Name: 法國經濟正在崩潰--德國能否拯救法國？ (再次) (France’s Economy is Collapsing - Will Germany save France? (again))
Uploaded: 2025-09-18T17:51:47.000Z
Duration: 11 min 59 s

現在進行式

to 不定詞

The situation is so bad that the French prime minister has stepped down to force the government to take action before it's too late.

情況非常糟糕，法國總理已經下臺，以迫使政府在為時已晚之前採取行動。

未來簡單式

And if you think that I am exaggerating, just give it a closer look and you will find out that the situation is way worse than you can possibly imagine.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，只要仔細看看，你就會發現情況比你想象的還要糟糕。

And if the French economy is going to collapse, it is going to check with the entire European Union because France is the second largest European country.

如果法國經濟崩潰，整個歐盟都會受到影響，因為法國是歐洲第二大國。

And the only country that can save France is Germany, but it's going to cost a lot of money for Germany.

唯一能拯救法國的國家是德國，但德國要付出很大代價。

Over the last 50 years, the French economy has been running a persistent deficit every single year. 20 years ago, it wasn't a big deal because the deficit was about 3 to 4 percent.

在過去的 50 年裡，法國經濟每年都出現持續赤字。20 年前，這還不算什麼，因為赤字率約為 3%至 4%。

However, since then, it has been growing tremendously, and a 6 percent deficit rate became the new normal for the French economy.

然而，從那時起，法國經濟開始大幅增長，6%的赤字率成為法國經濟的新常態。

That is something that the French economy cannot possibly afford.

And looking at all the estimates for future years, it seems like it is only going to grow, and the lowest estimate is about 6.5 to 7 percent.

從對未來幾年的所有估計來看，似乎只會增長，最低估計約為 6.5%至 7%。

This year alone, the interest payments on the French debt will be 67 billion dollars.

僅今年一年，法國債務的利息支出就將達到 670 億美元。

Yes, if you compare that to the United States, that's peanuts, that's something the United States can spend in a single day.

是的，如果與美國相比，這簡直是小巫見大巫，美國一天就能花掉這麼多錢。

But remember, France is not the United States, the French GDP is a fraction of the US economy, so for France, that's a lot of money.

但請記住，法國不是美國，法國的國內生產總值只是美國經濟的一小部分，是以對法國來說，這是一筆不小的數目。

The real problem is that the era of low interest rates is over.

真正的問題在於，低利率時代已經過去。

If you give it a closer look, you will find out that most of that French debt was actually borrowed when interest rates were extremely low all across the globe, especially in the European Union.

如果你仔細研究一下，就會發現法國的大部分債務其實是在全球，尤其是歐盟利率極低的時候借來的。

There were periods where the interest rates of the European Central Bank were negative, so France could borrow so much money that it can't possibly want it.

有一段時間，歐洲中央銀行的利率是負的，所以法國可以借到很多錢，不可能不要。

However, if France had paid off that debt on time, it wouldn't be a problem, but that debt kept accumulating and accumulating and accumulating.

然而，如果法國按時償還債務，這就不是問題，但債務卻在不斷累積、累積、再累積。

And now we have entered a new era of high interest rates.

現在，我們已經進入了一個高利率的新時代。

That is exactly what the Federal Reserve said.

At Jackson Hole, the chairman of the Fed, Jay Paul said that, from now onwards, the entire world is entering the era of high interest rates.

在傑克遜霍爾，美聯儲主席傑伊-保羅說，從現在起，整個世界都將進入高利率時代。

So now you have to refinance that debt at a higher interest rate, which you cannot possibly afford.

是以，你現在必須以更高的利率為這筆債務再融資，而這是你不可能負擔得起的。

So based on different estimates, the interest payments on the French debt by 2030, which is a couple of years from now, will cross 130 to 160 billion dollars.

是以，根據不同的估計，到 2030 年，也就是幾年後，法國債務的利息支出將超過 1 300 億至 1 600 億美元。

That's a lot of money, that's the kind of money that the French government, based on their current economy, cannot possibly afford.

