Name: 德國經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (Germany’s Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-09-21T18:52:11.000Z
Duration: 15 min 30 s

to 不定詞

The German economy is on the brink of catastrophe, it's about to do something that will either save the economy or will completely destroy it.

德國經濟正處於災難的邊緣，它即將採取的行動要麼會拯救經濟，要麼會徹底摧毀經濟。

形容詞最高級

This is the biggest gamble the German economy is taking since 1945.

這是德國經濟自 1945 年以來最大的一次賭博。

情態助動詞 A2

The German crisis is so big that most of you cannot possibly fathom it.

德國的危機如此之大，以至於你們中的大多數人都無法想象。

It might seem like an exaggeration, but if you give it a closer look, it is way worse than most people imagine and it's almost impossible to save the economy.

這似乎有些誇張，但如果你仔細觀察一下，就會發現情況比大多數人想象的要糟糕得多，幾乎不可能挽救經濟。

Let me give you the facts and you can make up your mind by the end of the video.

讓我告訴你事實，你可以在視頻結束時做出決定。

So, if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

The German economy is going through a stagflation and this stagflation doesn't seem like it will stop anytime soon.

德國經濟正在經歷滯脹，而且這種滯脹似乎不會很快停止。

It has been going through consistent recessions.

國內生產總值連續三次負增長。

It happened in 2023, in 2024 and there is a likelihood that it will happen in 2025.

它發生在 2023 年、2024 年，而且有可能發生在 2025 年。

However, on the other side, prices are growing all across the globe, especially in the European Union.

但另一方面，全球各地的價格都在增長，尤其是歐盟。

So, if your economy is contracting while prices are growing, that is a stagflation and that is one of the worst things that could possibly happen to any economy.

是以，如果你的經濟在收縮，而物價卻在增長，這就是滯脹，也是任何經濟可能發生的最糟糕的事情之一。

And the projections for the economy aren't any good.

The most optimistic projection for 2025 is 0% GDP growth.

對 2025 年最樂觀的預測是國內生產總值增長 0%。

Imagine your GDP grown by 0%, that's what we consider great because it is better than contracting the economy.

試想一下，你的 GDP 增長了 0%，這就是我們認為的偉大之處，因為這比收縮經濟要好。

The forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are about 1%.

2026 年和 2027 年的預測值約為 1%。

But these are forecasts, so many things could happen in 2026 that could again wipe out the entire German economy.

但這些都是預測，2026 年可能會發生很多事情，再次摧毀整個德國經濟。

To realize how big the crisis is, you simply have to ask yourself, what exactly happened to covid money?

要想知道危機有多大，你只需捫心自問：科維德的錢到底怎麼了？

Germany, like many other nations, also printed so much money.

德國和許多其他國家一樣，也印了很多鈔票。

In the US, it led to a huge GDP growth, and in many other nations.

在美國，它帶來了巨大的國內生產總值增長，在許多其他國家也是如此。

But in Germany, we don't see that effect.

但在德國，我們看不到這種效果。

The German economy is still in a state of stagflation.

When you compare the German economy to the US economy, that's when you understand the  Because over the last 10 years, the German economy has grown by 16%.

當你將德國經濟與美國經濟進行比較時，你就會明白，因為在過去 10 年中，德國經濟增長了 16%。

Now that seems like a reasonable growth, but that is a catastrophe when you compare it to the US that has doubled over the exact same period its economy.

現在看來，這似乎是一個合理的增長，但如果與同期經濟翻番的美國相比，這簡直就是一場災難。

And that's why if you just put it side by side to other major economies, you see that German economy has been stagnating while the rest of the world is growing.

這就是為什麼如果把德國經濟與其他主要經濟體相提並論，你會發現德國經濟一直停滯不前，而世界其他國家的經濟卻在增長。

And Germany is not just another nation, it is a manufacturing powerhouse, it has always been one of the major economies in the world.

德國不是一個普通的國家，它是製造業強國，一直是世界主要經濟體之一。

In fact, the manufacturing output over the last couple of years has been consistently declining, especially since 2019.

