抵押貸款利率上升了，您可以將其納入 CPI。

But then they realized that that actually increases inflation too high.

但後來他們意識到，這樣做實際上會使通貨膨脹率過高。

So let's remove house prices, let's remove mortgage rates, and come up with a different metric that will kind of represent the cost of shelter, but it doesn't represent exactly house prices.

是以，讓我們剔除房價，剔除抵押貸款利率，並提出一個不同的衡量標準，它將某種程度上代表住房成本，但並不完全代表房價。

And suddenly inflation numbers have dropped dramatically.