這是一大筆錢，以法國目前的經濟狀況，法國政府不可能負擔得起這筆錢。

And remember, France is not actually developing technologies, like the United States or China.

請記住，法國實際上並不像美國或中國那樣在開發技術。

France is not the center of artificial intelligence.

France is not developing the next chat GPT or Oracle or Amazon.

法國不是在開發下一個哈拉 GPT，也不是在開發甲骨文或亞馬遜。

So France cannot possibly afford that, unless France is going to take real serious measures today and will either start growing its economy drastically or will actually increase taxes.

是以，法國不可能負擔得起，除非法國今天採取真正嚴肅的措施，要麼開始大幅增長經濟，要麼真正增加稅收。

I am not sure how much more you can increase taxes.

The entire European Union is heavily taxed.

So probably the only option to deregulate the entire European Union so that finally startups will have a room to breathe and finally some kind of AI companies will come out of the European Union, especially from France.

是以，唯一的選擇可能是放鬆對整個歐盟的管制，這樣初創企業最終會有喘息的空間，最終會有一些人工智能公司走出歐盟，尤其是法國。

Another problem with that debt is that it is mostly held by public investors.

這些債務的另一個問題是，它們大多由公共投資者持有。

It's not being held by the French institutions or by the European Central Bank, but rather by private investors.

它不是由法國機構或歐洲中央銀行持有，而是由私人投資者持有。

So France has no other option but to continue paying off interest on those debts.

是以，法國別無選擇，只能繼續償還這些債務的利息。

Otherwise, investors will no longer trust France and they will no longer loan their money to France and France will fall behind.

否則，投資者將不再信任法國，不再把錢借給法國，法國就會落後。

Imagine France, one of the most powerful countries in the world, defaulting on its loans.

試想，法國作為世界上最強大的國家之一，卻拖欠貸款。

France is turning into the second Greece.

You see, for a very long time, Greek economy has also been running a persistent inflation.

要知道，長期以來，希臘經濟也一直處於持續通脹狀態。

Right before the 2008, that's exactly where Greece was where France is today.

就在 2008 年之前，希臘正是法國今天的位置。

After years of borrowing money, Greek found itself in a position where it could not possibly pay off its debts and it was about to default on its loan.

經過多年的借貸，希臘發現自己已無力償還債務，眼看就要拖欠貸款。

But remember, the entire European Union, all of them or most of them use the exact same currency, Euro.

但請記住，整個歐盟，所有歐盟國家或大多數歐盟國家都使用完全相同的貨幣--歐元。

So if Greece is going to default on its loans, then it will drag down with it the entire European Union.

是以，如果希臘拖欠貸款，那麼它將拖累整個歐盟。

So Germany had to step in and provide Greece with hundreds of billions of euros to save it to prevent the entire European Union to collapse.

是以，德國不得不出面，向希臘提供數千億歐元來拯救它，以防止整個歐盟崩潰。

Since then, the Greek economy hasn't been growing for the next 10 years.

此後 10 年，希臘經濟一直沒有增長。

There was literally a stagflation of the entire GDP.

整個國內生產總值簡直出現了滯脹。

Finally, you can see that, since 2020, Greek GDP is growing tremendously.

最後，您可以看到，自 2020 年以來，希臘國內生產總值大幅增長。

So if your debt stays the same, while your GDP is growing, then suddenly your debt in relation to your GDP is falling down.

是以，如果你的債務保持不變，而 GDP 卻在增長，那麼你的債務相對於 GDP 的比例就會突然下降。

They have hiked their interest rates, they have been much more stricter with their spending, so they regained the trust of investors and that's the way the interest payments on their debt has been going down.

他們提高了利率，更加嚴格地控制支出，是以重新贏得了投資者的信任，債務利息支出也是以不斷下降。

You borrow a lot of money at very low interest rates and when the time of refinancing that debt comes and the interest rates are extremely high, that's where the real problem comes.