事實上，在過去幾年中，製造業產出持續下降，尤其是自 2019 年以來。

There was a plunge in 2020, however, it recovered, and maybe after that, it should have stayed at the same level.

2020 年曾出現過一次暴跌，但之後又恢復了，也許之後應該保持在同一水準。

However, since then, every single year, it's declining and declining and declining.

然而，從那時起，每年都在下降，下降，再下降。

Factories are closing down, factories are producing less, factories are firing people.

工廠在倒閉，工廠在減產，工廠在解僱員工。

And it's also very clear on the number of bankruptcies that has been consistently rising since 2021.

自 2021 年以來，破產數量持續上升，這一點也非常明顯。

If you are not producing anything, you are not making any money, you cannot pay your people, you cannot close your payroll, you are going to just file for bankruptcy, which is exactly what has been happening with the German economy.

如果你不生產任何東西，你賺不到錢，你無法支付你的員工，你無法結清你的工資，你就會申請破產，這正是德國經濟的現狀。

And Germany is the main driver of the European Union, so it is very dangerous for the entire European Union, because if Germany is going to go down, remember, there is not going to be any kind of European Union.

而德國是歐盟的主要驅動力，是以這對整個歐盟來說都是非常危險的，因為如果德國倒下了，記住，歐盟將不復存在。

And if anybody believes that the European Union can function on the shoulders of France, for example, then these people are delusional.

如果有人認為歐盟可以在法國等國的肩膀上運轉，那麼這些人就是痴心妄想。

The European Union will completely dissolve if the German economy is going to collapse.

如果德國經濟崩潰，歐盟將徹底解體。

The first and the fundamental most important reason that Germany is going through an energy catastrophe.

德國正在經歷能源災難的第一個也是最根本的重要原因。

I cannot possibly call it in any different way.

我不可能以任何不同的方式來稱呼它。

We can divide German energy pre-2022 and after 2022.

我們可以將德國能源分為 2022 年前和 2022 年後兩種。

Since 1970s, Germany and Russia has been building infrastructure to import cheap Russian gas and energy from the heart of Russia to the heart of Germany.

自 20 世紀 70 年代以來，德國和俄羅斯一直在建設基礎設施，以便從俄羅斯的心臟地帶向德國的心臟地帶進口廉價的俄羅斯天然氣和能源。

And that's what allowed German factories to turn a profit.

這也是德國工廠能夠盈利的原因。

That's what allowed German factories to operate efficiently.

這就是德國工廠能夠高效運轉的原因。

But since 2022, when the conflict in Europe started, Germany started moving away.

但自 2022 年歐洲衝突爆發後，德國開始撤離。

It was forced to move away from Russian energy and started buying expensive energy from Norway, Netherlands, and most importantly, from the United States.

它被迫放棄俄羅斯能源，開始從挪威、荷蘭以及最重要的美國購買昂貴的能源。

In fact, Donald Trump is insisting that European Union should buy 250 billion dollars worth of energy from the United States over the next three years, and the bulk of that purchases most likely will come from Germany.

事實上，唐納德-特朗普堅持要求歐盟在未來三年內從美國購買價值 2,500 億美元的能源，其中大部分很可能來自德國。

That is something that Germany is completely not satisfied with.

Just to give you a perspective how expensive energy is in the European Union, especially in Germany, natural gas prices right now and have been over the last couple of years, three times than the United States.

在歐盟，尤其是在德國，天然氣價格是美國的三倍。

Three times, not once, not double the price, but three times.

三倍，不是一次，不是價格的兩倍，而是三倍。

And now you can answer the question why it became so unprofitable to manufacture things in Germany.

現在你可以回答為什麼在德國生產無利可圖的問題了。

But if you compare it for example with oil prices, the situation isn't any better.

但如果與石油價格相比，情況也不會好到哪裡去。

For example, the German gasoline prices, like gas prices, is about 2 dollars per liter, while in the United States is about 95 cents.

例如，德國的汽油價格，如煤氣價格，約為每升 2 美元，而美國約為 95 美分。

Now a single gallon is 3.8 liters, which means that the price of a single gallon in Germany is 7.6 dollars.

