Name: 21 點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？ 前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ 臺灣 (21點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ Taiwan)
Uploaded: 2025-09-02T17:00:55.000Z
Duration: 14 min 4 s

I'm Yu-Chan Lee, professional blackjack player and a former member of the MIT card counting team.

我是李雨嬋，21 點職業玩家，曾是麻省理工學院算牌小組成員。

I'm here to answer your question from Twitter.

我來回答您在 Twitter 上提出的問題。

If you don't have any skills, the best odds is by far Baccarat.

如果您沒有任何技能，目前賠率最高的是百家樂。

You will lose about 50 cents for every $100 you put out.

每投入 100 美元，您將損失約 50 美分。

If you play for a long time, you still lose money.

It's still the least amount of money you can lose if you have no skills.

如果你沒有技術，這仍然是你能損失的最少的錢。

The best game out there, if you do have skill,

如果你有技術，這是最好的遊戲、

If you are a regular player, you walk into a casino, you'll lose somewhere around $1.50 to $3 per $100 that you bet.

如果你是一名普通玩家，你走進賭場，每下注 100 美元，大約會輸掉 1.5 美元到 3 美元。

If you are professional blackjack players, you will be able to win $1.50 to $3 from the casino the other way around.

如果您是專業的 21 點玩家，您將能從賭場贏取 1.5 美元到 3 美元不等的獎金。

From ReactGPT, what is the worst casino game in terms of odds?

從 ReactGPT 來看，賠率最差的賭場遊戲是什麼？

There's no question the worst game in a casino are the slot machines.

毫無疑問，賭場裡最糟糕的遊戲是老虎機。

Odds range of anywhere between 80% to 99% payout.

That means when you put $100 in, you may only get $80 out or $99 out.

也就是說，當你投入 100 美元時，你可能只能得到 80 美元或 99 美元。

Can casino kick you out for winning too much?

贏錢太多，賭場會把你踢出去嗎？

Most of the casino don't kick you out for winning because they believe the law of large number will eventually help the casino win back any money that you've won in the short period of time.

大多數賭場不會因為你贏了錢就把你趕出去，因為他們相信大數法則最終會幫助賭場贏回你在短時間內贏的錢。

This is the concept that in statistics, no matter how random something is, when you do a lot of these random events together, at some point, there is a norm that comes out.

這就是統計學中的一個概念：無論事情有多麼隨機，當你把許多隨機事件放在一起做時，在某一點上，就會出現一種常態。

However, if a casino found out you are a professional and you have an edge over the casino, the only law on the book that a casino can kick a player out is through the trespass law.

但是，如果賭場發現你是職業玩家，而且你比賭場更有優勢，那麼賭場可以踢走玩家的唯一法律就是非法入侵法。

And in fact, they have to, otherwise they will go bankrupt.

事實上，他們必須這樣做，否則就會破產。

NighthawkKZ, how is the house edge calculated?

NighthawkKZ，如何計算賭注邊際？

And the way they do this is through what's called a Monte Carlo simulations.

他們這樣做的方法就是所謂的蒙特卡羅模擬。

You simulate millions and millions of these hands.

And based on a simulation and the outcome, you can compute what the expected win or losses.

根據模擬和結果，你可以計算出預期的輸贏。

This is how a professional blackjack team figured out what is the optimal hand to play.

專業 21 點團隊就是這樣找出最佳牌型的。

To Bob Squirt, getting no luck at all in the roulette, is there a trick to it?

鮑勃-斯奎特在輪盤賭中運氣全無，有什麼訣竅嗎？

Unfortunately, there's no way to win in a roulette as is.

不幸的是，輪盤賭是無法贏錢的。

And part of the reason is you can bet red or black.

部分原因是你可以賭紅或賭黑。

If it lands in these greens, you'll basically lose.

如果它落在這些綠地上，你基本上就輸了。

The reason the casino have an edge over the player in a roulette is are these two green numbers here.