你以很低的利率借了很多錢，當你要為這些債務再融資時，利率卻非常高，這才是真正的問題所在。

Imagine you are actually making good money and interest rates are very low.

試想一下，你實際上賺了很多錢，而且利率很低。

So the bank convinces you to borrow as much money as you want.

於是，銀行說服你想借多少錢就借多少錢。

So you borrow all of that money because the interest payments of them are just 1% which you can afford.

所以，你借了所有的錢，因為利息支出只有 1%，你可以負擔得起。

If you pay that debt on time, it's not a problem.

如果你按時償還債務，那就不是問題。

But then 10 years later, when interest rates are extremely high and you haven't paid that, you have to refinance that debt at the current interest rate which you cannot possibly afford and that's when you declare a bankruptcy.

但 10 年後，當利率極高時，你還沒有還清債務，就不得不以你不可能負擔得起的當前利率對債務進行再融資，這時你就會宣佈破產。

So the real question comes at the end of the day, will Germany actually save France?

是以，真正的問題是，德國能否拯救法國？

You see, the difference between Greece and France is that the Greek GDP was about 250 billion dollars, while the French GDP is about 3 trillion dollars.

你看，希臘和法國的區別在於，希臘的國內生產總值約為 2500 億美元，而法國的國內生產總值約為 3 萬億美元。

So it was so difficult to save the Greek economy that is literally a fraction of the French economy.

是以，要拯救希臘經濟實在是太難了，而希臘經濟只是法國經濟的一小部分。

Imagine for a moment how difficult it is, it is going to be to save the French economy.

試想一下，拯救法國經濟有多麼困難。

And if you look at the entire European Union, Germany is the largest, then France is the second largest.

放眼整個歐盟，德國是最大的國家，法國是第二大國家。

So if France falls down, I don't think there will be any kind of European Union.

是以，如果法國倒臺，我不認為還會有什麼歐盟。

So the question comes at the end of the day, how strongly Germany loves the entire European Union.

是以，問題的關鍵在於，德國對整個歐盟的熱愛到底有多深。

Now to understand the problem, you have to understand how the European economy works.

現在要了解這個問題，就必須瞭解歐洲經濟是如何運作的。

So you have the European central bank that creates the Euro.

And then you have multiple European countries such as France, Germany, and Italy that use the exact same currency.

此外，法國、德國和意大利等多個歐洲國家使用完全相同的貨幣。

Now these countries, when they want to issue debt, they have to create government bonds and sell them in the open market.

現在，這些國家要發行債務，就必鬚髮行政府債券，並在公開市場上出售。

And all of them issue the government bonds in a single currency, which is the European Euro.

所有這些國家都以單一貨幣（即歐洲歐元）發行政府債券。

And then you have investors on the other side who are buying these government bonds from these countries.

而另一邊的投資者則在購買這些國家的政府債券。

So if you have a very strong economy, if you are very responsible, then investors would actually accept a lower interest rate.

是以，如果你的經濟非常強勁，如果你非常負責任，那麼投資者實際上會接受較低的利率。

But if you are irresponsible like Greece was before the 2008 or around 2008, then you are going to demand a very high interest rate.

但如果你像希臘在 2008 年之前或 2008 年前後那樣不負責任，那麼你就會要求很高的利率。

Now France in that position where it can barely afford the interest payments on its debts.

現在，法國幾乎無力償還債務利息。

那麼，我們怎樣才能拯救法國呢？

You see, in normal economies where you have one country and one central bank, the central bank will intervene and will start creating money and will be buying the government bonds, which is going to lower the interest rates on those government bonds, which is going to help the government to avoid a bankruptcy.

你看，在正常的經濟體中，只有一個國家和一家中央銀行，中央銀行會進行干預，開始創造貨幣，購買政府債券，從而降低政府債券的利率，幫助政府避免破產。

When Japanese government borrowed so much money, the Japanese central bank intervened and started buying all of these government bonds.

當日本政府借了這麼多錢後，日本央行進行了干預，開始購買所有這些政府債券。

And that's why even though Japan has one of the highest debt to GDP ratio, about 60% of that debt is being held by the Bank of Japan.