現在一加侖是 3.8 升，這意味著在德國一加侖的價格是 7.6 美元。

Imagine you going and filling your car with gas and paying 7.6 dollars per gallon.

想象一下，你去給汽車加油，每加侖需要支付 7.6 美元。

I think most of you will not even drive your cars.

我想你們中的大多數人甚至都不會開車。

Secondly, you just gonna go and just sell your car and buy a Tesla or any other electric car because 7.6 dollars per gallon?

其次，就因為每加侖 7.6 美元，你就打算賣掉你的車，買一輛特斯拉或其他電動汽車？

I mean, you have to be a really rich person to afford that.

我的意思是，你得是個非常有錢的人才買得起。

Now remember in 2022 and 2023 when everybody was complaining about how expensive gas prices are?

還記得 2022 年和 2023 年，每個人都在抱怨油價有多貴嗎？

That's when gas prices were about 4 dollars, in 2023 they were already less than 3 dollars, and now they are about 2 dollars, while in Germany is about 7.6 dollars.

當時的油價約為 4 美元，2023 年已不足 3 美元，現在約為 2 美元，而德國的油價約為 7.6 美元。

Yes, for the average people in Germany, it might not be a big deal, because Germany had a very, very efficient public transport, you can take the train, you can take the bus, so prices are not that expensive, however, if you are a business, you are running a factory, you have your trucks, you have your business, you have cars, you have an entire infrastructure, and that infrastructure runs either on natural gas or oil, and if the prices of those things are rising dramatically, your profit margins are shrinking.

是的，對於德國的普通人來說，這可能不是什麼大問題，因為德國的公共交通非常非常高效，你可以乘坐火車，也可以乘坐公共汽車，所以價格並不昂貴，但是，如果你是一家企業，你正在經營一家工廠，你有你的卡車，你有你的企業，你有汽車，你有整個基礎設施，而這些基礎設施不是靠天然氣就是靠石油，如果這些東西的價格大幅上漲，你的利潤空間就會縮小。

And remember, when you are manufacturing things, you have instant fixed costs, and the cost of goods when you manufacture things is much more expensive than when you are selling for example a software where you don't have to incur additional costs with every single extra unit of product, and that's why it's so harsh for the German economy.

請記住，當你製造東西時，你有即時的固定成本，當你製造東西時，商品成本要比你銷售軟件時昂貴得多，因為在銷售軟件時，你不需要為每一個額外組織、部門的產品承擔額外成本，這就是為什麼這對德國經濟是如此苛刻的原因。

In fact, manufacturing is the backbone of the German economy, if anything happens to manufacturing, then the entire economy collapses, because this is for example the German economy, and at the heart of it is manufacturing, high tech, cars, planes, whatever, if this industry, which is the main industry, is going to suffer, every other industry that is linked to manufacturing is also going to suffer, and that's why you see so many bankruptcies in Germany, that's why you see a stagflation in Germany.

事實上，製造業是德國經濟的支柱，如果製造業出現任何問題，那麼整個經濟都會崩潰，因為以德國經濟為例，其核心就是製造業、高科技、汽車、飛機等，如果這個作為主要產業的行業受到影響，那麼其他所有與製造業相關的行業也都會受到影響，這就是為什麼你會在德國看到那麼多破產企業，這就是為什麼你會在德國看到滯脹。

In fact, the United States, once upon a time, was for example a manufacturing powerhouse as well, but the US economy has started moving into a tech-driven economy.

事實上，美國曾經也是製造業強國，但美國經濟已開始轉向科技驅動型經濟。

We also have China and India that are replacing the European Union because they have lower energy prices.

我們還有中國和印度，它們正在取代歐盟，因為它們的能源價格更低。

So imagine the same thing is being manufactured in China and Germany.

是以，想象一下，同樣的東西在中國和德國生產。

First of all, China has a cheaper labor cost than Germany, secondly, China is massively buying Russian oil and gas at a fraction of the price than the European Union and getting huge discounts.