在輪盤賭中，賭場比玩家佔優勢的原因就在於這兩個綠色數字。

There is, however, a way to win in a roulette.

不過，輪盤賭也有贏錢的方法。

And that happens when you step into a very old, not well maintained casino where the roulette wheel itself is not balanced.

當你走進一家非常老舊、維護不善的賭場時，就會出現這種情況，因為那裡的輪盤本身就不平衡。

When it's not balanced, there are parts of the wheel that get less probable of a chance of landing the ball in the slots along that area.

如果不平衡，車輪的某些部分就會降低小球落在該區域槽內的機率。

And you observe that over a long period of time, you can actually beat the casino by just eliminating as little as two to three numbers.

你可以觀察到，在很長一段時間內，你只需消除兩到三個數字，就能戰勝賭場。

Casino bloke, what are the odds of winning slot machines?

賭場老闆，老虎機的中獎率是多少？

老虎機的波動性是如何產生的？

In some states, the range to which is legally allowed for the casino to set the dial could be as low as 80% and as high as 99%.

在某些州，法律允許賭場設置轉盤的範圍可低至 80%，高至 99%。

That means for every $100 you bet, the casino goes set it so that you will win back only $80 out of it.

這意味著，您每下注 100 美元，賭場就會設定您只能從中贏回 80 美元。

So slot machines has a dial that casino can tweak and create the odds that they want for their business.

是以，老虎機有一個轉盤，賭場可以對其進行調整，創造出他們想要的賠率。

It requires a whole committee to come down and agree on this is what they need to do.

這需要整個委員會下來，就他們需要做的事情達成一致。

But in a more sort of off-strip shady casino, we have heard a story from insiders that busy Super Bowl nights or whatnot, they literally crank up this so they can make more money.

但在一家更偏僻的黑賭場裡，我們從內部人士那裡聽說，在繁忙的超級碗之夜或其他什麼時候，他們真的會把這個節目開得很大，這樣他們就能賺更多的錢。

They ignore a few statistical concepts like expected value, hot hand fallacy, probability in general.

他們忽略了一些統計學概念，如預期值、熱手謬誤和一般概率。

Think of expected value as the mathematical truth of how much money you are winning on losing.

把預期值看成是你輸多少錢贏多少錢的數學真理。

Most of the player in the casino, most of the game, you have a negative expected value.

賭場裡的大部分玩家，大部分遊戲，你的預期值都是負數。

That means over time, law of large number will take over and you will lose money.

這意味著隨著時間的推移，大數法則將佔據上風，你將會虧損。

Hot hand fallacy is the concept of streaks.

A lot of players, when they set a table, they keep winning.

很多球員在擺好桌子後，就會一直贏下去。

當他們獲勝的時候，他們會說：

When in reality, every hand is completely independent.

而實際上，每一手牌都是完全獨立的。

But randomly, over a short period of time, you could have lots of winning hands one after another.

但隨機地，在很短的時間內，你可能會接二連三地贏很多手牌。

And again, the concept of all of these is rooted in the math of probability.

同樣，所有這些概念都源於概率數學。

The law of large number eventually takes over.

The expected win or lose eventually play out.

There's actually a perfect way to play your hand.

And the perfect way is that based on the cards you have in front of you against the face up card from the dealer.

而最完美的方法就是根據你面前的牌和莊家的正面朝上的牌進行對比。

There's a mathematical way that pair in these wins.

在這些勝利中，有一種數學方法可以配對。

And I have here a pretty standard, what's called a basic strategy chart.

我這裡有一張非常標準的基本策略圖表。

Because you can Google these and find a lot of variations of it.

因為你可以在谷歌上搜索這些內容，找到很多不同的變體。

And by the way, there's small variations of these.

順便說一句，這些都有一些小變化。

Depends on different casinos, different rules they have.

這取決於不同的賭場，它們有不同的規則。

But if you don't know how to count cards, and you memorize what to do with each hand against every single combination of the dealer's hand, you will minimize your loss in blackjack down to around 60 cents per $100.