這就是為什麼儘管日本的債務與 GDP 之比最高，但其中約 60% 的債務由日本銀行持有。

But every time the central bank is creating money, the value of the currency is falling down.

但每當中央銀行創造貨幣時，貨幣的價值就會下降。

So in this case, if the European central bank will actually start creating euros and will start buying the French government bonds, it is going to create a lot of euros, which is going to devalue the dollar, which is going to make the German economy weaker and is going to make the Italian economy weaker and is going to make every other European economy weaker.

是以，在這種情況下，如果歐洲央行真的開始創造歐元，開始購買法國國債，就會創造出大量歐元，從而使美元貶值，使德國經濟疲軟，使意大利經濟疲軟，使其他所有歐洲經濟體疲軟。

So the only way to approve that is for Germany, which is the largest economy, to approve this by the European Union.

是以，只有作為最大經濟體的德國準許，歐盟才能準許。

That is artificial demand for the French government bonds.

這是對法國政府債券的人為需求。

Italy is going to say, we also have a lot of debt.

意大利會說，我們也有很多債務。

Why is the European central bank is subsidizing the French debt and isn't subsidizing the Italian debt?

為什麼歐洲央行在補貼法國的債務，而沒有補貼意大利的債務？

So how about the European central bank to also create money and create artificial demand for the Italian government bonds so that Italy will pay a lower interest payment?

那麼，歐洲央行也來創造貨幣，人為地製造對意大利國債的需求，讓意大利支付更低的利息，如何？

Do you see, it instantly creates a problem for the entire European Union.

你看，這立即給整個歐盟帶來了問題。

Which leaves us with the second option, and that is Germany stepping in and using its national budget to buy the government bonds on France and create artificial demand to bring the rates down to make it possible for the French government to make its government bond payments and avoid a default.

這就給我們留下了第二個選擇，即德國介入，利用其國家預算購買法國的政府債券，製造人為需求，降低利率，使法國政府能夠支付政府債券，避免違約。

In that case, other European countries cannot possibly say anything to Germany because Germany is using taxpayers money to finance or create artificial demand for the French economy and for the French government bonds.

在這種情況下，其他歐洲國家不可能對德國說什麼，因為德國正在用納稅人的錢為法國經濟和法國國債提供資金或製造人為需求。

But it's going to cost the German economy or the German budget hundreds of billions of dollars.

但這將給德國經濟或德國預算帶來數千億美元的損失。

The real question comes at the end of the day, can Germany afford that?

真正的問題是，德國能否承受得起？

Germany is actually a very strong economy and they are an industrial powerhouse.

德國實際上是一個非常強大的經濟體，是一個工業強國。

In fact, they have one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio and have been very disciplined with their spending.

事實上，他們是債務與國內生產總值比率最低的國家之一，而且在支出方面非常有節制。

Their debt-to-GDP ratio is 62 percent, which is probably the lowest in the entire European Union.

他們的債務與國內生產總值的比率為 62%，可能是整個歐盟中最低的。

But since 2022, the German economy has been suffering.

但自 2022 年以來，德國經濟一直處於困境之中。

Almost every single quarter was a negative quarter.

Which means that over the last 3 years, it has been going through a persistent recession.

這意味著，在過去 3 年裡，它一直在經歷持續的衰退。

And when you have a persistent recession, we can simply call it a depression.

當經濟持續衰退時，我們可以簡單地稱之為蕭條。

And that's why the unemployment has been growing from about 5.5 percent to 6.3 percent.

這就是失業率從 5.5%上升到 6.3%的原因。

If you compare it to the United States unemployment rate of 4.3 percent, that's when you know that Germany is going through a disaster.

如果與美國 4.3% 的失業率相比，你就會知道德國正在經歷一場災難。

And it doesn't seem like it is going to be solved anytime soon.

而且這個問題似乎不會很快得到解決。

Because with each consecutive quarter, the situation is getting worse and worse.

因為每個季度的情況都在不斷惡化。