首先，中國的勞動力成本比德國便宜；其次，中國以低於歐盟的價格大量購買俄羅斯的石油和天然氣，並獲得巨大折扣。

Now where do you think it's much more affordable to produce things?

你認為在哪裡生產東西更實惠？

In Germany, where energy prices are so high, or in India and China.

在能源價格如此之高的德國，或者在印度和中國。

And Chinese quality over the last 20 years has risen so much that in some cases they are even better than Germany, of course not in all of them.

在過去的 20 年裡，中國的產品質量有了很大的提高，在某些情況下甚至比德國還要好，當然這並不是全部。

This is probably the biggest failure of Germany over the last 70 years.

這可能是德國在過去 70 年裡最大的失敗。

German engineering has been an atalant of success.

A German car is literally just an engineering excellence.

德國汽車簡直就是卓越的工程技術。

If you pick up a BMW or a Mercedes, it is far better than Tesla or any other car.

如果你買的是寶馬或奔馳，那麼它比特斯拉或其他任何汽車都要好得多。

However, manufacturing is a very competitive industry.

然而，製造業是一個競爭非常激烈的行業。

Other countries have emerged, such as India and China.

其他國家也已崛起，如印度和中國。

And now they are also manufacturing things.

And it's much easier to manufacture things than get into a tech-driven economy than produce, for example, software companies.

製造東西比進入技術驅動型經濟要容易得多，而不是生產，例如軟件公司。

And that's why 20 years ago, you would see BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes at the top of the list.

這就是為什麼 20 年前，寶馬、大眾和奔馳會名列前茅。

And now German companies have been moved away and the list is dominated by Tesla and Chinese companies such as Xiaomi and BYD.

而現在，德國公司已被移除，特斯拉和小米、比亞迪等中國公司佔據了榜單。

And probably in 10 years from now, these three companies will even lose their position in the top 10 largest companies.

也許 10 年後，這三家公司甚至會失去它們在十大公司中的地位。

And Germany, for example, it should have moved into a tech-driven economy, just like the United States.

以德國為例，它本應像美國一樣進入科技驅動型經濟。

It was a manufacturing powerhouse and then we realized that with internet and software, we can become more efficient, we can become more productive.

它曾是製造業強國，後來我們意識到，有了互聯網和軟件，我們可以變得更有效率，更有生產力。

That's why, for example, if you look at the top 10 largest companies in the United States in the 1990s, you would see Accent Mobile and other manufacturing companies.

這就是為什麼，舉例來說，如果你看一下 20 世紀 90 年代美國最大的 10 家公司，你會看到 Accent Mobile 和其他製造公司。

Today, the top 10 largest companies are tech companies, Nvidia that designs chips, Apple, yes, it also manufactures iPhones, but it's mostly a software company.

如今，排名前十的大公司都是科技公司，Nvidia 是設計芯片的公司，蘋果公司是的，它也生產 iPhone，但它主要是一家軟件公司。

Then you have Meta, Google, and so on and so forth.

And Germany should have done the exact same thing over the last 20 years.

德國在過去 20 年裡也應該做同樣的事情。

I mean, just name me a single German tech company, you can't possibly do that.

我的意思是，只要說出一家德國科技公司，你就不可能做到這一點。

There might be a few of them, but they don't have a serious global presence.

也許有一些這樣的公司，但它們在全球範圍內的影響力並不大。

And that's why, when China and India came out and they started manufacturing things, they started competing with Germany.

這就是為什麼當中國和印度出現並開始製造東西時，他們開始與德國競爭。

And now Germany has to compete in manufacturing because it did not build or it did not use its prior resources to build its tech sector.

而現在，德國不得不在製造業領域進行競爭，因為它沒有建設或沒有利用先前的資源來建設自己的科技部門。

In fact, building a tech company in the European Union and especially in Germany is so insanely difficult.

事實上，在歐盟，尤其是在德國，建立一家科技公司難上加難。

They did not build the infrastructure to attract talent, so it's entirely the fault of the German government.

他們沒有建設吸引人才的基礎設施，所以這完全是德國政府的錯。