但是，如果你不知道如何算牌，並且記住了每一手牌該如何對付莊家的每一種牌型組合，那麼你就能將 21 點的損失降到每 100 美元 60 美分左右。

Rtut Chris, I'm not gonna ask how to do it, but how does card counting work?

克里斯，我不想問你怎麼做，但算牌是如何進行的？

The principle of card counting is really around tracking how much face cards and aces are left.

算牌的原理其實就是追蹤面牌和 A 還剩多少。

And the rationale is that when there are more aces, there's a higher chance of either the player or the dealer hitting blackjack.

其理由是，當 A 更多的時候，玩家或莊家擊中 21 點的機率就更大。

Except in most casinos, if the player hit blackjack, they get paid a time and a half.

但在大多數賭場，如果玩家擊中 21 點，他們就能獲得一次半的報酬。

When the dealer hit blackjack, they just get your money, right?

當莊家擊中二十一點時，他們就會拿走你的錢，對嗎？

So because you have that time and a half advantage, when there's higher odds to hit blackjack, player has an edge, that's one.

所以，因為你有時間半的優勢，當擊中 21 點的機率較高時，玩家就會有優勢，這是其一。

And two, the rule of blackjack, the dealer has to hit their hand until 17.

第二，21 點的規則是，莊家必須在 17 點之前擊出自己的牌。

When there's a lot of face cards left in the shoe, the dealer will bust more often.

當鞋中剩下很多面牌時，莊家就會經常爆牌。

ADS69, why do casinos kick you out when you do card counting?

ADS69，為什麼賭場會在你算牌時把你趕出去？

We're using our brain, that's why it's completely legal.

我們在用腦，所以這完全合法。

In the state of New Jersey, casinos are not allowed to kick players out.

在新澤西州，賭場不得將玩家趕出賭場。

So they have other means of ruining the game for us.

是以，他們還有其他手段來破壞我們的比賽。

So for example, in the game of blackjack, they will put the cut cards way up in the front so that you basically cannot possibly count and win.

例如，在二十一點遊戲中，他們會把切牌放在最前面，這樣你基本上就不可能算牌贏錢。

Some casino, we use what's called continuous shuffle machine, where they have a machine that shuffle the card continuously.

在一些賭場，我們使用所謂的連續洗牌機，他們有一臺連續洗牌的機器。

In those situation, there's really no way you can beat the casino.

在這種情況下，你真的沒有辦法戰勝賭場。

Trading sumo one, why do casinos have table limits if the odds are in their favor?

交易相撲一，如果賠率對賭場有利，為什麼賭場還要限制賭桌？

Table limits are set up to bust a particular type of algorithm called the martingale algorithm.

設置表極限是為了破解一種特殊的算法，稱為馬丁格爾算法。

I'm gonna take the dollar I win and re-bet a dollar.

我要把我贏的那一塊錢再押一塊錢。

But if I lose a hand, I'm gonna double my bet.

但如果我輸了一把，我會加倍下注。

If I stack away the wins I have and for every hand I lose, I double, eventually the streak of losing will break.

如果我把贏的錢堆起來，每輸一手牌就加倍，最終連輸的局面就會打破。

Otherwise, if you have a lot of money, if I'm a billionaire, I can go to a casino and just use that algorithm and I can make money.

否則，如果你有很多錢，如果我是億萬富翁，我可以去賭場，只需使用這種算法，我就能賺錢。

字幕列表影片播放

21 點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ 臺灣 (21點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ Taiwan)

eventually

strategy

situation

period

21 點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？ 前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ 臺灣 (21點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ Taiwan)

eventually

strategy

situation

period

21 點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ 臺灣 (21點算牌是作弊嗎？賭場裡穩賠的遊戲是哪種？前麻省理工賭團成員回答賭場問題｜名人專業問答｜GQ Taiwan)